Sunday July 24 2022 Forecast (9:17AM)

96 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

Our hot spell peaks today when many locations will see their highest temperature readings of the stretch, although I do think if a triple-digit high temp is recorded it will be in a place like the Merrimack Valley and not Boston, with a southwesterly wind blowing. Boston’s “hottest” comes with west or northwest wind and lower dew point air than we will have today. But that’s statistics & meteorology talking – either way, it’s gonna be a hot day around the region with only some relief along the South Coast where that southwest wind is coming off ocean water. The humidity spike comes ahead of a cold front which will not be close enough to send any showers and storms into our region today, but will do so on Monday as it passes through. Right now, I’m leaning toward a fair amount of cloudiness and some remnant showers (from today’s t-storms further west) in the morning. This may help prevent many areas from reaching or exceeding 90 degrees, although it will be quite humid so it’s going to feel uncomfortable anyway. Our best shot at a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms comes during the afternoon hours as the front nears. Right now I look at an early to mid afternoon timing for southwestern NH and north central MA, progressing southeastward so that the southeastern MA and RI would see the activity later in the afternoon possibly lingering into early evening there if there are any follow-up showers/storms, which are indeed possible until the front clears the area. I can fine-tune this a bit more for tomorrow’s post. Regardless of storm details, drier air does arrive behind that front during the course of Monday night and will be with us for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with more seasonably warm weather instead of the heat we now have. On Thursday though, the heat and humidity make a one-day come-back ahead of another cold front, which brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region once again.

TODAY: Hazy sun. Highs 92-99, hottest Merrimack Valley, and 85-92 South Coast. Very humid – dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW to SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm may reach southwestern NH and central MA this evening. Patchy fog forming overnight in interior lower elevations. Lows 72-79, warmest in urban areas. Oppressive humidity – dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible during the morning. Showers/thunderstorms likely one or two times in the afternoon to early evening from northwest to southeast. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Muggy – dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W from northwest to southeast by late day / evening.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast early. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 29-31 before shifting offshore with an increase in humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances as August arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Higher heat/humidity including a shower/thunderstorm chance early period, followed by mid-period drying and more seasonable warmth. Humidity may make a come-back before the end of the period along with a shower chance.

96 thoughts on “Sunday July 24 2022 Forecast (9:17AM)”

  1. Thanks TK
    97 degrees yesterday at first pitch in Baltimore. Looking forward to Tuesday and Wednesday.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Made it to 97 here in JP yesterday and we’re already at 88 this morning. How high will it go? We shall see.

    No matter what, a very uncomfortable day in store for us and tomorrow does not look all that great either. I’ll wager we see
    90 tomorrow and Boston will have a week long heat wave.
    Time will tell. Perhaps Logan falls just short.,but bet it makes it.

  3. Thank you, TK. Great discussions throughout this hot spell. I like that term as much as cold snap. Reminds me of what my dad and nana would have called this.

    1. I prefer “hot spell” to “heatwave”. The main reason would be this. For the heatwave, we know the definition. But what if you have 3 days where the high temp is, say, 88, 89, 89, and the dew point is oppressive. To 90+% of people, that’s going to qualify as hot, humid, miserable, etc. (apply whatever adjective works best personally), so it has the same psychological and physical impact as a few days in the lower 90s with dew points in the middle to upper 60s (hot, kind of humid, but still hot enough that you feel uncomfortable). So I think the term “hot spell” works better, because it takes into account the borderline days or the days where the temperature may fall JUST shy of the number needed to “qualify” as part of a heat wave. This is an example of one of those instances where we try to define weather-related stuff by drawing neat little boxes around them. And we know that generally doesn’t work. 🙂

      Another example off the top of my head: A severe thunderstorm. Yes, 58 MPH wind and 1″ hail as imminent threats for a warning, and verified if either or both of these occur. But what if you have a heavy bout of half inch hail that covers the ground, and a wind gust of 50 MPH that brings down your neighbor’s tree across your fence? Technically not a severe thunderstorm, right? But essentially the same impact that one that fits the criteria would have. 🙂

      1. I absolutely agree with all. I’ve often wondered how we do not recognize 89 and humid as just as excessive for many as one degree higher or even a few.

  4. We went into a park in Belmont to celebrate my oldest’s birthday. My mom and a dear Belmont friend fought hard to keep it a park for kids after the school burned down rather than build more houses. I was worried about the heat, but it was surprisingly comfortable. The trees…most planted in my mom’s memory….kept us shaded.

    My six grandkids……as still as we could get them ……

    https://imgur.com/a/IzVB7bJ

  5. Thanks TK !

    Humidity must be back. Close up of camper was quite hot !!

    We’ll see what the truck temp shows as we head south.

    It’s cloudy up here right now, but very mild and oppressive.

  9. Logan is 95 and Norwood and Bedford are 97 and it isn’;t even Noon Yet, YIKES!!!!

    Someone is going to see 100 today.

