Monday January 24 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)

172 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 24-28)

A bubble of high pressure will bring fair and cold weather to our area today. A small low pressure area cutting north of the region brings a warm front toward us tonight and through the area early Tuesday with some light snow except mix/rain South Coast, followed by a brief interlude of milder air during the day Tuesday. After that, the low’s cold front will swing through and return cold but dry weather to us for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next disturbance which returns clouds and the chance of some snow showers by Friday…

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 26-33. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Periods of light snow late evening and overnight with accumulations of generally under 1 inch but up to 1 inch possible, Lows 18-25 evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with lingering snow showers except mix/rain showers South Coast. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 20-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 0-8 except 8-15 Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH. Wind chill below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 24-31. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 23-30. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 29 – FEBRUARY 2)

Watching the January 29-30 weekend for a potential winter storm threat. Model guidance remains variable and inconsistent, as is usually the case. However the pattern supports at least something nearby, if not directly impacting the region, favoring the first half of the weekend, followed by a shot of windy/cold weather. Cold end to January then perhaps a slight moderation and a little unsettled weather to start off February.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 3-7)

Transition to a milder pattern gets underway but may involve some additional unsettled weather between milder air trying to move up from the south and still cold air to the north.

172 thoughts on “Monday January 24 2022 Forecast (7:40AM)”

  2. I see you are not biting on anything just yet. I understand, but clearly it is getting more interesting. Will be fun to watch, no matter what actually happens.

    Question. can this pattern potentially support a monster of a storm?

    1. When the models continue to signal a powerful storm run after run in the same general area, then usually, you do get a powerful storm. There’s something there that they are all latching onto. The devil is in the details. And that’s still unknowable this far out.

      If I’m tracing it properly on the GFS, the upper-level energy responsible for the system will move inland from the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. That’s when we’ll start to have a bit more clarity hopefully.

    2. WE all know VERY WELL that models are unpredictable. I absolutely agree with you though. Watching and following them is easily one of the best parts of this blog.

    1. We did as well. I had to look twice in the dark, wee hours of the morning to see if my car had changed from dark grey to white !!

      1. Indeed . It’s weird being home during the day now & more so having Mondays off . My schedule is Tuesday- Saturday so when I get out at 7am Sunday am I’m not back until Tuesday night at 11 . It’s early on so it’s going to be a major adjustment. It’s good for my wife as we are at BI Boston now for an appointment as I can go to most of that now

  8. Thanks TK. Fun week of tracking.

    Rare to see most major models all onboard with something and starting to be consistent.

    1. Yup. No matter how it turns out. A Big hit, an inside runner, and ots. Still fun to watch. here is hoping for the big hit. 🙂

  12. I am sure this will end up west and deliver rain to a lot of the area. It’s just the way this winter has gone, follow the trends.

    1. I fear the same as well. However, until that is etched in stone,
      I hold out some hope.

      Quite a Westward shift over6-12 hours with both the GFS and the CMC. Amazing! Before that, the obvious trend was well\
      off shore. Now this(#)&(!#&()!)(#)(&#(!)#(*()!

      Let’s see what the 12Z runs show.

  13. The 12Z NAMs are advertising an inch of snow overnight, while
    the HRRR says, weil mostly a dusting to 1/2 inch or so, perhaps
    isolated 1 inch totals.

  14. Thanks, TK

    Again, a wonderful story about your Mom on NBC last night. Quite moving!

    SAK, you may have said this before here, but, are you ever on WSAR in Fall River? I heard Gary this morning, filling in for Rob.
    What stations/networks are normally your responsibility?

    1. Since I usually work at night, I’m not on WSAR most of the time. However, I’m covering the afternoon shift today and tomorrow, so I’ll be doing the live forecast around 12:20 both days, as well as the recorded evening and overnight forecasts.

      A lot of the stations that I do are all around the country. Around here, the ones I do are WXEX in Exeter, NH, WMVY on Martha’s Vineyard, and the Renew-FM group of stations (Map of their stations and coverage area – https://renewfm.org/about/stations/)

      2. Thanks!
        Where are you heard around the country? Maybe I’ll try to listen in livestreaming off a station’s website. Are you heard in the Caribbean, too?

        1. On my normal night shift, I can be heard at night and/or morning drive in:

          Randolph, VT
          Bangor, ME
          Exeter, NH
          Martha’s Vineyard, MA
          Renew-FM all across MA/RI/Southern NH
          Raleigh, NC
          Boynton Beach, FL
          California, MO
          Commerce, TX
          College Station, TX
          Langdon, ND
          Grafton, ND
          Fargo, ND

          On the weekends, when I work the morning/early afternoon, there are another dozen or two locations to add to that list.

