Thursday December 30 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 30 – JANUARY 3)

La Nina / weak to moderate MJO mostly in phase 7 / positive NAO / etc… There are some of you who know what this means, and others that may not. Basically these 3 and other (etc) reasons as well are why our overall weather pattern is as it is and isn’t really changing all that much for now either. Highlights are quick-moving but not powerful storm systems in fairly regular and frequent succession, rain favored over snow, overall mild but brief cold. The next weak low crosses the region tonight and early Friday. A small bubble of high pressure moves in later Friday but with weak air flow and a lot of low level moisture, any clearing we see will be very limited. The next low, while not a strong system, will have more moisture with it, and we look for a rainy start to 2022 on Saturday. While the trailing frontal system from this low is to be somewhat aligned with the upper level winds, it won’t move offshore all that quickly, and with another wave of low pressure moving along it and upper level energy still to swing through, we stay unsettled though mild into Sunday as well, though rainfall will take the form of more showers than steady. Finally later Sunday colder air will arrive, but most of the precipitation will have exited and we may just see a few snow showers with its arrival. A brief but sharp cold shot follows for Monday as a chunk of cold air is pulled southeastward out of Canada and into the northeastern US, but this will come along with dry weather between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west.

TODAY: Cloudy. Area of drizzle and fog. Patchy light rain possible late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and fog. Chance of light rain. Lows 33-40. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain. Mostly cloudy midday on with a few breaks of sun possible as well. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT (NEW YEAR’S EVE): Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 42-49. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 38-45. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Areas of fog early. Highs 45-52. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH shifting to NW, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20 at times.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 4-8)

Fast-moving systems as the same general pattern continues. Unreliable guidance and difficulty in timing anything leads to a general idea of fair weather and moderating temperatures early in the period, unsettled weather mid period, fair and colder weather later in the period, but this is a low confidence outlook.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 9-13)

Same overall pattern but a hint at a colder trend. One or two systems may bring precipitation threats.

40 thoughts on “Thursday December 30 2021 Forecast (7:30AM)”

  4. Thanks TK. I’ve decided the Pacific NW has stolen our December. It is so not late December here which wouldn’t bother me if it were not so dreary.

    1. the south gets more snow then us on the this model. This winter SUCKS!!!! Put me on the Dave suicide watch list !

  8. From NWS…

    Rain may end as a period of snow Sunday
    night, as secondary frontal wave possibly tracks south of New
    England, as colder air advects southward into New England. Very low
    confidence forecast here, as this frontal wave will be emerging out
    of possible widespread convection over the Gulf States & TN valley
    Sunday. How this convection alters the emergence of the trailing
    frontal wave and downstream ridging remains to be seen. However a
    cluster of members from the GEFS and less so from the ECENS, support
    a swath of accumulating snow possible in the I-95 corridor from D.C
    to NYC to Boston. Again, very low confidence given the reasons
    mentioned above, but worth watching.

    1. Fat chance of this happening. TK only include possible snow
      showers. 🙂

      However, something for me to watch. 🙂

      Thank you for posting.

  14. Thanks TK. Very much in agreement with your thoughts, just a highly persistent pattern.

    Sunday night/Monday snow? Forget about it. I cannot recall one model fantasy setup like that ever verifying in reality (and said as much in my AFD last night haha). Otherwise, we’ll have to see how far north the push of 60+ degree weather gets with this upcoming system. Possible it makes it to SNE… but more likely halts over the mid-Atlantic. We finally get a good multi-day dry/clear stretch to follow.

    Longer range… as TK notes in his forecast, there are hints of a colder trend down the road, following what will be a very warm stretch relative to normal upcoming. We’ve seen these long range cold attempts fail literally every single time this season. This time? There are at least some changes across the Pacific in the ensemble guidance which could potentially support a colder pattern, which weren’t there on previous long range cold forecasts. It’s going to be gradual (think mid-January) and it still doesn’t scream cold/stormy pattern to me, but maybe some baby steps towards a more winterlike pattern.

  16. AO: Negative to positive to neutral mid month
    NAO: Negative to positive to Negative mid month
    EPO: negative to positive and looks to remain positive. ( this stinks)
    PNA. very negative to neutral (maybe positive mid month) We can only hope. I say something around mid to late month will open up the flood gates for some snowier situations along with the MJO phase 8. lets hope it takes its grand old time in this phase and goes into phase 1 as well 🙂 like I thought MJO could play more of a factor this winter than previous winters and well it is. Currently showing phase 7 temp and precip profiles and will be over the next week or so then hopefully phase 8 🙂

      1. we will have to wait and see, there are signs though 🙂 We could also see the MJO pull back into 6/7 models are all over with the MJO forecast but its working and so far has been a ok parameter to look at this winter season so far.

  17. Thanks, TK!

    Gray is the color of school vacation this week. I can’t figure out the solar info (W/m2) on the Blue Hill website, but I thought I heard on Channel 4 earlier in the week that this month has been the gloomiest December on record (least amount of % of sunlight.) at the Observatory.

  18. Ty WxW for your analysis and thoughts!

    GFS is still on its lunch break I see. It took a tiny step toward reality today (12z), but not enough.

  19. Gray is find . Looks like no snow in the near future , works for me & keep the bitter cold out as well .

  21. Good news …for me at least….is I have my new weather station up and running and it is no longer minus 40 in Sutton. But it is 40. The readings seem to be right on target. I’ll see how the rain bucket works when we get more than drizzle

  22. Great news Vicki , enjoy your new weather station with accurate readings. I too received a new weather station for Christmas from my wife to replace my 15 year old Davis vantage pro 2. Most of the sensors had failed this year and needed replacement. She replaced it with the exact same model just newer. After 25 years of being together she knows me well enough to know that not having a working weather station was driving me nuts., no more -78 degree dew point readings. Awesome Christmas gift!!

    1. Haha. I completely understand and well done to your wife. My kids had no idea mine broke nor did I when I asked. It stopped functioning on Christmas Eve. But I like that I couldn’t get to the old one and I can get to this one

      Enjoy yours. Is it set up?

  23. I set it up the day after Christmas. Unfortunately I have not replaced my anemometer because it’s 30 feet up on my roof. I had a neighbor with a ladder tall enough to reach the roof let me borrow it, and my brother who is a firefighter and not afraid of heights installed it up there for me the first time. That neighbor has since moved and I know have no way to get up there to reach it. If you or anyone else knows of a company that does such a service, I would very much appreciate their contact info.

    1. Yikes. That is high. My new one doesn’t have an anemometer for that reason. But it does have a lightning detector so I’m happy. If I figure what is wrong with the old one, I’ll get the anemometer back for that one

    2. My neighbor rents a bucket truck from Koopmans to put up his Christmas lights. There are businesses that decorate houses. I wonder if they could help you

  24. I will look into that thanks. My anemometer still works but sporadicly stops working for no reason. I guess the reed switch internally is getting worn after 15 years.

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