25 thoughts on “C-19 Chat Post – November 28 2021”

  1. Dear Heavens. From NYT

    “ At least 13 cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant were found among passengers on two flights on Friday from South Africa to the Netherlands. Health officials in Australia and Denmark on Sunday also confirmed cases of the variant in recent travelers.”

    1. And you don’t think for 1 second that there were some travelers
      that have arrived in the USA in the past week that were infected
      with Omicron?

      Of course there were. Consider it here.

      We’ll be notified in the next week or so.

      Get ready for the bad news: It will evade vaccines much better than Delta already is. There will still be some protection, but the efficacy will be reduced. How much is the question. And this is my conjecture ONLY as officially we
      “Don’t know yet”.

  2. If I recall, Joshua recently posted that the pandemic could last longer than the previous one (1918-1920) due to our mobility (airplane travel throughout the world). Back in 1918, travel was mostly done by WW I soldiers and not so much for the civilian population. I do wonder if the limited travel back then prevented even more Spanish flu outbreaks?

    With so much airline travel today, banning travel to/from infected countries may already be a lost cause. If Omicron ends up bring vaccine evasive, we are in serious trouble imo.

    1. Philip,
      I heard some official, Not sure who or where, that basically said the same thing. Stopping Air traffic now is already too late. It is already everywhere and beginning to spread.

      He did not say this, but it’s like trying to put out a raging fire with a squirt gun.

      1. Moderna has two vaccines and a booster. I’d think the one they are working on would be vaccine 3 as it will be full dose (guessing) but shot 4.

        I’ll be shocked if moderna comes out before pfeizer considering pfeizer’s support from stock holders in DC….yes, I’m a full blown skeptic when it comes to Pfeizer. Of course moderna could have an equal political investment..I’m just not finding it

  3. While I believe we need travel bans, I agree with this. Also, how many countries do we ban??

    In The New York Times Opinion Section:

    “The reason we can even discuss such early, vigorous, responsible attacks on Omicron is because South African scientists and medical workers realized it was a danger within three weeks of its detection, and their government acted like a good global citizen by notifying the world. They should not be punished for their honest and impressive actions. The United States and other richer countries should provide them with resources to combat their own outbreak — it’s the least we can do,” writes Zeynep Tufekci.

  4. Novavax is also working on a vaccine to counter Omicron. Its original vaccine hasn’t been approved yet, but will be approved shortly in the UK, Australia, Canada, and several other countries.

    I am not an epidemiologist. But, my perspective on Omicron is that we must wait and see what the data show on:
    – Transmissibility;
    – Virulence;
    – Fitness to compete with Delta;
    – Vaccine evasiveness.

    I think a very temporary travel ban from Southern Africa is a good idea. But, I do not think that our knee-jerk response should be to obsess about Omicron.

    We have a MUCH bigger ongoing problem on our hands with Delta and its sub-lineages. Our case, hospitalization, and death data – all attributed at this point to Delta and its sub-lineages – are not good. Similar situation across most of Europe.

    So when asked about Omicron Fauci says “we may have another Covid-19 surge” I am very puzzled. He knows we’re currently in a wave, and for intents and purposes have been since July. In fact, when we get numbers this week and next whatever increases they show will be Delta-fueled, NOT Omicron. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and lose focus on what the problem is right now!

  5. This evening there was a breach of the mandatory hotel quarantine in Amsterdam, as a married couple infected with the coronavirus – possibly the Omicron variant – escaped the heavily guarded hotel.

    The police said in a statement that the pair – a Portuguese and Spanish national – were arrested in an airplane that was about to depart for Spain.

      1. These people will have a criminal record attached to their names. They won’t go to jail. But they will face a steep fine and a suspended sentence.

        They potentially exposed a lot of people to the Omicron variant: On their way to the airport, at the airport (security line, waiting area, etc …), and then in the airplane. I’m sure they were masked most of the time. But masks are NOT a panacea, especially in crowded indoor spaces with no distancing. And the airport and aircraft are precisely that.

  6. Nyt. Makes sense. Either you close to all or not at all

    “ Hours after Israel sealed its borders to all foreign travelers in response to the Omicron variant of the coronavirus, Morocco said it too would deny entry to all travelers, even Moroccan citizens, for two weeks beginning Monday.”

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