Friday AM Mobile Forecast Update

134 Comments

10:18AM

Boston Area…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Numerous rain showers and a slight chance of thunder through midday then scattered rain showers. High from 45 to 55, warmest from Boston south. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

TONIGHT: Slow clearing. Low 30-35. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 44-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 40-45. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 35. High 50.

134 thoughts on “Friday AM Mobile Forecast Update”

  3. On the AccuWeather.com site it headlines the Great Blizzard of 1978 (Jan. 25-27) for the midwest 1-2 feet of snow. This same storm brought us heavy rain but IIRC it produced lots of puddles but not much melting. Of course we all know what happened two weeks later (Feb. 6-7), Lol. 🙂

    Also for those who are keeping track of least snowiest:

    1. 7.8″ = 2011-12*
    2. 9.0″ = 1936-37
    3.10.3″ = 1972-73

  4. Charlie says:
    January 27, 2012 at 11:34 AM
    If I’m not mistaken there r 162 growing days in Boston, 164 days in Providence and around 180 days on Cape? Ive seen we’re our growing days has increased 1.3%?
    Reply

  5. 12z GFS – well, lo and behold, the storm next Friday is pretty much gone, though it still does deliver some light snow.

    2. Yup, A long drawn out period of light snow, some of which may be ocean effect
      or enhanced at least. Now we’ll see what the 12Z Euro has to say. LOL

  6. That run looks weird, the storm just kinda “hangs” there from fri – sun, teasing us, but never fully making it up the coast. At least its not rain

    1. TK, what are some of the things that you look for in a run like that so when you look at it you immediately know it’s garbage. What are some of the red flags?

      1. For one, inconsistency. Example, a sudden placement of a moderate to major storm where there was none before.

        I look at the overall track record of models during the current season, most recent seasonal transition, and longer term performance, especially comparing its performance from the season 1 year prior.

        And then there are just things that are hard to describe that experience will allow you to pick out as uncharacteristic of typical behavior of weather systems, or typical model errors, again these becoming more recognizable the longer you look at these things on a daily basis.

  9. Barry on his nooncast does not believe Boston will quite make it into the warm air and stay in the mid-40s. My bet though Boston gets to 50…we will see.

  10. It is 39 degrees in Sudbury right now and raining moderately. I haven’t been out yet but I opened the window and it is chilly out. Certainly not a feeling of snow in the air but not springlike around here now, either. The weather is just plain weird – and although I have been predicting some heavy snows in Feb. and March, possibly into early April, I am beginning to have some doubts. I’m not sure which met. said yesterday or the day before that the air up in Canada is not as cold as it should be. I am guessing that the air up there would have to get much colder in order for our pattern to change – ‘though I could be wrong.

    1. Yes, I think it was Pete B. on channel 7. I was doing a lot of channel-surfing yesterday to look to see the opinions of many mets. when I need to go out to do something important or if there is a big storm/storms around.

      Of course, I trust TK for the most accurate forecasts! He is on-target a good deal of the time! 🙂 And I really mean that, too.

      1. And, to add – I trust you, Hadi – and the rest of the people here who forecast! I tend to look here first.

  12. Accuweather’s long-range forecast for Boston looks good, but it’s been a tease all winter. I’ll believe it when I see it. The predicted Scandinavian High is coming to fruition, which should produce a wintry week or two in Western Europe. Once that High forms, it settles in for awhile and does not move. Wish we had one now, sitting up over Quebec, alas, that’s not been a feature this winter.

  13. All I want now is just one good 12+ incher and I’ll be happy. I just don’t know. How can you forecast against the trend at this point. ugggghhhhhhhh!

  14. Disagree (respectfully) with the met who said it is not cold enough in Canada. I believe this anomalous pattern has much more to do with an extremely stubborn SE ridge (responsible for our SW wind, which we tend to get in summer but not so much in winter), a jet stream that rarely buckles or dips and when it does is only temporary (fleeting).

    In November and early to mid December, yes. Canada’s temperatures were well above normal across much of Southern and Central Canada. However, since that time it has not been above normal (perhaps slightly, but not by a lot). Labrador City, for example, is pretty much where it should be the coming 10 days or so (highs in the single digits, lows around -10F). Quebec City, highs in the teens and low 20s (generally) – also in line with fairly normal, winter pattern. There’s a very sharp divide, however, at the Canadian border it seems, between winter and what we’re getting (mush!).

