Dry, Snow, Dry, Rain

142 Comments

3:28AM

(Most of the following discussion is the same as the previous, with slight editing for time periods and the addition of a summary for Thursday  night’s snow.)

Weather roller coaster is the theme of now and the next several days.

The Thursday night mini snowstorm is gone after depositing 1 to 3 inches of snow. Some areas southwest of Boston (toward Providence RI) reported up to around 4 inches due to a very heavy burst of snow late in the evening.

During the day today, a gusty breeze but otherwise quiet and cold weather is expected. Not far behind is the next storm system which will pass south of New England on Saturday. Enough cold air will be around for snow, but amounts will be held down by the fast-moving nature of the system. This looks like a dawn to dusk event for the Boston area.

Another in-between day is expected Sunday with quiet weather. Temperatures for the Patriots/Ravens playoff game at 3PM should be in the middle to lower 30s with a slow fall expected during the game. Winds should be on the light side from the north and for now I am going to leave the threat of any precipitation out of the forecast.

The next storm will arrive Monday, and cold air trapped at the surface may mean a little additional icing inland as it begins to rain due to warmer air coming in above us all. This warm air will win out and a milder, wet day will result. The parent low pressure area should pass northwest of New England by early Tuesday and we should see southwest to west winds sweeping into southern New England with mild air and a few rain showers. Cooler air will eventually move in, but it will be a slow process, leading to a dry and chilly day for Wednesday of next week. The next threat of unsettled weather follows later in the week, and to be honest that’s so far away that I really have no idea how that is going to evolve yet.

In the mean time… the forecast for the Boston area and its neighbors goes this way:

TODAY: Clouds may linger at the coast early otherwise mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 15-20. Wind W diminishing to near 10 MPH and shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snow of 2-5 inches starting around dawn and ending around dusk. High 25-30. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering snow flurries early. Low 20-25. Wind NE around 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain. Low 29. High 50.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Low 40. High 49.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 25. High 41.

142 thoughts on “Dry, Snow, Dry, Rain”

  1. Thanks TK. Winter weather alerts up for Southern CT and I think will see those expand as the day goes on. It looks like south of Boston will have the big impacts from this storm as the storm center is tracking a little further south. Its those areas that have the best chances of seeing level two snowfall 4 plus inches. Mass Pike North looks to be a level one snowfall with less than 4 inches. As always any slight shift in the track will make a difference.
    Rainorama on Monday and MAYBE more wintry precipitation late next week. Its so nice to finally be talking about snow.

  2. Thanks TK !

    About 2 to 2.5 inches of pasty, wet snow here in eastern Marshfield. I guess Taunton wx office got 4.4 inches. This low is easily seen this morning off the Maine Coast.

    With a light north/northeast wind tomorrow, I wonder if portions of coastal Mass and the Cape get a little bit of enhancement tomorrow to the storm’s snowfall. Mid 20s air temps on a northeast wind over water temps in the low 40s should be interesting !

  3. Now thats an inland runner on the EURO….like over Duluth, MN ! 🙂

    I think inland surface cold air is really stubborn Monday. Nothing like cold rain on top of snow. 🙁

    Some of what look like mild storms on the long range GFS are going to end up being further south and east and end up being snow producers for our region, in my opinion. For the first time this winter, I’m starting to think the seasonal Logan total I went for will be too low. (27 inches). Its going to be a fun next 4 to 5 weeks, I think.

    Happy Friday all !!

  4. Morning,

    Guessing about 2 inches in JP. Very nice scene outside. NWS talked about how the storm formed 150 miles further south as a triple low thus the higher amounts in the southern part of the state.
    Looks like the SE part of the state is set up for the heavier snow on Saturday. NWS looking 3-6 for most of SE, cape and islands. For the immediate Bostin area looks like 2-4 with the southern burbs closer to the 4 inch mark. I am curious today to see what happens with the retreating high up north and how much impact that has in the norther fringe.

    1. It was fun last night watching that feature develop from its infancy over central Long Island up through central CT. Its still nicely seen on Maine radar. I’m glad it pushed through our area.

      Tomorrow…..25F air over mild ocean…north, northeast wind. Maybe the immediate coastline and Cape will need their own snowfall range tomorrow. 🙂

  5. Snow storm looks like a bust for areas around 495.
    4-6 to possible 8 inch amounts south coast
    2-4 inches south of the pike
    loess than 2 inches north of the pike
    storm tracks to far south.

