Sunday October 24 2021 Forecast (8:24AM)

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 24-28)

A perfect overnight for radiational cooling resulted in frost for many areas away from the coast. Even though low temperatures were above freezing in some areas that got frost, this occurs because the thermometer sensor is at a location about 5 feet above the ground where right at the ground it can be up to a few or even several degrees colder. For example, my low temperature here was 38, but there is frost on a car in a lower part of the adjacent property, away from any buildings. Despite the chilly start, we do recover today with lots of sun pushing temperatures back to the 50s to around 60, though you’ll notice the sun fading as we get later into the day. This marks a change in the pattern for the coming week. We’ll see the development of a Rex block, with high pressure to the north, in this case centered over eastern Canada, especially Quebec, and upper level low pressure to its south. This is going to allow the first of two low pressure areas to impact our region over a drawn-out stretch of time, beginning with an initial band of rain ahead of a warm front arriving late tonight into Monday morning before it pushes off to the north. The warm front will never make it through the region, becoming stationary and staying to the south. Its parent surface low will be forced east southeastward and start to weaken as a redevelopment of it takes place in the waters south of New England. Due to the atmospheric block and orientation of upper level low pressure, this system will have an opportunity to strengthen and max out in intensity while doing a loop just to the south of New England, allowing it to produce a significant rain and wind event for southern New England Monday night through Tuesday night and very early Wednesday, before it finally pulls away to the southeast. At this time, a nosing down of high pressure from eastern Canada will provide drier weather later Wednesday into Thursday, although we will likely not see complete clearing during this time.

TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 56-63. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain arriving overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind calm evening then NE up to 10 MPH overnight.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain tapering off during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain returns. Areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast with rain and areas of fog. Highs 48-55. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain and areas of fog. Lows 41-48. Wind NE 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 50-57. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

Rex block pattern stays in place at least for the last few days of October, but may give enough so that the next low pressure area instead of being forced to take a more easterly track to the south of the region will cut more across New England. This low will impact our region with a rain threat as early as the night of October 29 and more likely during October 30 before pulling away with a more westerly air flow and just a few lingering showers for Halloween. Behind this we should get into a drier westerly air flow and seasonably cool weather for the first couple days of November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

As previously mentioned, the forecast confidence is not high this far out, even less so than typically. Current idea is for a more westerly air flow regionally but the larger scale pattern is still vulnerable to blocking, so we’ll have to watch for that. I like the idea of drier weather overall however, with seasonable temperatures though a bit variable with a brief but decent chilly shot of air possible somewhere during this time.

38 thoughts on “Sunday October 24 2021 Forecast (8:24AM)”

  1. Thank you, TK

    The alarm I didn’t set and didn’t want set went off on my AcuRite around 7:30. We hit 32 for about three minutes. Windshields are frozen as is the glass on the deck table. Not a lot of signs of frost on the lawn. But it’s a start and I’ll take it happily. West hill dam where you were yesterday also hit 32. Other areas around were in mid 30s.

    I can’t believe the replacement propane tank for my fire bowl is defective….arghhhhh

  2. Thanks TK.

    October’s bright blue weather! 🙂

    We could very well not see any more meaningful sun until sometime early next month. Very depressing.

  3. Could this upcoming setup be similar to October 1996? I remember when the Fenway was virtually underwater.

  4. I remember that event in 1996 as I had tickets to game one of the World Series at Yankee Stadium. The game got postponed to Sunday.

    1. A fair difference. One will have Captain raising a trampoline warning. One will not. Unless of course I am reading Incorrectly which is always possible

  5. Thanks TK.

    Overall, the 0z and 12z model runs are fairly high impact, but not as concerning as the runs last evening. This is mainly due to them keeping the low center a little further southeast and a little weaker. Given the time of year, our large scale “baroclinicity” (temperature gradients) remains fairly weak, so there’s reason to be skeptical about some of the very intense (<975mb) projections. There's also some question as to where the worst impacts will be. Eastern SNE looked like the bullseye yesterday, but some of today's trends bring the CT/NYC/NJ areas into play for the higher impacts.

    If the center of the low comes close enough, somewhere in the Northeast will see 4-8" of rain and several hours of 50-60+mph wind gusts. That would definitely be enough to cause problems. If the low center stays further offshore, impacts will be lesser.

  6. Oops. All on wrong blog. Please delete when you have time, TK. I’ll put where it belongs. Sincere apologies.

  7. For the second time, the Red Sox lost an opportunity to play the Braves in the WS.

    The first time was in 1948. The Sox lost a one-game playoff to the Cleveland Indians (at home). If they had won, it would have been a crosstown WS of Red Sox-Braves. Instead Cleveland beat the Boston Braves in 6 games.

    Not certain, but I don’t believe the Red Sox and Braves ever played each other while they were both in Boston.

  8. I think this October has been marvelous. A gem, really. Even if it rains all week – and it certainly will be gray all week – it still isn’t like 1996 or 2005. I coached soccer in 1996. We had 5 games scheduled for October and played a grand total of 1. Many practices were canceled, too. It was rainy every weekend. 2005 featured rain pretty much every other day. October 2021 just isn’t like that at all, even with a bad final week of the month. On the other hand, July 2021 was crummy, despite several beautiful days thrown in. The month was dismal most of the time.

    1. Since you have yet to declare a trampoline watch, May I assume it does not apply to the Sutton area 😉

  9. The next two weeks of commutes are among the darkest of the year. And, with the rains and thick clouds for most of this week, it will seem like 2 am at 6:30. Add the glare of the wet streets and possible deep puddles, I am not looking forward to the drive in.

    This year, Daylight Saving Time is extended to the last possible date that the calendar allows: November 7. The sunrise on Saturday, November 6 in Taunton is 7:22:01, the latest it ever is.

    Please be careful driving, everyone!

      1. It would be for the entire week and is probably too high.

        The first one is going to keep its heaviest rain to the south.

        The second one is going to end up weaker than progged.

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