Saturday Update

239 Comments

10:47AM

Just a forecast update for now…

Adding more clouds and a few snow showers to the forecast for today. Already have seen a few very light snow showers that have migrated all the way from the Great Lakes across NY and southern New England.

Also, not making any changes to the Thursday-Friday forecast yet, but eyeing potential stormy weather for that time period… More later.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Isolated light snow showers. High 40-45. Wind W 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-55 MPH. Potential wind damage and power outages.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind NW 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 36-41. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH through midday, diminishing slowly in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 19. High 41.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM light mix/rain. Low 29. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

239 thoughts on “Saturday Update”

  3. 12z GFS has a 1020 high over us for next Wednesday, which would promote mainly rain. The 00z EURO had a ~1030 high over us at that time, which would most likely produce a different outcome.

    1. Next week’s storm threat as far as precip type appears to be mainly rain unfortunately for most of southern and central new england. Snow would be confined well north up into ski country. Pattern is just not favorable.

      1. If everything comes together at the right time, it can snow even in the worst of patterns, just like the October storm.
        Also the fact that it’s shown to be a on a Thursday intrigues me as that has usually been the mild part of the week.

        1. To me its like making a cake and if you are missing a key ingredient the cake won’t come out right.
          I am going using that line a lot when talking about thunderstorms and how strong they could get.

        2. Scott. Agreed, however, with a +NAO and an unfavorable PNA combined with increased sun angle and a persistent snowless winter, odds are not on our side at all for a southern new england snow storm. There are no models at this time that even show a snowy scenerio for SNE. I’d love to see a snowstorm here; however, I’m just being realistic at this time. Anything can happen.

    1. We had some thunder around 1am this morning. Wind has now picked up here. We wait to see what the next storm brings. I am ready to move on into much warmer weather, open the pool and having some cook outs.

      1. I hope tracking thunderstorms this summer will be more interesting than this winter which really there was nothing
        to track other than the Pre Halloween Noreaster. I don’t want to see a repeat of what happened last June 1st but as I
        said back on January 1 as one of my bold predictions for 2012 we would have 2-3 big thunderstorm days.

  5. Hehehe. Highest gust here has been 16 and guess what we dont have…………power.

    Wooooo hoooo. Sorry. Can’t help myself. Was standing back to my daughter when it went out and her comment was…….stop smiling.

    1. No power from a 16 mph wind gust, wow Vicki that’s not good even though you wanted to loose it. To loose it that easy wow.

    2. Vickie, I too secretly enjoy losing power during storms. In the right conditions of course with no threat to life or property, etc. Having a fireplace helps a lot. When I was a kid on ski trips we lost power during storms quite frequently. It was so much fun just having the simple conversation among friends and family without the distractions of tv and computers.

      1. AceMaster. That’s exactly where I learned to love it. We skied north Conway but my uncle had a ski camp on Lovell pond in fryeburg sp? ME and lost power a lot. We’d sit by a roaring fire and talk and enjoy the absolute quiet. I think you and I are in a minority :)). Nice memories

        Sadly the power came back but it went off and on four more times so there is still hope

  6. I saw a report on the weather channel of a 57 mph gust is Boston. Seemed to be a big number compared to other gusts in the area. Does anyone live in or near Boston to confirm this?

  7. About 12:50PM a wind gust around 50 MPH snapped a large pine tree across the street. The top came down in 2 parts, half on the roof of a house (took down a chimney) and the other half across the front lawn (took down wires). We have power here. It was the wires to the house that got taken down.

    2. TK were you surprised they downgraded the high wind warning for a lot of eastern MA? From the winds gusts you are having
      it seems were close to warning criteria.

  8. 12z EURO staying consistent with the first piece of energy for next week, second piece is a tad further south.

