Monday July 25 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)

185 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

While some areas dried out in yesterday’s peak of the hot spell, the humidity is back in all areas today as a cold front approaches the region. It won’t be as hot as yesterday with the higher humidity and increased cloud cover, but it will still be a pretty uncomfortable day overall. Additionally, we will have to be weather-aware pretty much all day, from late morning onward, as a up to a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms can occur, in a trend that takes the threat from west northwest to east southeast across the region as the frontal boundary progresses into and eventually across the region. The atmosphere is quite unstable today, and even with limited sunshine we can see storms that are strong to severe. A few cells will have the ability to rotate and produce the tornado risk that we can sometimes see here as well. So not to alarm anybody about widespread destructive weather – as it won’t be that, but we are vulnerable to severe storms today and should be on the look-out for them. Be ready to move to place of safety if needed. The threat ends this evening, lastly near the South Coast, as the front finally pushes through and offshore. This will also introduce drier air and end the hot spell, with seasonably warm and dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves in. This high slides offshore Thursday and another cold front approaches. This is the day we will increase the heat a bit more and spike the humidity once again, and the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will present itself once again. That front may take until sometime on Friday to push through the region, so a chance of showers and thunderstorms will have to be included in the forecast for that day as well.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun. A couple or a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms starting mid to late morning in southwestern NH to north central MA and progressing east southeastward as the day goes along. Thunderstorms can be strong to severe with hail and damaging wind gusts. Brief torrential rain in some storms can lead to low visibility and flooding. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Muggy- dew point 70-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, and may be variable and strong around storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast early. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 88-95. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 30-31 before shifting offshore with an increase in humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances as August arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Drier air arrives for early period. Humidity and a shower chance makes a come-back later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

185 thoughts on “Monday July 25 2022 Forecast (7:29AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you Tk.
    Lost power last evening from 6:50 to 8:50. Was the house ever hot! We were about to take a ride in the car when power was restored. Kudos to Eversource for the speedy restoration.
    Manhole covers blew and there was a fire under ground.

    1. Glad you got it back. I wish we had anything other than National grid. I’m close to reporting them but need to figure out to whom

      1. Be careful what you wish for! We have Unitil and the highest rates in MA. Our power was out for 12 days during the 2008 ice storm and was only restored because National Grid came to the rescue.

        1. Yikes. I should qualify. I give up with NG high level folks. Other than the guy who was out here the last two times, the linemen and every person I have spoken to during the last three weeks has been amazing. But they cannot directly speak to a supervisor nor can I.

    3. Glad power was restored without a longer wait.

      Saw on the news last night, some towns having power outages because of various issues occurring.

      1. Thank you. It was getting rough and just about time for action. We even looked at hotel availability. If we were going to do hotel, it was going to be a nice one, that’s for sure!

  7. Thanks, TK.

    Pretty brutal week ahead, in my book at least. The sustained humidity is really making me ill: Headaches, nausea, faint at times. Just not well.

    Struck by how little rain we’ve been getting as fronts pass through. It’s really paltry. Perhaps that changes today, but I am VERY skeptical at this point.

    The grass and vegetation in Northern NE looks okay, by the way. Clearly, they’ve been getting showers/downpours periodically.

    1. Hang in there Joshua.

      Tomorrow evening should have a chance to cool to something more comfortable after sunset with lower humidity by then.

    2. I feel your pain and for the first summer in my life
      I am experiencing many of your same symptoms.
      DAMN! it sucks getting old!)(@&#*!@&*()!@)(@#*(!)@*#(!