  6. It’s possible north of pike gets less than 3 inches, while providence gets over 6 inches, places like Manchester nh may get nothing but a few snowshowers

  7. Matt don’t lose hope for 495 just yet, looks at last nights clipper that formed a triple low that nobody saw happening.

  10. I am starting to feel with this event and February coming up this will not be the least snowiest on record. With that said I think snowfall will be below average unless February is like January 2011.

    1. Its unbelievable. The roads needed to be plowed…….its beautiful out there. It not out of the question that our area could have a snow depth of 8 to 12 inches on the ground by Saturday evening.

  12. WBZ this am: Snow map for Sat shows 1-3″ north of Pike and 3-6″ south of Pike. Their 3-6″ line moved ever so slightly north from yesterday’s forecast.

  14. Just came in from clearing the car and measured 2.4 inches in my usual spot. Hoping we can add more on Saturday.

  16. Really keep an eye on that high up north today and what the clipper does with it as it clears the gulf of Maine into NS. That will be the key factor in how Garth north our storm moves.

  19. Very interested in the nam and SREF today to see where the heavy snow sets up.
    JMA if your out there would love your insights.

  20. Was up at 2:00 just watching. They plowed around 4. Just opening my eyes again. All I can say is beautiful. About 2-3 but that’s a guess

  21. We have 2-1/2 inches of light, fluffy snow in Sudbury.

    Winter is finally here! OK – winter made its statement, let’s move on to Spring! No, just kidding! 🙂 Really, it is beautiful out. It’s like a winter wonderland outside, everything covered in snow and as the sun has been coming out, it makes everything look prettier. I am looking forward to more snow on Sat., actually. I know we are supposed to get rain nxt. wk., but I would like to see more snow and cold weather through Feb., so that when spring comes we will really appreciate it.

  22. We just need the precip field to move 25 miles north and most of the area will be warning type snow, due to the decent ratios. I am thinking 12:1 is a good bet.

  25. Good morning- It’s nice to be around during a snowstorm and not working. I am guessing Pembroke picked up at least 3 inches maybe 4. As of right now myself, vicki,coastal and Tom should be in the jackpot area for the storm tomorrow. We shall see if this pans out.

    1. yay – we are putting together our snow menu, will food shop today, and then plan to just sit tomorrow and watch.

      1. What food store do you go too. I would say you made out good down here storm wise. Tomorrow will be your 3rd storm. The first you were able to see the power of the ocean during the storm, you got the snow early this morning and now maybe a bigger storm for tomorrow. Well I should say 4 storms, but I do not think monday’s storm was that big of a deal down here. So it is good that you get to go through what we see down here compared to where you live on the north shore.

        1. And again if everything pans out north shore will get the least snow if this keeps going south. But thing’s change and we need to keep an eye on it. I would like to see a big one down here.

    1. Measured 1.75″ on my front walk. Only took one measurement.

      06Z NAM greater qpf.

      12Z running. We’ll see.

    1. Looks like Boston will come in just under .5 qpf Between .5 and .75
      down towards the Cape, but Sleet, frz rain, rain may get involved
      the farther South one goes. With ratios, boston could push 6 inches of snow?
      We’ll see. AND it could always track a bit farther North.

      The concern is the LOW qpf from GFS and the 0Z Euro was not impressive,
      showing “about” 3 inches or so for boston.

  32. 12z NAM

    Taunton .74
    Hartford .40
    Worcester .38
    Boston .37
    Springfield .37
    Manchester .18

    Snow Ratios look like about on target for Climo .10-.12 for most of the region trending to about .15 -.17 north. .20 Snow ratios are really hard to come by especially in urban areas.

    1. JMA, Many thanks

      That looks to be right on target.

      IF that were to verify, Boston gets 4 or 5 inches.
      Taunton gets about 8 inches or so.

      BUT Gfs and Euro qpfs are even Less than that.

      We shall see.

  33. ECWMF is

    .32 for Hartford
    .31 for Taunton
    .28 for Springfield
    .26 Worcester

    GFS is generally .15-.30 north to south for the regions

    SREF .25-.40 South of MA Pike, lowest amounts closest to the Pike Highest at the Coast.
    .15 – .25 North of the Pike. Highest amounts closest to the pike.

    NAM is an outlier.