  9. Dark cloud WSW of me (snow shower in progress on the southwest side of town, report from a friend).

  11. The wind is now in the process of taking siding off another house near me and the roof shingles off a wooden shed.

    1. Wow. No winds like that here TK. Yes it is windy but not like I thought it would be. Tk would it be safe to go to bermuda in early July. I am thinking about going on a cruise there 7-6. Thinking this time would be safer instead of end of August/ September. Thank’s and stay safe over there.

      2. Climatology certainly says early July is safer than late August/September. But depending on what phase of ENSO and other things we are in, with warmer water in parts of the Atlantic Basin to start, we could kick the season off a little early.

        1. Thank’s TK. So if this were you planning a summer vacation would you book it at that time and take the chance instead of booking later and having a higher chance of running into a huricane. Thank’s. I am looking at prices now trying to get the best deal.

          1. Wait!! Cruise lines are hurting big time and will crazy deals. I work in the travel business so trust me and wait if you are flexible.

            1. Thank’s. I am looking at Boston to bermuda on 7/6. I was thinking like end of May for booking. Right now for three of us ocean view around 3,500 7nights. Second time on this cruise.

            2. Hadi any advice you can give would be great. I don’t want to book like very last minute, I am thinking by end of may for july cruise. Would you agree. Thank’s.

  12. Within the past 10 mins in Easton had the highest winds I’ve seen all day. Dark clouds came through, heavy snow shower for literally 2 mins, then the sun came out.

  15. Wind is gusting still in Westborough. Currently, there is an ongoing burst of snow that started quite suddenly.

  16. Not sure how high gusts have been in Sudbury – at times, especially earlier, probably around 40 mph. Seems like there are fewer gusts than earlier, ‘though it’s still blowing a lot. Sun in and out and we just had a brief snow flurry move through. Lights did flicker and dim around 11:00 or so – they are ok at this point.

  17. We had a few snow flakes in West Concord, but as Bud Light is to beer this was to a Snow Flurry. Had to bring the stacks of trash barrels in from the sidewalk, they kept blowing down the street…..

    1. We have been having a snow flurry most of the day on and off. The wind for sure now is picking up. I wonder if the high winds from the north shore are now making It down this way on the south shore.

  18. Tree removal ongoing outside and let me tell you the hardest working member of this crew is a girl that weighs no more than 130 pounds…

    The wind has made maneuvering the crane and tree parts around the wires very interesting but they are pulling it off. Road is closed as they now have an entire pine tree in large pieces to cut up and remove. And it blocks the road since they had nowhere else to put it.

    1. Here in Pembroke there are many females on the trash pickup. Back in the fall we tossed out two couches. Two females on the truck tossed them in like nothing, they would not let me help them.

  19. All of a sudden the strong winds are here. Dark skys and heavy snow flurry coming through. I am guessing we just had 50mph wind gusts.

  20. Personally winds were not even that strong, not much of a sustained, sure a bit gusty here I recorded a 32 mph wind gust but much less than anticipated, have a great day everyone 🙂

    1. During Irene my weather station recorded a 64 mph outside my window, much lower than that as that’s the highest I’ve seen here

    2. I agree to a point. I think location again is key. For here in Pembroke the wind most of the day has not been an issue, It blew hard here in the last hour than went calm again and sun is back out. So down here anyway from what I am seeing is another dud. I believe the north shore is getting more of the wind from what I am hearing. Very weird day here. It is bright sun for a time than gets real dark. It has been doing that cycle all day, snow flurry’s in the air most of the day. We just had a stronger one move through now gone.

  21. We’ve had periods of moderate snowshowers, not enough to coat ground but enough to make ground damp 🙂

  23. Sky very pretty – fast-moving pinkish clouds close to the sun against the western horizon and multi-colored dark and lighter clouds racing from northwest to southeast. If it were summer, I am pretty sure we would be having at least some thundershowers.

    NOAA Worcester weather on 162.550 talking about snow nxt. wk. How potential is that?