  11. Latest SPC update

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.gif

    https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

    discussion:

    …New England and northern Mid-Atlantic region…
    Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form through this afternoon
    along/ahead of the surface cold front, near a prefrontal surface
    trough, and farther south over portions of the Virginias, over
    strongly heated higher terrain in the warm sector. An existing
    plume of clouds/precip and widely scattered embedded thunderstorms,
    from northern ME into PA, should continue to break up gradually on
    the north end this morning, permitting some destabilization in its
    wake, but also setting up localized to mesobeta-scale areas of
    differential heating that may aid storm initiation from midday into
    the afternoon as well. Scattered damaging gusts, and several
    severe/50-kt gusts, are possible with the midday/afternoon activity.
    A marginal/conditional tornado threat also may exist over northern
    areas, where low-level and deep shear will be the greatest under
    relatively maximized flow aloft.

    1. Norton NWS discussion

      The CAMs show a somewhat messy evolution of convection this
      afternoon with a mix of multicellular clusters and discrete storms
      developing and pushing south across SNE. The primary threat will be
      damaging wind but can`t rule out large hail with any rotating
      storms. Also a tornado is possible with favorable 0-1km helicity,
      decent low level lapse rates and low LCLs in this tropical
      environment. It appears storms will be focused mostly south of Route
      2 through the afternoon then reaching the south coast toward
      evening. Given strong shear and instability, expect storms to hold
      together as they approach the south coast. Heavy downpours are likely
      with any of the storm given high PWATs but fast storm motions will
      likely preclude a significant flood risk. Could see localized
      rainfall amounts up to 2 inches and minor flooding with any training
      storms.

    2. No MDs or watches at this time. I would expect one for our area
      a little later. We shall see.

      1. Ohhhhhhhh yes. I can as well. I’ve said for years it is as if nature is trying to severe it from the US and send it out to sea. Now man has United with nature in that effort

  15. So a whale Breached and landed on a fishing boat off of Plymouth. And another whale recently bumped a small boat off of Plymouth.

    Me thinks the whales are uniting against too many boats

    3. Still no MDs or Watches from the SPC.
      I would imagine we will see one or the other around
      the Noon hour or thereabout. We shall see.

    1. yup.

      mid 70 dps, shear and strong flow aloft.

      Any cell that is on its own will need to be monitored closely.

  18. If I had to pick a spot for a tornado warned storm in SNE today I am thinking it will be around the Springfield area. I started with sun now the clouds have rolled in. Sunshine is not our friend on day like today when you have a front coming through as it will only further destabilize the atmosphere.

      1. I think being later in the season, the SST along the south coast now so warm and a healthy wind aloft today, IF something spins, it, in addition to the areas mentioned, has a chance to develop further south and east in southern New England.

        1. I do agree with that. NWS said storms would hold together right to the South coast. Any discrete cell must be watched very carefully.

  19. Thanks TK.

    So sorry you lost your power JPD. Thankfully it wasn’t much longer. Hope your wife is ok. Just one more day!

  20. Severe storm issues for our area in Pepperell. This cell is moving northeast. Are we under the warm front still?

    1. Be safe, Chris. I may be wrong but that could be part of the system Pete said in tweet above is not related to the afternoon storms.

    2. That cell is moving well N&W of you.
      We are not under a warm front, but well entrenched in
      a very warm and moist air mass. Cold front will be cutting
      through it later.

  23. There is plenty of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) for these thunderstorms to tap into.

    1. It is so humid and the dynamics are there, so I think you are correct, Of course, any sun that does arrive will aid the storm
      development.

    2. Who knows, maybe this will translate into an afternoon of steady rain with nothing severe at all. One never knows.
      Certainly nothing impressive at this time. Best action so far was to our North earlier.

      1. Pretty nasty line forming and making its way through central update NY. That’s probably what will get us

  29. Cell over the ocean, east of Portsmouth, NH has a red/green couplet on dopplar for a possible waterspout.

    1. Box extends good distance east and south of respective coastlines, lending idea that storms in this scenario have a good chance of getting to the coast very healthy.

  32. From Eric Fisher
    With the watch hoisted, we’ll be watching the skies this afternoon

    What’s been out there so far is the pre-frontal trough…cold front is still a ways away

    1. I’m not experienced at interpreting dopplar radars, but there sure looks like a green/red couplet that’s become a little tighter the past few minutes.