    1. so…with temps in the 20s….reasonable that these QPFs say a general 3 to 5 inches Mass/NH Border points south ? Slightly higher temps south of Boston offset slightly higher QPF with the opposite relationship north of Boston.

  35. Thanks JMA. Big spread on QPF amounts, got to love that having to forecast.

    on the 12Z NAM big drop from Taunton north… hmmmm

  36. Just got a quick look at the brand new SREF. It is much more in line with the OOZ GFS/ECWMF. It is about .10-.20 mass pike north, amounts trending down as you go north and .20-.35 Mass Pike South. So it actually it actually has slightly less QPF than its last run. Seeing that the SREF is heavily reliant on the NAM, it tells you what an outlier the OP NAM is right now.

    The SREF snow tool is my got to product for snow accumulation totals inside 36 hours.

  37. JMA can you speak as to why the storm lastnight formed further south. I love hearing technical discussion from experts.

  38. Hadi I have not looked at it to closely as to why, but I find it fascinating that in mid to late January with plenty of cold air that a Triple Point Low can form on our door step and the best it can do is deliver 4″ to a small geographic area.

    In general it looks to me like the model guidance was too far north and east with it best convergence zone and created a meso complex that in the summertime would have spawned strong thunderstorms

    I am out for most the remainder of the day. Check in later this afternoon

  39. Should have explained that better, but am rushing here. Model guidance was too far north and east, because the convergence zone was further south than modeled it allowed for the best dynamics and best lift to take place right over Eastern CT, RI and SE MA.

  40. Thanks JMA.

    Those low QPF numbers for the immediate Boston area on the SREF are not great. Maybe 2-4 inches if that is accurate and moreso down toward the south. The NAM has been pretty consistent with it’s QPF over the last couple of runs.

    I think the chance of this thing moving any more north are slim to none at this point. Look at last night how much further south the storm was vs. what was modeled, not sure if that has a correlation to tomorrow’s storm.

  41. Harvey is fairly good with his snowfall predictions. I feel that BB and TK’s snowfall predictions are generally always on the low end. If they change there totals it is usually up rather than down.

    1. So Hadi again, just getting confused here. Is this storm still on the southern track and is south shore still predicted for the higher amount. Is It safe to say we could get 6inches or more, or under. I am talking like Hanover,pembroke, marshfield and scituate areas.Thank’s Hadi.

  47. John

    Take JMA’s SREF number moreso then the GFS, but just posting the numbers. I would say 6 inches is a good bet with the current track.

  48. Temps look to be upper teens to low 20’s from Boston north so you don’t need a ton of QPF in that region to get to the 3-6 inch range. My assumption that is what most mets are banking on when giving the totals.

    Gonna check twitter to see what the local mets are saying.

  49. GFS OFFER MODEST FGEN AND RELATIVELY HIGH SLR GIVEN COLD COLUMN. GREATEST RISK FOR 6+ INCHES WOULD BE OVER CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.
    Is everyone buying into this scenario? If this track is the end result, where does Boston stand w/ snow totals?

      1. If things continue onward south shore would see 6+ easily.The outer cape maybe less with mixing. I also think being on the colder side the snow could be heavier down this way, I suspect that could come into play keeping amounts maybe down, not sure. But I agree with maybe over 6inches.

    2. I think Boston may be on the lower end if things continue, with south shore areas being on the higher end. Not sure what boston had today.I saw south boston came in at an inch. As we all know thing’s can change. Lets see whatTK has to say.

  50. I would agree, the only thing to keep an eye on is ocean enhancement for eastern sections.

    What I will also say is that enjoy it bc looking at the 12Z GFS nothing looks good for the next 2 weeks, but as always that probably will change, but if not then enjoy tomorrow.

  52. Hi Everyone – is there a time frame on this. My son was thinking of heading here from Boston late night and then back up from Scituate to Boston tomorrow afternoon late. However, if it’s still strong late afternoon, he will stay in Brookline since he has plans tomorrow night. Thank you

    1. Vicki It will start early tomorrow and get cranking around 8am and looking to be done by 5pm. Everything I am hearing seems to be just a day storm ending late afternoon or earlier.

      2. Thanks John – sounds as if he’s better just staying in Boston. He’s here today – we are heading to Barker Tavern in Scituate for an early dinner!

        1. I know pub side is cheaper just so you know, just not as many options as main side. Expensive on main side.

          1. I got a groupon coupon $60 for $30 a while back knowing we’d go while here so figure we’ll splurge. May head to the pub side though before we go – thank you!

