Saturday January 15 2021 Forecast (8:49AM)

112 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 15-19)

The arctic chill has hold of our region today, along with wind, so it’s bitterly cold despite bright sun. Bundle up if you have to be outside! The wind drops off tonight / early Sunday but we stay quite cold, recovering a little bit but staying cold and more tranquil Sunday as high pressure settles over the region. Then once again our attention turns to a storm racing this way from the southeastern US. It’s time to detail it, and the most likely track takes a primary low up through PA & NY State while a secondary starts to redevelop pretty much right over the WHW forecast area on Monday (MLK Jr Day). This track, with cold air in place to start, would allow the storm to start at snow for most areas west of the Cape Cod Canal, but probably rain or a brief rain/snow mix going to rain over Cape Cod and the Islands, and then a southeast wind and warming both surface and aloft would rapidly move a rain/snow line northwestward, but not before some snow accumulation, least near the coast, most over interior higher elevations. I’ll mention it again in the detailed forecast below but I’m expecting no accumulation on Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard, and Cape Cod east of the canal, a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH, before all of these areas change to rain. The precipitation will cut off in the afternoon as we get a dry-slot from the south. Wind will be an issue but most especially in coastal areas where wind gusts of 50+ MPH may occur in advance of the low’s passage, prior to the arrival of the dry slot. As the low lifts into Canada, some colder air coming around the back side may result in scattered snow showers (except rain showers at first Cape Cod) Monday evening. Look for dry but colder weather to dominate Tuesday/Wednesday.

TODAY: Clouds and snow showers outer Cape Cod and Nantucket with minor accumulation through midday then increasing sun. Sunny elsewhere. Highs 15-22. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill well below 0 this morning easing to around 0 at times later.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 1-6 except 7-12 South Coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH, diminishing.. Wind chill below 0 early.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Precipitation arriving overnight as rain or brief mix to rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod, snow elsewhere with accumulation a coating to an inch west of the canal through the I-95 corridor, 1-3 inches in the belt that runs along I-495 southwestward to I-290 / I-84 from the NH Seacoast to eastern CT, and 3-6 inches in the higher elevations of Worcester County (especially north), through southwestern NH. Lows 15-22 evening, rising overnight. Wind NE to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts Cape Cod / South Coast overnight.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Cloudy with rain through midday, then mostly cloudy but breaks of sun possible. Highs 38-45. Wind SE 15-30 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas morning becoming variable for a brief time, then shifting to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with passing snow flurries possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 20-24)

Cold front passes through early January 20 and brings another shot of cold air to the region to end next week. Watch for a possible storm system later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 25-29)

Temperatures near to below normal and a couple opportunities for wintry weather.

112 thoughts on “Saturday January 15 2021 Forecast (8:49AM)”

  4. Good morning and thank you TK.

    So much for better sampling of upper air. New forecast, same as the old forecast. Exactly what I expected.

    What a waste of cold.

    Now we wait and see what lies ahead.

    More crap, I am sure.

    1. If we could only move up the storm by 12 hours, I bet there would be a good thump of snow around here before the ultimate changeover. Oh well.

      1. If the time frame was moved up by 12 hours, the same thing would happen. It’s the pattern itself.

    1. It got down to 3 here in Woburn. All the way back up to 5 now. Look out! Intense heat!

      I actually LOVE this morning’s weather. 🙂 Heading out to brunch with my son right now…

  8. Thank you, TK.

    Love seeing single digits in Fahrenheit. I do remember when I first lived in the Netherlands and would see single digits all the time – after all, single digits in Celsius is kind of their temps from late October through mid March, day and night – and was thrown off at first. You get used to it quickly, and you even begin to `sense’ what, say, 6C is.

  13. I dont have my phone at the moment, but the Honolulu HI tide guage is showing the tsunami in the water depths.

    Its mild thankfully, but its fits of sudden, small water rises and falls.

  14. Just checked the 7-day forecast in the city I used to live in in the Netherlands, and it’s a very typical January forecast, with daytime temps ranging from 38F to 44F, and nighttime temps from 33F to 38F (yes, that’s the extent of the range), some fog on several days, some very light rain on others, and fleeting moments of sun on others. I recall the `sunny’ days in January there. Believe me, they were NOT sunny. You caught glimpses of sun, but it felt like the sun was very far away (which of course it is compared to Boston, given the latitude) and always shrouded in a layer of clouds.

    1. Early indications based on proxies for the ash cloud height suggest it is the most powerful volcanic eruption on Earth since Mount Pinatubo in 1991. Remains to be seen as to what the global climatic implications, if any, will be, with plenty of analysis ahead. But it’s on the scale of past events which have had at least regional, if not global, temporary implications for climate.

