Sunday May 22 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)

114 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

“Uh-oh”, or something more colorful I can’t type here, may be the first thought of someone rising around or just after dawn from Cape Ann MA to NH Seacoast, under a blanket of stratus with temperatures in the upper 50s. Even Boston and immediate North Shore sits in the upper 50s with a light east wind, although without the stratus. Are you thinking – “here we go again, no warm-up today either”? Today will be different. Most of the remainder of the region is already in a southwesterly air flow, and this will finally make its way across the eastern coastal areas of MA and NH and areas that were stuck in the 60s to around 70 yesterday will make a significant jump today. But as I cautioned and also forecast yesterday, today’s temperatures right at the shoreline will be cooler, probably under 90 in many locations for high temperatures, and certainly so along the South Coast and across Cape Cod where the southwest wind is a “sea breeze” by default. So not everybody will be baking in the early heat. Where that heat was yesterday, this will be day 2 and the final day of a short spell of it, where as other areas will have the warm to hot weather for today only. A cold front crossing the region tonight is going to put an end to any heat. Other than an isolated air mass thunderstorm that may pop up well ahead of this front in a couple areas today, it’ll be dry during the daylight hours. Tonight, after sunset, a remnant line of showers and maybe embedded thunderstorms will cross the region from west to east, but it will have lost a lot of the punch it will have to our west where the timing will favor stronger storms. We’ll have lost some of our dynamics (which were around but capped from activating yesterday) and will be losing daytime heating, so we will miss out on big storms but also be gypped of any beneficial rain, as just brief showers will pass by. We’re back to dry weather Monday behind the front, along with cooler air and lower humidity. The high pressure area supplying the cooler air is going to drift eastward but with its center staying to our north, so we’ll see our surface wind here turn northerly to northeasterly as we get to Tuesday and Wednesday, and we’ll also have to watch for a couple of waves of low pressure passing by on the front that goes by Sunday night, which will sit not far to the south for a few days. This could bring occasional cloudiness back into the region, and while it’s not shown by guidance at this point, even a shield of rainfall may try to work into at least southern portions of the region sometime Tuesday or early Wednesday. Right now though, odds favor it staying rain-free and it’s just something to keep an eye on. When we get to Thursday though, that frontal boundary will start lifting back to the north in response to an approaching trough from the west, so regardless of what happens prior, we may end up with lots of clouds and the threat of some rainfall by then.

TODAY: Low clouds parts of Cape Ann MA to NH Seacoast dissipating by midday, sunshine elsewhere. A few clouds may build and an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT, this afternoon. Highs 74-81 South Coast, 82-89 just inland from South Coast as well as along East Coast shoreline, 90-97 elsewhere with hottest over interior valleys. Humid – dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late-day, but still some weak sea breezes for a while along some immediate East Coast shores.

TONIGHT: Clouds move in evening – a round of showers with possible thunder west to east. Clearing overnight. Humid through midnight, drying overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH and gusty shifting to NW.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible South Coast / Cape Cod. Highs 72-79. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Highs 66-73, coolest east-facing shores. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain favoring the South Coast. Lows 49-56. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain near the South Coast early. Highs 66-73. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

A lot of scrutiny will be on this period of time with Memorial Day Weekend sitting right in the middle of this period (May 28-30), so the entire period is important for planning including people who may be traveling regionally a little early or extending the weekend an extra day. Obviously a forecast for days 6 to 10 is not going to carry with it a guarantee of accuracy or be made with very high confidence, given its time in the future, but here’s my best early guess… Friday May 27 we see showery weather as a trough and cold front move through. Saturday May 28 is dry with high pressure moving in. Sunday May 29 and Monday May 30 will see high pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure to our south battling for control – a common theme of spring. This puts a frontal boundary between the 2 and possibly in our vicinity. This increases the chance for cloudiness and at least the possibility of a period of wet weather, but given the overall pattern and tendency to be dry, I’d favor the drier side winning out with the temperature forecast being a toss-up and dependent on which side of a frontal boundary wet sit on or whether or not we’re bisected by it. The same will hold true for Tuesday May 31 looking that far out as well. Obviously, a great deal of fine-tuning will need to be done to this forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

Early June pattern looks like it wants to be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures. This is just a general idea and a lot more looking is needed.

114 thoughts on “Sunday May 22 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK. So Logan does not make 90 today? There’s a surprise. So far coolish here at 68. 62 at airport. 77 at Norwood already.