    1. I can see what you are saying, Joshua – and also respectfully disagreeing w/any mets., I believe that could be true. I definitely have noticed more of a SW wind this winter. In any case, I will still hold out that at some point – whether it be Feb. or March – the pattern will change. Can’t give any specifics on it as my knowledge is limited but going with just a gut feeling.

  17. 12z Euro is a great run. Potent storm next Friday tracking between Nantucket and the benchmark with heavy snow, especially N and W of a BOS-HTFD line.

        1. love that website, really illustrates the storm. The dynamics seem to be there too for this thing to get crankin

          1. Yes, From the link above type in “J” and it
            reverts back 6 hours. So if you add up all of
            the qpf it would come in at about 1.3 inches!!!!!
            Of course this is a long ways off and we shouldn’t
            even be looking at qpf. But this discussion is all
            a WHAT IF discussion anyway!! This would be
            the grandaddy of all storms for this Winter
            (Save for some interior sections and the October snowfest!)

  18. Great run and euro has been consistent in showing the storm. Again track is way too early to worry about. Retrac thats your 12+ inch storm if it verfies.

  20. Tropics down here on south shore…its warmer and more humid outside than inside. I think with the dewpoint, we could calculate a heat index.

    Seeing the model links above…….if that stayed consistent, wonder if that would be rain to snow, as opposed to all snow ?

    1. Tom,

      If the Euro verifies, its all snow. If there is more of a Canadian scenario,
      then probably Rain to Snow or perhaps all Rain. Let’s get it here, then
      we can worry about precip type. Just too early to tell.

      2. OS – to me it looks like mixing involved SE of a BOS-HTFD line. Of course, the fact that we are talking rain/snow line with 24 more GFS runs and 12 more Euro runs to go before the storm is a bit comical.

        NWS updated forecast has “a chance of rain showers, snow showers, and sleet” for Hartford next Friday. Looks like they covered all their bases 🙂

    1. my gut tells me this thing wont be like other potential storms 7 days out that have completely dissappeared…i think this one is staying, just a matter of track and precip battle to talk about from here on out

  22. Way too early on type!!! Let’s just keep the storm in the card and worry about the track, precip type etc….

    1. Agreed. It’s just nice to have something to watch. With our luck this Season, even if this thing should materialize, it will let us down is some manner or another. lol We’ll keep watching, though for sure…

  23. I guess the reason I brought up rain to snow (and I agree with Old Salty about focusing on it later) is that on Wednesday, I see a mild surge with a clipper passing by to our north and we have seen how much it has struggled to cool off after mild days this winter. So, while the current EURO track looks great, with the way things have been going, I’m not sure if enough cold air would be around at the initial part of the storm.

    1. I hear what you are saying, but at this early stage, it looks like the dynamics are there for a snowmaker. If there is any rain at the outset, I feel it would not be long lasting at all. (Of course this can and probably will change!)

      1. ..I need another 19 inches or so of snow to fall at Logan, so let it snow……..while, mind you…not being cold enough to freeze the pond up there in Jamaica Plain. 🙂

  24. Let’s get some cold air in here first. I’d love to see a snowstorm, but there needs to be sufficient cold air to support a snowstorm. I’m not seeing much the coming 7 days, even on the most optimistic run (though perhaps a rain to snow event would be possible; not to jinx it, but we all remember April 1, 1997!). After next weekend, yes, I do see some supporting (predictive) evidence. But, for next Friday, I think we ought to hold our horses.

  25. We all know that within hours, there can be drastic temperature changes her in NE. So even though we are expected to hit 50 midweek next week, that does not exclude the possibility of snow two days later, especially when there appears to be a blocking high to our north during this potential scenerio. Should storm remain just offshore, any rain would rapidly change to heavy wet snow. But again, will there even be a storm? Where will it track? How progressive vs. amplified will it be? How strong will it become? Those are all questions that will be ironed out with each passing day. Nevertheless, certainly the models are hinting at something important.

    2. Agree on all points…….persistence though from this winter makes me think that reliance on a cold high to the north would feature more of a bleed of cold air, as opposed to a surge, this particular winter anyway.

      1. Yup….I’d be good with being snowed in a day or two before the Super Bowl, watching lots of pre-game coverage and eating various types of good tasting, bad for your health foods.

    4. Absolutely.

      As one of my bosses once said, “it’s easier to snow coming out of warm than it is coming out of cold”. This guy is one of the most respected forecasters in the business and was known for nailing freezes in Florida citrus and Brazil coffee areas days in advance.