  53. I think that this next storm will be similar to the last storm that came through last night, 3-5 south, 1-3 north, then a rainstorm early next week 🙂

  54. 12z Euro .25-.30 Boston Worcester Springfield.

    Almost .5 at Taunton though. But its warm. 2m temps are above freezing there with this run.

    Got to go!

    1. 12Z Euro has Boston at or about 4 inches for event.
      Sounds about right, although 3 inches wouldn’t surprise me.

    1. I’m thinking right around 4. If it is more, it is ever so slightly more, like
      in 4.25 or 4.5 in a stretch. Imo anyway.

  57. For what it’s worth:
    TWC calling for 1-3″ Boston, 2-4″ Hartford to Providence
    Accuweather calling for 3-6″ south of the Pike, 1-3″ north
    (Henry M though has the 3-6″ line way up in NH!)

    Here in CT, our FOX and CBS stations are calling for 3-6″ statewide. NBC has 4-6″ north of I-84 and 6-8″ south (think that is a bit of a stretch)

    2. Hadi,

      This looks to be just about right. One caveat that you have mentioned
      previously. It does not seem to take into account any possible OCEAN enhancement. After all it did say NE winds up to 20 mph. With difference between Ocean surface temps and temps above, could provide some extra instability and some possible enhancement. Just a thought. Any comments on this?
      TK? Is this even possible? Or are we blowing smoke?

      1. Yes, ocean enhancement….absolutely. Cant tell you how many storms in January get that down here…..Especially with the colder scenario in place.

  59. Ants_SNEweather Anthony Siciliano
    #SNE Just compared some model runs from last night and compared to current radar data..IMO The NAM seems to be handling it almost dead on.

  60. Updated discussion from the NWS

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOST OF
    MASSACHUSETTS /EXCLUDING NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD FOR
    NOW/…NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND. CURRENTLY
    EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE
    CRITERION IS HIGHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE…SO NO ADVISORY
    POSTED FOR THERE.

    STILL EXPECTING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT…
    ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING WEST-TO-EAST JUST TO THE
    SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE
    JUST SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W…WHICH WOULD FAVOR HEAVIER
    SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS
    NOT AN ISSUE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH SNOW THROUGHOUT
    THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS NANTUCKET AND THE VINEYARD
    WHERE SOME SLEET OR RAIN MAY MIX IN AS THE STORM MAKES ITS CLOSEST
    APPROACH TO THOSE ISLANDS. HENCE CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH FOR A
    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY…YET. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
    FOR THESE ISLANDS BY LATER SHIFTS.

    TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

    — Changed Discussion –SATURDAY…
    20/12Z GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH WITH THEIR HANDLING OF A WEAK
    LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY FROM THE 20/00Z
    RUNS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED AS THE MOST LIKELY
    SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. STILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR HIGHER
    ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A WINTER STORM
    WARNING.

    NONETHELESS HIGH PROBABILITY OF DIFFICULT TRAVEL SAT ACROSS MUCH
    OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.

    1. John, why would you say that? Your area especially to the south has the best chance for moderate snows. My area in Boston will likely mostly light to maybe moderate amounts and well north very light.

  62. I am thinking 3-6 inches pike south. About 1-3 inches north. So with that said snow index at a 2 Pike South since there is a chance for 4 plus inches. This is also the area that could come close to warning criteria. Snow Index at 1 North of the Pike since snow totals will be under 4 inches.

  63. I may be crazy, but it looks like something is up with 18Z NAM.
    More of a 500MB vortex Max than previous runs.

    Thoughts.

  68. Hey Coastal…I want to let you know that this afternoon I invited Ace Master to contact you. However, my comment over at WBZ is undergoing moderation. I don’t know why unless it has been awhile since I last posted over there? We will see what happens. 🙂

  72. On ocean enhancement….

    When a storm goes south of New England in the milder season……… right near the coast when the heavy precip ends…it usually continues to mist or lightly rain for hours after the main precip shield passes. This is a track that usually rewards the south shore with a bit of extra moisture from the ocean. I anticipate the jackpot snowfall amount will fall somewhere between Hingham and Plymouth, within 8 to 10 miles of the coastline.

    2. Hey Tom…regarding your thoughts on ocean enhancement, I understand your thinking, but will this particular storm be moving too fast along to provide any leftover moisture?