  3. Thanks TK.

    Still comfortable out the door and during my commute into work this morning. It will be interesting if “Logan” gets to 90.

    JPD and other neighborhoods should have no trouble whatsoever though. Stay cool JPD! 😉

      1. The cool wedge right on the coast.

        If there was ever a good example of things that I and other meteorologists mention about an upper air pattern looking like a lock for hot weather everywhere but being thwarted by what goes on at the surface, this is one of them.

        Now granted, it heats up more at the coast today than yesterday, but…..

        1. Excellent. Sometimes the surface analysis doesn’t even
          get this right. Heating up here. We’re now at 81

          Meanwhile at the airport it is 70 with a light SE wind.

          Better than the ENE wind yesterday. :)_

          1. With spaces between ob sites there is always some “guesswork” involved when analyzing a front’s position. You just do the best you can basically. 🙂

  12. IF Logan’s wind switches, it should zoom straight to 90F because its in the upper 80s per mesonet obs only a few to several miles west of Logan at 10am.

    I love being on the beach when this happens. In the extreme cases, it can feel like a big freezer door has just opened or a big hair dryer has suddenly turned on. Happens in literally seconds.

    1. I love that. Still my best experience with “sudden” temp change is the back-door cold front of April 17 2002. 93 to 56 in 10 minutes.

  16. Thank you, TK.

    69F here. I think 90F will not happen here, but could happen as close as, say, Arlington or Newton.

  18. Storms are already starting to fire across northern and eastern Maine. The front is still north of the Canadian border, so expect activity to become more widespread over the next few hours.

    1. What do you think about the potential to generate a few storms well ahead of the front down in SNE? There’s a little disturbance coming on up from the Mid Atlantic that looks like it nibbles away at the cap we had. In fact the 3km NAM thinks it “nibbles” enough to cause a line of storms to fire then dissipate well before the actual front gets here, which then would have weakening activity on it.

      HRRR has some activity too this afternoon but less organized than the 3km NAM.

  21. Logan has just dropped to 66! 86 here some 5 or 6 miles away.

    This is getting funnier and funnier and funnier. 🙂 🙂

  22. Its so hot inland that, without much gradient, the sea breeze circulation is strengthening from now for maybe a couple more hours.

    Perhaps the cold front coming closer this afternoon can be enough to overcome that sea breeze circulation.

      1. I don’t see much in the way of a freshening SW wind out there.
        Most reporting stations in the neighborhood of 8-10 mph, with a few rare locations reporting 14 mph.

        Not sure that will be enough to kill the sea breeze. Will have to watch.

        Logan still 66. Marshfield reporting 64 !!!! Same temp as
        Nantucket.

        I wonder if our temp here in JP gets capped like yesterday. I would welcome that. We shall see.

        1. We just dropped to 85 after reaching 87. Is it starting or just a temporary blip? This is way cool watching this. 🙂

        2. Well, in a way, I hope the heat makes it to Logan, even for a few hours.

          Thinking ahead, I dont think non-weather enthusiasts in the public questioning/doubting a forecasted heat wave in July/August would be good. Can see some folks saying, well, we saw 95 and 97F forecasted and it was 72F both days. Heat can be a health risk.

          I suppose inland areas are verifying better so, perhaps, this concern is just limited to the within a few miles of the coastline.

  25. Norwood is at 93
    Bedford 91
    Fitchburg 91

    88 here in JP
    I can feel the heat building in the house. I am not in an AC’d room right now.

    While Logan still sits at 64 !!

    A 24 degree difference over about 5 miles. Incredible

    2. Fascinating how quickly it warms up as you move away from the water.

      60 Winthrop
      64 Logan Airport
      65 Seaport
      65 Dorchester
      67 Carson Beach
      68 East Boston
      73 MIT
      74 Charlestown
      73 South End
      77 Northeastern University
      82 Roxbury
      85 Central Square Cambridge
      86 Franklin Park
      86 Mt. Auburn
      90 Brookline
      92 Boston College
      92 Hyde Park
      93 West Roxbury

      1. Sure is. 86 here in JP. the East wind has penetrated “just”
        enough to prevent 90 (for now). Quite pleasant out.
        We’ll see what happens in a couple hours or so. So far haven’t even need to fire up the ACs.

  26. I can see on the mesonet obs wind gusts picking up a bit, southwest of Boston. The gusts are on the order of 12-18 mph from the southwest.

    Maybe 2-3 pm for Logan ????

  27. The airport in Marshfield went from 64F to 81F.

    Its a battle btwn a south wind and southeast wind.

