Friday August 26 2022 Forecast (8:14AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 26-30)

Our focus today will be on the thunderstorm chance for the region. Even as I write this update in the 7:00 a.m. hour the short range guidance differs on timing and even coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the area today. Based on this, and knowing the fickle nature of convection anyway, my idea is to forecast isolated showers/storms for the first part of the afternoon anywhere north and west of Boston, and then one or two line-segments or clusters of storms any time from late afternoon through early evening, with the heaviest favoring being in central to northeastern MA and southern NH. We’ll have to watch how far any initial batch can perpetuate itself into areas further south and east as it may have to rely on an outflow boundary and no other focus other than the pre-frontal trough that helps initiate it. Some of the short range guidance develops additional showers and storms in the early to mid evening hours especially along to south of I-90, and some of this could survive toward the South Coast later in the evening. We’ll just have to watch how things evolve and kick into now-cast mode when needed. As a side note, I’ll be in southwestern MA much of today and will try to monitor from there as best I can – though I may have limited access. Thunderstorms have the capability to be severe today, so if you do have outdoor plans or will be traveling, please keep this in mind. Main threat is damaging wind, with hail being a lesser threat. Any storm can produce torrential rain which can drop visibility very low and cause quick flooding, and lightning as well which are always dangers whether a storm is deemed severe or not. Activity settles down by later tonight and the frontal boundary glides through the region under cover of darkness, exiting via the South Coast early Saturday. While the frontal boundary won’t sit all that far to our south this upcoming weekend, it looks like it won’t really have the ability to generate any further activity that would impact our region, so it looks like a fair weather weekend, governed by high pressure that will first be bridged across the St. Lawrence Valley Saturday, with a north to east wind in our region, and then slide its way to our east bringing a southeasterly air flow to us on Sunday. This will turn more southerly Monday as the high drifts to the south and we warm up most efficiently at that time. One more bout of heat may be ours for Tuesday as the high drifts down into the favored location off the Atlantic Coast to deliver that to us. Wildcard for Tuesday: How fast does the next front approach. If it’s quick, we have the thunderstorm chance later in the day, if not, it’s just a fair but very warm to hot day. I’ll look more at that in the coming few days.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers/thunderstorms early afternoon mainly southwestern NH and central MA, then showers/thunderstorms more likely in one or two waves favoring central to northeastern MA and southern NH mid afternoon to early evening with a few storms probably into northeastern CT and northern RI to interior southeastern MA by then. Any storms can be severe with damaging wind gusts. Highs 83-90, cooler in some South Coast locations. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms evening, favoring the I-90 region southward. Patchy fog developing. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW overnight.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 83-90 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

With uncertain timing of the next frontal boundary impacting the region will include the chance of showers/thunderstorms for August 31 with high humidity. Cooling/drying to start September as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure follows it, then later in the period shifts to the south allowing the region to warm up again.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

No change from yesterday’s idea. There’s a little uncertainty in the pattern as some tropical activity from the western Pacific may have a hand in altering the pattern currently shown on medium range guidance. For now, calling for a mainly dry weather pattern with some up and down temperatures and only briefly unsettled weather at some point during the period.

138 thoughts on “Friday August 26 2022 Forecast (8:14AM)”

    1. The dew point has actually gone down a few degrees in your area the last several hours. Better get your sensor checked. 😉

    1. Thanks JJ. I may be wrong but it seems slight includes this area. I don’t think it came this Far East last night.

  6. The slight risk did expand a little further to the east and also expanded to include most of CT

  10. Thanks TK.

    I have a good feeling that this will be “the day” for Boston. If nothing else, the SPC has now included Boston, albeit barely.

  11. This won’t be a widespread severe weather event. There will be a few towns that could see a storm that will pack a punch.

  13. So far, the main event is still West of Albany some 160-180 miles from the MA East coast.

    At 40 mph that is 4-5 hours away
    at 30 mph 5-6 hours
    at 20 mph 8-10 hours away,

    According to Albany NWS storms are moving NE at 30mph,
    not sure how fast the Eastward progress is

    https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=ALY&wwa=special%20weather%20statement

    Now will we get some air mass pop-ups ahead of this
    main action. Will be watching for that.

    We shall see.

        1. I was hoping I was seeing what you saw. 🙂

          Let’s see if it further develops or goes poof.
          It is also pretty far South. Likely would head into
          the Gulf, IF it were to survive that long?

    1. Was just about to check. Thank you JJ

      Also convection out ahead of the main action is firing now
      with 2 cells in MA and 2 in CT. We shall see what develops.

