The Week Ahead – Update

139 Comments

1:37AM

Just updating for timing of snow showers and time periods. Full discussion found at previous post.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers early, then mostly sunny. High 32-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Light snow west to east before dawn. Low 20-25. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with light snow ending west to east in the morning after accumulating 1 inch or less in most areas. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny late morning through afternoon. High 40-45. Wind variable becoming S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 39. High 51.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 41.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

139 thoughts on “The Week Ahead – Update”

  2. Thanks TK. Interesting discussion from the NWS out of Upton NY.
    OF NOTE…THE GFS PHASES THIS TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS FOR A BIT BY FRIDAY…HELPING TO NUDGE IT
    EAST…WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT DO THIS. THE RESULT IS THAT WHEN THE
    NEXT NORTHERN STREAM LOW COMES ACROSS SE CANADA SUNDAY…THE GFS HAS
    THIS ENERGY TO PICK UP AND DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY…WHILE
    THE GFS DOES NOT. FOR NOW…AM SUSPECT OF THIS PHASING…SO AM ONLY
    CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY…WITH A BLEND OF THERMAL
    PROFILES SUGGESTING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES…AND POSSIBLY A
    RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.

    CONTINUED TO USE BLEND OF MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE WITH HPC
    GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE
    FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL…TRENDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
    NORMAL HIGHS BY SUNDAY.

    ALL OF THIS MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE IS A REFLECTION OF
    A POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE…WHICH GENERALLY THROWS THE MODELS A BIT
    OFF. THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTING THAT BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND…THERE
    SHOULD BE A POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHTLY
    NEGATIVE NAO…AND THE 00Z GFS HAS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
    THIS IDEA. IF THIS HOLDS…THEN THIS SHOULD SPELL A RETURN TO WINTER
    CONDITIONS…AFTER MAINLY FALL LIKE CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF JANUARY.
    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THESE TRENDS HOLD.

  3. We shall see what happens but I suspect as has been this winter the chances are minimal. Again the consistent part of both global models is the cold to follow. The models are flip flopping more than a political candidate so it’s hard to really believe anything.
    On a selfish note for once I am not rooting for a storm on Sunday as we are having our basement gutted and re-done starting Monday so Sunday is a big day to get stuff out.

  5. No snow fell here last night, although a small batch of precip is just to our west associated with a cold front.

  9. SWS from NWS

    AT 732 AM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A LINE
    OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAVERHILL TO BELMONT
    MASSACHUSETTS…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. EXPECT A BRIEF BURST OF
    MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG WITH POOR
    VISIBILITY. ROADS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SNOW COVERED ESPECIALLY
    SECONDARY ROADS…SO MOTORISTS NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. THE SNOW
    SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY 830 AM WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY
    IMPROVING THEREAFTER

    1. Interesting – same exact squall line as one I mentioned on yesterday’s blog that I was caught in back in I think 2003. I have taken the term “snow squall” very seriously since then.

      Very windy here (back in Framingham)

      1. Vicki, that may have been the same squall I too was caught off guard in. Pretty scary stuff, to say the least. All I could do was pull to the side of the road and wait it out. If I remember correctly, we got like 2 inches in a matter of 15 minutes.

        1. shotime – I bet it was. The problem seemed to be when cars reached the Burlington Mall exit they would slide down the hill on the other side of it on Rt 128 and then run into each other. Literally I went 4 miles or less in 4 hours. I’d never seen anything like it before

  10. The Berks tend to break these sorts of things up. I usually don’t get too jazzed up about a squall line until it clears the hills to our west.

  11. the models look more seasonal rather than warm bias in the mid to long term. flow is still too fast and flat to get excited about anything.

  14. Just don’t have much to say this morning. I don’t think I have ever seen so much
    flip-flopping with models in my life. These on again/off again disappearing storms
    is getting to be a bit much. I’m not sure the GFS and EURO have agreed on anything
    this season???

    having said that, we still have to watch this upcoming weekend, but as Hadi says, chances are Minimal. Couldn’t agree more.

    Sooner or later one of these MIRAGES will have to materialize!
    Running out of time!

