Friday AM Update

80 Comments

7:31AM

The storm is in 2 pieces. The first one carried some moderate to heavy snow/mix/rain across areas south of Boston for a short time, with only spotty very light snow from the Mass Pike northward. This area will be moving out through mid morning with only a little spotty light snow/sleet/rain around for the remainder of the morning as the temperature hangs in the 30s with a very light N wind.

The next part of the storm will come through tonight, in the form of a strong cold front with showers of rain and possible thunder. The weekend continues to look dry but windy, especially Saturday, when local wind damage may occur as winds gusts as high as 50 MPH, especially over open areas and higher elevations.

Rest of the forecast for eastern MA, RI, southern NH from this afternoon on…

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Cloudy with spotty light rain and drizzle. Patchy fog forming. High 40-45 late day but may hang in the upper 30s in the valleys. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms crossing the region from west to east. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low 32-37. Wind variable eventually shifting to W and increasing to 15-30 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind W 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH. Wind damage is possible.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 21. High 38.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 43.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 29. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain. Low 30. High 44.

80 thoughts on “Friday AM Update”

  2. Well, quite the pleasant surprise here in northern CT this morning! We have 3″ of heavy wet snow here in Coventry and it is caked on everything…very pretty scene. Up to 4-5″ fell N & W of Hartford. Numerous accidents and school delays/closings this morning. I think this storm caught some people off guard, particularly down on the shore where it hit a record high of 60 yesterday and wasn’t predicted to accumulate.

    1. Massachusetts, not including the Cape, is the big snow void this winter. As mild as its been, coastal and southern CT and RI, as well as Cape Cod are going to have received close to their seasonal norms.

  3. Hey Mark… I mentioned that in the last blog about that record high of 60 for Bridgeport and now the 2 inches of snow that is on the ground there. I just saw a report New Haven coming in at 3.8 inches. What surprised me was that the snow made it down to the shoreline. A total surprise.

  4. Here we have rain with some wet snow flakes mixing in, no surprises here unfortunately, no accumulation here sw of Boston just a little coating on grassy surfaces 🙁

  5. Can see the effects of the precip. South coast temps and dew points are nearly identical, somewhere in the low 30s, while north of that, the temps are higher (mid to upper 30s) and the dewpts are lower (mid 20s).

  10. The snow area that was across CT as it pushed east fizzled. Once we get through this attention turns to a burst of rain with may some embedded thunder. No severe storms and then the strong gusty winds. With those winds tomorrow it will feel colder tomorrow.

    1. JJ, I watched that area of heavy precip on radar early this morning as it moved closer to SE MA thinking that we would get some heavy snow soon, but it never came. The minute it crossed the CT/RI border it just dried up as if something was tearing it apart. This isn’t the first time this winter I have seen that happen. Most of our “events,” which yes have been far and few between, have had the precip just fall apart in this same area, from say a just north of Providence to Boston line. Is there any explanation for it that u can think of?

      1. I would be open to any explanation at this point. I’m not much of a conspiracy theorist, but I think this odd winter is starting to make me crazy! LOL

        1. My boss is a huge chemtrail conspiracy theorist. He thinks the gov’t is controlling the weather, or at least trying to prove they can….as odd as this winter has been, I still think he’s nuts

  11. Who knows Coastal, the 00Z EURO shifted north as we thought we would happen bringing in warmer air just like the GFS is showing!!

  12. This could change but for mid week next week I am thinking mostly rain with maybe some mixed wintry precipitation at the onset for parts of the interior.

  13. .17, .24, .16, .31. These numbers represent the total monthly precip at the 4 major southern New England climo stations for Feb.

    The region really missed out on a precip opportunity this morning. I hope this next impulse generates some needed precip late today.

  14. Hey Tom… I think there will be a burst of rain later today this evening. I would not be surprised if a rumble of thunder happens. Anyone with family and friends southeast VA and parts of eastern NC and SC a moderate risk for severe weather. I would not be surprised to hear of tornado reports coming out of those areas today.

  15. Nice thumping of snow for Central Maine on the latest NAM.

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120224%2F12%2Fnam_namer_015_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=015&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=02%2F24%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

  18. Still looks like both the Euro and GFS give us a quick thumping of snow on the front end of the storm next Wednesday before a changeover to rain. The 3/4 storm threat is gone on both models. Then the milder pattern sets in again for at least the first two full weeks of March. Could next Wednesday be Boston’s last chance to avoid breaking the snowfall record?

  19. Regarding Tom’s earlier comment about seasonal snow to date in CT, RI, and Cape Cod, the 2″ in Bridgeport puts them at 7″ below the normal seasonal snowfall to date. At my house (about 20 mi east of Hartford), we have received 23″ this season with today’s storm (our seasonal norm is about 42″). Of course, 10″ of that 23″ fell in October so it feels like a lot less.

  20. currently
    back yard weather station saying that its 36 degrees with an east wind of 5mph with light snow shower
    marshland weather station saying light snow. with a temp of 32. with a wind of 8 mph.
    and from my window i think i can see some light coatings on the other side of the marsh.

  22. 0Z Euro for next weeks event:

    http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.32270&lon=-71.08470&zoom=4&type=terrain&units=english&rad=0&sat=0&stormreports=0&svr=0&pix=0&cams=0&tor=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&ski=0&tfk=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=156&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&fire=0&hur=0&ib=0&mits=0&dir=0

    At this point, it will have flipped over to Rain in Boston after a few inches of snow.

