Thursday May 26 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

Today’s discussion will be a quick one to summarize the features in control of our weather from today through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Tomorrow I’ll expand a little bit more to detail the final 5 days of May… Warmer air is making its way in aloft and that’s the reason for the cloudiness we’ll have around today – but these clouds are not going to produce any rainfall in our area, so overall it will be a nice day. You’ll notice the humidity creeping up tonight and especially on Friday as we get into a stronger southerly air flow ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure and associated surface low which will drag a warm front through the region late Friday with a round of showers and a few possible thunderstorms, but the greater risk of showers and storms comes with a trough early Saturday morning and then again with a cold front Saturday afternoon – the timing of these we will have to fine-tune in the next 2 days. This means that the holiday weekend gets off to an unsettled start, but there is good news as it looks like high pressure builds in to salvage 2 of the 3 days, with fair weather for Sunday (removed shower threat) and Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring western areas late in the day. More humid – dewpoint cracking 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly thunderstorms, favoring early morning and sometime afternoon / evening. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-57. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

The heat potential is there for May 31 and/or June 1 but odds are starting to favor one or even both of those days seeing that thwarted by a back-door cold front and cooler maritime air, at least over eastern parts of the region. After that, the fair and warmer pattern may try to take hold but we will still have to watch for maritime influences. No sign of any significant rainfall, which we need, and this will allow our dry / early drought to expand.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly warmer than normal.

44 thoughts on “Thursday May 26 2022 Forecast (7:38AM)”

  1. Thanks TK !

    I am so happy with these forecasted temps for the entire Memorial Day weekend.

    Just not to freeze, during the daytime on Memorial Day weekend while camping, is going to be awesome.

      1. And, lets say when the 12z GFS runs and comes in around noon-1pm, it shows it being 60F Monday with an east wind, my guess is, within a few hours, the weather app projection would change drastically from 90F to close to 60F.

    1. Because your phone doesn’t “think”.
      That’s a met’s job. 😉
      Is 90 on the table for someone Monday? Maybe, but I don’t feel the threat materializes, hence it was not included in my thought out prognostication. 😀

      1. Perfect confirmation of the model discussion. Robot guidance and human knowledge. Actually seems to work well

  2. Note: somehow I had “70-77” written for Monday. That should say “75-82”. I fixed it.

  3. Thanks, TK.

    Why does my phone say nothing about the weather or anything else? Well, because it’s rather dumb. It’s a 22 year old flip phone with no `smart’ features whatsoever.

      1. My phone has a few days yet to get smart about Monday… and yes, I guessed it was probably from one run of one model.

        I’m definitely paying attention to TK!

    1. Based on the phone weather apps and social media discussion, I think you have the smarter of the two choices. 😉

      1. You got along fine before 2013, proving we can indeed live without it. 😉

        We (most of us) just choose to live with. 😀

  4. Thanks TK.

    2 out of 3 ain’t bad, typical Murphy’s Law during holiday weekends. Oh well.

    1. It’s actually typical of any 3-day period in New England. Chances are in any 3-day period one of them is going to have some unsettled weather. This is not exclusive to holiday weekend since the weather does not recognize holidays.

      I feel like I say this a lot during the year on this blog. 😉

      The funny thing is is that 90% of Saturday daytime will probably be rain free. So pretty much the entire weekend will end up being rain free outside of the pre-dawn and around dawn hours of Saturday and the shower and thunderstorm chance Saturday afternoon.

      So all in all, it’s about as good a Memorial Day weekend as you can possibly get coming up.

  5. It’s been a very dry stretch. We’ve had moisture at times but nothing substantial. My lawn is starting to go dormant already….before June….which is ludacris. I’ve been watering too and it was lush and green since early April. Yards look like early August conditions out there

    1. Our lawn is also. Most neighbors are as well We need to put the next treatment down. I was hoping for rain to water it in. We are also continuing to have a major tick problem.

  6. Thanks, TK!

    The SEC Baseball Tournament, played in Hoover, Alabama (just south of Birmingham), is severely backed up because of rain delays. They are six games behind. Yesterday’s postponed games were supposed to be made up this morning. They haven’t even started those yet!

  7. Nice batch of cold air going to be in east central Canada next week with some showers of the frozen (snowflake) variety around Hudson Bay. Not really unusual though to see some flakes up there even in late spring.

      1. Well, maybe, but not air that cold. Have to keep in mind anything that reaches us from that source region now will be modified by just about as high a sun angle as we’ll see (over the next several weeks).

        But are we in line for shots of cool air? We most certainly are. This is not going to be a blazer of a summer.

  8. A quick look at the CFS long range which runs to June 27 doesn’t show me overwhelming heat but more of an up and down pattern. We get our warm weather and brief heat when high pressure is concentrated offshore, but there are numerous instances where high pressure is in eastern Canada or over the Great Lakes and our wind is northerly or easterly with cooler interludes. Granted, one must take the surface maps on that model with lots of salt grains, but when you see something displayed often and it a consistent fashion (I’ll monitor this model more than I have been) it tends to have at least some credibility. One thing that looks like it wants to continue: dryness. Again, you take these with salt grains, but the precipitation anomaly maps were all near to mostly below normal through 6 weeks on the weekly series, and on the monthly series I looked out through autumn (November) and every month was drier than average for the WHW forecast area with the exception of October, which was a bit wetter. I doubt this will verify nearly perfectly but you see the overall trend shown there – and it’s somewhat believable as far as being able to believe long range / climate guidance goes. Certainly something to keep track of in the weeks and months ahead of us.

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