Sunday April 24 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)

29 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 24-28)

We see the evolution of a blocking pattern take place during the next 5 days, typical of spring. We sit on the cool side of a frontal boundary that will make the WHW forecast area cooler than yesterday, and lots of clouds continue to stream down from the NW in the upper level air flow over us, but there is enough dry air that we see these clouds break for sun at times, so not a totally overcast day, and we’re also not seeing the low stratus clouds that can sometimes accompany these onshore air flows – lower levels are not saturated enough, so if you can put up with the cool air, especially near the coast, it’s not really going to be that bad a day today. The same will hold true Monday as the frontal boundary still sits to the south and west but then attempts to make its way back across the region later in the day and evening as a warm front, so areas especially south and west of Boston may see the benefit of a southerly air flow developing with a bit of warming. Tuesday, low pressure tracking north of our area will drag a cold front into the region with the increased opportunity for showers, and a wave of low pressure forming along that front as it goes by us may enhance and prolong shower activity from Tuesday night into part of Wednesday as the entire system slows down in response to developing atmospheric blocking. However, as I felt yesterday, I feel today that the orientation of the blocking set-up allows us to dry out more as we get to later Wednesday and Thursday, although it will be on the breezy and cool side.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, periodic sunshine. Highs 47-54 NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and immediate South Coast, 55-62 elsewhere. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 55-62 southern NH and eastern MA as well as South Coast, 63-70 interior MA, northern RI, and northeastern CT. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S especially in areas west and south of Boston.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Partly sunny with a chance of a shower in the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

Continued idea of blocking pattern with our area on the drier side of it initially, then finally some rain threat around May 1 or 2 as a system from the west makes its way in, but should exit for a drier end to the period. Temperatures should be variable, averaging near to below normal. This remains a lower than average confidence forecast for this time period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 4-8)

Still a a tendency for blocking to take place with slow-moving systems. Remains to be seen how much wet weather we end up with, but we may stay on the drier side of the block once again as well as with cooler air being dominant.

29 thoughts on “Sunday April 24 2022 Forecast (8:32AM)”

    1. 47 here in JP. I expect it to be somewhere between 52 and 55 here while likely staying in the upper 40s at Logan. We shall see.

  5. Thanks TK
    As long as the sun is out I don’t mind below normal temperatures. It looks like we end April and start May on the cool side unlike the first three days of May 2001 where a heat wave happened.

    2. I love cool spring temps as much as those early warm days. Cool is very nice for my walks & early yard work – both of which I am partaking in today. 🙂

      1. Agree. Kids here for Easter 2 were out all afternoon. Adults spent a fair amount of time on the deck.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Arrived back to 48F in Marshfield.

    It was 86F in the Carolinas yesterday and 82F to north-central VA as late as 7:30pm last night.

    I’m frozen 🙂

    1. Welcome back and it is raw. Closer to 70s along Charleston coast. Did you push some of the warmer air that way?

  11. 3 major global models are in fair to good agreement that the blocking pattern will evolve during the next several days, but introduce itself to us with a relatively short period of wet weather (Tuesday and early Wednesday) before we end up on the cool/dry section of the set-up, with wet/stormy weather well to our east and also over the Midwest.

    Knowing the limitations of the guidance going forward in time, I’m still low confidence on how things go after the end of next week, but I wouldn’t expect the block to just vanish right away. Whether we stay dry-blocked or evolve into more wet-blocked remains to be seen.

    One thing that will be absent: Widespread warmth, with + temperature departures really most likely in the Gulf Coast States only.

    One trend I’ve been noting in longer range outlooks, and something I mentioned previously as a long-range possibility, is the tendency for California to get rid of its long run of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. The next 2 weeks look near to below normal north, near normal south, with near to above normal precipitation evolving. Could this be the start of the end of the long-term drought? Maybe. It’s far too soon to know, but long range trends are definitely more favorable for the state than they have been for a long time. This is likely tied, at least in part, to long term cyclic behavior of ocean temperatures in several basins, and their interaction / connection with the larger scale global weather patterns. We’ve still a lot to learn about these as many of them are fairly new to us in terms of our history of observing such things, and by default, it obviously takes a very long time to learn about the behavior of long-period cycles.

    1. I sure hope to see the end of the drought. Bay Area as you know is past it’s rainy season. If it has near normal rain, would that be enough to carry them through the months of nearly no rain?

      1. I think it’s going to take a long time still to end it. But there is hope, at least, from what I can tell.

        1. Mac was always amazed there was not more interest in desalination plants…..something that was in his wheelhouse but not at the top.

      1. 🙂 with family in the Bay Area for years and dear friends and family ranging from LA to San Diego, the CA weather has always fascinated me.

      2. I also like CA weather. It’s referenced in songs by my favorite solo artist, Thomas Dolby, but that’s not the only reason. Any weather fascinates me. I wouldn’t want to live in CA though. 🙂

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