Tuesday July 26 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)

63 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure builds in with dry and seasonably warm weather today and Wednesday. The coolest areas will be the higher elevations of interior locations today with a westerly breeze and lower dew point air moving in. The coastal areas will be the coolest on Wednesday with sea breezes occurring. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday as a broad but weak trough slides into the Great Lakes. Its surface reflection will send a warm front through our region during the first half to two thirds of the day with variable cloudiness and perhaps a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms (timing may need to be tweaked), and a burst of higher humidity following its passage. As the trough progresses eastward, a cold front will then cross the region during Friday, bringing the chance of a shower or thunderstorm to parts of the region (again timing is uncertain and will be narrowed as we get closer). High pressure builds in with warm and dry weather Saturday.

TODAY: Early to mid morning cloud/sun mix South Coast / RI / MA South Shore with sunshine elsewhere. Late morning on – sun/cloud mix all areas. Highs 78-85, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with passing showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Partly cloudy thereafter. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 31 before shifting offshore with an increase in humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances during the first several days of August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

High pressure brings dry/warm weather early in the period and returns with the same later in the period while mid period is more humid with a shower and thunderstorm chance.

63 thoughts on “Tuesday July 26 2022 Forecast (7:46AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.
    I must say I was disappointed in yesterday’s results. Sure, some areas got rain, but as per usual, my area pretty much got SKUNKED yet again. It did actually rain for a few minutes, leaving the ground and pavements wet, however, all vegetation were left with a tease and begging for more. Perhaps 0.01 inch.

    My rain gauge is kaput. And the drought continues to worsen.
    My lawn is now officially FRIED!!!!!

  4. TK, it’s best if I not look at TV forecasts anymore. I was definitely under the impression that Boston would get shower and T-storm activity yesterday. Not continuous, but it was more or less a sure thing that showers would develop, according to the mets I watched. On the other hand, you pointed our how coverage would be hit or miss and that in some areas almost entirely miss, such as my neighborhood. Logan Airport’s trace of rain yesterday was what I got, too. Practically nothing.

    1. Yup. I watch the TV mets, but take it with a grain of salt and compare to what TK says and go from there. More often than not, TK nails it.

      Yesterday, I was encouraged by the SPC discussion and the NWS discussion. Other than the one storm
      earlier in the day in Southern NH, the whole Severe Thunderstorm Watch was a BUST. Yeah sure, I understand that it is only a watch and no guarantee that those storms would materialize. But one would think that there would be more wide spread convection. NOPE. Forecasting weather will never be an exact science.

      2. For the area that the watch covered, there were more severe thunderstorm warnings in the 2 hours BEFORE the box was issued, than there were during the 7 hours the box was in effect.

        There were a grand total of 3 reports of hail, all quarter sized
        There were 10 reports of wind damage, 3 of which occurred before the box was issued.

        This watch covered all of ME/NH/MA/RI/CT, as well as Long Island and NYC. This box was an EPIC fail by SPC.

    2. Oh, the raging Mississippi!!!
      A river I have only seen from the air on multiple occasions, including one Spring when it was flooded.

  7. Meteorology, clinical medicine, and economics share a few things in common. All three are not exact sciences, though all three rely on science.

    As an economist, people often ask me to predict the future; things like recessions, GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. First, I tell them I am not a macroeconomist. Then, I say, it’s very hard for macroeconomists to predict the future, as there are many confounding factors, exogenous influences, and behavioral tendencies missed by the models. That’s no-one’s fault, in particular. But, when an economist predicts the future with certainty, as some are prone to do, one should be skeptical about the claims.

  8. Being the curmudgeon we all know I am…..

    I absolutely agree TKs forecasts are exceptional. I read here before anywhere else and often only read here. And I’ve said that many times. But we are blessed with some of the best on air meteorologists in the business. I’d be surprised if TK didn’t agree since he has also said the same a number of times

    I had to go back and reread TKs blog from yesterday because I thought I’d missed something. The blog here pretty much mirrored the Mets I followed yesterday…..Pete and Eric. I also usually follow JR, but didn’t as much yesterday.

