Wednesday July 27 2022 Forecast (7:45AM)

62 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

The final 5 days of July will feature a typical mid summer pattern in terms of sensible weather, but we do remain in a long term dry spell, as our disturbances have really only been able to produce brief downpours and no widespread beneficial rains in succession. This pattern definitely holds as we head to the finish line of the middle month of meteorological summer. But there are 2 days that feature the chance of some shower and thunderstorm activity. Today is not one of them, however, as high pressure provides us with a mostly sunny and seasonably warm day with low humidity. Coastal areas will experience cooling sea breezes this afternoon. Clouds will sneak in during tonight, a signal of the approach of a warm front. This front will bring lots of clouds and a round or two of showers and possible thunderstorms Thursday morning and midday, introducing a shot of high humidity to the region. A cold front will approach the region later Thursday, but won’t quite get here before the day ends. However, a pre-frontal trough can and probably will spark some thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There will be some forecast fine tuning needed to try to pinpoint the storm potential for coverage, timing, and intensity. The cold front will cross the region during Friday, and a weak upper level trough may trigger an additional shower or thunderstorm for some areas, but most of Friday will be rain-free with warm air and lowering humidity. The final weekend of July looks fabulous with high pressure providing lots of sunshine, warm air, and comfortably dry air.

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising to the lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with passing showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Partly cloudy thereafter but a chance of thunderstorms late afternoon or evening, favoring areas from I-90 north. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible evening. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then a sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and evening. Highs 83-90. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure shifts offshore to start August with warm to hot and increasingly humid weather during the first few to several days of the month. Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms also increase, but no widespread beneficial rainfall is likely to occur in this pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Quick drier interlude is possible around the first weekend of August depending upon the ability of Canadian high pressure to intrude, before we increase humidity and shower/thunderstorm opportunities once again.

62 thoughts on “Wednesday July 27 2022 Forecast (7:45AM)”

    1. Thanks JJ !

      In the key, I guess thunder = 0

      Can we create a category for -1, call it sunny, nice and disappointed and put a donut contour for it right over Boston to providence ??

    2. Thanks JJ. Wankum last night showed a slug of rain coming through here then stated something like let’s “HOPE” we get some rain out of this. 🙂

      I’d wager Boston gets ZILCH! We shall see.

  6. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.gefs.sprd2.png

    1st week of August, PNA projected to go negative, implying west coast trof. So, east of that should be a ridge. With this projected PNA, I buy the signals of a developing heat dome.

    https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.gefs.sprd2.png

    NAO projecting slightly positive, perhaps implying less or little high latitude blocking, which can influence where central Canada trots and closed lows track and thus how much the jet stream can buckle southward towards the northern US.

    So, yesterday’s 12z GFS had little jet stream buckle with tons of northeast heat and last night’s 00z allows a jet stream buckle with a much shorter shot of less intense northeast heat.

    Will be fun to watch how the projections unfold in the next 5 days to bring this time period into the short range.

    The 00z Euro, from overnight at hr 234.

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sfct&rh=2022072700&fh=234&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2. I don’t like the looks of that Euro run!!
      I did see that the GFS has backed off considerably on the big heat. More in line with what TK and JMA were agreeing
      to yesterday.,

      We’ll see what the 12Z runs show. 🙂

      1. I’ve been in the car all morning so have not been able to look closely but good on GFS. Maybe EURO will catch up

        1. I wish we could have the EURO from 2012-2015 or so back.

          In my opinion, it felt like that version of the EURO would lead and the GFS would catch up.

          It feels like this relationship has reversed a bit the last year or 2.

          If that feeling is accurate, I’m not sure if its because the upgrades to the GFS have vastly improved it or the upgrades to the EURO have made it less effective.

            1. Yes !! I also think it got what Joaquin and I think Isaac did and I think it was pretty good also with the mid-latitude flow as well.

              2. I also see a bit of a love hate thing with the GFS. Which I get. It can be a complete bust. But then there are a couple or maybe even a low few times it has seen something pretty far out that might not pan out exactly but that is close enough to realize it did at least see something. If that makes any sense at all.

          2. The Euro has been utter garbage for over a year. It’s temperatures are consistently 3-6 degrees (or more) too warm for highs, and in the winter, it’s lows can be as much as 10 to 20 degrees too cold during cold snaps. It’s too the point that I barely look at its 2m temps any more.

            Picking out 1 or 2 tropical systems that it did pretty good on 5-10 years ago doesn’t change the fact that it is nearly useless now.

  10. 12z GFS back to heat dome being further east in the US again.

    Roasting !!

    Pretty warm to occasionally hot early next week before this …..

    1. There’s a little hint of 1988 in that pattern. Not identical but some similarities.

      2. Thanks TK !

        I appreciate that comparison because back then, I wasn’t really following the models as often, or if at all, so its good to get that perspective.

  11. I put on TWC on a break today just to check…

    I had it on for 15 minutes.
    I saw one weather map.
    Followed by two segments that were not really weather-related. Followed by 10 minutes of commercials.

    If the founders of that channel could only see it now. Maybe it’s a good thing they cannot. 🙁

    1. I haven’t watched that channel in so long I can’t even remember
      the last time. It had gone in the toilet, so I stopped watching,

  13. Yesterday, Barrow, AK did receive their highest daily recorded rainfall in 1 day, 1.42 inches

    Its a very short time of weather data being recorded, since 1920.

    In that 102 years to date, it has rained over 1 inch only two other times.