  25. Latest thinking from Taunton regarding next week…
    THE FIRST ROUND APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENT ON WEDNESDAY.
    THE LATEST GGEM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF/S DEPICTION OF A
    COLDER/SNOWIER SOLUTION. THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF
    AN OUTLIER NOW WITH A WARMER AND WETTER SOLUTION. STILL A LOT OF
    TIME TO IRON THINGS OUT…BUT AT THIS POINT LEANING THE FORECAST
    MORE TOWARDS THE COLDER GGEM/ECMWF. WHILE WE CERTAINLY CAN/T RULE
    OUT THE GFS/S WARMER SOLUTION…THIS POTENTIAL EVENT WILL FEATURE A
    HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WHICH IS SOMETHING WE REALLY HAVE NOT SEEN
    MUCH OF THIS WINTER. THAT WOULD FAVOR THE COLDER/SNOWIER MODEL
    SOLUTIONS. AGAIN THOUGH ITS STILL 4 DAYS OUT IN THE FUTURE…SO
    THERE IS EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE MODELS SHIFT THE MAIN AXIS
    OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTHWEST. BASICALLY…WE NEED TO KEEP ALL
    OPTIONS OPEN AT THIS POINT BUT HAVE ENOUGH TO RUN WITH LOW END
    LIKELY POPS FOR WEDNESDAY.

    A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY.
    THIS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE A SECONDARY COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
    DEVELOPS…SO WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS.

  28. 18z GFS is a bit colder on the first batch, and more robust on the second piece. I’m liking the trend, yet we are so far away.

  29. In Belmont for dinner. Wind much stronger here. Spectacular dark clouds with bright moon and Venus ? Jupiter?

        1. There’s a fourth. Let’s see if I can remember. Venus. Jupiter Uranus. Ugh. Mercury or mars. Can’t remember. And the moon. 🙂

  33. It still days away so many things could change but there are Some indications this mid week storm system maybe a bit colder than earlier thought. Of course the track is key as always.

      1. I have learned not too look too closely so I don’t get my hopes up. I do have a sense we will get something still.

  34. The 18z pops a low for Thursday that is for sure cold enough for snow. Maybe this is when things come together.

  35. 00z GFS pretty much in line with the EURO for next week.
    I don’t think it’s going to be a major event, but it is at least some snow that may be on the way.

    1. I agree Scott, not major as of now, but probably a longer duration event than we have seen. Looks like the 00z GFS wants to keep precip around from the last half of wed thru early fri

  36. on my way down to dartmouth we ran into some really heivy snow squalls which reduced visabilities down to a quater mile to a percussion show. My group made an upsett.:) first place out of 8 groups not to mention its our first time marching in these things.
    Also with the national weather service forcast it gets me sort of excited since it give us snow on wednesday and thursday but it doesn’t look good with the really warm temps before and after the storm. then a rain event next weekend. 🙁

    1. matt, im guessing you are in marching band? Is it for ur high school? I played the tenor sax in my high school concert band and jazz ensembles. Best time of my life. My advice to you would be to enjoy it now as much as u can. It’s a wonderful experience.

      1. Its for school. i play piccolo and flute for marching band season in the fall but can play some sax. then in percussion in the winter ( i can play the auxilary ) and sadly its my last year but i want to continue it in college. vicki when i looked at the models and also yeserday when i looked at the forcasts from national weather service. I was saying snow. Its finally in the forcast and yes finally a possibility of a snow day. Weatherservice has a 70 percent chance of snow for wednesday and wednesday night and then chance of snow thursday and friday.

    2. matt – great job!! And as much as I would love to see snow this week, I would love it even more if you get at least one snow day!!!!

  37. The fact that we have a relatively warm ground and it will be March 1st, the snow will need to come down hard for any real accumulation, especially if most of the QPF were to fall during the day time hours.
    Looking at the 500mb absolute vort on the GFS, the first batch would be snow that doesn’t really stick as there won’t be a whole lot of energy, which means the snow will be light. The second has a lot more energy, so that would be where we get our best snows, it also looks to be colder by then as well.

