15 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – October 29 2021”

    1. Very interesting. Quite a list. Many of the things on the list are what a good number feel are safe. I was interested in the reason to wear a mask when walking outdoors. Thanks JPD. I saved this.

  1. The most important indicator at this point in time is net hospitalizations. When I see them going up by 40-50% in some countries in Western Europe in a 7-10 day period, I pay attention.

    In the UK, hospitalizations have increased by nearly 50% in the past 3-4 weeks. Growth has diminished recently, but is still at 12-15% a week.

    So, while the next wave – underway across Europe – is not a massive one (nor was it expected to be) it is a definite resurgence. I expect this to begin occur here at some point in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

  2. Slow to react, but at least Eric Topol is finally realizing there’s a big problem brewing in Europe. And it ain’t just Eastern Europe, with low vaccination rates. This is not my area of expertise. How come I’ve been seeing this for about a month or so, and scientists whose job is to track this, aren’t seeing it ahead of time. I think part of it is I’m unencumbered by complex modeling or statistical indices I can’t fully understand anyway. I observe trends and report them, based on common sense and logic. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1454137651871711232

  3. Joshua, not being a wise guy or anything, but is this virus literally traveling “east-to-west” around the world like a jet stream in weather terms? Based on your posts, whatever happens (good or bad) Asia and Europe experiences it first before we in the U.S. do.

    1. Yes, except the jet stream in these parts is nearly always west to east.

      The initial cases came from Wuhan and traveled both east from Wuhan to the U.S. and other countries, and west from Wuhan to Europe. Then, once seeded across Europe, the virus traveled east to west, from Europe to the U.S. and elsewhere. Of course, with the Delta variant the virus again traveled east to west, first infecting the UK and Europe, then the US.

  4. Often a bellwether, California’s nadir (in the current Delta wave) in cases and hospitalizations was 10/12. In the past 7-10 days cases and hospitalizations have risen by about 10%. Test positivity is also up.

    1. Thanks, Joshua. Do you have any information of that by area? I know the Bay Area was very low when I spoke to Macs brother a week ago. But other areas of CA were not as low.

      1. Bay Area is still low. It’s done incredibly well throughout the entire pandemic. May be related to the trauma that HIV left behind in that area. I don’t know. Strong mitigation, consistent community efforts, lowest case/hospitalization/death counts in the nation for a large metropolitan area.

        The caseload is increasing in the Central Valley and pockets around San Diego and Los Angeles.

        1. Good to know. Macs brother (involved with the healthcare system) said the Bay Area …as large as MA…respects the virus and the mitigation steps. It is also more blue than other parts of the state that are not doing as well.

          1. Consistency has been remarkable. The Bay Area has been the least affected major metropolitan area in the country. Shows you what strong mitigation can do.

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