    Still time, but I don’t like the trend, as per usual. When all is said and done, this
    system will likely be a rainorama. 🙂

  25. I would not be surprised if more tornado watches don’t pop particularly in southeastern parts of VA, eastern parts of North and South Carolina. Those areas I just mentioned have a 10% chance of seeing a tornado. The ingredients are there for severe weather. You got the front coming through providing the lift and the dew points are up there creating an unstable environment which thunderstorms feed off of.

  26. Quick comments: We’re witnessing a very subtle pattern shift, not enough to change the winter dynamics around here (it’s also too late to really change the dynamics structurally). But, I think over the coming few weeks we’re going to be see more precipitation (some in the form of snow or a mix), fewer abnormally warm days, and in fact more normal and below normal days than we’ve been seeing, and lots of snow up north in the mountains. Looking at the model projections the coming 10-15 days the storm track appears more favorable for winter storms 100-200 miles north of us.

        1. They have been open, believe it or not. OR at least I have seen the lights on at night on many many occasions and naturally “assumed” they were open. 🙂

  27. With the overall dynamics of today’s system, isn’t the lake of precipitation rather
    remarkable? It seems it should be raining buckets here, yet virtually nothing is going on???? IMHO, this is weird.

    2. I hear you Old Salty, see my comment above about the heavy precip this morning just vanishing before our eyes. If there was a stronger word than weird, I would use it!

  28. From NWS, Upton NY re: Next Week’s Event. Looks like there is still some “hope”?

    MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM INTO THE
    REGION FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK…ALTHOUGH THERE ARE TIMING AND
    STRENGTH DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE
    POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    AS THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS COULD BE
    COLD ENOUGH AT NIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
    NORTHERN ZONES WHILE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
    ZONES. DURING THE DAY…PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN…THOUGH THIS
    COULD CHANGE AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
    SYSTEM.

    1. Unless the 12z Euro still has something up its sleeve, I don’ t think there is a ton of hope for Wednesday. The GFS has the warmer air getting in here too soon, before the bulk of the precip starts. And the past few runs of the Euro seem to be trending closer to the GFS solution. On a slightly more promising note (emphasis on slight), the GFS has the second storm back on 3/3-3/4, but it is too far offshore to affect us.

  29. south caralina i think has the best chance of seeing a tornado. Some of those storms look fired up by thomston georgia. and then one around batesburg south caralina there is a large line of thunderstorms .
    currently at my house my weather station up in the yard is saying just cloudy with a temp of 36 one down in the marsh is saying freezing drizzle. temp around 31

  30. If I heard correctly on the noontime news, Gov. Patrick believes the MBTA could avoid fare hikes and service cuts (for awhile anyway) due to the lack of snowfall. Money that has not been used for snow removal this winter could be used instead to bail out the T and keep the system afloat at least temporarily.

    I still want Boston to get one good 4-6-inch snowfall before winter ends though. I don’t want to see that 1936-37 record (9.0″) broken. 😉

  31. Average high temps r up to 42 degrees, in 4 weeks the average high will be 52 degrees, since winter was a dissappointment let’s get on with a decent spring 🙂

  32. I don’t like what I see on the radar for beneficial precip chances later today…

    Convection in the mid-Atlantic with the cold front meeting the warm sector and a solid area of precip and a bit of convection from central PA northward into western NY State.

    I hope Massachusetts is not right in the middle with a late afternoon/evening passing shower that amounts to no more than .10 total precip. Convection passes to our south and the stratiform precip passes to our north.

    1. Wundermap just doesn’t want to link properly. 12Z EURO
      In anycase, for next week, still has a few inches of snow at the outset. System tries to move way North and West of us, but Finally still redevelops coastal South of us, too little, too late as it remains rain. 12Z GFS has a similar track only doesn’t develop a coastal until Canadian maritimes. So there is the difference. If, when and where a coastal develops. 🙂

  36. Well, the 12z Euro is still trying to do something with some coastal redevelopment off of NJ early Thursday as the primary low in the Great Lakes dies out. But it happens too late after too much warm air gets involved. Still gives us a bit of snow, northern NE stands the chance of doing a lot better.

    1. Almost looks like today’s scenerio, a bit of front end snow, break, then rain with 6+ inches for the mountains.

          1. Very close to today’s scenario indeed. If only we could get the primary low to take a more southeasterly track, we could get that coastal redevelopment a bit sooner, lock some colder air in, and be in business.

    1. Thanks for that update. My son is currently working in Charlottesville, VA which is included in that watch. I think he’s flying back home (weather permitting) to Chicago later tonight where they had a few inches of snow today!

  39. 46 storm reports with the outbreak of severe weather down south so far. No tornado reports yet but I have a feeling that maybe changing as we go through the rest of the day.

  40. NAM still has be concerned with tonight as it has the 850mb temps and 540 line crashing towards the coast line with precip still around.

        1. I know. 12Z GFS had even more backside precip.

          Perhaps you’re onto some surprises for tonight.

          This is TK’s cue to post about dry air moving in, NO
          backside precip at all etc. etc. 🙂

          1. There was already one surprise with that burst of snow that happened in CT earlier today with some places coming
            in at 4 5 inches in 4 hours. Maybe there will be one more surprise before the day is out.

  41. Maybe in parts of the interior some mixed wintry precipitation with this next round. The bigger story will be the strong gusty winds overnight and into tomorrow.

  42. That precip needs to fill in quick if it’s going to make it here in any kind of capacity. Looks like the bulk of it will go way to our north. Areas in central VT are still forecast to get 6-10″ but it should have been snowing up there by now. Looks like the precip may even go north of them too. Still time for that to fill in though.

    1. Yay. Now let’s hope my anemometer doesn’t blow down. I heard 4:00 am to 7:00 pm. I’ll have an early morning tomorrow 🙂

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