    Still early, but those are the facts that we have to face.

  39. Both GFS runs have strung out lows For wed/Thursday but they both pop a nice low for Thursday night into Friday. It all looks cold enough for snow at this point. My biggest concern is if they keep getting pushed south which is more of a concern at this point. Thermal profiles are cold enough for snow except for SE mass. Also note the nice high up in eastern Canada which has been lacking this winter feeding in cold air. It could one of these events that it snows on and off for 2 days and we get 6 inches unless that 2 nd storm really gets going.

  40. Two things to keep in my mind its not going to be snowing constitently and during the daylight hours it would have to come down very hard to stick on the roads. At night its a different story when that sun goes down. This is still days away and many things could change but it looks like some precipitation will happen mid week.

  41. Joe Joyce pointing to Thurs for a possible “few inches of accumulation.” Probably not anything major.

    1. I was just in Braintrre along the fore river. I was on a ladder replacing a exterior light, the eind cut through me but when it stopped the sun felt very warm.

  45. Artic high to the north with NE winds in southern new england? High water temps with atic air could ring out some good QPF. I have not looked at models just what i heard from Joyces Blog.

  46. I’m loving the model agreement for next week, again not a major event in the works, but something that we haven’t seen much this winter.
    Although I did notice the GFS spitting out quite a bit of QPF.

  49. That high to the north is going to be key to what happens this week, the GFS seems to be having issues with that.

  50. If this is a one time early March event, I’m enthusiastically encouraged for it. Hope for a good snow event…..

    What I don’t want is for all of March to turn cold, snowy and raw. Thats just going to make me miserable.

    In spite of all of winter’s warmth, I’m ready for a really warm day > say 70F.

    2. let march be cold and snowy then april with 60s and 70s and then 80s I want a quick warm up in april. 🙂

      1. I’d take that as well, especially if the warm weather could fall on April school vacation so that I could go camping locally.

      2. I hope March is not cold and snowy. I hope this storm will be it and than get into some warmer weather like the cpc called for in March. I have a feeling this storm will pan out. Whatever we get for snow it will be gone really soon by the sun or washed away on Saturday from the next storm in the form of all rain.

  51. The nam is jacked up as usual and GFS looks more reasonable. Plenty to go before we know what is going to happen.

  52. I so want to believe in this thing, even this far out, because it has those things about it: Consistent good track on major models, end of month, start of new month, late winter in a season where we’ve had nothing since October (the bookend syndrome).

    But it’s really hard for me to buy it given the persistence of the weather pattern. Far from jumping on board at this point.

  53. It has the makings of a moderate storm if things continue as advertised. We shall see and yea TK I have a hard time jumping on board with the way winter has gone.

  55. One thing that looks certain it does not like a major snow producer. I don’t see this getting up to level 3 (10-20 inches) but some places could see a level 2 snow event (5-10i inches) although I think closer to the lower end of it.

  56. As long as the storm can get us past the record 9.0″ set in 1936-37 by a few inches, I will be satisfied…4-8″ would be nice. The only bummer is that next weekend’s rainstorm will only wash it away before the snow has a chance to even get settled. I believe most areas of the CONUS have had at least a couple days to “enjoy” their snow, including the mountains of Hawaii of all places.

    We take what we can get, and again…may the 1936-37 record stand! 🙂

    1. The scary thing though is that the high “could” supress the systems too far south and we get nothing and Pete would still be proved right about winter over, etc. 😉

      I certainly hope we finally get the snow, but I wouldn’t bet against the above scenario given this winter up until now.