  26. Taken directly from the Killington website under current conditions….yikes!

    “Due to icing from freezing rain, intermittent power outages and lightning, Killington Resort will not operate today, Friday, January 27. Rest assured, our dedicated Mountain Ops team will be working around the clock to get the trails in good shape for Saturday, as we expect to open at 8:00 a.m. Thank you for your understanding.”

  27. Blown forecast here in Hartford today. Morning mets were calling for a high in the mid 50’s and as of 3:30 at Bradley, we are 38 and socked in fog. The cold air never got scoured out.

    1. Never got to Boston either…..but just 20 miles south, we have been 60F with a dewpoint near 60F and a steady southerly wind.

      1. The disparity in temps across SNE right now is impressive. 37 in Worcester compared to 60 in Marshfield!

          1. With such great surface temp disparities I’m surprised that a larger winter storm didn’t result.

            1. It’s just that, the greatest differences are at the surface, and the cold air trapped is very shallow. Not enough temp contrast at a level you need to fuel a synoptic scale low pressure area.

                1. Half and half, which seems like a cop-out, but it isn’t. I think a storm is there, but I don’t think it unfolds that way. I don’t like either 12z run today (Euro or GFS).

              2. Thanks TK for explaining. So the temperature contrast is more important from above than it is at the surface to create a more important low?

                1. In many cases, yes, this being one. The shallowness of the cold air really ends up making it act more like a modified snowpack than anything else.

  28. TK,

    Thank you for your thoughts. We’ll just have to keep watching. At least you agree
    that something is up, we just have to see what shakes out.

  29. TK although there will be a lot of uncertainty between now and then, what do you think unfolds if you had to make a guess regarding next week’s storm?

    1. A weaker low with a track closer to the coast than what is showing on today’s 12z Euro.

      I am also in agreement with CPC’s 6-10 & 8-14 today.

  30. Looking at normal temps in the 8-14 day outlook for a change. I see Florida has below normal temps. I don’t mind that when I leave for there in a couple weeks as long as it is not raining. Hopefully any major snow events will hold off either before or after I come back.

    1. JJ you know that there will be a Major Snow Event either the day you
      leave OR the day you return. ALWAYS the way!! lol

  31. Old Salty I have been saying that to a few people that watch will get a big one the day I take off or when I want to come back.

    1. Seriously, I hope not. That would be terrible. How about one while you are
      gone. Would that be ok. When are you leaving?

      1. I am leaving two weeks from Wednesday. In all the times have flown I have never had any issues with weather knock on wood.

      1. Going out tonight. Won’t be checking in till round midnight or so when no one is around. Lol Will be checking out the 0Z GFS
        later. Should be fun viewing.

  33. So, I’m starting to obsess–my daughter is supposed to fly home from Costa Rica on next Friday. We haven’t had anything to worry about all winter, and the one day….anyway, what are the odds? Is she spending another week in paradise?

    1. Deb I would be doing the exact same thing. One thing I’ve learned to do this winter is wait a bit before I start to panic since all of the storms just keep disappearing. I’ll keep my fingers crossed that this does the same – as much as everyone wants snow – I hate to have anyone worry about a family member or friend.

          1. agreed besides that my school has football tornaments and i am a captain of my own team. Been practicing.:) wide reciever and QB and punter

        1. She’s doing a semester there. She goes to UDel, they have sort of a trimester so the kids can do 8 weeks abroad w/o interfering with their majors. She is a bio major so this was a great opportunity. Plus she wanted to improve her Spanish. She’s been living with a family and taking classes at their university. She’s sent amazing pictures–like off a calendar. Probably the neatest is when she was at a volcano–it’s not a lava volcano, but a steam one, but anyway, it looks like the ocean, but it’s the sky–a straight on view of a cloud, with blue behind it.

            1. Semesters abroad are a great opportunity, I would recommend it to anyone who can. I was a bio major too and spent a winter break in Trinidad and Tobago for a research project. Best time ever.

  34. Well the 18z GFS has a strung out and disorganized mess for the 3rd, then again the 12z GFS had a what storm.

  35. Not liking your comments TK!! Doesn’t sound like you much faith in a storm. You have been spot in this winter so we wait for your thoughts!

    1. Spot on? If he was spot on then we would have been complaining about all the snow we got the first half of winter.

      1. My long range forecast SUCKED, to put it plainly.

        Hope I’ve been doing better with the short-term stuff.

      2. At least 4 of us went down with the ship on that long range: Barry and Joe D’Aleo ( who is one of the best, IMO) all took a big hit.