  14. Re: Euro

    The current version of the European model, being a shadow of its former self, is much less reliable than it used to be. Through a series of upgrades that didn’t quite work as expected and obviously a delay in getting those corrected and upgraded in the right direction, the model has been rather unreliable over the last few years, and as it turns out is essentially like a completely different model. Because of that we can’t really use its performance from several years ago and further back as a measure of what it may be able to do now. There is a large disconnect between that time and this time. We are basically relearning the capability of that piece of guidance, knowing so far that it is not anything like it used to be. This will change, of course, but what we don’t know is how quickly. That part is the waiting game. All we can really do is use it the way it has been recently so we have a much smaller sample of things to measure it by. But that is an aspect of the model side of meteorology.

    Re: personal

    A very tough work week this week due to a series of things needing to be repaired and a major staff shortage. I am wiped out and thankfully I only have one more day before a 3-day weekend. This afternoon and evening I am heading up to Hampton Beach to get away for a little while. If all works well I will be getting some close-up photos of the racks and mortars that they use to launch their fireworks display. If that doesn’t happen today it will be happening soon and I will share a couple of the photos here when I get them.

    Re: weather

    I only had literally a couple minutes to look at new stuff so far today but based on what I have looked at I don’t really have any changes to make to my discussion and forecast above. So until tomorrow… Have a great afternoon and evening. 🙂

      1. The insanity at work lately. I absolutely love that place and the people I work with, but the state of things of late has made it very energy-consuming. At the same time it’s still rewarding. Even with the proverbial crap hitting the proverbial fan this week (and the last few really), I still view it all as a positive overall situation. 🙂 I’m just tired today HAHAHA!

        I got a 3-day weekend this week, probably next week as well (not sure if it’s the 4th of 5th that I’m going to be off yet).

        Week after, I’m off the 11th. Later in August another 3-day weekend that involves Nate’s birthday. So there will be a few breaks here and there. 🙂

        Hope your summer is going well!

  15. Kind of a P.S. to my comments above.
    I have to add the GFS in with the Euro in terms of struggling with temp forecasts out beyond a certain time frame. No doubt as it stands now, the upcoming pattern leaves the potential for some really hot days later next week, but the high temps in the 100 to 108 range you see on some of the guidance are simply not realistic. I had to chuckle when I saw the temp forecast for 18z Friday Aug 5 from today’s 12z GFS model, having the temperature at 69F on the tip of Cape Ann and 103F over the Merrimack Valley (Lowell area) at the same time. You know at that point that something in the model’s programming is overdoing both what would be a hot land breeze inland and a cooler sea breeze on the shore. So a meteorologist, knowing this issue, would apply that when making a long range forecast (in this case it would have to be a 10-day forecast like you see on NBC Boston). We’ll see the guidance slowly correct for this as that day gets closer and closer on the forecast. This is why it’s always wise with temps (and snowfall amounts for another example) to just look at the overall idea & trend instead of paying attention to specific #’s so far in advance. Yes, we have heat potential for sure coming back next week. That much we know. We’ll stamp some more solid #’s on that when we know it. 🙂

    P.S. (part 2) … I just had the best cookies & cream iced coffee. 🙂

  16. Has there been any wildfire smoke up our way yesterday and today? The sky has has that smoky look to it.

    1. Oddly…or maybe not oddly….my daughter and I mentioned that when we were doing errands this morning. My eyes have been bothering me also.

  17. If I may break from weather for a second and ask for prayers and positive thoughts for my sister-in-law, Sheri. As you may remember, she was in the hospital from Jan 6 through June, then rehab and then home. She was readmitted to the hospital last Friday. Today a decision was made to send her home with hospice care.

      2. I’m on the deck and we suddenly have more dragonflies than we’ve seen all summer. I like to think our angels are riding on their extra set of wings watching over us all.

  19. TK-August 14-15 2002 NGM went 102-106. Ended up 97 and 101 at Logan and 98-102 in the 128-495 inland areas. Lows were 76-78….

    It is not going to be 105-110 here but I think the signals are there for the first half of August to have multiple days 92-99 with more dry than wet as the trend.

    1. JMA, I agree with the pattern assessment. I was confident that we’d have the “cooler” regime for the first part of summer, but I never could grasp what it may evolve into after that – more of the same, hotter, something in between. But pretty solid signs now.

      Ah, NGM. We used to joke back in the day that was the “No Good Model”. But it had its wins. 🙂

  20. Looks like a version of Build Back Better – though it will be renamed – is back on, as Schumer and Manchin have apparently come to an agreement. If so, this is major news. The bill would include a modest set of energy and climate change provisions, deficit reduction measures, some tax increases for those making $400k or more, and drug pricing provisions along with a reinforcing of the Affordable Care Act. Senator Tina Smith, Minnesota react on Twitter with a “holy shit” when she heard the news. https://twitter.com/SenTinaSmith/status/1552414678214664193

    I’m sure Mitch McConnell reacted, too, but his “holy shit” would have had more of a negative connotation, as he did not want any package to pass.

  21. Vicki, I just saw your note on your sister-in-law, Sheri. I am very sorry to hear this. My thoughts are with her, you, and your entire family during this very difficult time. I’m sorry I didn’t respond earlier. I just overlooked your post.

  22. Vicki – I am very sorry to hear your news about Sheri. I will be sending positive thoughts to you all.

    1. Thank you. She is such a fighter….beat cancer and bacterial meningitis a few years later but this just took her strength.

      1. Praying also, Vicki.

        And thank you, TK. I’ve been MIA due to travel, but I appreciate all you do on this blog.

    1. Just seeing that message now.
      Prayers, positive thoughts. I will also ask my mom to join in when I check on her in a few moments.

Comments are closed.