        2. Thanks JpDave !

          I think they may have to watch that one all the way to the coast.

          Couplet not looking as impressive now, but I can still see some contrasting green and reds.

              1. Thank you. It is past my DIL and my cousins area. I hope it doesn’t develop more

                Are the purple areas the ones you and OS were questioning?

                1. It was a cell I saw a green and red couplet in earlier. One indicates wind moving towards the radar, the other indicates wind moving away. When they are very close together, that can be a sign of rotation within the thunderstorm.

                  I don’t see that currently.

                  I’m not sure if it applies to this radar, but on the Taunton NWS radar, when I see purple, that sometimes can indicate hail.

                2. Thank you very much for the lesson!!! OS spent some time years ago explaining rotation signature to me. Sadly, my brain no longer retains info that long.

  34. Sun trying to come out where I am after the pre fontal trough has passed by. This was nothing more than a few light rain showers.

  35. 87F with a dew point of 76. Hit 89F an hour ago, where I am. I went to the grocery store and the air was thick. It’s soupy outside, but not like a broth. No, it’s more like a heavy chowder. It’s kind of amazing that Boston can be like Accra, Ghana, in summer, and just over 4 months from now can on occasion be as cold as Nuuk, Greenland.

  38. It looks to as if all cloud debris will be out of here soon with sunshine following, then the real McCoy sets in.

    2. We still have many good ingredients for late afternoon and early evening, but I wonder if the best upper level support just passed by with those southern NH, coastal NH and coastal ME storms

      To see the upper level winds, continuing those intense storms, off the Maine coast now is a thing of beauty.

      2. I was just about to post something.
        I want to check a model first, but I am thinking that
        the highest helicity values are now gone. This “should” limit the tornado threat. I just checked the 18Z HRRR. Although a big slug of high helicity just passed of the coast of NH and S. Maine, the helicity builds back in. By the time those
        storms get here, it will be sufficiently high for the “T” word.

        HRRR fro 12Z or 7PM

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ref1km_ptype&rh=2022072518&fh=5&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Helicity

        https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=ehi01&rh=2022072518&fh=5&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

        Sounding out by Worcester

        https://i1l.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2022072518_005_42.26–71.6.png

  39. Full sunshine out now where I am. Now will see what action this cold front has in store for us.

  43. So far NOT impressed. it looked like something juicy was evolving, but then it weakened. Line doesn’t look like much at the moment. We shall what’s shaking as it moves Eastward. I am thinking 7 to 8PM for eastern sections. We shall see if line picks up steam.

  44. Temp says 79 at the. Beach but the sun is blazing & it feels like 100 no kidding . Spent most of the day in Portsmouth NH where there were 4 different torrential down pours.

  47. Thoroughly and completely unimpressed!
    I suppose there is still some time for storms to get juiced up, but so far blah blah blah

  50. Looks like most of the action is to our South down Jersey way all the way to the DC area and Virginia. Looks like the atmosphere is blowing us off.

    1. Thanks, JPD. I had to look hard. It seemed to pop and fizzle. We did have a lovely soft sun shower from it complete with rainbow.

      1. Oops I misread. There are some impressive clouds down mark way now. But have no idea if the indicate anything

  57. Unimpressed is an understatement. Not a drop of much-needed rain. Is it coming? I doubt it. But, it’s still very warm and sticky outside, with little improvement this week. Yes, a tad better. But the tropics rule and will for the foreseeable future. Miserable and completely drained of energy.

    1. I will never be disappointed with a team I support. But then I’m smart enough to know weather is just as unpredictable and I’ll never be disappointed with that. The answer is neither….especially if there were a chance of rostation

    1. and Framingham.

      On the dopplar radar, there’s a windshift or something from the north shore southwestward, just north of Boston. And these cells are rapidly developing on it near Hopkinton and Framingham.

  63. And now near Arlington.

    Stay tuned folks, may have something interesting in the next hour or 2 yet.