  17. I like the 12z GFS.

    Virtually no snow in Marshfield, to a healthy amount right near Boston.

    If I need to see snow, its a half hour drive.

    Otherwise …… no shoveling, no impact on my home parking, no cleaning off the car and I can wear flip flops outside of work.

            2. With that kind of pressure, we’re lucky there’s not a stronger high closer to the US/Canadian border in this projection. While there is a pressure gradient, it could be a loss worse.

  19. Broad window January 28 – February 8 is the regions best time to gain on seasonal snowfall. Part of this includes the transition back toward that milder pattern.

    I’ve already accepted the the fact that if I get this seasoned snowfall acceptably correct it’s going to be for the wrong reason.

  21. The tides this weekend are growing in range, as we head towards perigee (moon closest to earth in its orbit) and a new moon.

    10.6 ft and 10.9 ft Sat and Sun morning’s at Boston.

    If we get wind and surge, hopefully it would maximize Saturday afternoon at low tide or even Saturday evening’s high tide, which has a much lower height. (8.9 ft) That’s an extra 1.7 ft of room compared to Saturday morning to accept surge.

    1. 977 mb, just SE of Nantucket. I hit the like button.
      How many iteration will we have between now and event day???

      He he he. Should be fun

    1. For those who want snow, this is NOT good because it speaks of a large pressure gradient that’s missing, because there is not a great cold high to our north, as currently projected.

  33. I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.
    I will not get too excited about the Euro.

    2. I have a kid for detention. I am having him write this on the board.
      Hahahahaha 🙂

      I heard your 12:20 live cast on SAR. Nice job.

  34. Trying not to get excited this far out, but it’s hard not to be a little hopeful. Just need to keep reminding myself this thing is ages away, relatively speaking.

  36. I am hoping we get some snow out of this storm threat Saturday. Things look encouraging but still time for things to change.

  39. I’m we better get a registration on the Richter scale when Jp Dave sees the euro. I am will be checking with the US Geological Institute.

    1. I saw it awhile ago. Not going to get anything out of me as it is too early.
      However, I am polishing off the Holy Crap Batman And the Cowabunga just to be ready in case they are needed.

      I think with ratio, Euro would have 2 feet plus across Eastern sections!
      if 15 to 1, then 30 inches plus!!!
      That is my kind of storm. Now we just have to get it in here.

  42. One thing with this system is that it is moving very quickly with no blocking in place. So the window for very heavy snow, if everything worked out, is not going to be long enough to see those epic 2-3 feet Nemo snow totals. We are probably capped at 12-20″ with up to 2 feet in the jackpot/banding areas IF everything comes together perfectly.

    That said, the Euro solution is so intense that it could literally stall briefly and do a cyclonic loop as it bombs out. I am a bit skeptical of a solution that extreme…950 mb noreasters at the benchmark are pretty rare!

    1. Blizzard of 2013 the NAO was slightly positive. You don’t always need a negative NAO to get blockbuster snowstorms here.

    2. Let’s see. ON the total qpf chart for the Euro, it has 1.93 inches for Boston or very close to it.

      at 10:1 that of course is 19.3 inches
      at 11:1 it is: 21.23
      at 12:1 it is: 23.16
      at 13:1 it is: 25.09
      at 14:1 it is: 27.02
      at 15:1 it is: 28.95

      So what would the ratio be on this run?

      500 mb temp about -23C
      700 mb temp about -8 C

      What would it be in snow growth region? Somewhere between those 2 heights, approx 10,000 to 18,000 feet. I am not sure the exact height and I am sure it is different each event.

      I’d say we would be looking at ratios of 12:1 to 15:1 IF and Only IF the Euro verified. So that is 23-29 inches.

      Of course, this is a pure guess, optimistic that it may be. 🙂
      It was just a fun exercise.

  43. Best “beyond 3 day” signal I’ve seen in quite some time. Note that both times this has happened it has involved a system that had energy/moisture from pretty far south. The guidance keyed on a significant storm for MLK Day pretty far in advance (big track issue aside, it still had the idea of an important storm). This doesn’t guarantee anything, but it is definitely a tiny bit less of an uncertainty than many other systems/threats have been.