    1. Is it possible that a for real pattern change could be setting up to occur and that’s what’s confusing the models? I sure hope so. Even a month of winter is better than none!

    2. I second that OS, I thought for sure when this weekend’s storm showed up last week consistently on the EURO and somewhat on the GFS that this storm would be one we would be talking about all week in anticipation. What a letdown!

    1. Keep in mind how cruddy the GFS is preforming as of late, and those forecasts come right from that model and it’s ensembles.

      1. tis true and a good point, but we don’t have much else to go on.
        We’ll see what happens. As others have said, I just hopt the
        pattern change doesn’ wait until about late March or April just in time to give us a MISERABLE SPRING????

  16. Far northern Mass, particularly NE Mass, and areas north of the Mass/NH border have the best chance at seeing an inch or so of snow tonight.

      1. Hey Shotime…. In regards to pattern change read my earlier post where I copied and pasted the NWS discussion
        from Upton NY.
        Anytime we see snow flakes is a big deal in this winter of 2011-2012.

      2. I guess I would be more excited for 1 or 2 inches of snow if it was cold enough for it to stick around for an extended period of time. Any snow we got 2 weekends ago has been reduced to mere patches around mailboxes and driveways

    1. Yes, TK has let us know that! lol However, I throw that out there to indicate
      the total uncertainty of it all. There appears the “possiblity” of 2 events.
      One around 2/3 and the other around 2/5 or 2/6. At this point they are
      probably ficticious, but some models are indicating so, while others are not.

      This has been a frustrating Winter season, So we tend to look for anything.

      I’ll be curious to see what the 12Z Euro and GFS and to some extent
      the Canadian have to say.

  20. It’s just crazy that after a sugar coating tonight, then close to 50 degrees Tue, then mid 50’s Wed!!! Also it appears likely that we come back to earth with more seasonable levels, but if u look at the end of the longe range gfs, it’s pointing towards a warm up again the 3rd week of Feb,, I think we are heading for a top 5 least snowiest.

  21. Sun angle is climbing at a fast clip, I believe we r gaining roughly a min per day earlier sunrise and a min later sunset, 15 min per week!!!

  22. I’m beyond perplexed at this point. GFS had been consistently hinting – as recently as yesterday – at least at a relatively sustained period of cold starting this weekend. Now, that’s gone, too, and that’s reflected in Accuweather’s dramatic revision of its long-range forecast (not that I put too much stock in the long-range, but still). I’m seeing mid and upper 40s again middle and end of next week. How awful is that? Yes, we can and should throw in the towel on this winter. It just ain’t there, folks. To make things worse, even though it’s cold in Europe right now, there are indications that the Scandinavian High that was so impressive to begin with, may break down much quicker than was forecast as recently as yesterday. This does make for an interesting scenario in England – in particular, east Anglia (where the pilgrims originated from) and northeast England. Lows will come charging in off the Atlantic and bump up against still lingering cold air. I think we may see a major snowstorm late this week in places like Edinburgh, Newcastle, Durham, before the thaw melts everything away.

    1. I think you throwing in the towel on winter is a bit to soon. Are you forgetting those surprise sneakup storms. I believe we get at least 2 big snow events for feb, and some small dustings here and there. I predict we get 20 inches from now to march 1st. Way to early to say winter is over. Some of the bigest and most historic storms have taken place in feb. Just my thoughts.

    2. Well, at least the people in the south, especially Texas will get some drought relief.

      How about that hole right over us!

  25. Again not sure how people are seeing warmer vs. colder more then two weeks out? Maybe you are guessing. And to be honest no way we can predict what the heck is going to happen a week out let alone 3-4 weeks out.

      1. I’m thinking seasonal for a couple of weeks Hadi after the warm-up mid-week. Maybe people are basing their opinion on the pattern basically staying the same. In four weeks, a 5-10 degree above average puts temps near fifty on a pretty consuistent basis all things being equal. Hard to beleive still but I wouldn’t have believed some of the temps from this winter if you told me back in September. The South is going to warm up soon and if we don’t lock into a major cold pattern, it’ll start translating up here in a short 4-6 weeks.