  61. Any chance next weekend’s rainstorm could change track or is that already a done deal even at this very early stage?

  62. I never give up hope for a change when something is that far out but the models seem to be in agreement with a warm storm system.
    Reading the NWS discussion out of Upton NY it may start out as a period of snow or mixed precipitation before going over to rain

  63. 1 a non event less than 1 inch
    2 minor event 1-4 inches
    3 moderate snowfall 4-8 inches
    4 a heivy snow fall 8-16
    5 extreme 16+
    with that said i do not think anything over a 3 but we need everything to line up in order for the snow event to occur.

  64. 12z EURO mostly south with the first wave, and the second wave isn’t all that impressive…
    Still plenty of runs to go.

  65. The one thing now is the start of a trend here. I think we see something mid week just nothing impressive.

  66. today sunny highs in the upper 30s and breezy
    tonight through monday night partly to mostly cloudy highs in the low 50s lows in the 20s
    tuesday mostly sunny highs in the mid 40s
    tuesday night becoming cloudy lows in the mid 20s
    wednesday through thursday possible nor-easter snow and sleet likly pockets of rain possible we need to watch for lower level temps being cold enough wednesday and wednesday night looks more promising to me.
    friday partly sunny winter is short lived highs in the mid 40s lows in the mid 20s
    firday night temps rising chance of rain lows in the mid 20s
    saturday chance of morning rain highs in the mid 40s
    For this winter i do not recall more than 1 or 2 days having highs in the 20s.

  67. Wow JJ just ruling it out already? I actually think the GFS has been much better as of late. But as I pointed out earlier my biggest worry is a south trend.

  68. Hey Hadi… I am just thinking the way this winter has gone it would not surprise me if this thing turns out to not be that impressive. Yesterday I was thinking mostly rain with mixed wintry precipitation for parts of the interior. Today I am thinking level one snow 1-4 inches. I hope I am wrong.

  69. I know I seemed to always be in the no snow camp, it’s really not I just think this is a nonevent, have a great day everyone 🙂

    2. I am just curious as to why you think that so early Charlie. We will have cold air in place. I don’t want any more snow, like you I am starting to think about the pool season. I have a huge pool ready for some fun. But I feel this one may pan out. I have always thought this winter would go out with a storm.

    2. I think we get this one hadi. And If the cpc holds true with a warm march, this may or may not be our last chance for snow. My thought’s seem to be once we start warming things up in March for awhile It will become even more harder for snow. I know we have a threat till April but the longer we go the harder it will be. Again If I were a betting man I would bet the storm comes.

  74. The 12z Euro is beginning a trend that I think means we may not see much out of this thing at midweek.

  80. I wonder if this will end up like the storm system in January on the weekend of the 21st where the cold dry air pushed that system further south where NYC ended up with 4.3 inches and Boston came in around 2 inches.

  82. So on Thursday, it will be sunny and 40F in both Montreal and Burlington, VT under March sunshine…it will be 34F under some high clouds that the sun can weakly shine thru in Boston and somewhere south of NYC it will be snowing and in the upper 20s. That would be quite fitting for this winter.

      1. I believe John that the euro and gfs will trend that way as we get closer, euro will handle this better in the end I think.

  86. Joe Joyce at 6 PM tonight: “Chance” of snow on Weds and Thurs. “Maybe” a couple of inches. “Depends” on track.

  88. Since the Saturday rainstorm is already “set in stone”, do we have to be concerned about urban and stream/river flooding?

    In a sense, I wish that the two storms could be reversed…rain for midweek and snow for Saturday since the latter has much more qpf. 😉

      1. John the Sudbury river in Ashland is lower than normal but there are 2-3 gates that may be holding it back. In wayland it’s higher than I remember for this time of year. Along 135 in hopkinton and 16 through Milford and mendon and Uxbridge I noticed a lot of the swampy areas have a fair amount of water. I’m not sure if that’s typical for this time of year. We only got 0.37 inch total here for all last week/weekend

  89. Going to have to wait and see what future model runs say. As I said earlier I am thinking a level 1 snow event 1-4 inches maybe some areas go fast 4 inches and make it to level 2. This will not be a MAJOR storm system. The track is key and as I always say in real estate its location location location in weather its track track track.