      1. Hi Philip.

        Its in the position of the high to the north and its position relative to the storm path that puts the trajectory of the wind over the ocean and into southeast Mass.

  73. Well hang back low goes poof, but on the other hand, the
    .5 qpf line is just about up to Boston on this run, which is somewhat
    more than the 12Z run. BUT remember, the 18Z run of yesterday did the
    same thing only to be reduced again with the 0Z run. Only good thing is we are
    only about 18 hours out from event start, so maybe it is more on this time.
    But then again, it is the 18Z run???? lol

    Oh well, it sure looks like it will snow and Boston now looks to be very close to
    receiving 6 inches, which would be a monster this year!! lol

    1. Keep in mind the snow ratios, we have a 6 degree dew point right now, which will cause tonight’s temps to crash to the low to middle teens. I don’t know how much recovery we will manage to do tomorrow before the precip enters/exits.

      1. I agree that ratios will certainly be higher than 10:1, probably
        12:1 or even pushing 15:1 towards the Boston area Northward.

    2. From NWS at Taunton as part of their Advisory warning:

      STILL NEED TO BE CONCERNED FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 WHICH MIGHT LEAD TO A WINTER STORM
      WARNING.

      Interesting.

  74. Once again I’m having problems with the wording showing up on both the NWS point forecast and zones forecasts.

    One of the point forecasts with temperatures below freezing all night Sunday night and a low of 26 is calling for rain and sleet. Not freezing rain, just plain rain. Wrong. Try again.

    Zone wording for Monday is too vague. Yes I know it’s Friday, but if you are going to put sleet, freezing rain, and rain in the forecast and then forecast a high in the upper 40s, you may want to try to specify what part of the day is going to be most prime for the freezing and/or frozen precip. I am sure they have an idea.

    This is the kind of thing that makes their products lose credibility, and that’s just too bad. And I don’t feel bad giving them a slam – they are part of our government.

  75. What I am most excited about is that it’s a daytime storm. We do not get that many during the day, most at night while we are sleeping!!

    1. Hadi – I was thinking the exact same thing – and a Saturday which means most people (sadly not all) will be safely off the roads. We did early food shopping today and have a fun day of cooking a fun celebratory meal (yes I get carried away) planned while we watch. The only thing I am sorry about is the house we are renting doesn’t have a fireplace but it does have a wonderful panoramic view so I figure that’s even better!

  76. My storm totals by Sat night/midnight will be Boston 3.5 inches, Worcester 4.0 inches, Providence 5.0 inches,, Jackpot Hartford to Coventry RI where 6.0 inches will fall, places like Lowell,Fitchburg, and Machester will get around an inch or 2.

  77. Wit the cold high hanging to the north of New England and then retreating eastward, north of us….I think the potential is there for snizzle to continue along the coast Saturday night, gradually turning to freezing drizzle late Saturday night and Sunday. Inland, the skies may clear for a time late Saturday night, allowing for some very cold low temps……which I think are going to eventually lead to huge temperature busts on Monday, especially inland.

    1. I think this is the basis for the icing late Sunday night or early Monday that I mentioned a few days ago (per Euro). I think aloft we warm rapidly and sufficiently for liquid falling. But eventually the surface cold will likely get scoured out later Monday. I just wonder if icing is prolonged inland vs. current forecasts.

      1. I am in the camp of prolonged icing inland. As you point out, not necessarily in Worcester (elevated), but in general areas outside of the 128 and 495 belt. I guess I could see it being 45F in Boston and stuck at 31F or 32F in say….Bedford, MA or Franklin, MA.

        1. That scenario is very possible and I have seen it play out that way many times in the past. I will continue to carry a risk for inland icing Monday morning for now.

          Also, my next blog update in a while is probably going to remain with 2-5 for the snow and add spot 6-inch amounts south of the Pike and in north-facing coastal areas south of Boston due to very slight ocean enhancement.

          Another thing we may be looking at as we still carry plenty of low level cold and moisture through Sunday afternoon and a NE wind is another round of ocean-effect snow showers similar to what took place Thursday afternoon.

        2. Sure looks like there will be some icing, even in Boston
          for awhile. Question is, how long does it hang on
          inland? Good question. As you suggest, could be quite awhile.

  79. Pete saying height of storm between 11-3. 5-8 south of pike 2-5 boston. snow starts mid morning ending late afternoon.

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