    We’re only 93 here. Sensor is in share under trees, so I am sure
    there some transpiration going on. My sensor seems to catch up later during the afternoon. I was behind yesterday, but still
    ended up at 97.

    We shall see today.

  10. SREF Significant tornado ingredients for tomorrow

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f033.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036.gif

    SPC has the whole region in 2% chance of tornado.
    Will be updated around 1:30 PM.

    Previoud

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_0600_torn.gif

    1. SW wind at 20 with DP 61.
      Lower DP = Possible higher temperatures, but SW wind “should”
      prevent 100, yet it does NOT appear that way so far. The weather does what it wants to do.

      1. We are getting mixing of the atmosphere which is literally bringing dry air down from above. Do you remember me talking about this on the blog earlier this week? This was one of the things that was going to prevent at least parts of the region from being immersed in 70 plus dew point for multiple days.

        1. Of course I remember that.
          I am, however, quite surprised that Logan is already up to 97 with a SW wind at 20 mph.

          1. SW wind trajectory only touches water briefly off cost of new Jersey and Long Island sound. Plus those waters are quite warm now. Maybe that is why it is still getting so hot.

            “approximate” wind fetch.

            https://ibb.co/ZM8ZXgh

            1. If you get enough downward moving air you can heat it up really quickly. Usually that takes place when a West Northwest wind is downsloping off the hill / mountains. Once in a while if you have the right kind of mixing you can heat up and dry out the air on a southwesterly wind. If we had a wind that was less gusty it would probably be a couple degrees cooler but the dew point would probably be several degrees higher as it would be taking the very moist surface air south of Boston and moving it right up and instead of temporarily blocking it with punches of drier air from above.

  18. This long hot stretch has been an interesting test for our house. I’m pleasantly surprised how well our judicious/obsessive, use of windows, window shades, and window fans has kept our house cool for so long. With no A/C, the first floor is currently 77 and the second is 78.

    Our house was built around 1800 on top of a basement and fieldstone foundation from 1738. I think that one of the keys is the dirt-floored basement. We also saw a big improvement with year-round temperature control when we had the house insulated via MassSave about eight years ago.

      1. I think the pockets of the highest heat are variable and a function of wind gusts. That’s the only explanation I can come up with.

        Also a really neat thing to observe is Boston being at 98° at observation time with the dew point of 60° has essentially the same heat index as Martha’s Vineyard with an air temperature of 84° and a dew point of 77°.

      2. I bet it happens at Logan as well. Regardless it’s a new record for the date.

        How many more records fall the rest of the summer? 🙁

        1. We haven’t really set any records this summer. It’s been cooler than normal up until now.

  22. And to think at one point the GFS model, for this weekend, was forecasting abundant cloud cover, periodic rain, and high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. 😉

    To be fair, this was a forecast that was for over 300 hours into the future.

    1. 101 in Wilmington …..Woodshill land

      Looks like the pocket of near or around 100 is up in that area

      1. I just calibrated my thermometer recently so I’m pretty certain it’s right on the button.

        I think this area just to the northwest of Boston is maximizing the forced downslope effect. It’s hot as heck but rather dry! And the breeze is ventilating if nothing else. Definitely takes the edge off what could have been much more brutal.

  24. 2:00 p.m. observation at Logan 99° dew point 59°. This has been an absolutely fascinating process to watch. Boston never gets to 100° when it’s humid. It has to dry out. Whether they have officially touched 100° yet or not I am not sure. I haven’t looked at the in-between ops yet because I’m running around doing errands for my mother. Haha!

  25. 100F on truck thermometer since Concord NH.

    102F here at Newton rest area on 128 S

    We have 3 stabilizer pieces between the truck and camper. Still this wind today is causing some tugs now and then on the steering wheel 🙂

  26. Logan is currently reporting their high temperature so far as 99°. We will see if that’s where it ends up.

    It’s all land breeze there today so there won’t be a “6:00 jump” or anything like that. Basically they have another 90 minutes to exceed their current high temperature before it probably becomes impossible. I think as soon as the wind starts to diminish the dew point will come up and the temperature will gradually decline.

  27. For what it’s worth, the forecast high temperatures in the Worcester Hills were too warm. The high temperatures are underachieving there. This includes the forecast by yours truly. Usually when I write my ranges I have specific numbers in mind for the major cities. I envisioned Worcester reaching 95 or 96 today and so far their reported high is 91.

    Boston may have tipped their record but all in all this is really just kind of an ordinary hot day in a New England summer.

