DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 28 – JANUARY 1)
A caution: Overnight some areas of rain and snow moved through and in some locations the ground is icy due to temperatures at or just below freezing where rain or partial snow melt occurred. Use caution exiting home / apartments and walking / driving on untreated surfaces, especially north and west of Boston. This will only last a short while as temperatures will rise above freezing during this morning and melt any of the ice. Our weather pattern continues to be one where we see most of the cold and snow in the western US, a very mild and dry southeastern US, and frequent but weak weather systems passing through our region between the two. Another such weather system passes by during tonight and early Wednesday, producing a light variety of precipitation. The next one on its heels will be a rain event Thursday. We enjoy a dry final day of 2021 on Friday thanks to an area of high pressure, and it won’t be all that cold for activities such as First Night in Boston that include many outdoor events. As 2022 arrives though, we’ll already be seeing impact from the next low pressure area coming along. Indications are that this will be a rain event too.
TODAY: Cloudy with spotty snow flurries and sprinkles of rain as well as patchy light fog early morning, then mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Light snow/ice/rain possible overnight. Lows 28-35. Wind N under 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light mix/ice away from coast, rain coast, mainly in the morning. Highs 37-44. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain, may start as freezing rain away from the coast. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain during the evening. Clearing overnight. Watch for black ice formation. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Increasing clouds. Lows 28-35. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 2-6)
Transition from mild/wet to cold/dry early in the period. Moderating temperatures and one or two systems bringing precipitation chances mid to late period as the active weather pattern continues.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 7-11)
Pattern remains active, temperature trend appears to be colder, potentially increasing opportunities for some snowfall.
A little friendly advice from your resident meteorologist:
Continue not to trust the medium range guidance beyond day 3, but this especially applies to the GFS at this time.
There was a hint of them all being a bit more on the same page yesterday, but that appears to have been fleeting and the GFS is returning to its often-outlier, often-incorrect place especially with things in the 4 to 8 day range. The most notable flaw I see right now is that it over-forecasts pretty much every low pressure area / precipitation event for the Northeast. Virtually ALL of these have ended up as weaker or much weaker systems. Ensembles: Better, but not even all that great.
** From a long-time colleague / friend of mine, regarding the December 2021 tornado outbreak..
Pardon the format break as I took this directly from an email text. **
Event summaries. Limited commentary and historical perspective
(for now, more coming soon!). Numbers are still subject to change
but it appears these are close to what actually happened.
Dec 10, 2021 Event
———————–
– 69 confirmed tors is the 2nd largest Dec tor outbreak.
– 90 fatalities is the deadliest Dec tor outbreak.
– 23 EF2+ tors puts it on the “significant” list for outbreaks (20 or
more EF2+). 2 of the tors were EF4.
– The Woodland Mills TN to McDaniels KY EF4 tracked 166 mi. This is
the 2nd longest reliable track for a single tor on record. The record
is still 174 mi for the Tri-State Tor in March 1925. The 219 mi often
quoted for the Tri-State Tor has been determined to be more than
one tor.
– The Woodland Mills TN to McDaniels KY EF4 existed for 2h58m. This
is second to the Tri-State Tor of ~3h.
– The Woodland Mills TN to McDaniels KY EF4 max winds were estimated
at 190 mph, just below EF5 strength.
– The Newbern TN to Elkton KY EF3 (separate supercell) tracked 123 mi
and existed for 2h04m. This makes a total of 16 tor on record tracking
at least 100 mi and a total of 12 tor on record existing for at least 2h.
– 2 tor tracking at least 100 mi in a single outbreak is 2nd on record.
Both the Superoutbreaks in April 1974 and 2011 had 3 each.
– There was a 3rd long-tracked tor associated with the primary
tornadic supercell. An EF4 tracked 81 mi from Bay AR to Samburg
TN. This preceded the 166 mi long-tracked tor.
– The most intense tornadic supercell tracked about 600 mi over a
period of 11 hr as a discrete entity. The supercell produced at least 7
other tors in addition to the two long-tracked tors. The record for a
discrete is 795 mi over a 17.5 hr period on Mar 12-13, 2006. The
600 mi supercell produced at least 7 other tors in addition to the 2
long-tracked tors. There have been 3 supercells documented that
have each produced 20 or more tors.
Dec 15, 2021 event
———————–
– 95 confirmed tor is the largest Dec tor outbreak on record. I checked
with WFO Des Moines and Omaha and this is an actual total, not
preliminary (I wanted to double check this as 95 is a lot for a derecho).
– 29 EF2 tors puts it on the “significant” list for outbreaks (20 or more
EF2+). No tor was EF3+.