  37. I am going to see what happens with that storm if i do not mention it on hear. maybe it will actually happen if i say nothing, I will try and do what i did last year before school . maybe its a lucky routine. 🙂

            1. Am assuming u r just kidding around
              Since I just went back to read forecasts. Off to watch the ocean and listen to the wind. Interesting night

          2. Most met’s had CC & the South Coast in bands like 3-6 or 3-7 for that event. If anyone had 0-2, I missed them.

  41. Btw anyone see what’s on the heels after next weeks storm, lots of cold and another decent storm. I think this is the period to watch for snow potential, from the 5-15.

  42. Very windy on a late January night, from the west, and the dewpoints are holding in the low 30s. Air temps in Albany, Buffalo and Green Bay are in the mid 30s, BEHIND a departing storm system. Think the US is flooded with pacific air ?

    SW flow tomorrow, some strengthening sun, pacific airmass…I think Logan’s getting to 50F.

  43. Its easy to forget sometimes that nearly 70 percent of the earth is covered by oceans. When you get a pattern that brings the airmasses continually from either the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico or Atlantic Ocean…you get the last 4 months. We’re just experiencing an amazing cold season that has seen very little airmass come from its north.

  44. No met got the correct totals for the cape, all of them blew that forecast including TK and JMA, but they got the rest of the storm pretty darn close so I give all of them a pass in that. A blown forecast to me is when a couple are predicting a big storm and others nothing and the reverse happens. When all of them miss then to me it’s ok.

    In regards to the south shore they were off a little but not enough to label it a blown forecast.

    2. Hadi, that doesn’t make any kind of sense to me. A blown forecast is a blow forecast. 8 to 10 inches, plus or minus, is a blown forcast. You loose all credibility to me with your last post. The makes no sense.

  48. You have to hand it to Barry…on his nooncast he predicted a high of 46 for Boston and he was spot on! Boston never got into the warm air at all and the official high at Logan yesterday was in fact, 46 degrees. I thought maybe Boston would get a teeny taste of warmth and just make to 50. Amazing that Plymouth was 59 though.

    When Barry eventually does retire…I am truly going to miss him to say the least.

  49. Nobody got the synoptic enhanced snowfall on the South Coast right. My max totals were something like 6 or 7 which was a broadbrushed area south of the Pike. Up to around a foot fell, which means about 5 inches off on the high end amounts for a grand whopping total of about 0.40 inch melted. Not a terrible forecast by rainfall standards, but snowfall? It’s a built-in weather double standard and there is no way around it. 🙂

    All the other areas did come in within my forecast range, but who cares about what I or anyone else got right? Your boss only talks to you when you screw up, so that’s what people notice. 🙂

    ……………………………………..

    Regarding the 00z runs: Not bad. GFS has a better idea of the overall setup, is probably doing the right thing in downplaying the “storm” threat for the end of the week, which was fictional in its larger form, in my opinion. The Euro is also improved slightly. I think it was overdone in previous forecasts and on this run has a better idea of what the eventual outcome will be.

    Though the regime itself is still not completely changed, we do likely develop the ability for some serious shots of cold air (compared to the winter so far) as we enter February. I think these cold shots will be a bigger story than major snow threats, at least for the forecastable future.

    Prove me wrong, Mother Nature!

  50. I’m glad some of those weather agencies can be so sure they know with enough detail how pieces of energy currently in Asia and/or somewhere over the western Pacific are going to come together to create a major snowstorm for parts of the Northeast 8 days from now.

    This continues to be a problem with weather-related media: creating a top story when there is no story (or it is only a potential event based on so-so to poorly-performing computer models).

    I ask you: How many of these potential “pattern changers” have they now talked about anywhere from 6 to 12 or more days in advance, and how many of them have taken place and “changed the pattern”?

  51. Good afternoon, does anyone listen to the herd, it’s a espn radio station that gets live tv time, hes telling everyone to leave there cars running to continue warming winters, he says and was saying everyone must leave there cars on for an extra hr each day, he wants a 45 degree winter or warmer every winter, he said he was getting ready to move to NC, now he’s says he will stick around, he lives in Conn, I just thought it was funny, at the same time, it’s more entertainment than anything.

  52. Am I looking at the models right? I’m seeing 50 freaking degrees midweek next week, anyone else seeing this, it’s what the GFS says 🙂

  54. to repeat from earlier in the week..

    average daily highs start going up today.

    like it matters this year.

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