    I was just outside filling up our camper water tank and you could feel the alternating warm and cool breezes.

  30. 88F at Marshfield airport !

    +24F in a little over an hour.

    Glad I ran the A/C this morning when it was 64F.

    1. Just saw that. You’re higher that we are here. Still 86 here and that is with sun on my sensor, so it might be a little less than that. 🙂

  31. The wind is fairly steady here now. 91F in Marshfield.

    Unless a thunderstorm and its outflow boundary cuts it off at the pass, I’d think its fairly soon Logan sees a 25F+ temp rise.

    1. SW wind came rushing in here about 1:15 Temp went from
      86 to 96!!! Now that sensor is in the sun, so it could only
      be 93 or 94. Bad enough! Logan at 70 with a light East wind.

  33. AC has been cranking since Sat morning around 4am. It’s 68 degrees inside and 90 outside.

      1. Yes, but not at Logan, at least not quite yet. Perhaps any minute or within an hour or so.

  36. Thanks Tk . It’s warm in the city today . Hoping Thursday is rain free all day as my son is graduating high school

  38. 12z GFS Memorial Day Weekend outlook for SNE….

    -Dry all three days (after a frontal passage Friday night/overnight)
    -Highs in the 70’s Saturday
    -High’s in the upper 70’s to low 80’s Sunday
    -Highs in the upper 80’s to near 90 Memorial Day
    -Highs in the 90’s Tuesday after Memorial Day

    Of course all bets are off for those temps along the immediate shorelines depending on wind direction.

    Let’s hope the outlook stays this way! We have had some les than ideal Memorial Day weekends in recent years.

    1. 12 Euro agrees with the GFS for next weekend and projected temps each day are very similar. Cross your fingers!

        1. Funny, I saw that and automatically read 12Z.
          Sometimes I see what I want to see. 🙂

  39. Hull ob, evidently at the northern end of Hull is rising quickly last 15 minutes, now up to 80F.

    Logan’s chilly air source is being surrounded. 🙂

        1. Up to 81F here in Back Bay. The warm air offensive is beginning to overwhelm the pockets of cool air resistance. The cool air warriors have put up fierce resistance all weekend. Looks like they might have to retreat to the Harbor Islands and south to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard.

  42. 90F wll be hard to reach, but it’s up to 81.6F where I am (Back Bay). Feels warm.

    I did a 12 miler earlier today. Experienced several micro climates of sorts. Inland was much warmer. I need to get used to it. That’s why I challenge myself every year around this time of year.

  43. 88 @ Logan. That’s up 20 in 2 hours. We knew this was coming – eventually. Now do they make 90?

    1. I left home refreshing, but unlike yesterday, I returned to a sauna. 😉

      If they make 90 it would be the first of this year. What is the average date?

  46. Another cell had popper with a decent amount of lightning.
    Cell centered in Holliston/Sherborn.

      1. looks juicy and getting stronger.
        Heading this way. Other one missed south, this will probably just miss north. we shall see.

  48. I hope Taunton / Norton is using TBOS for those storms and not KOKX. That radar is making that thunderstorm look a lot worse than it actually is. TBOS is more representative. I do not believe that as a severe thunderstorm and I do not believe it needs a warning.

      1. Plenty of lightning, but that doesn’t make a storm “severe”. I am curious what prompted the warning, because the only hail signature was visible from the KOKX radar looking near the top of the storm which is not unusual at all. Maybe it was just to “play it safe” in case. I suppose having KBOX go down at this particular time sucks.

  49. I actually have a friend that lives in Dedham and he said it looks a lot worse on radar than what actually happened. 2 claps of thunder and some lightning. Heavy rain for about 10 minutes.

      1. There were trees down. Whether that was from winds that fit the criteria yet we don’t know, but it shows you how localized stuff can be.

        1. I don’t know where oakdale is. Or Dedham parts. It’s crazy how so localized storms are.

  51. With the trees down I’ll definitely agree that playing it safe with the limited information was the right move.

    I would not have wanted to make that decision today.

  52. Hearing thunder in Back Bay.

    Did not get to 90F here, by the way, unless my thermometer is off (max for the day was 87.8F).

  56. I am currently under a severe thunderstorm warning until 8:45pm. It’s a little breezy and saw some lightning in the distance.

  57. No storms have formed here in pembroke . Just got back from getting an ice cream .

  59. Initially Logan reported 90 as their high but it was actually 89.
    So they never reached 90 this weekend…

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