– One EF2 in IA tracked 24 mi in just 14 min. That’s a forward speed
of 103 mph, which is apparently a new record for the fastest forward
motion of a tor, but there isn’t a lot of documentation on this kind of
record.
– 95 tors, but not a single tor fatality.
Other
——-
– 180 tor for Dec 2021 is most tor on record for this month, Previous
record for Dec was 99 in 2002
– The dynamics and set up for each of these events were very different
from a svr wx standpoint. Dec 10-11 was conducive to several discrete,
long-tracked, intense tornadic supercells. Dec 15 was conducive to
an intense squall line/QLCS with numerous short-lived, transient
mesocyclones at the lead edge of the squall line producing brief tors.
You can see the distribution of svr wx reports on the2 days were quite
different.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/211210_rpts.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/211215_rpts.html
What these outbreaks were not:
The largest tor outbreak on record
– 10 outbreaks have had over 100 tor
The largest winter tor outbreak on record
– Jan 20-21, 1999 had 127 tor
The deadliest winter outbreak on record
– Feb 21-22, 1971 had 123 fatalities
The deadliest outbreak on record
– 10 individual tor have had 100 or more fatalities
even before getting to totals for outbreaks
The outbreak with the most F2/EF2+ tors
– 16 outbreaks had have 30 or more F2/EF2+
The outbreak with the most F4/EF4+ tors
– 5 outbreaks had have 10 or more F4/EF4+
Very interesting #’s!
That 95 tornadoes from December 15… I don’t doubt it, but it’s clearly an example of an extreme verification effort by the local offices involved. Essentially going back, finding all the brief, fleeting TDS’s on radar, and investigating them in conjunction with damage reports. That’s evidenced by the many EF0/EF1 tornadoes in the count. Even the EF2’s were likely aided by the extreme forward speed of the event, allowing the storm motion itself to be a big contributor to the wind speed. This type of event more than 10 years ago may have had less than a quarter of the number of confirmed tornadoes just by detectability factors alone… having said that, December 15 was still one of the most anomalous weather days I can ever recall across the CONUS, maybe the most so.
Unfortunately, by the looks of the SPC outlooks, we’ll add more tornadoes to this winter’s tally over the next several days…
Thank you, WxW. Always enjoy your input. When do you return to NJ?
Hi Vicki, I’m already back! Went back several days ago, I was on duty for Christmas this year.
Hope everything’s well with you and that you had a nice Christmas!
WBZ radio anchor…
“Today we’ll see clearing but still cloudy.”
Sure..
Insane. That person should be FIRED!
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK !
Crippling snow fell overnight, shutting down airports and all traffic! Horrible situation! Accumulations of a “feather” dusting occurred. This much snow hasn’t fallen in Boston in over 100 years! Record shattering snow! The National Guard is being called out to help clear the snow! Oh what a tragedy!! OH !OH! OH!
Good morning and thank you TK.
Ho Hum BORORAMA!!
I was thinking the same thing, actual weather seen here, in this pattern, is kind of blah, dull and boring,
Conversely, Fairbank, AK received 2.43 inches of melted precip from its most recent event. A large front end dump, topped by freezing rain and ended as some plain rain, with the briefest temp rise to 40F.
Temp crash has followed, they are looking at 4-6 inches of snow today and a bigger snowfall Wed/Thurs.
The water content of their snowpack must be unusually wet.
Wonder what the spring melt will be like in Alaska in 3-6 months.
At least there is snow somewhere in this country.
And it continues to dump in the Sierras.
Oh well, what can one do about it?
And those of us who rely on Sierra snow pack to keep us out of droughts and severe fires are very grateful…..
Yup. This will definitely continue to help out for the rest of this year.
Must have been strange, as it turned warmer, to see the Sierras without much snow on them.
For sure. Macs cousins family in Tahoe had to evacuate this past summer. I was thinking this is a welcome event
Good morning TK and thank you.
Your comment about the BZ radio anchor somehow reminded me of a Yogism. When asked about a restaurant, Yogi Berra said “No one goes there nowadays, it’s too crowded.”
🙂 🙂 🙂
Love Yogisms!!
Hahaha. Love it
Those are funny… 😀
Thanks TK.
Thanks TK!
Tonight into tomorrow morning could see some coating-1″ type snow mainly to the west of Boston. Another in this long line of minor, sheared out weather systems, of which there will be at least several more to come.
The next 10 days will likely, somewhat quietly, turn out to be rather significantly on the warm side of normal. A major fail by long range modeling which had long suggested a pattern change to colder by this point. I would reiterate what I’ve said several times: until the -PNA and Southeast ridge combination relents, which there are no signs of within the range of reasonable predictability, bet on more of the same. MJO forecasts are also looking less favorable for any eventual pattern change.
