Tuesday October 19 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 19-23)

We will remain in a cool northwesterly air flow today between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure southwest of New England, but this time we will have fewer clouds than yesterday and no threat of rain showers, just fair autumn weather. The fair weather will continue Wednesday and after a cool start you’ll notice a nice temperature moderation as the wind turns more westerly and the coolest air exits. As high pressure slips off the Middle Atlantic Coast, low pressure begins a trek from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and its warm front will cross the region early Thursday putting us into an even warmer air mass that day, before its cold front crosses the region during Friday. Both of these fronts present minor rain threats. The latter will deliver a new cool air mass to the region starting later Friday, but it may hang near the coast or just offshore for a while to start the weekend, and a wave of low pressure moving along it may bring some additional wet weather to start the weekend. I am not expecting this to be a long lasting or heavy rain event, and it may stay offshore.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost possible interior lower elevations. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Patchy ground fog interior low elevations. Lows 41-48. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with brief light rain possible. Partly to mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers, mainly during the morning. Highs 60-67. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain in the morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 55-62. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A northerly air flow transports chilly air across the region October 24 and upper level low pressure brings some clouds but any rain shower chance seems small with mostly a dry and blustery autumn day to end the weekend. High pressure is expected to bring fair weather October 25-26, cool to start, then moderating temperatures. The high slips off to the east and the next low pressure area moves through the Great Lakes and into southeastern Canada later in the period with milder air here and eventually a rain shower threat as a a frontal system approaches.


Continued uncertainty regarding the pattern evolution. Guidance continues to be split between a blocking set-up with high pressure in eastern Canada and low pressure over or just south of the US Northeast States and an alternate scenario which continues a more progressive west to east flow pattern. For now I continue the idea of the westerly flow to start, and a slow evolution toward the blocking set-up. There should be at least one opportunity for unsettled weather, but it can also remain southwest and south of the region depending on the orientation of features.

24 thoughts on “Tuesday October 19 2021 Forecast (7:28AM)”

        1. Actually, that link does show it. It’s not in your screenshot, but over to the right, they report the high and low for the past 6 hours at 6/12/18/0z.

  1. Thanks TK.

    It appears from now on that many overnights will be in the 40s as opposed to 50s to low/mid 60s. No more nights sleeping with windows open, no cover and fan blowing. Crank up the heat, to take off the chill, if nothing else.

    Also, let’s hope the fall tree colors get going in the coming weeks. Will some of us still be raking well into December? Most trees look the same green as they have all summer.

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Philip, you make a good point about raking leaves, though nowadays it’s the damn leaf-blowers (Oh, I detest those machines) that do all the leaf moving. Nary a leaf has fallen to the ground here in Back Bay, and it’s October 19th. That’s not just 10 days late. That’s 20 days late. By late September there are more little leaf piles around my building than there are now.

    1. I forgot about leaf blowers. The art of raking leaves is probably pretty much passé. Even shoveling snow is becoming a lost art as well. I used a snow blower once many years ago and never touched it again. Been shoveling ever since. For the biggies, I rely on my snow blower neighbors, or just shovel a path as best I can.

      1. My brother had multiple neighbor clients. He bought an Ariens when he was 16 (1968). His son still uses that same snow blower. We had it for years. While Mac tried to start it, I’d shovel almost the entire driveway. I’m with you on shoveling. I miss being able to shovel. My son in law shovels; but after several feet storms last year, bought a snowblower. He hasn’t used it yet.

    2. It has late for better than a decade. I mentioned last year or year before that Mac’s Brookline cousin works with a group that tracks foliage, etc. Each individual tracks the same group of trees.

      If you looked at my pic of the rainbow yesterday, you saw very little color on the hill lining our neighborhood. And frankly, this year, we are a a bit earlier than last.

      The seasons have shifted

      1. I’ve noticed a big difference between here and there.

        We were over 10 days earlier with color just last year up here. My pictures are stunningly different when comparing the same dates from 2020 to 2021.

        1. I think a few areas may be closer to what was. Mac’s cousins group is in Boston area. It is based on a well monitored and detailed study going back many years. I posted the info here a year or maybe two ago. I can’t find where I stored it (no surprise) Before we moved in early 2016, framingham had already pushed its last leaf collections out two weeks.

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