  90. Drove to Danbury, Connecticut for a wedding this weekend. About 3 inches of snow on the ground there. In fact, from Hartford to Danbury I saw snow and some nice ice formation on the ridges of the Connecticut hills. Heard from Bretton Woods where they got more snow Saturday into Sunday morning, maybe 2 inches. They have a nice base now, and with more snow expected this week (tomorrow night right through Thursday – mostly snow showers, but still, it will accumulate another 4-8 inches) they should have a good week for skiers. There’s a little snow in Central and Western Massachusetts. Even Virginia, Maryland, and parts of Pennsylvania got snow last week. And we know the Midwest is getting a nice dose of wintry precipitation. The big question is will Boston get into the action? Or is it just not our year. I am not sure. As I said a few days ago, I’m more bullish about snow and even cold than I have been in a while. It’s a subtle trend, but a trend nonetheless that has us working our way back to a more wintry pattern. I guess it’s never too late. My prediction is: a. we get minor snowfall (4 inches or so); b. I think that all of the temperature forecasts this week are on the high side, which includes tomorrow’s 51. I don’t think we get to 51 tomorrow, also because I think clouds will envelop the area from a weak disturbance to our north. More importantly, I do see a snow to mix to rain event Saturday, but a slightly colder solution than what we currently have on the models and in the forecasts. Don’t be surprised if some of the snow sticks around. Not for a long time, but I’m not convinced it gets washed away in one go on Saturday with a mixed precipitation event on tap and some cooler (though not cold) air filtering in behind it.

  92. Looking back on this pattern, no storm has gone south of us during the middle of the week, either we didn’t have a storm, or it went west of us, leading to above average temps and/or rain.
    Something to think about, as to are we out of the pattern, or have we just stretched the rubber band to allow a cold storm to happen during the middle of the week?
    Also the warm storm forecast for this weekend, haven’t seen too many if any of those for that part of the week.
    I don’t think we will lose this storm.

  93. It broke into two pieces the one on Friday. The first gave the accumulating snow to CT and parts of RI and MA during the morning. The other was the rain that came in on Friday night.

    1. I was totally drenched coming home from work that evening and I may be once again Saturday unfortunately. 🙁

    1. Well at least that picture isn’t the first thing you see when you go to Accuweather.com, had to dig a bit for it.
      Still though I don’t think those amounts are right.

  96. Talking to a colleague – mid week storm is likely to be a disappointment at LEAST inside 495.

    2. Of course you and your colleague know more than I will ever know. But I just have a feeling this one is enough to bring the plows out. I believe March will come in like a lion. And of course I could be wrong.

    3. Not worried this far out from the event. Everyone was guess including the models at the begining of last weekd event.

      Euro trended south so the storm is surpressed. Now it travels further north giving us rain?

  99. The models have been horrible this year until about 48 hrs in! So we can’t hug any of them right now. Have to look at the other players out there.

  100. And here we go again with snow amounts 3 to 4 days in advance. They’ve had ALL winter to learn not to do this, yet they continue to do this.

    1. Do they not realize that people pay attention to amounts? Especially the TOP number? And when it doesn’t happen, they’ll think all weather people suck, basically.

      What has happened to responsible forecasting???

  101. I wouldn’t be surprised if we jump several places down the “least snowy winters” list sometime in March or even April.

    1. So TK are you saying that the midweek storm won’t the THE ONE to get us past the “least snowiest”?

      1. 7.8″ = 2011-12*(so far)
      2. 9.0″ =1936-37

      1. The midweek one has the potential to knock Boston out of the #1 spot, but they will have to get lucky.

    2. I think we do snow but I think it’s going to be another system getting torn apart as it goes under us. And the main thrust may end up just too far south.