        1. just for kicks…

          average daily high in Richmond for the middle of March is 60. If this pattern continues and it’s around 3-5F above average, that’s 65 degree air not very far from here.

    1. oh sure rub it in 🙁

      How’s your hand, John……………and I have looked out every darn window in this house and can’t seem to find the ocean any more

      1. Viki,

        I guess for now, you’ll just have to open a window to your mind, then I’m sure you will see the ocean!

  27. Well….
    Here is the 12Z version of the 2/3 system (OTS):

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F30%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=090&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    And here is the 12Z GFS version of the 2/6 system (GLC!!!):

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F30%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=165&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    WE MISS with both of them!!! LMAO!!!

    1. We’ll see what the Euro says. But the above figures and fits very well with how
      this Winter season has been going.

  29. I’m glad I learned to trust in the persistence method of forecasting because if there was ever a winter this method was the way to go, this is the one. Thanks to my senior colleagues in the private sector for valuable lessons. 🙂

  30. I think there’s definately something to say about sticking with the trend until it proves you wrong. My background is in business and I know minimal, at best, about meteorology but I’ve observed the weather and fascinated over it my whole life and that broad philosphy just makes sense to me. (I’m assuming this is what you were referring to TK–or something like it)

  31. Melissa on BZ at noon. Coating to an inch in Boston area tonight starting after midnight. More north and west, 1-2″, as usual. I noticed sShe is calling for a high of 53 on Weds.

  33. Retrac I agree to your post about seasonal changes impacting things and the way you are looking at things. I guess my school of thought is that nothing is certain especially when dealing with weather even though climatology speaking our chances get less and less.

    1. absolutely Hadi…nature rules and that’s what great about the weather. It’s something we haven’t been able to control (thank God) and can’t predict with great accuracy beyond a few days on balance. (the trend is real and depressing though still isn’t it!) I still think we get a couple of bombs before the winter is out. I have nothing scientific to back that up however.

  34. TK your Feb 11th storm now shows up on the GFS, maybe your not happy about that 🙂

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20120130%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=276&imagesurls=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=01%2F30%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

    1. Will that turn into Henry Margusity’s big daddy that he predicted would happen in mid February???
      Is that 12z EURO run for that Thursday system or the Sunday system???

  36. The main theme on the 12z runs for the GFS and Euro was the PV, and western ridging.
    I think it’s gotten to a point where looking beyond 84 hours on any model is getting risky, with this changeable pattern.

      1. I think something is going to happen.
        The AO has been negative for a while and will remain there.
        The PNA is positive, and will remain there.
        The NAO is neutral.(If goes negative then we will know it)
        The MJO is on it’s way to the more favorable phases

        I’m not willing to throw in the towel for this winter just yet.

  37. Sorry I was looking at the wrong dates, clearly its not a GLC on the EURO, but still not much snow in Boston area.

  40. I’m going wayyyy off topic here. One of my passions is weather as you know. Another is revolutionary war and civil war history – with John Adams as well as his wife, Abagail, being my all time heroes. I am incredibly excited because The Fireplace in Brookline is hosting a Love Letters by the Fire presentation of some of the over 1,000 letters exchanged between the two along with drink and food from the era. Sorry – didn’t mean to interrupt – but I’m so excited I’m bursting. As I have said often – does not take a lot to amuse me 🙂

  41. ………………and back to whether. My inclination is not to write off the winter but my gut is telling me we’ve seen it all other than a few disturbances here and there. Hope I’m wrong.

  42. The temps in the central Plains are in the mid 60s behind this warm front. The skies are clear and the late Jan. strengthening sun is losing none of its energy melting any snow. I wonder if that airmass cools much on its eastward trek into New England on Wednesday.

  43. It doesn’t worry me that a storm shows up on the GFS for around the 11th. I’m going with the “have it, lose it, find it again” GFS trend.

  44. We ll my hard work has paid off. I just got us Bailey man, so he said. It was posted to him last night. He said to send him the invite, I believe it was him. Tk do you think as you were blogging with him. Could somebody invite him over. Don’t know coastals email and heading out to pick up my new phone. Maybe later I will blog using it. I tested it in the store and went on hear.

