Thursday February 24 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)

120 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

The final 5 days of February are here to remind us it’s very much still winter. After our warm anomaly yesterday, we’re back to a cold reality today as high pressure in eastern Canada feeds plenty of polar air into our area. The cloud cover you see this morning is not from our coming winter storm but from an advanced area of moisture which is drying up as it moves eastward, passing to our south. These clouds will yield to more sun during the day today before our storm forerunners move in this evening. Low pressure will be heading toward New York from the Ohio Valley then redevelop and pass just south of New England on an east northeast track Friday and Friday night. This is a wintry precipitation set up for us with a cold high to the north, so we all start out as snow, and a good portion of the region stays snow through the event. The wild card remains how much warm air works in aloft to change that snow to sleet, and at this point I think anywhere from the South Coast to the I-90 area is in the game for this. If there is a change to rain at all it will be for a briefer time along the immediate South Coast and most likely Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard. Areas that have mixed or changed should end as snow or snow showers Friday evening as colder air is ready to wrap right back in around the departing low pressure area. With all of this in mind, when it’s over, I expect accumulations to be 1-3 inches over the islands and perhaps immediate beaches on the South Coast, 3-6 inches from there to just south of I-90 including much of southeastern MA, RI, and eastern CT, and 6-10 inches north of there through the bulk of MA and southern NH, with a few spot accumulations of up to 12 inches favoring north central MA and interior southern NH. After our storm, it’s cold and mainly dry for the weekend and Monday, to end the month, with the exception of the chance of some snow shower activity Sunday as a reinforcing cold front moves by.

TODAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 31-38. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow arriving overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow, heavy at times in the morning except changing to sleet South Coast to near I-90 and possibly to rain for a time immediate South Coast, and may mix with sleet I-90 north by late morning. Precipitation becoming lighter and changing to all snow regionwide in the afternoon. (See discussion above for accumulations.) Highs 28-35. Wind NE-E 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible near the South Coast.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 9-14. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill near 0.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 22-29. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

Temperatures below normal. Watch for 1 or 2 disturbances with precipitation threats.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

The overall pattern continues to look colder than normal with one or two precipitation threats during this period.

120 thoughts on “Thursday February 24 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)”

    1. Sometimes their map can look more “snow evil” but if you look at their actual snow forecast #’s (not the ranges), most of them are 10 inches or less in that 8-12 area. There are a couple over 10’s in there.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.
    Great discussion and I like your 6-10 call. As of now I think sleet makes a brief visit to Boston for 1 to perhaps 3 hours followed by some more snow.
    I still think 5 to 7 nches pre sleet and 1 to 3 inches post sleet. My Logan prediction is 8 inches.

  3. Thanks TK. I take it Natick would be in line for approximately 6 to 8 inches? Do you see the sleet reaching the pike to help keep the totals a bit in check?

  4. Thanks TK !

    Sun burn watch continues here. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    22-29F Monday. Oh dear goodness. I’ll be in 19 layers, at least.

      1. 86F in Tampa, about 82F here as the Gulf seabreeze kicked in. Mid 60s dewpoints.

        Similar temps today and tomorrow, low 80s Saturday.

        Sunset @ 6:25pm which I love just as much as the warmth.

              1. No. 🙂

                We are booked into a dolphin cruise later today.

                We have mini golfed, run a 16 lap track race (at 40 mph 🙂 ), spent 5 hrs on the beach each day and I have sought out places that make good painkillers.

                We have a friend who deep sea fishes when he and his family join us. Also, he’ll do the pole in the sand thing for hours, casting the line way out into the ocean.

      1. Thanks JPD. Was asking TK to clarify my reading of Friday’s forecast. Seemed that if sleet were to make it north of the pike, it would definitely cut the snow totals in Natick. I appreciate all your info.

        1. If the sleet occurs, then most definitely it will cut down on
          the snow accumulations. See posts below from the NAMs.
          The NAMs are really pushing the sleet. We shall see.

    1. Even with the bagginess of the isobars along the south coast suggesting redevelopment, the primary low is west enough in combo with the retreating high. I’m guessing that’s high octane warm advection, probably tough to keep the entire column cold enough.

      1. I am inclined to agree. TK, SAK and WxWatcher
        discussed this and were concerned yesterday.

        The NAMs and the HRRR are holding firm on this
        sleet occurring.

        OH, it will be a Wintry storm for sure, with 3-6 inches
        of up front snow with 1/4 inch or so of sleet topped off
        by 1-3 inches of powder snow. Something like that anyway seems to be in the cards.

        I’d MUCH rather it be all snow without any SLEET!

        We can hope, but I fear the warm layer will prevail. Hope not.

  13. Then along comes the WRF-FV3 Hi-Res model that stops the sleet right about at Boston and there only briefly.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022022412&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Total Kuchera Snow

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_acc&rh=2022022412&fh=40&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    That is quite a departure from the NAMs!!! to say the least!

    MY gust keeps nagging me about the NAMs. Could they be correct?????

  14. 6Z EURO appears to keep it mostly snow with 1 to 1.25 inch
    total qpf across SNE. (850mb temps remain cold, but we can’t see other layers where it could possibly be warm enough to still cause some sleet). I do not have access to the precip type.

    1. Thanks JpDave. Isn’t the euro the same resolution as the NAM? Someone mentioned yesterday the NAM’s resolution is why it was seeing sleet when other models weren’t

      1. SAK mentioned the NAM, but he may have been
        Referring to the NAM 3KM, which as the name indicates has a resolution of 3 kilometers. The Hi-Res Euro is
        9 KM. The regular NAM is 32KM and the 12KM NAM is , well
        12KM. Not sure which NAM is the NAM on pivotal weather.
        I want to believe that it is the 12KM version, but I do not know for sure. Perhaps someone here knows.

