Winter? What Winter?

68 Comments

3:22PM

Well, it may not be true that we’ve seen no winter at all, but it sure has been easy compared to last year. Hints coming here and there, but they never linger. One such hint may come on Saturday night, with some snow showers as a disturbance comes along in the northern jet stream. And that northern jet stream is key to a storm missing us well to the south on Sunday. It is not going to link up with the southern jet stream, which will be carrying that storm well south of New England, leaving us with a fair and chilly middle and end of the Presidents Day Weekend.

Looking into next week, it looks like another mild one, with some eventual unsettled weather, more likely in the form of rain than snow, sometime around midweek.

Boston Area Forecast…

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High 42-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers changing to snow showers during the evening then partly cloudy with isolated snow showers possible later at night. Minor snow accumulation may occur with a few snow showers. Low 25-30. Wind W 10-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20-25. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 47.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 36. High 43.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. AM rain showers. Low 34. High 44.

68 thoughts on “Winter? What Winter?”

  1. Many thanks for the update.

    QUESTION for TK and/or JMA:

    I am trying to understand the NAM. It was my understanding that a winter season
    storm system is generally guided by the winds at 500MB. Is this true?

    Assuming this is so, the winds at 500MB and the winds at 300MB, would appear
    to want to bring this system up here, yet it still drives more to the East.

    The only thing that would push more to the East are the winds at 200MB.

    In this particular case are the winds at 200MB pusing the features of the 300Mb
    and500Mb quickly more to the East, so even thoughin a snap shot, the 300 and 500MB winds appear favorable, those favorable winds keep getting pushed Eastward
    before the storm can react to it??? Does this make sense? Am I nuts?
    What am I missing?

    Just trying to understand what is guiding this system.

    Many thanks

    1. You pretty much answered your own question. Remember when you are looking at model data you’re looking at a snapshot forecast. There is constant change going on. And the separation of the 2 jet streams helps in this case. As soon as the southern stream systems starts to feel the west-east northern stream it is like running into a wall and there’s nowhere to go but east.

    1. Are you a sports writer? that was good, you made some good points. Was that you in the picture. Thank’s for sharing that with us.

    2. Oh dear. Nicely written but I know exactly what number 9 meant to Ted. He was like my second dad. And I know how he’d respond to your idea. Remember he rarely ever spoke half hartedly 😉

        1. I would be happy to see the current numbers stay retired, I consider Ted to be the greatest player who ever lived, or ever will. Got to go to TW night at Fenway back in the 90’s, and did get to see him tip his hat to the crowd. I’m also a friend of Yaz’s daughter, and love her to death. She’s a bigger Sox fan than just about any six guys you want to choose. But Cy Young won more games here than even Wakefield, and led us to the first ever World Series Championship. It’d be nice to see his name up there somewhere as well. Maybe make a Hall Of Fame as the Patriots have done, and select a handful more each year.

          1. Ted thought the world of Yaz. And he is without doubt the best player who ever lived or ever will not to mention a talented fisherman. I got teary when you said you’d seen Ted tip his hat. It was a great moment. My mom always gave him what for about not tipping his hat. She died in early 1991. I know in part he was tipping it for her. Ok I’ll stop now since I can no longer see the keyboard

            You write beautifully 🙂

  4. I do it just for fun, and that’s me standing in front of the T.I.V. The red thing is one of the whaling harpoons mounted to the side so they can anchor themselves to the ground during a tornado intercept.

    1. Very nice, I like Wakefield and enjoyed watching him, he is a class act, I gotta tell ya I find myself getting less and less excited about baseball, I kinda wish we could fast forward to Patriots football camp to start watching practices with my kids and nephew, I love it, it’s become tradition, have a great day 🙂

  7. My computer has been giving me fits lately….however, I think that problem is now solved, so I hope to be on a little more often again.