        1. Looks like him. When coastal is around he can do the email thing. But I’m not 100% sure he isn’t among us already.

    2. Wow! You can actually see a peice of the tire flying away from the plane. I’d be running for my life, too!

    1. I also like the reaction of all the workers. I’m guessing that must have been one loud crackle of thunder.

      1. They would have heard a loud snap (shock-wave). I’m guessing their initial reaction was probably to think bomb instead of lightning.

  47. Seems that the evening forecasts are going with mid 50s to maybe 60F Wednesday. Many times this winter, the warm sector temps have ended up being higher than forecast. 62F or 63F therefore, wont shock me if its hit in the local area Wednesday.

  49. Very cool video, TK.

    My back went out a few days ago so I haven’t been feeling that great. Very windy today. I guess the little storms we will be getting won’t amount to much.

    1. Oh no rainshine. I’ve been wondering where you were. Especially when TK mentioned clouds. Are you any better??

      1. Good luck Rainshine. My lower left back spasmed about 3 weeks ago. It sent pain down the psyatic nerve. Awful getting up from sitting or in/out of a car. Took 10 days to 2 weeks for pain to subside. Hope your discomfort relieves soon !!

  51. This is unreal! The sprouts of the daffodils in a patch in my front yard are popping up! Yes, these are the first plants to sprout generally in the spring season, but I have never seen them start to come up so early!

    2. I just went outside to check with a flashlight. My husband just watched and didn’t say a word. Don’t blame him. I have daffodils on south side against a white house under a dryer vent. So far they are not showing. I do know that no matter how early they come up they do fine. Mine were up and blooming when we had one foot on April 29 1987 and survived without problem. My gut tells me they know something we do not Shreedhar

      1. I think Boston hits 58 or 59 degrees Wed, what a way to start Feb!!! If we get snow from this point forward Im hoping for a blockbuster 12+, I believe we r on the back 9 in winter terms and believe we’ve seen most of our snow already unfortunately, have a nice night everyone and go Patriots!!! 🙂

        1. Mine too. If there is snow they should be fine but John might help here. He has a ton of landscape knowledge.

  52. Someone should calculate the average temperature on a Wednesday this winter. My hunch is it’ll be an unreal number. We’ve had lots of rain on Wednesdays and generally very mild temperatures. And if I’m interpreting the models correctly next Wednesday may be in the mid 40s! This is the strangest pattern. By the way, they’re now forecasting rain showers on top of Mt. Washington Wednesday (morning) and mid 30s. That’s downright absurd.

      1. It’s definitely felt that way on most Sundays. Looks like next Sunday will be relatively cold, too. Has Wednesday been very mild, or am I imagining things?

        1. Many of them have been mild.

          A long time ago, Dave Murray, TV met. at WBZ, did some research and talked about it on the air that Wednesday and Sunday were the 2 most common days for Boston to get rain.

          It was a useless stat, but kind of interesting.

  53. I don’t even know what to say, cleaning out our basement and I am in a t-shirt running stuff to the recycling and I am not that cold!! Something is wrong with that!

  54. Was in Dublin Ireland 2 weeks ago and and the daffodils were almost blooming, way early. Even over there the weather is messed up.
    TJ

  55. Does anybody here know the email for a new comer. Baileyman said he will check us out, it is him. he posted like a book today. I don’t want to loose him.

      1. I think I got him old salty- this is a big one for us here. I just posted to him to hold tight.he blogged on the earlier post tonight. Are you sure that is the one to send.

    1. We’ve been doing it like this: coastal has an email address he gives them, though which he gives them the address for the blog.

  58. I just read from WW’s blog that NOAA sent air crafts out today to gather more data for the computer models which are struggling so much in this current pattern. This should help the models perform better moving forward, starting with tonight’s 0z GFS. Will be interesting to see what that has to say.

    WW is not giving up on this weekend’s storm and feels the “big one” could be coming a week later. All sounds great but I’ll believe this pattern change when I see it! Here is the entire blog:

    http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=721&Itemid=179

  59. Hard to believe it’s going to snow tonight. The skies are crystal clear… stars are so bright, they look like spotlights in the sky!

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