9:38PM
HIGHLIGHTS…
Icy start inland Monday.
50 degrees early Tuesday?
Chilly midweek.
Unsettled late week.
DISCUSSION…
Low pressure will track northeastward across the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada through Tuesday. A warm front will move into southern New England Monday, but cold air trapped at the surface, especially away from the coast, means that some icing is possible Monday morning. The good news is that most of the precipitation should be in the form of freezing drizzle and not heavier freezing rain during the morning hours. However, some icy untreated roads, walks, stairs, and driveways are likely before temperatures finally warm to above freezing in most areas by afternoon. At that time, steadier rain should move in as a cold front approaches from the west. This front will cross the region at night and temperatures will warm steadily ahead of it, possibly reaching 50 Monday night or very early Tuesday. During the day Tuesday expect a drier southwest to west air flow and sun mixed with clouds, as the main front will be moving offshore. A secondary front later Tuesday may produce a rain or snow shower, but its main purpose will be to introduce dry and chilly weather for midweek.
The next series of storm systems will threaten the region from Thursday night into next weekend, bringing unsettled weather. It is too early to know details of these systems, but there is some threat of snow.
BOSTON AREA FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of freezing drizzle and areas of fog forming after midnight. Low 27-32. Wind SE under 10 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Drizzle in the morning, likely freezing on untreated surfaces over inland locations with some icy spots likely. Rain likely in the afternoon. High 40-45. Wind calm early then S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain and areas of fog through midnight, then clearing. Temperature rising through the 40s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW late.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 45-50 early then cooling through the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 39.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Snow to rain at night. Low 22. High 39.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 45.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of mix/snow. Low 30. High 35.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.
TK, thanks for the update especially on a busy sports day like this. Tomorrow sounds just plain ugly.
Sounds like an interesting end of the week.
I’m all in for a meet up.
TK, Thanks for the update as always…a fairly strong storm for Saturday compared to yesterday’s and are we perhaps going into a pattern of stormy “weekends”?
I am not getting my hopes up for that Saturday storm threat since it is days away. It is going to be a fun week and as long as there is a chance of that storm affecting us this blog will light up like a Christmas tree.
Thanks TK
I think the key to Saturday storm is what happens on Thursday. Does a phase occur on Thursday of nothing happens and sets the stage for Saturday.
Rematch of Super Bowl 42. It should be a great Super Bowl.
Revenge!!!!!!!! Pats and Giants
Watch the first possible storm thursday night and friday . If this storm does not line up right the saturday storm will not as well.
Ugh…Oz GFS is consistent with the 18z and phases the Thursday/Friday storm instead. Track is inland, giving us a good soaking of rain. Then the second storm is pretty much non-existent, sliding out to sea off the Carolinas and giving us dry weather over the weekend. Hoping the 0z Euro doesn’t latch onto this.
The euro sure looks different over the weekend, shows a benchmark storm. NWS all over a very warm storm for Thursday and temps in the 40’s in Friday.
Yes……this recent cold weather has taken the nearly +7F temp anomoly at Logan from about 10 days ago all the way down to +3F…….. I guess this week is going to send it back towards maybe +5F.
Oh well, the snowcover looked nice for a few days anyway. Already 36F in Marshfield.
Midwest storm looks nice on radar with a precip shield that goes from northern great lakes all the way to the gulf coast.
Impressive warm surge…….44F in Chicago to the low 70s !!! near the gulf coast. I thought the low level cold air would hang tough in New England, but I think thats going to be wrong.
Just no real artic air around this week. You would think looking at the euro for Thursday by track that it looks cold enough but clearly it is not. I need to examine a little closer on wunderground to see 2m temps etc… will have some thoughts when I get into office as its impossible in iPhone or iPad to see things clearly on that website.
Some very light snow in JP
omg—I was in the corner of the end zone where Cundiff missed that kick–I’m pretty tired today!
I bet:)
How cool was that!!! Totally worth being tired for 🙂
The place had to have been in total shock…………what a place to be and what a memory.
So looking at EURO for Thursday it indeed is warmer with 540 above us, but central and western part of the state has snow from the system.
For Saturday system way to much to still work out at this point, but both the 12Z and 0Z EURO show a decent hit. But the 12Z was much more bullish then the 0Z Euro.
Not impressed with anything at this point. We’ll see how things shake out.
One thing for sure, pretty mild all week long.
Surprised at the little dusting of snow this AM.
Had to laugh when I just looked at the 6z GFS. It’s back to yesterday’s thinking and doesn’t phase the Thurs/Fri storm. A piece of energy tracks south of NE w/ lighter rain and snow showers. Then the Saturday coastal storm is back, but tracks it to0 far offshore to affect us. Clipper system then follows behind it on Sunday. The models are really struggling timing all these pieces of energy. Tough forecast!
I am not too impressed at this point either. Things are there but nothing jumps out that is too exciting.
OS you were not the only one surprised, read the morning discussion from NWS.
Thanks. That was a good one! lol
TK, thanks for the update. Approximately, when will any snow start falling on Thurs.? I have to drive my husband to Waltham from Sudbury for cataract surgery. I know it’s not going to be a big storm but I’m wondering if the roads might be slippery from late-morning into the afternoon? I realize it’s early in the week yet, but could you give an estimate? Thanks.