  10. 53F today at Logan….a bit higher than expected (I think most projections were for 50F or 51F). Can’t help but think that the middle of next week’s mildness (especially next Wednesday) is going to be realized as a 55F to 60F day. Now nearly 2 months past the solstice and only 31 days to the equinox. Lots of cloudy days lately, looking forward to a sunny day and to see how much strength the midday sun has acquired during the past week.

    1. Interestingly enough, I originally predicted 53″ of snow for Boston in our snowfall contest. Even if I reversed those digits (35″) I still would have been way off. Very sad Boston may not even have a foot of total snow for the entire winter…and now likely set a new record for least snowiest to boot. 🙁 🙁

      I may choose 53″ again for next winter’s total…we will see. 🙂

  11. I missed the storm nine yrs ago today, as we were down in Florida. I do recall seeing it covered by TWC and how they were kind of amazed that a non-intense storm (pressure-wise) was producing such a big snowfall. I don’t think there was great wind with this storm……….This must also be 9 yrs since the tragic night club fire as I remember seeing lots of New England news coverage down in Fla on both the tragedy and the snowstorm.

  12. I think I like the overall big picture of today’s 6z Gfs vs the 0z Gfs. The 6z’s ideas of a few westward traveling systems with trailing cold fronts pushing through our region seem more plausible to me than the 0z’s creation of low pressure areas around New England.

  13. Tornado Chris ~ Did you by any chance have the opportunity to meet Jenna Blum, author of The Stormchasers during your travels in 2006, ’07 or ’08? Curious as to whether you and the Chris noted in her research diaries are one in the same.

    1. No, wasn’t me. But I have ‘friended’ Jenna on FB and we have chatted a bit. I may well have rubbed shoulders with her out chasing, but at times it’s a bit of a circus out there. I’ve seen long dusty country roads where there isn’t a single place to park for miles due to all the chasers hugging every turn off to set up tripods. (If you see pics of chasers sporting pirate flags on their vehicles, that’s us.) (We get a little silly out there, must be something in the food..)

      1. I went to Jenna’s book reading and signing for The Stormchasers. It just so happened that the book was released on my birthday, which was pretty cool since Jenna is quite the Birthday Diva! Did you get a chance to read the book? Can’t wait for her next novel!!!

      2. I love the pirate flag !!!! I was thinking about the piece you wrote and shared with us last night. What impresses me most is that even though I don’t agree with you, the way you wrote was compelling enough to catch and keep my attention for the entire article. Nice. Do you have time to write when parked waiting for a storm or is there too much adrenaline at that point to focus?

        1. Vicki, after realizing Chris was a storm chaser, I perused the web and located some of his work. Outstanding, to say the least!!! Kudos to you Chris! But, I also found some really intense videos and writings that got me pretty choked up. Especially the ones of Joplin.

          1. I was maybe a minute behind the Joplin tornado, on I44. We stopped chasing and went to rescue mode as we suddenly found 24 overturned tractor trailers. The guy who drives my van is from Toronto and is doing stuff for the Canadian Weather Channel, right now he is on the ‘ice road’ north of the arctic circle. Plenty of snow up there….

            1. Chris would you be able to share some of the links. I would love to read them

              I can tell you that for the second time in two days you brought me to tears. Once for happy memories and this time for chilling reminders. It’s clear that storm chasers wear many hats and some have hero written on them. Wow. I still have goosebumps.

                2. I’ve been in your store many times and often as a child. Not for a few years. That and the Ben franklin in Belmont are wonderful reminders of places we could all save our allowance and walk to all on our own to buy a yoyo or candy bar or silly putty 🙂

  14. Thin, but rather intense line of snow showers in western NY state and northwest PA. Also, I find it interesting to watch the radars in southeast Texas and Louisiana this morning to watch tons of Gulf of Mexico moisture becoming involved in a storm system.

    1. There is or was a tornado warning for that area awhile ago – can you believe how fast that storm was moving?

      AT 832 AM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
      SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES WEST OF
      LOWRY…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.

      * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
      JENNINGS AND KLONDIKE BY 845 AM CST…
      MERMENTAU…EVANGELINE…MORSE AND RICEVILLE BY 850 AM CST…
      EGAN…CROWLEY AND LYONS POINT BY 855 AM CST…

      1. My son’s heading to New Orleans on a work related trip Wenesday Night and Thursday, so I’ll be keeping my eyes on the radar around that time frame. He’ll be traveling quite a bit to the Southern and Plain states in the coming months… so this Mom will be getting a few more gray hairs, for sure!!!

        1. shotime – ‘though we never had children, I still can understand how you feel. Hopefully there won’t be any severe storms while he is there. Even ‘though it will be a business trip, I am sure he will enjoy New Orleans. I have never been there but that is one out of many places that I have always wanted to go to.

        2. shotime they do that to you don’t they? Does he have time to check in? Is he traveling to chase storms or for business?

          1. I appreciate your well wishes, Rainshine! Chris would love to be storm chasing! But no, in fact he’s an engineer for a mobile television company based out of WI, but work primarily for ESPN. He travels every week, usually to two or three different venues, so it’s a good thing he doesn’t mind flying! Nice to be young!!! He’s heading to a conference in New Orleans, so his time will be limited for any sight seeing. But, he will certainly be able to enjoy a delicous Cajun meal!

        3. shotime – didn’t realize he might be chasing storms. In that case, if he is, don’t know whether to hope he gets to see some interesting weather or not! I just hope in either case he will be safe – I am sure he will be fine.

  15. Does anyone have a time frame on the arrival of any frozen precip tonight? TK does later mean sometime after 8-9 period?

    1. I think the threat exists anytime from 6PM on, but the initial stuff may be in the form of rain showers. I’d say by 8 or 9 anything that takes place would be graupel or snow. Again though, anything heavy would be very brief.

      Did you catch my Brady trivia answer?

      1. I did get your answer TK and answered your question. I’m not sure if I was right. You of course were. I guessed her middle name is Ann??

        And thanks for weather update. We are heading to Stockyard in Brighton for dinner at 5:00 so I think well be ok.

        1. You were correct, in fact.

          I wouldn’t cancel any plans. Worst-case scenario: a heavy snow squall comes through in 10 minutes time, whitens things up, and then any road snow melts due to the warm ground.

        2. Hey Vicki, the Stockyard is excellent. I may actually be there tonight for dinner as well as part of a bachelor party

          1. Very fun. We will b early since grandson going too. I was just reading not so good reviews on yelp so was happy to see your comment. I take yelp lightly 🙂

  16. From NWS at Taunton:

    THIS SHORTWAVE HAS POCKET OF -36C AIR AT 500 MB RESULTING IN MID
    LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO GREATER THAT 8C/KM WITH TOTAL
    TOTALS NEAR 60. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE
    ELEMENTS THIS EVENING SO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE
    POSSIBLE

      1. The loop is only of existing activity. It doesn’t tell you what may develop later. Think of it like summertime activity. 🙂

  17. Bring on the squalls!!!

    Saw this on The Onion, laughed out loud and wanted to share…

    BOSTON—While acknowledging Tom Brady’s decision to betroth his sister Julie to savage, lecherous Kevin Youkilis may be morally repugnant on a personal level, Boston sports analysts said Thursday the move should consolidate the superstar’s power over the region’s fans. “From a strictly political standpoint, the union of his family and the House of Youkilis spreads his authority into the realm of the Red Sox and allows him to check the power of the young aspirant Jacoby Ellsbury,” said ESPNBoston.com reporter Mike Reiss, who has tracked Brady’s rise since his Machiavellian overthrow of the once-great Drew Bledsoe. “Youkilis may not be a strategic genius, but he is powerful and unpredictable, and it’s better to let him exercise his animal urges on Julie than it is to leave his twisted mind to plot and plan.”The move is one of many the Patriots quarterback has made to reassert his authority following a disappointing Super Bowl battle; after making it known through his wife he was unhappy with his receivers, Wes Welker was drawn and quartered by Brady followers last week in the streets of Foxborough.

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