  65. Just got an alert from My Radar Pro telling me heavy rain starting in 14 minutes becoming intermittent over next two hours

    I need to check radar. Last I saw, the line from CT was inching its way into MA

    1. On the dopplar I am looking at on weather.us there’s a very visible convergence line, front or whatever and these storms just popped on it. This line, front extends to the CT storms.

  66. See if this works Tom. Look at the line you mentioned develop. So cool

    KBOX – Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1 7:41 PM EDT #mawx #ctwx

      1. Awesome !!

        Yeah !! That fuzzy white line !!!!!!!!!!! The storms are developing so quickly on it.

      1. I suspect that is the best we will get webster cell fizzled and north section of CT line fizzled

        No touch up on that photo. Just an iPhone pic

    1. Yes. The fuzzy line. A boundary of some type. Perhaps the cold front. Was very cool to see the storms pop very, very quickly northwest of Boston.

  71. I have the Sox game on and what a cloud there is behind center field.

    Even though its sprinkling, they have paused the game and are rushing to get the tarp on.

  72. Not exactly sure what that boundary was, looks like some sort of convergence to me, but was clear to see on radar like you said, and the storms fired right along it instantly.

    1. Neat for sure.

      Seabreeze and outflow boundaries usually show up well and often on radar. I dont recall fronts showing up that well as often.

    2. Now patches of blue sky above. Perhaps another sprinkle. But that’s the extent of it here. Really nothing so far. Still looks threatening, but that darker clouds are passing to my north and west.

  74. The boundary/front is still visible.

    It has an area without convection between northeast CT and the southwest suburbs of Boston.

    But as that sinks southeast, it will be bumping into dps in the low-mid 70s, so, I’d think what just happened near Boston could well happen in the zone, at any time, where there is no convection at this moment.

  75. Puzzled by the rain delay at Fenway. It’s not raining here. I’m about 1.5 miles from the park. It’s unclear whether it will rain. It’s quite strange to see some dark ominous clouds produce next to nothing as they pass by. Must say this is way beyond my understanding of weather. One would think the conditions are ideal for precipitation. Apparently not.

    1. I give up. Dudsville. Nothing is happening. Perhaps Back Bay recorded a trace of rain. Maybe. Drought may become severe soon as I just don’t see any real rain at all in the foreseeable future. Not buying the Thursday and Friday chances. It will rain somewhere, but not in Boston and vicinity.

  76. Torrential rain, thunder and lightning when that line of storms moved through the Hartford area about an hour ago. Seems to be losing its punch now as it presses southeast towards RI and SE CT.

  77. Pretty crazy scene on the summit of Mt Washington yesterday as three cars burned to the ground…

    https://twitter.com/WXKnapper/status/1551360439900061696?s=20&t=O-D6UoMpWcqFM0uyW0hZ5g

    Not sure how the fire started in one of the cars but the strong winds at the summit quickly spread the fire to the two adjacent cars.

    I was up in the southern White Mtns yesterday hiking on the Welch/Dickey loop and can attest to the gusty winds. People thought we were crazy but it was actually quite refreshing once we got higher up where temps were in the mid-upper 70’s with increasing cloud cover and a constant breeze.

    1. Oh my gosh. Thanks Mark. Sure seems the place to go as I know a number of other folks up that way……and why not ❤️

  78. I’m sure we will find out in tomorrow morning’s blog on why this front was a dud. Cloud debri? I have no idea.

    1. Storms developed offshore instead of over the landmass (us). Too little, too late.

      I looked out my window at sunset, maybe 6 or 7 big drops on my front sidewalk. I believe there was actually a rain delay at Fenway?

      2. They developed over land. I was under one in Revere and it was developed before it got to me. Lynn, Marblehead, and parts of Cape Ann got pretty solid downpours, as did I at Revere. Fenway, which got a downpour, is definitely over land too. 😉

        1. Huge downpours in Swampscott and Marblehead. Grateful for the lawn and trees getting soaked!

          1. The nature of summertime convective activity. This is why I didn’t go for general coverage yesterday. 😉

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