Rain today and more rain Thurs night into Friday. UGH. I am going to enjoy the snow for a little while longer before it goes by bye. The weekend storm POTENTIAL up in the air.
today : mostly cloudy chance of late morning drizzle rain late.
tonight rain lows in the upper 30s rising into the high 40s
tuesday early morning fog warm highs in the upper 40s
tuesday night clear lows in the high 20s
wednesday mostly sunny highs in the low 40s and upper 30s
wednesday night increasing clouds
thursday mostly cloudy ??? highs in the mid 40s
thursday night cloudy chance of rain lows in the mid 30s
friday cloudy a chance of showers highs in the mid 40s
friday night clearing out lows in the upper 20s
saturday mostly sunny ??
saturday night increasing clouds??
sunday cloudy ??
what ever the first storm does will effect what the second will do. right now it does not look good.
the 0Z CMC does show us getting scraped by the Sat night storm with all snow, but nothing that adds up.
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
I think we need a little more time to see what develops, if anything.
Some interesting situations are certainly possible. We shall see.
re: the NAO
Every time it begins to look promising, it reverses itself. This is not looking good at all:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html
True, some ensemble members are negative, but 1/2 of them are not. So who
knows what will happen???
At least some are showing Negative and not all showing positive which is gives us some hope.
But then again, from the Climate Prediction Center, 8-14 day temperature
forecast. This looks familar!!!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
familar => familiar
Same old song and dance from the CPC since after the Pre Halloween Noreaster. It may show above average temps but that does not mean you could not have a brief shot of cold air and if a storm system could get here when the cold is in place then you have a shot at some accumulating snow as was the case on Saturday.
Yes, that is understood. However, the overall set up does not look good.
Same ole same ole. It is beginning to look like what we have seen so far, is
what we will continue to see for the rest of the Winter.
12Z GFS STILL takes the Saturday system OTS. Even IF it were to make it up here,
temperature profiles don’t look so good. Oh well, there is still time. We’ll see if
the 12Z Euro is still advertising a system?????
CMC on the 12Z showing a nice storm for Saturday… what a difference vs. GFS
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
Not bad, however, it still would include a changeover to RAIN in the Boston
area.
not much though OS….
Not that it means anything, but the 12Z NOGAPS has this system as a BENCH MARK snow storm.
Also, 12Z Euro has it as an OTS MISS!(@&#*&*!@#&*&^!@*#&
Given a choice between the Canadian and the Euro, my money is on the Euro.
BUT there is still time for the Euro and GFS to come around, although I tend
to doubt that.
would be cool but i do not think it would happen
OTS on the 12Z, but look at the EURO for thursday/friday, 540 line way north but still some snow in SNE…hmmm something fishy about that!
Didn’t even look there. Be back to ya shortly.
OK, Check out 850MB chart. 850MB temps remain BELOW
freezing, allowing it to still snow even though 1000MB-500MB
thickness is under 5400. This would only be a few inches,
“should” it verify and there would be a possiblity that the
850MB 0C line more farther North than depicted.
under 5400 => over
I did not catch that!! There is the answer.
18Z NAM hints at something.
Surface with 850MB temps:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F23%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
500MB chart with juicy Vortex Max down South.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F23%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M
Just don’t know how it all translate Northward
or even if it does. Sure looks like something, though.
The 12z EURO does not merge the streams, but does show a shot of arctic air for next week. With that comes a much better chance for snow as the NAO and AO will be negative. There is literally no cold air this week, kind of a modified torching thanks to the snow pack.
The snow pack will be irrelevant in under 24 hours, even on the South Coast.
Well it’s not nearly as impressive as shown on the models last week.
My 3″ of snow from yesterday is nearly gone now.
Here’s an old rule of thumb that can be applied to the promising NAO forecasts that suddenly reverse: persistence.
What has it been? That is more than likely to continue. And at least when it finally does reverse on you, you’ll only be wrong once, as opposed to however many times the solid evidence is there one day only to be gone the next after you may have announced “regime change coming!” 🙂
I’m not buying into a -NAO until I see it go there and stay there for more than 2 days.
TK, AMEN to that!! That NAO forecast has let us down so many times
over the past 2 months, it’s incredible!
This is what I’m looking at, which are the EURO NAO forecasts.
http://policlimate.com/climate/ecmwf_nao_bias.html
It hasn’t gone this far negative in quite a while.
I think there will be a lag effect before the negative NAO and -AO really start to impact this pattern.
85,96,01,03,04,07,11 Go Patriots!!! I’ve been a fan since 1985, the dynasty continues 2001- ????. What a great Sunday 🙂
It was great!
Long range looks interesting but no consistent cold air around,
As much as I wish I didn’t agree, I agree.
The blog is updated as of 4:40PM!
Btw,
Drove down 95 through RI into SE Ct Saturday evening.
Could REALLY notice the accumulation build after about Providence.
Roads were AOK by the time we ventured out.
They cannot take these past 2 weekends away from us. I’m grateful for that. At least, it felt like winter. But, good gracious, another week with temperatures approaching 50 and yes, it looks like this could happen again at the end of next week. This is a winter person’s nightmare. I didn’t feel like running this morning. I’ll go tomorrow, reluctantly. But, I will sorely miss the clean, fresh, arctic air. By comparison, a bright and sunny 15 degree morning blows away a damp, gray, and dismal 40. I thought and hoped a pattern change was in the offing, alas, it appears that this was merely wishful thinking. I’m getting reports from up north (from my daughter) that business is way, way down at many of the ski resorts. They had some snow this past week, but today and tomorrow’s temperatures will melt that base away. Cross-country trails have been practically shut down all winter. Sad.