Friday June 24 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)

35 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

We’re finally about to get rid of the weather pattern that was causing the atmosphere to be confused about which way to send weather systems. Today, a low pressure circulation that was sitting nearby departs the area as things start to move from west to east again, but there is enough instability about that we will probably see a few afternoon showers popping up again, like yesterday. Unlike yesterday, these will be moving pretty much in the opposite direction (yesterday’s drifted from south to north, today’s will have a more north-to-south motion). The weekend outlook is a good one if you like the feel of summer, and hey, it’s just in time for the first weekend of astronomical summer. What great timing! We’ll have high pressure in control with a general southwesterly air flow but the high will be weak enough that some coastal sea breezes can still take place each day, while some inland areas make runs at 90 both days. Sunshine will be dominant during each day and the threat of any pop showers or thunderstorms will be nearly non-existent. Things change on Monday, however, as a cold front moves slowly across the region bringing our best chance of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity during this 5-day period. Timing of the system looks like it will produce most of the rainfall threat during the afternoon, but may need to adjust that a little bit as we get closer to it. Tuesday, a cooler and drier air mass is due to move in behind that front.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing shower possible during the afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90 except cooler coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Lowering humidity. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82. Wind 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

High pressure is expected to dominate with mostly fair weather for much of this period, temperatures warming to near to perhaps slightly above normal. There may be a weak disturbance or frontal system around at some point around the middle of the period to bring a brief shower and thunderstorm chance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Seasonably warm weather with high pressure in control most of the time. One or two shower or thunderstorm chances may occur but pattern looks mainly dry. Shower / thunderstorm threat may increase later in the period.

35 thoughts on “Friday June 24 2022 Forecast (7:37AM)”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Do you have any idea how far inland sea breezes will penetrate this weekend, especially Sunday?? Many thanks.

    I guess I will have a good idea tomorrow.
    My gut tells me we make 90 here in JP both sat and sun.

  9. Thanks, TK!

    I have been meaning to post that TV met Kelly Bates has returned home to Providence/New Bedford Channel 6 as the new weekend weather talent and science reporter. She had her contract controversially “unrenewed” last September from WJAR Channel 10. Kelly is a Bsp. Feehan High School (Attleboro) and Lyndon State grad. She worked at Channel 6 in the early 2000s.

    In less than three hours, I finish my 39th year as an educator. I am kicking off my summer vacation in style tonight as I am headed to the XFinity Center in Mansfield where I have VIP and backstage passes to the Blizzardpalooza ’22 tour. Death Band is opening for Kuchera which should take the stage around 9.

    Rock on.

    🙂

    1. I think they miss Saturday, sea breeze too soon and too long.
      Sunday, they have a shot, and if they don’t touch it before sea breezing, they may get it on the “6 o’clock jump” at the end of the day. This is going to depend on how much gradient wind we can kick in late Sunday well ahead of Monday’s cold front.

  12. Awesome little system. I was outside in uxbridge and headed home (8 miles) when the downpour began. Coming over the hill overlooking Whitinsville and Sutton (Mark I believe your daughter had a softball game there a year or so ago), I drove out of the rain but could see it in Whitinsville to my right as well as sun mixed with clouds directly to my left. Weather is amazing

    We then had 0.36 in less than 30 minutes.

  13. Joshua…
    Love Stevie Nicks! Her voice was ringing through my work place a few times today as I played an hour of Fleetwood Mac songs in honor of Mick Fleetwood’s birthday. 🙂

    2. Yes, indeed.

      I often play Fleetwood Mac albums. They’re timeless, as are Stevie Nicks’ albums and songs.

      There’s an earnestness and honesty about Stevie, which I really like. She’s had her troubles. She talks openly about them. Her lyrics always have meaning. Some of it is pure poetry.

      Her grandfather was a musician – mostly country music. Her father bought her a guitar at a young age, and it was off to the races. Stevie loved to play guitar, sing, and she began to compose music as a teenager. This photo of her, as a teen, shows the earnestness in her: https://www.rollingstone.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/rs-242650-stevie-2.jpg

  14. My uxbridge SIL was coming down 290 from Boylston when the rain hit. He said you could not see a foot in front of you. Tons of cars were off the road.

  15. Been a busy couple weeks for me so I haven’t been dropping in for my PM commentary as much as I like to, but today you get one… 😛

    It’s all weather-related today!

    I think the medium range guidance is doing well in general. I don’t see any glaring problems today with GFS, GEM, ECMWF. I favor the ECMWF for the solution when comparing the 12z operationals. Still need to watch the guidance which will likely over-forecast rainfall amounts when a system is several days out, only to back off as it gets closer. Knowing this bias in this pattern is helpful for a forecaster and a good example of the use of the model as it is intended, bringing me to my often-used quote: “Guidance not Gospel”.

    As far as the pattern goes, I can’t find a reason to change anything I wrote in the discussion above. Improvement but still a few showers / downpours today with very low coverage. Latest drought monitor reflects the ongoing dry pattern as we have seen an expansion of the “abnormally dry” area but not a big change in the “moderate drought” area mainly from one beneficial event that kept it from getting worse, temporarily. The feel of summer this weekend – yay! But not too hot and not oppressive. I think Monday’s cold front’s timing is on the earlier side maybe cutting the day in half (warm humid vs. drying out). It may take a while to clear behind the front as the boundary is not going to be moving all that quickly. As for the t-storm threat that day, we’ll have to assess that over the weekend. It’ll come down to timing / sunshine – heating. Going forward, as I said, no change really. It looks like a dry pattern overall, lacking sustained heat. We’ll warm up, cool down, warm up, but even with these changes, no big rains (other than brief downpours when we have t-storm chances).

    NBC Boston (ch 10) has hired 2 new people – a news anchor, Cory Smith, and a new addition to the weather team, Tevin Wooten. Wooten will appear on the 4PM & 7PM news on weekdays while our buddy Petey B does 5PM, 6PM, and 11PM. I saw Tevin on air recently and I love his delivery. I think this is a great pick-up for the station!

    Have a great weekend!

  18. I was wondering this and Eric Fisher answered the question someone asked him on twitter. The question was when was the last time Boston made it to July without hitting 90 degrees. The answer is 2019.

  19. As for the first 90 in Boston, the 8/6/1906 date for the latest is safe for at least another year. In fact, given climate change/global warming, I highly doubt it will ever be touched in anyone’s lifetime anytime soon. I am somewhat amazed (albeit pleasantly) that we have had to wait this long (late June) for the first 90 especially given our new climate.

    TK – Will this July 4th be typical HHH?

    1. Well July 4th is not “typically” HHH.
      It happens once every few years on average.

      As far as the actual weather this particular July 4th, we’re talking about something that’s 10 days away so I’m not sure. But if everything times out the way I think it might we will probably be somewhere around the beginning of the arrival of a Canadian air mass.

    2. That date in early August is not necessarily safe and is highly dependent on the weather pattern. It is just not something that would typically take that long to happen.

      Also that date is not necessarily safe based on this weekend. Boston may fail to reach 90 both days.

  20. Philip I was surprised it was 2019. Eric posted on twitter the average first 90 degree day for Boston is June 8th.

    1. I have a theory that a lot of people don’t remember some of the most recent weather (past 5 years), such as the cool June of 2019. 🙂

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