    As far as a bust….my DIL sat in Manchester NH for hours under warning after warning. From here…out the window and on radar… I watched multiple storms try hard to develop. They just couldn’t get it going. I plan to chat with Pete a bit more about drought being one possible factor.

    Along with Tom, I agree with JPD… Forecasting weather will never be an exact science.

  12. Thanks TK.

    The only way we in SNE especially will ever see any substantial rain is for the tropics to get good and active. Not a direct hit here, but one of the Gulf Coast states to send abundant moisture our way for all day rains, very little wind.

    I seem to recall many summers in which widespread showers/thunderstorms were common. Why this summer are they so widely scattered, hit & miss? More “miss” than hit. 😉

        1. Or was it TK or SAK who said,
          “When in drought leave it out”
          Meaning any chances of rain!!!

          1. That particular quote has been around for a while and comes from people before both of us so we have both probably said it multiple times. 🙂

    2. The answer is real simple.
      It’s just a function of the predominant weather pattern.

      There are times when the weather pattern doesn’t change for a long period of time or any changes you experience are brief only to go back to the prevailing pattern. Then there are other times when the weather patterns change on a somewhat more cyclical basis. This is largely a function of the major indices that drive the world’s weather. As we know, there are many combinations of those indices, many of which we are still learning about and will continue to need to pursue.

      When you focus it down, last year was wet, this year is dry. Just the way it goes… 🙂

      On the plus side, so far this summer has been a great vacation summer for most people.

      1. You always look on the bright side, don’t you. Wish I could be like that. I tend to look at the negative side of things. 🙂

        1. I agree it was very rough for some. I struggled this year also which seems to come with age. I seem to recall you do not have AC which had to be very rough.

          On the up side…..We didn’t have the tornadoes everyone was concerned about which is a huge plus to me. Today is glorious; and with maybe an exception or two, evenings even with the heat have been quite lovely. It could be Texas, as a wise person said last evening,

          All that said, I personally prefer colder weather seasons but the warmer ones will always fascinate me.

  14. 12z GFS …. now slightly under 240 hrs

    building your average, ho-hum, 597-600 dam ridge at 500mb.

    Chicago has projected 850mb temps of 28C !!!! Minnesota has a 30C contour at 850mb.

    We get to 22C.

    1. Of course, there will be other scenarios of this in the coming days, but I think this is the 3rd or 4th day in a row of a signal for a big heat dome around the mid to late first week of August. somewhere in the central or east-central US.

        1. Why not. July 22 is oldest’s bday. Aug 6 is youngests. And lest we forget the superstorms and others on March 13….that is sons birthday.

          Let’s see. Our last hurricane was Mac’s birthday. Our anniversary is Dec 9 and we know how many storms occur then

          Only my birthday seems to avoid weather; and other than our son, I’m the only one who loves weather

  15. Tony Dow passed away at 77. Such a timeless show with messages in every episode. My 10 year old granddaughter is watching Leave if to Beaver now. We simply do not have shows like that any more; and if we come close, they are cancelled.

    1. So his management team just s removed the story that he died. Now they say ge us in hospice care.

  16. The 106 at the Worcester on August 9 seems a tad aggressive on the 12z GFS as does the 5 straight days between 98-106 at Worcester during that time period.

    I had mentioned in early July I thought the back 2/3 of July would be hotter in the 87-92 range. Until about 7/19 that held, then we bumped more to 93-98 on average for 4-5 days. But in general humidity would be summer like, but not oppressive on most days. That did hold, as did the prediction that the rain would not be region wide and vary from town to town. Which is for sure the pattern.