        1. The one labeled NAM in Pivotal Weather is the 12km. In the column to the right, they have the 3KM version as well.

          The RDPS (a.k.a. RGEM) is 10KM, but there is a 2.5KM version that only goes out 48 hours (WeatherBell has it).

          The WRF-ARW and WRF-NSSL are both 3KM, as is the HRRR.

          Having said all of that, the horizontal resolution was not what I was referring to yesterday. The NAM has more vertical layers, compared to the GFS/Euro (I don’t know about the other models), so it is more likely to sniff out a thin warm layer aloft compared to the other models.

  16. Interesting discussion from the NWS regarding the Warm Layer and possible sleet. The layer appears to be between
    750 and 800 mb or approx 6,000 to 8,000 feet altitude.
    On most of the charts we can see 850 mb or about 5,000 feet and 700 mb about 10,000 feet or 92 mb or about 2,500 feet.
    we don’t see layers between them and if the warm layer is between them, we can’t see that on the maps we non-professionals can see.

    The most difficult portion of this forecast revolves around a warm
    nose in the 750 to 800 mb layer. As usual in these southwest flow
    events, the northward extent and speed of the warm nose will make a
    huge impact in snow accumulations. It is likely to be snowing at 1-
    2″ per hour when the warm nose will attempt to transition Ptype to
    mainly sleet. So if this arrives 1 or 2 hours early/later than
    expected; it will have a big outcome on accumulations. The NAM has
    been fastest and furthest north with this mid level warm layer. It
    has been pretty consistent over several cycles and tends to do well
    in these scenarios. That being said; do not want to put all our eggs
    in that basket. Given there will be strong frontogenetic forcing and
    heavy snow; sometimes this can delay the arrival of the warm layer.

    2. If you are on Pivotal Weather, you can click on a point to get a sounding for whatever hour you’re at. While you may not understand much of it, if you look for the 0C line, (it’s in blue and goes up slanted from left to right), you can see where the temperature (red) and dewpoint (green) lines go just above 0C between 750mb and 800mb.

      Tropical Tidbits also does this, and the sounds are MUCH easier to see with a white background instead of black. (Example: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=nam3km&runtime=2022022412&fh=28&lat=42.49&lon=-71.43&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular)

      1. Thank you! I see it. So, we do have access to this.
        I forgot about the soundings. Excellent information to have!

  17. Being north of Boston, I expect to see a little more snow BUT being close to the shore I expect to see less in accumulation because the snow might be heavier / more water soaked.

    In any case, heavier snow with sleet (if it gets this far north) and more snow followed by freezing temps just doesn’t add up well.

  26. My son was telling me about ATTs first net network. It doesn’t go down in emergencies and reaches remote locations. It’s first responder specific. I’m not sure if the definition of first responder widened because of the pandemic. Some here may either qualify or have a relative who does

    I was thinking of weather emergency outages so thought I’d mention here.

    1. Yes and I think it is COLD today!!
      It is 28 here this PM compared to 70 yesterday.

      42 degrees colder this PM than yesterday PM!!

      And SNOW tomorrow!

      1. Sounds good. A thump of snow, then sleet and another light covering of snow. A messy day, but NOT a big snow storm. 🙂

  37. Was watching Eric just now and I think he was leaning on the GFS . He was mentioning sleet above the Pike but late in the game.

  38. Over the last couple hours the high res short range models are starting to show that warm layer and resultant sleet very much more the way the NAM has been doing for a couple days, if not even a little further north. One of them brings solid sleet right into northeastern MA too.

      1. I didn’t see Harvey yet today but he’d be staying very updated on that, so if it’s influencing him it will show up on his maps for sure.

  39. I just sat on the deck for quite a while. It is surprisingly comfortable but then there is no wind. It’s also eerily quiet and I have no idea why as I usually hear traffic from a nearby highway

    1. Yes, but still delivers 8 inches on the Kuchera scale to Boston.
      I’ll take the 8 as it should put us over the seasonal average, which is what I want to see. Although, clearly Logan could easily come in at 5 or 6. We shall see. I am guessing the transition to sleet comes sooner rather than later. 🙂

      I do NOT have my expectations high on this event. I am thinking any where from 5 to 10 at my house. Earlier today I said 8. We shall see how far off I am.

  41. 00z RAP brings the sleet line almost to the NH border and has no snow amounts above 10 inches.

    2. Been seeing all of the model output here but what does meteorology say? I know the models are only part of the science.

    1. Well now I’m depressed enough to be reposting the same tweet.

      I don’t care if we get only two inches, I’m planning a pajama day for tomorrow

      1. Well, 10AM will be after the majority of the accumulation will have occurred anyway. You’ll have more than 2. 🙂

  46. Snowing heavily here in JP. Looks like it started around 4AM give or take. I’d say close to 3 inches so far. Flakes were small but they just started getting bigger. Really nice sized flakes now.

  48. Winds are EAST right along the coast, but NE inland. I suspect
    this will create an area of additional convergence enhancing the snow a little bit more.

    Now it is just a question of when the snow transitions to sleet.
    Hopefully, it is after we have received the bulk of the snow.

    I don’t like that it is sleeting in Sutton already. Seems a bit early, but likely indicates that the NAM was spot on the whole time.

    Actually, the 6Z NAM predicted SLEET in Sutton by 7AM

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022022506&fh=6&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

  49. 29 in Swampscott with heavy snow. Heavier when we are under a darker yellow band. The snowplow guys are doing their first run in our complex.

Comments are closed.