      1. That’s one occasion where nature laughs at us. The global cool-down after Pinatubo was pretty remarkable.

        I suspect this will create another one, but it remains to be seen to what degree (no pun intended).

        1. Oh great…Another year without a summer…How long does it take to start a change? I know that’s probably very difficult to answer at this point. Thank you

  18. I know nothing about volcanoes.

    I wonder if the latitudes could have a different hemispheric effect this go around.

    Mt Pinatubo: 15N latitude

    Tonga area: 20S Latitude

    Much more of earth´s landmass is in the northern hemisphere. How much of this ash can get circulated into the northern hemisphere?

  19. https://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/jma/fd/rb.html

    Go to around the top third of Australia, then look a ways to the right.

    It’s (explosion) that blob that kind of moves right to left, while the clouds just north of it move aren’t quite moving in the same directions.

    On a satellite capturing this much space, that’s covering a huge amount of sky.

  21. There’s an old saying that TK and I learned way back when we worked together in the 90s that still holds true today:

    “After arctic air, it rains”

  24. The Tonga area is very active in terms of Volcanic activity. There are Volcano’s in that area that have been going on for years at a time. This though was an amazing and terrifying explosive eruption with an under water Tonga volcano. There was a Volcano that violently Erupted in 2015 and created an Island within its Caldera if I understand the Volcano that Erupted this is not the same one. It be interesting to see the underwater geological changes.

  26. I’m hearing two foot waves can translate to six or seven, but I don’t understand much of the discussion. Maybe others here do

    Some areas in CA have closed beaches

    1. Its due to physical and geological oceanography. A two foot wave over deep ocean water can spin up and gain height in shallower water. You are only seeing the top part of the wave. If you are at the beach, you see a non-breaking wave out 40 feet out, then you see that it builds in height. Crests and then crashes as it gets within 10 feet of the shore. More of the wave becomes more visible due to the shallower water. This is just a basic explanation. There is a lot more to it.

  27. Pats game Keys.
    Patriots Pass rush needs to get to Josh Allen. (Judon has been quiet ever since he was on the Covid List)
    Patriots Run defense needs to do something.
    Patriots secondary needs to be on top of their game which they haven’t been the last 4 games

    Offense
    Mac Jones needs to protect the Ball
    Mac Jones needs to be able to read the field and get it to open targets. He hasn’t been all that consistent with this.
    Mix it up on first and second downs.
    Fast start. We need the Patriots offense of thrid Quarters in the first, second, third and 4th.
    Wilkerson has been activated which is very good for the offense.

    Pats needs to win the turnover battle. They have 1 loss when that happens.

    Lots of things need to go right but there is a chance any given Sunday.

    2. Wilkerson has not been activated. He was elevated from the practice squad, but according to the reports I’ve seen on Twitter, he will not be activated for tonight. Besides, if you’re counting on the #6 receiver on the depth chart to do something, then you have MUCH bigger problems.

      1. Oh well that sucks and he might be 6th on the depth chart but He is better than Stupid Harry. If harry gets some good plays tonight I will sing a different tune but he has been pitiful throughut his entire career and it didn’t take long for Wilkerson to look much better than harry. harry can block but thats about it.

        1. Actually Wilkerson will be available and be suiting up. We shall see what he role will be though. I hope in place of Harry.

    3. Allen was excellent last week. I’d he brings that game tonight, it will be a tough game.

      I’ll also add Mac Jones need wide receivers.

  29. I think this storm ends up colder then modeled out west and north. No major impact to sensible weather in our immediate area. We shall see.

    1. 8-10 am seems to be the max winds with the current projected timing.

      Might be nowcasting location of heaviest cells Monday morning for best mixing to the surface.

  39. Thanks Joshua for sharing that brief video of Park Square from 1976. I believe the old Trailways bus station was shown as well. 🙂

  40. That saying about arctic air is quite accurate. So many times I noticed back when I was just a weather nut kid that after some of our coldest outbreaks, the next storm was rain, or snow to rain, or some kind of conglomeration, but hardly ever a straight snowstorm for most of the region.

    “After arctic air, it rains.” Maybe not 100% of the time, but quite often, this is true.

    My mentor, Pete Leavitt, always used to say that it was easier for us to snow coming out of a warm spell than it was coming out of a cold one, and that is often the case too.

    Also, initial thoughts from the experts are that the amount of ash released by the current eruption will have minor impact on climate, at most – far below the level that Pinatubo impacted it.