    I will say those are ungodly numbers from the 12z GFS and not sure I have ever seen numbers in SNE quite like that. (I do remember the NGM doing a 2 day stretch in the early 2000’s in August at 104-106. It was 4-6 degrees warm) August 9th the GFS has as large swath of SNE (BDL-CEF-ORH-BED-LWM-MHT at 105-110). But just as I am the wet blanket of reason when the model shows 42″ of snow at hour 294 and say its overdone, well I suspect the heat is as well.

      2. At least dew points would be projected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s and not 75. Again pointed out previously that to get the highest temps in our area, dps would have to be lower.

        1. What worries me most is a couple of times a future forecast by GFS has been questioned here and it turned out to have seen something close to reality

          1. Yeat, it was really close when it forecast 3 days of rain and temperatures in the 60s for this past weekend in the same range that it now is projecting all-time record heat.

            I think the GFS has the same odds of verifying as the Red Sox do of winning the AL East this season.

              1. Remember your blutarsky on 6/22/22 that Seattle was predicted to hit 111 on 6/28? It officially hit 115. Judy one of those couple of examples.

                I am NOT saying our temps will verify. I am saying exactly what I said..,you cannot absolutely rule it out.

                2. So you don’t do any extra research. I was wrong. It is Portland that hit 115. Seattle hit 108.

                3. Let me give you a clue – I picked an example that was valid for this past weekend around here, you cherry-picked one example for a completely different part of the country from 13 months ago. That’s not how this works.

                4. Ahhh sak. You just don’t read.

                  Read my comment again.

                  “What worries me most is a couple of times a future forecast by GFS has been questioned here and it turned out to have seen something close to reality”

                  I never specified a timeframe.

                  I said a couple of times THE GFS has been right …there are others. I won’t bother looking since you will never admit you are wrong. Grownups do that ya know. I did it earlier. The GFS was right in the instance I gave. Would you like to dispute that.

                  Please go away. You can bully others. It will never work with me.

  19. Once again, I was using an extremely recent example of a 10-day forecast valid for this region. You used a 6-day forecast from 3000 miles away and 13 months ago.

    That’d be like me talking about how the Red Sox got swept by Toronto this past weekend, but you replying that they beat team in a game on June 14 last season.

    Your example has no relevancy whatsoever, but I’m the one that “doesn’t read.” I could also point out the numerous times it has forecast rainfall around here over the past several months and failed miserably nearly every single time. But hey, keep clinging to that 1 time it was almost right a year ago.

    1. You a lot of work….none that I want any part of. Have a great night SAK. You win. The GFS has never been right

  20. On a day that saw St Louis get 7+ inches of rain in 5 hours, Barrow, AK has received 1.03 inches of rain from a potent storm and is closing in on its highest recorded total of 1.30 inches in 1 day.

    1. Well, I did not realize that Barrow, Alaska is on the dry side (for rain – they do get more snow than “average”, but not a ton). Found some stats:

      Climate in Barrow, Alaska
      Barrow, Alaska gets 5 inches of rain, on average, per year. The US average is 38 inches of rain per year.

      Barrow averages 38 inches of snow per year. The US average is 28 inches of snow per year.

      On average, there are 143 sunny days per year in Barrow. The US average is 205 sunny days.

      Barrow gets some kind of precipitation, on average, 88 days per year. Precipitation is rain, snow, sleet, or hail that falls to the ground. In order for precipitation to be counted you have to get at least .01 inches on the ground to measure.

      Weather Highlights
      Summer High: the July high is around 47 degrees
      Winter Low: the January low is -20
      Rain: averages 5 inches of rain a year
      Snow: averages 38 inches of snow a year

      1. Nice climate summary !

        Yes, they have a fairly dry climate because the Arctic ocean is either ice covered 9 months of the year or even when it’s not, I don’t think it gets much above 40F. So, not much available moisture from that source. And then, to their south is a fairly dry land climate.

        So, to get an inch of rain in 1 day is really something at that latitude, which is just north of 71 North.

      2. Wow. I truly would never have guessed. The five inches of rain a year especially surprised me. Thanks oceanair.

Comments are closed.