      1. I should qualify that. We snow, but we may not stay snow. The look of the high is not good, winds start to go ESE, which will kill the boundary layer in no time. At first there will be no upper low over us to generate any cold air. That may come later and by then things may be redeveloping well to the east.

        1. If we even have enough precipitation to get measurable snow, it will probably occur mainly outside 495, based on early indications. 495 being a rough guideline, as for my practices I don’t want to get specific. This is mainly the opinion of my colleague but I don’t have reason to dispute it much.

        2. I think TK means that eastern MA will have warm boundary issues due to east wind…whatever snow falls won’t stick or change to rain. But of course, what else is new this crazy winter? 🙁

  104. right now i see alot of models making it that we do not get much snow if any.
    monday partly sunny highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
    monday night partly cloudy lows in the low 30s
    tuesday partly cloudy highs in the mid 40s
    tuesday night increasing clouds
    wednesday through thursday night chance snow, sleet and rain mix. or snow showers highs in the mid 30 lows in the low upper 20s to low 30s
    friday warmer and sunny highs in the low 40s
    friday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 20s rising into the low 30s
    saturday chance of afternoon rain showers highs in the mid 40s
    snow event as of right looks to be nothing more than a 1 or a 2 on my scale of 1-5
    as of right now it does not seem that i will have a snow day 🙁

  105. right now i see alot of models making it that we do not get much snow if any.
    monday partly sunny highs in the upper 40s to low 50s
    monday night partly cloudy lows in the low 30s
    tuesday partly cloudy highs in the mid 40s
    tuesday night increasing clouds
    wednesday through thursday night chance snow, sleet and rain mix. or snow showers highs in the mid 30 lows in the low upper 20s to low 30s
    friday warmer and sunny highs in the low 40s
    friday night increasing clouds lows in the upper 20s rising into the low 30s
    saturday chance of afternoon rain showers highs in the mid 40s
    snow event as of right looks to be nothing more than a 1 or a 2 on my scale of 1-5
    as of right now it does not seem that i will have a snow day 🙁

  107. I know it’s early but I still don’t see a big snow producer, I would be surprised if Boston got over an inch of snow, I do believe it will snowshower and could coat the ground in places but a plowable event? IMO I don’t believe so, snow has to come down pretty hard in March to accumulate on roads. Hope everyone had a great weekend! 🙂

    2. Very warm ground + lack of sustained intensity means it may be VERY hard to make this a widespread plowable event, based on current trends..but still a long long way to go here.

    1. It may be marginal or too warm at the boundary layer by the time the 2nd punch arrives, at least closer to the coast and certainly over SE MA.

  109. Thoughts on 00z NAM.

    Low confidence because it’s outside 48 hours.

    Batch one (Wed PM): Model verbatim says thrust is south of Boston. I agree with this but possibly even further south than indicated.

    Batch two (Thursday AM): Model verbatim says some moderate snow. I agree, to a point, but we will probably see the batch rather disorganized and very fast-moving, along with boundary layer issues. This will limit snowfall potential.

    I supposed there is hope, since the NAM has sucked outside 48 hours anyway. But I get the feeling if anything gets adjusted it may trend even further away from a meaningful event at least for around and north of Boston.

  110. I have a bad feeling that TK is correct on this one and as usual the other mets will catch on later.

    TK, why is it you are always able to see these things right away but other mets take another 24-48 hrs to finally catch on? I would like to think all you mets use the same tools and have roughly the same forecasting experience.

    1. Experience varies. I am 44 years old, so there are many with more experience that I look up to.

      We all have the same tools at our disposal.

  112. 00z NAM had the max vort go south of New England for the second batch, which would limit the precip’s intensity.
    Still a ways out…

  113. I just read Joe’s evening blog and he seems really bullish so far for snow…up to 6 inches!

    It is going to be interesting who verifies in the end…TK or other mets. 🙂

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