  42. Currently 6 degrees in Buffalo as we approach game time.
    Orchard park is outside of the city, so it may be a degree or 2 colder there. I don’t know. Perhaps it is about the same.

  43. The April Fool’s blizzard (25.4”) was preceded by 60+ temperatures on Easter Sunday.

    TK – Didn’t an arctic outbreak precede the Blizzard of ‘78 though? Didn’t the same arctic high help us remain all snow by keeping the storm south of Long Island?

    New England has the strangest climate in all of North America I bet. Weather just does not follow the rules here. Persistent warm springs rarely occur, for example.

    1. Yes. It was very cold pre-1978, but that was a different pattern, and was majorly blocked. This isn’t. Transitory arctic air masses don’t hang around. They are shallow and short-lived and don’t hang around for the next system. They get out of the way.

  45. Patriots’ 1st quarter woes continue. Their defense is bad.

    On offense, I am not impressed.

    I’m afraid they’re going to get destroyed this evening.

    1. Allen is excellent and got his game back last week. I never count my team out. So please Pats get your act together and for heaven sakes find someone who can receive.

  48. I wasn’t expecting this so far with the Bills Patriots game. If any game was going to be a blowout this weekend I was thinking it was going to be Steelers and Chiefs.

    1. I said above If Allen brings the game he played last week to tonight, it would be a problem. I didn’t think it would be this bad though.

      And the positive in me says there is always a second half.

    2. Eh, I guess a little? To me it’s more so personnel decisions and overall lack of talent on both sides of the ball.

    3. Mcdaniels is an exceptional coach….if he has quality players to coach.

      I’d say it is all on BB’s inability to draft. The wide receivers he chose for this year as Mac’s first choices are equal in stats to Boyd who is Cincinnati’s third choice. BB did this to Brady also. How many times did we hear him say he was getting older and needed support. Remember, when welker was Brady’s first choice. When he went to Denver, he was their third.

        1. I suspect you know but by choice, I mean the QBs choice when he looks down field in who to throw to. I worded it badly

  50. This game is an indictment on Buffalo.

    They have 14-2, 15-1 kind of talent and went 11-6. Major underacheivement.

    Conversely, during their 7 game win streak, the Pats did not play against Nick Chubb, Derrick Henry, played Buffalo in a hurricane that evened a mismatch. Had those players been available, the Pats wouldn´t have finished 10-7.

    I´m not stunned by what is happening tonight.

  53. My commentary on the Pats…

    Am I disappointed? Yeah, but no.
    Did I expect them to win? No, but I knew they were capable, only if things were executed nearly perfectly from star to finish. Buffalo is a better team. Period. You know, it’s ok. We were #1 for a long, long time. I’m fine with how things ended. We have a great young QB and I think we’ll have some fun seasons ahead. 🙂

    I will be rooting for the Bills to go all the way. They deserve it. My only bias is that they get great snow squalls. 😉

  54. Guidance seems to have a pretty good handle on this thing now. Only model that seems a bit wonky is the HRRR.

  55. Thoughts about that game.
    1. Mac Jones came to play he was actually the bright spot tonight.
    2. None of the interceptions were on Mac Jones tonight neither were the sacks.
    3. They need to figure out the defense. They need speed and length on the outside. Bill needs to go to the drawing board to figure out how to stop RPO’s
    4. Patriots pass defense strength was more based on teams that were one dimensional.
    5. Pass catchers need to be put in a dam freezer and have frozen balls thrown at their hands.
    6. Bill needs to get rid of Harry.
    7 Agalor, Bourne, Wilkerson, Meyers should be the only receivers left on the Patriots all others should be let go to make room for Large speedy receivers from draft which is deep this year.
    8. Need a true shutdown corner. Also deep this year
    9. For a rookie QB Mac Jones did a really good job this year and I feel will only get better for next season. I personally was thinking 10-7/11-6 prior to the season and a wildcard team so they did as I expected.
    10 next year we play the NFC and AFC North so the receivers better be able to play in the cold.
    Away: Packers, Bills, Raiders, Cardinals, Steelers Browns, Vikings, Dolphins, Jets
    Home: Bills, Bengals, Colts, Ravens, Bears, Lions, Dolphins Jets
    One of those games could be in Germany or Mexico.

    1. Team I am hoping winds in the AFC is the Titans. I wouldn’t mind if the Bengals went to the superbowl either. In the NFC. Rams or 49ers. I would like to see Jimmy G get a ring.

    2. Ugh, if that is indeed their opponents I feel terrible about next year. I only see about 7 wins there

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