    2. I have a better signal. Just as I sent Eric’s link that marks shared to my kids, Macs and my song came on the radio 😉 🙂

        1. I’m looking for extensions for the generator. I think the ones we have are still attached to Christmas lights and buried under snowice 🙁

  45. Its going to happen as im no longer in New England. Both Gfs and Euro have going to a warm core system if I am reading the models correctly

    1. IMO it would be too early for anything more than a map that says something like “significant snow potential”. I wouldn’t even bother today. Not up to me of course. 😉

      I won’t name the source but somebody was showing model numbers last night for Saturday (day 6).

      2. I have seen early-on snow maps that carve out areas with words such as light potential, moderate potential, and heavy potential

  47. I definitely agree with the sentiment that this is the best day 5+ storm signal in a long time. But there seems to be a little too much blind faith in the models going on because of that. We’ve been preaching all winter to use a lot of caution beyond day 3. The relative degree of model consistency with this threat doesn’t really change that for me. There have been plenty of times where the models have fallen into a “group think” philosophy with systems like this and failed.

    I think there will ~probably~ be a strong storm somewhere near the Eastern Seaboard come Saturday, but we won’t know much more than that for at least another 2 days. IMO, at this early stage, the bigger risk for missing out on snow in SNE would come from a track that’s too far west, bringing rain into the equation…

    2. Oh you’d better believe I’m sticking with my day 3 rule, still, despite the “signals”. I’ve already had at least 3 private messages from people asking me how much snow we’ll be getting. 😉

  48. I like the 0 to 30 inch call by JPD. That may indeed verify.

    SAK, thanks for sending us the list of cities where you can be heard.

    1. Starting with late afternoon forecasts on Monday, Saturday will move to day 5. For morning updates, it’s day 6.

      For example, my forecast this morning, which included today (day 1), Tuesday (day 2), Wednesday (day 3), Thursday (day 4), Friday (day 5) for section one, and then days 6-10 were Saturday through next Wednesday, etc.

      If that forecast is updated now, today is largely over, so the new day 1 becomes Tuesday, making Saturday the new day 5. 🙂

      That is why Eric is referring to Saturday as day 5 now.

        1. Sorry hit send too fast during a rousing game of go fish with granddaughter Eric’s forecast was early afternoon. Way too confusing

          1. He probably figured that it would be seen more late in the day, essentially counting today as “mostly done” so advancing Tuesday to day 1. I’ve done that myself a few times.

              1. I usually like about 3PM as a general cut-off time if I had to choose one. My explanation above is probably about as clear as we can lay it out. Basically this morning, today is day 1.
                Tonight, tomorrow is day 1.
                I guess it’s where do we decide the change is? Usually the whole day 1, day 2 thing was always kind of used between forecasters and we just had a general unspoken rule that sometime around mid or late afternoon we stopped thinking of today as day 1 and started thinking of tomorrow as day 1 instead. I think it was probably based on when the NWS updated their zone forecasts and “TODAY” was gone, and it started with “TONIGHT”.

                That’s how my seniors / mentor went by it in the private sector as well. 🙂

  53. Kevin L’s Ch 25 FB post from 3 hours ago is exactly how this should be done today for mainstream media’s social media pages, IMO. Very nicely laid out and explained. No room for confusion there.

  56. Windshield wiper in action. Keep to me is system is there. Details will come in to picture slowly.

    1. Pretty much as always. 🙂

      Day 3 rule. In the mean time, take your dramamine and enjoy the ride! 😉 hehe!

  57. Harvey showed 2 possibilities on track, either off the coast at the benchmark (snow) or hugger (snow to coastal rain).

    I guess that means that OTS is not an option?

    1. There are more than just 2 possibilities on a track, so yes, that’s still an option. So is an inside runner. ALL of those options are on the table. There’s actually a RANGE that counts as the possibilities. But on TV they will often show it that way for the sake of simplicity.

    2. OK strike that…..replace with “in the vicinity of the benchmark” 🙂 Pretty close though.

      All I know is that I see a beautiful deformation band across eastern CT into Worcester County.

      2. Nah, I was being a bit of a dick. 🙂 I knew what you meant.
        Every now and then, I get like that. My bad. I am sorry.

  60. Mark I hope that band comes over to my part of CT. It looks real nice for your area at the moment.

    1. Way too early to get excited about that….a solution like the 18z GFS (or worse) is still entirely possible.

  62. Using the CIPS analogs, the top analog based what on what the GFS is showing right now is March 3, 2009. (This is based on about 15 different parameters). That storm dropped 6-12″ on the region.

