The Week Ahead

9:10AM

This weekly look at the next 7 days (8 including today) is being issued a little earlier than usual today.

First, I want to thank EVERY one of you for visiting and reading, whether you post in the comments section or not. But of course a special thank you goes out to all the regulars that carry on the daily weather chat here.

And anyone else, if you have not posted, feel free to do so if you have a comment or a question, whether you talk to me elsewhere or just here. Use the blog! This is why it’s here.

The only real rule is: Be respectful and civil. If we can all do that, this will always be a great place. You don’t have to agree with everything that is posted here, but we can always learn to tolerate others’ opinions, as tough as it can be at times.

Thanks again and enjoy! 🙂

On to the weather…

A weak cold front passed by last night with clouds and some gusty winds. We will be in between that and a slightly stronger cold front approaching from the west today, so expect a fair but breezy and chilly (but not too cold) day for late January. The second cold front will cross the region from west to east tonight after midnight, and is expected to produce snow showers and possibly a few snow squalls with minor snow accumulation in spots. Monday will be a breezy and cold day, but again not very cold by late January standards. A warm front will move  across the region Tuesday, and ahead of it an area of light snow will develop and move across New England as warm air rides up over the cold air in place. Again a minor snow accumulation is expected, but this may be a more general or widespread snowfall, and may come just in time to slick up some roads for Tuesday morning’s commute, so be aware in case… The warmer air behind the cold front will move in Tuesday night into Wednesday, with yet another wintertime 50-degree day not out of the question Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west later Wednesday, but with the warm air in place expect rain showers.

I know there have been some storm threats advertised in media’s  longer range forecasts for the end of the week and next weekend, but at this point I am going to cautiously stay away from this scenario and say that the lack of phasing of jet streams to the south and north of New England will leave us in the middle with weak high pressure in general control and a few moisture-starved weak frontal systems passing by from Thursday through next weekend. The end of the week is not being forecast with high confidence so please check back for updates as the week goes on.

In the mean time, this is my take on things for the Boston Area…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 41-46. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers especially 11PM to 3AM from west to east, with a heavier snow squall possible. Snow accumulation of 1/2 inch or less. Low 23-28. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts shifting back to W.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Light snow west to east before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snow ending west to east in the morning after accumulating 1 inch or less in most areas. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning through afternoon. High 40-45. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

66 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. And if you will allow me a H.M. moment, might there actually be an important storm to talk about during the weekend of February 11-12? 🙂 😎 😉

    1. Since HM has big daddy…..got to come up with a name……hmmmmm…..

      snow day special……..snow total saver/buster……….February frosty (sounds like a ch. 7 headline)………… not being creative this morning, will have to give this some thought.

    2. Thanks TK and the anticipation of a big storm would make going home today easier. Not to mention that we won’t have football to look forward to that weekend either. Let’s hope

      1. It’s really just a hunch at this point. And a hint of a few things I’ve seen – ingredients. Question is: Will the cook be in the kitchen?

        I despise the term “big daddy” mainly because he uses it for every in-advance threat that he can dream up. And I realize, he’s got a right to use the term, and to dream, but I have a right to dislike it. 🙂

        For now let’s just say that Chef Tropos is making a shopping list.

  2. My wife and kids are off to Florida in mid February, before the Feb break airline rates skyrocket during school break. Watch the pattern flip, New England get its snow and the whole east coast be well below normal during their stay.

      1. Work………We have an easier time affording the off vacation airfares…..plus with the summer off, I get to take tons of trips with them.

  3. H.M. latest video sounds like he’s throwing the towel in and giving up on the winter! Not good sign since Henry usually finds at least one model showing a storm that he can run with.

  4. Henry Margusity flip flops all the time. He is right about one thing unless the NAO goes negative no chance of a big east coast snowstorm.

    1. I think we get a couple good ones in Feb. And who knows this may be the year
      that we get snow storms in March. It looks like we have at least a shot at getting maybe an inch mon night/tues am. Time will tell.

  5. Snow Index obviously just at 1 since if there is accumulation it will be MINOR. Nusance systems is what I like to call them.

  6. Wednesday’s temperature anomaly looks to be plus 15-20F. Unbelievable! This said, a sustained period of normal cold (nothing extreme) appears ready to settle in starting next weekend. I’ll believe it when I see it, but indications seem to be pointing in that direction. Even if the snow is minimal, at least it’ll feel like winter.

  7. Tend to agree with TK about this week being filled with essentially non-events. Some warm days that will continue this on average anomalously warm pattern.