  28. Latest SPC outlook for tomorrow has expanded
    the Severe risk area to cover a good chunk of New England:

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif

    Same deal for the small tornado risk

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

    spc discussion

    …New England to the Mid-Atlantic region, and westward into the Mid
    South…
    As a cold front advances eastward into/across New England and
    southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the day Monday,
    thunderstorms — likely ongoing locally at the start of the period
    — are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through late
    morning/early afternoon. The increase — fueled by a
    moist/destabilizing pre-frontal environment — will be aided by a
    belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading across the
    area in tandem with short-wave troughing sweeping across the St.
    Lawrence Valley through the day. With a somewhat-more-southerly
    component to the low-level flow, veering and increasing with height
    to southwesterly, shear will favor organized storms. While bands of
    convection should become the primary storm mode, updraft rotation in
    stronger cells may support risk for a tornado. Otherwise, damaging
    wind gusts will likely be the primary severe risk, along with some
    hail potential. Storms will spread eastward with time in tandem
    with the cold-frontal advance, gradually moving offshore but
    lingering longest over southeastern New England and the mid-Atlantic
    region.

    1. 15Z SREF just coming out. I want to see what
      the significant tornado ingredients looks like.

      1. Do they have something called insignificant tornado ingredients? 😉

        I’m totally kidding by the way. Haha!

        I’m hoping that tomorrow’s timing allows me to chase, ideally to Revere Beach so I can get pictures of the sand sculptures with departing thunderstorms behind them. I mean that’s not asking for too much, is it? 😀

        1. Go get em! I think perhaps I might get some rain at my house tomorrow. At least it looks like it now. 🙂

  30. The dew point continues to drop at Logan airport and is now down to 56° making the heat index actually lower than the temperature. Heat index 96° air temperature 98°. This is as of 3:00 p.m.

  35. Let us hope today will be the last 100 for this summer. One is “one too many”.

    I do wonder though how many 100 degree temps Logan averages in a season.

    1. Based on last 14 years, then “about” 0 .3 days per year.

      4 times in the last 13 years. so take 4 divided by13

      Do since records were kept and you would have better number.
      But recently, this would be it. 🙂

      1. Boston has reached 100 27 times (including today) in 150 years of records. That equates to roughly once every 6 years.

        Years with multiple 100-degree days in Boston:

        1911 – 4 days!
        1919 – 2
        1944 – 2
        1949 – 2
        1952 – 2

        1. A little further breakdown by month:

          June – 3 times
          July – 15 times
          August – 7 times
          September – 2 times

      1. About 400’. The highest point in town is just over 900. It’s temps are low 90s. This area is lagging. Not just south Sutton

  39. The South Coast water temps having gotten very toasty is now another humidity source. Its that time of year we can call it “Gulf of Mexico, north”

    Current Cape Cod, MV, Nantucket and Long Island dewpoints are running 73F – 77F.

    Plymouth-Taunton-Providence area dewpoints up to 70F, Marshfield up to 68F.

    1. The water has been great for swimming yesterday & today . The Rip current up here keeps the guards busy as I saw multiple water rescues this afternoon . Very professional life guard operation up here .

  40. I am back home now and I feel like I am still down in Virginia and in Baltimore last evening watching the Yankees game. As I mentioned earlier 97 degrees at first pitch. Thankfully a breeze came during the game which drew an applause from the crowd. I feel for those fans who had tickets to the day game today with heat index values in the low 100s. Will see if we get some thunderstorm action tomorrow.

  42. Friday night was an embarrassment and the Red Sox have not won a series against the AL East this season. I wonder if they will be sellers at the August 2nd trade deadline???

  43. Fwiw and that probably doesn’t amount to a plug nickel. I was taught that no single player and no team wants to be in a slump.

    You don’t get to that level by being bad. What they need is support from their fans.

    Repeating. Please take it for whatever it’s worth.

    1. Adding the team leader has to step up and set an example. Yaz was benched in spring of 68….maybe 69….during a slump for so much as just walking in from left field rather than jogging in.

  44. JJ, the Red Sox are an embarrassment at this point. It’s sad. They have talent, but aren’t showing up to the park, in my view. Very dysfunctional. Undisciplined at-bats; a dreadful bullpen (majority of the relievers should be released at this point). But far worse is the defense. The (mental) errors in the field are so astoundingly bad, and it’s a daily occurrence. I think they should sell and be willing to part with pretty much everything, except Devers.

    1. I laughed at that every time I watched it! The 1 in 10 or so walking upright makes it even better.

  46. I agree with you Vicki. If I am a fan of the Red Sox going back to the two games against the Yankees prior to the All Star Break I would be livid. I feel bad for the fans that had to sit through that game Friday night and see what took the field that night.

  48. FWIW …..

    00z HRRR has mid 90s tomorrow Mass/NH border southward with high humidity.

    Decent coverage of storms mid-late afternoon, but not appearing to be a squall line.

  49. Agree with you Vicki regarding the glorious night. This has to be one of the nicest summer time nights for sitting outside, even the mosquitoes are not that bad for this time of the year, due to the lack of standing water. This is the only positive aspect of having drought conditions.

    1. With so many treatments for ticks, loss of mosquitoes are a side benefit. It sure haas been special sitting out. As you said….a summer night.

      I hope everyone was able to enjoy even a bit of it

Comments are closed.