    The Top analogs are:
    00z 3/3/2009
    00z 2/15/2007
    06z 2/5/1995
    00z 2/11/2005
    12/z 1/16/1983
    06z 2/17/1996
    06z 2/14/2014
    12z 12/16/1981

    The analogs also show a 30-40% chance for blizzard conditions for at least 1 hour across most of eastern Mass.

    1. LOL, we are thinking alike.

      That Valentines Day 2007 storm was a monster and dropped 30″+ across portions of eastern Upstate NY. Here in CT though, we literally had inches of sleet along with some snow. Heaviest stuff I have ever had to remove from the driveway. No desire to have a repeat of that.

      1. Mark, that was my last year at Siena and was living in Troy at the time. Massive storm. I remember going out to my car in the morning to get to work at Albany Med and my car was entirely buried on the side of the road, all I could see was the antenna.

  65. I hope snow lovers are not disappointed. I work for a funeral home it’s so hard to reschedule with church and cemeteries and hard for our families to get final closure. Also for my coworkers we have to extremely careful after the snow ❄️ stops melt and refreeze in the parking lot.

    1. I wish you the very best. Snow is so difficult for many. I saw the potential for coastal flooding for this also which always breaks my heart

  69. Mark, thanks for sending the maps. One of them has probabilities of more than 12 inches, I believe. Parts of Eastern New Brunswick, Canada, are in the 100% probability zone. Am I seeing that correctly, or is my slight color blindness a factor?

  70. I find this possible Saturday event interesting ……

    Surface wise ….. looking btwn 84 hrs through 120 ….. different than other systems this year, I think

    The projected surface map looks rather benign at 84 hrs (late Thursday). Its not like there´s a big area of rain and snow gathering in the central US or the Gulf coast that you might see 2 days before a big hit in New England.

    I think a big player is this projected narrow ridge poking up on the west coast and how much a disturbance rounding the east side of the ridge really deepens a downstream trof. The trof than directs what is initially some moisture and maybe a low sitting over the Bahamas and lifts it NNE, exploding it potentially.

    Just have to know the amplitude and location of the western trof and similarly, what the downstream trof´s amplitude, location, etc will be to know how it will influence the strength and track of the low.

        1. I did also. I have indoor fairie lights that go on and off on schedule and I will have to change all very soon

  72. Comparing the 00z NAM´s 84 hr (500mb) chart to the 12z EURO´s and 12z GFS´ (500 mb chart) ….

    they all have a fairly similar western ridge, they all have a jet streak coming atop the ridge in Central Canada and they all have developing trofs around the Great Lakes.

    I would say of all 3 features, their Great Lakes developing trofs look a bit different.

    Start of 00z GFS about a half hour away. 🙂 🙂 🙂

  73. Honestly a lot has to go right for this to happen. We have no blocking in place, the trough really has to dig to get a Euro solution. My confidence is below average on this one.

  75. Tonight’s snowfall is going just as expected.
    Colleague of mine forecast 2-4 inches. Oops. That’s not going to work out. Been there, done that… 😉

    As of 1:00 a.m. I have 0.4 inch at Woburn.

  77. Good morning. A bit more snow here in Coventry CT this AM than I expected. We have about 1.5” and the plow has been by twice.

    Regarding the late week storm, the 6z GFS and 0z CMC are now more of a sideswipe while the 0z Euro is still a huge hit with a raging blizzard and 15-24” for pretty much everyone. 6z Icon is a big hit as well with 12”+ but mainly for eastern MA.

  80. Good morning fellow model watchers.

    6z gfs concerns me. not liking that off shore track Hope it is an outlier and not a sign of things to come

    Also, look at hour 84vof 6z Nam.
    My eyes may be deceiving me, but looks like a new cold Canadian high is beginning to move in with a period of snow. Would this contribute to an off shore track???

    I am beginning to think that an inside runner/coastal hugger may be off the table and we are looking at a direct hit or side-swipe or complete off shore miss.

    Can’t wait for the 12z runs.

    1. Inside is not completely off the table as this is still a day 5 threat now. Can probably rule that out within 24 hours.

      ECMWF is a bit of an outlier as it has an unrealistic loop in this pattern – not entirely impossible but also not very likely.

      UKMET looks too intense to me.

      GFS / CMC more realistic at this point, but we still have a long way to go.

  81. Blend euro and GFS and we get an 18-24 inch system.

    Euro stalls and is a once in 10 year system. 00z GFs was much closer than 6z GFS. It’s been jumping slightly drop run to run.

Comments are closed.