    That is the problem with me here. I tend to agree too much with TK. Forecasting thought process seems to be similar…

    Ok, here is a disagreement. I don’t see much potential for the weekend of February 11th and 12th. What I see is cold temps crashing into Washington and Oregon, suppressing west coast storms into Central and Southern California. This tends to not bode well for storms that generate in Southern US and into the Tennessee Valley. It tends to set them off on a more easterly trajectory instead of the NE one that you need to get a snowstorm in New England. So a storm ejects itself off the coast of NC and any secondary redevelopment or bombogenesis happens too far south and east. Combined that with the potential for clipper or trough north of us during that time, which would further suppress and kick east any southern stream storm, I lack any confidence in that weekend.

    1. I happen to like when we agree as I think you are an excellent forecaster. Gives me more confidence. 🙂 … Maybe we should snag Barry when he retires and start an online Triumvirate. 😉

  8. cold air is locked up in the marsh land. some really thin ice has formed. the water temp is about 33 right now. with a temp of 38 degrees in there while up at the house its 41. how a 20 foot drop in elevation can change that.

  9. Doesn’t bode well for storms when JMA and TK agree!!! The 12Z euro does bring in some bitter cold in the long range. It also has two storms next week and the weekend but both look weak and provide mixed precip anyway from I can tell.

    1. Reminds me of before. The models plunge the cold into the East and try to make it look sustained, but in reality the PV strings out across Canada, the mean trough retrogrades partly, with broken pieces coming east and providing the brief cold shots here. Again, I do think some of the cold shots will develop the ability to be stinging, but I still don’t see it as sustained cold at this point.

  10. Sniff. Don’t know whether I’m crying because I’m on my way home after a perfect month in your area John Tom and Coastal or because the chances for big storms are diminishing. Depressing all around 🙂

  11. I agree TK both GFS and euro have done this winter to no success in the end. I do think it will get very cold but not sustained.

  12. Now that’s more like it. The 18z GFS is back to fictional topics. Compare its depiction of the events for February 5 to the same date for both the 12z and 06z runs.

          1. HM probably hacked into the GFS supercomputer and cut and paste that in there. It’s probably a map from one of last years storms.

  13. Went to the Patriots rally today, what a turnout 30,000 showed up, it was a great time, perfect weather

    1. It was great wasn’t it. i was there too with my son. Another fine day.

      Went into the hall for a picture with the AFC champ trophy. First time I’ve seen the three lombardi trophies too–what a site!

    1. I don’t know if that band will hold together by the time it reaches us, lots of dry air in place. Maybe a few snow showers tonight.
      Better chance for minor accumulations is Monday night.

      1. Actually that thing has a lot of energy, and the NAM has the vort max going right over us. We’ll see what happens.

        1. IF the line holds together it looks like around 2AM for eastern MA. You know what we haven’t had for a very long time? A linear heavy snow squall during the day. One that sweeps west to east across the entire state, wind gusts over 30 MPH, near zero visibility in very heavy snow for about 5 minutes about 1/2 inch accumulation, then bright sun just minutes later.

              1. I got stuck in a snow squall in maybe 2003-4ish. Took me four hours to drive from rt 2 Arlington Belmont exit on 128 to Burlington exit. If you are not familiar with that area it cant be more than a few miles. 4 hours

  14. That 18z GFS was fun to see with the sloth moving through next weekend literally burying us. There was also a bomb behind that. Get’s you excited to see it on the model, if only we could see it become a reality…
    For once the EURO is on board with a colder pattern, yet TK and others jumped off the EURO train…

    1. Just remember the weekend versions of that are automated. I don’t think they should even bother to issue it.

        1. Another thing.. I’m not a fan of 6-10 and 8-14. There’s 3 days that overlap. What’s the point? If you’re going to go out 2 weeks, do a week 1 and week 2 outlook (1-7 day, 8-14 day). Or just kill the 6-10 and do an 8-14 since zone and point forecasts go out 7 days anyway.

  15. For what it’s worth the 18Z GFS has been consistent in showing that outcome.

    TK why in meteorology standpoint is that far fetched? Thanks

        1. It just doesn’t often jive with the other runs. I can’t look at that run with as drastic a change as it made from 2 previous runs and suddenly buy it. If I see run after run after run with that solution, then we’ll talk… 🙂

  16. What r the chances this snow squall coming into eastern NY makes it here? My thinking is it will dry up considerably coming into western and central Mass leaving a few flurries for eastern ma

    1. There’s quite a bit of support for it, but given the way this winter is running, it wouldn’t surprise me if it crapped out…

  17. Could see that line approaching the Hudson River Valley. A snow squall to me is like a thunderstorm where some towns get nailed and others stay dry.

  18. To me this is like tracking a line of thunderstorms during the summer and to see what happens to the line as it progresses to the east. I can’t wait to track thunderstorms in a few months but before then I hope there a few good snowstorms to track.

  19. The long range accuweather forecast just cracks me up!! It says for 2/6 snow with accumulation of 4.3 inches? Really come on now.

    1. Don’t count that thing out yet. The vort max is coming right along. You can even see the spin on the radar. Much like summertime convection – it can pulse as it moves along.

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