Still early in the winter though. We’ve certainly seen what pattern persistence has done for both coasts over the past 2 months. I would be surprised if it holds like this for an entire cold season…
Thank you, TK!
As WxWatcher said, this is a loooong line of weak events. Just enough to annoy us all every 30-36 hours with something insignificant coming out of the sky and gray skies.
The Saturday precipitation streak will likely hit 4 this week, that is, 4 straight Saturdays with rain. I’ve got to help someone move on Saturday. That’ll be fun.
Nothing better than this for the Winter!
https://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2021122812/123/prateptype_cat.conus.png
Yeah, poor weather Sunday, not good !
We just saw how poor weather can help a less talented team (Pats) win a game. When the weather was better, the more talented team (Bills) dominated.
Poor weather only helps the Jaguars this Sunday and the Pats MUST win this game. Cause the last game is at Miami and even in Brady seasons where they were 14-2 or 13-3, usually one of those few losses was at Miami.
Miami has won 7 in a row. Pats will lose to Miami guaranteed.
The Pats were outmatched by Buffalo. The Pat’s defense
was one giant sieve!!!! They couldn’t stop a team of
grandmothers!
Mrs. OS believes it was due to Covid, either players coming down with it or recovering from it or enduring some sort of
long covid. NOT the same team we had been seeing.
Definitely not a guarantee.
This is why they play the games. 🙂
I knew you would say something like that.
Speak to me after the game. 🙂 🙂 🙂
I would agree in part with Mrs OS. In good part I also think this is what a seasoned Brady faced for his entire time with the pats…a lack of consistently good support.
There was no Miami fan who thought when they started 1-7 they would be in a playoffs going into week 17. First team in NFL history to lose 7 straight and win 7 straight in the same season.
If the Dolphins win out and the Patriots win vs the Jags three teams from the AFC could be in the playoffs.
JPD. I just finished Vicky and her mystery on Netflix. It is a wonderful movie. Thank you. My oldest and her family just lost their 17 year old Jack Russell so I think it would be too emotional for them. But I’ll let my son and family know.
I was caught off guard by the last two clips so researched. I don’t think below is a spoiler but just in case others want to watch took a screen shot
https://imgur.com/a/7Ow96Ih
Excellent! I’ll watch it again. Curious did you watched the dubbed version or French with English subtitles?
understand completely about your oldest.
That little girl was superb!!
Dubbed. And I suspect I’ll watch again also
Me as well. Next time will be the French version.
NAMS are running late. More than 45 minutes overdue.
What’s up?
Just for fun, I’ll bet on a Pats win. 😉
I opine on the operational runs of global models from 12z especially with regard to the weekend system…
ECMWF: This is how I think it plays out.
Canadian: Reasonable solution.
GFS: (In the style of JP Dave) what a joke!! Emphasis on the wrong piece of energy – too drawn-out, too slow. The GFS needs a tune-up.
Like we’ve been saying, all the operational models have struggled this cold season. The GFS though… oy. It has been atrocious. Which I find somewhat odd, because it had actually become my go-to for awhile in light of the worsening performance of the ECMWF. But that trend has reversed; none of them have been good, but the ECMWF has had a clear leg up for a couple of months.
My guess is the La Nina pattern suits the ECMWF’s strengths. We’ve seen how that model has a bad tendency to over-amplify the southern stream. But this year, there’s no southern stream to amplify. Conversely, the GFS, more so than the others, has seemed overwhelmed by the relentless speed of the polar jet.
I was wondering about what you elaborated on, and I agree. And what adds to the challenge about guidance is that you may have one set of biases for now and once a couple models get upgrades, the biases may shift, and then you have to figure them out again. It’s like trying to put a puzzle together except the pieces don’t always fit together the same way – they change!
A tragic loss.
https://twitter.com/wcvb/status/1475983978754711558?s=21
I spent a lot of Sundays listening to him and Pat summerall call games. I learned a lot about the game listening to John Madden. The documentary Fox aired Christmas day on John Madden was very well done.
A true legend. Grew watching him announce games & especially the thanksgiving day games & the turkey legs . A true legend !!!!!
As Vicki said above, Madden’s passing at 85 is a sad loss for us all. Then, just minutes ago I heard that Harry Reid, 82, died of pancreatic cancer. Two gut punches in one evening. May Harry and John, rest in peace.
Oh noooo. A very sad day indeed.
My accu dashboard as read 30 solid for a handful of days. Right now, though, it is -40 (that is a negative) in South Sutton. I clearly need to set up the new weather station.