  19. This won’t be a big severe weather event but some towns could get hit hard with potentially a damaging wind gust and torrential downpours.

  20. Part of the SPC discussion that I find interesting

    Convergence near the developing surface low and trailing surface
    trough and continued heating will lead to increasing storm coverage
    throughout the afternoon, progressing eastward. Deep-layer shear
    averaging near 35 kt, as well as veering winds with height suggest a
    several storms may be severe, producing a combination of damaging
    gusts and isolated hail. Steepening low-level lapse rates, and moist
    boundary layer, and weak SRH values could support a brief/weak
    tornado with the stronger isolated cells.

  21. While the 500 mb heights don’t lower for long and the 850 mb temps don’t cool for long, deliver a continental/Canadian bubble of high pressure nearby in early September and the much longer nights will deliver 40s and 50s as the GFS projects for Friday late night/dawn Saturday morning in New England on Labor Day weekend.

    And the 12z is cranking up another projected monster gulf hurricane.

    1. With the important caveat of not taking anything too serious after 72 hrs, the 12z GFS offers 85F+ Mon-Wed of next week and Sun and Mon 9-10 days from now.

      An overall warm pattern and an ongoing drought. Multiple 90F days after today still to come ????? (At least with some short but potentially very cool nights mixed in between 2 more warm spells)

    2. Yep it was 90 long enough to not be considered the blip the met who at this moment shall not be named by me explained a few days ago.

  25. I got the typical warning blast on my phone while I was driving. Scared me as that can mean tornado warning. I pulled over and it was thankfully just for a watch. I don’t recall ever getting one for a watch but it is better than no notification

    2. The northern most one has me most concerned. Rotation seems to be tightening, at least to these eyes.

      2. I’m not sure which one you mean but I guarantee your eyes see rotation before most so I absolutely trust them.

        Is it the one headed in the direction of Concord NH? I know concord is not included in the box but want to warn my brother and his SIL

  29. Storm Prediction Center was placing most of SNE in a 2% tornado chance today. When you see that number while it is a low chance it is not a zero chance.

    1. My mind always goes back to you saying it was 1 % for the June 1 tornado breakout and take even 1 seriously.

  33. Philip see above for Logan hitting 90. This is the explanation EF who is the he who shall not be named mentioned by me above gave for not recording 90 a couple of days ago even though it hit 90 for about five minutes that day

    “ Those are the quick obs that sometimes have rounding issues from Celsius ”

  34. Thanks, TK…

    Kenny Chesney is at Gillette tonight for the first of two shows. (I am not going.) I hope the worst of the weather stays away from Foxborough for the safety and comfort of his fans!

    This show/tour has been postponed twice since 2020. I am sure Gillette has emergency protocols in place.

    “No Shoes, No Shirt, No Storms!” 🙂

    1. My oldest had tickets…postponed from 2-3 years ago….but were not thrilled that everyone was on top of the next person.

    2. I live right near Gillette. I despise the Country Fest concert series for so many reasons and have enjoyed the reprise past couple years. One is the massive amount of traffic that started this morning and will continue all weekend.

  36. Boston now under a severe thunder storm warning.
    Dollars to donuts, nothing remotely resembling severe happens here. Fine with me as long as we get some decent rain.

  38. Watching my lightning display, it “appears” to me that the number of strikes is diminishing. We shall see,

    1. It’s bad. And it takes a lot for me to say that. It is hide under the bed bad

      My older grandson who is horribly sensitive to loud noises is having trouble. His sister just ran to find his noise cancelling headphones for him

        1. Smart young man. Ace I can honestly say I have never heard anything as loud as one of the claps. I thought it had hit the house.

  40. Wow. This one didn’t miss us but I don’t think we got the thick of it and even what we got is crazy. Rain wind thunder like I’ve not heard in a very long time.

  41. Lightning seems to be increasing again.

    Storm echos have pockets of hail signature.

    Thunder getting closer and louder still.

    Sure looks like it WILL RAIN HERE! YEAH!!!!

  43. BIIIIIIIIG gust of wind. Strongest I have seen in a long while.
    Easily 50 mph and it could have been 60. It was strong!

  44. BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
    Tornado Warning
    National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
    354 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

    The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a

    * Tornado Warning for…
    Northwestern Tolland County in northern Connecticut…
    Northeastern Hartford County in northern Connecticut…
    Southeastern Hampden County in western Massachusetts…

    * Until 430 PM EDT.

    * At 354 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
    was located over Windsor Locks, or near Windsor, moving east at 50
    mph.

    HAZARD…Tornado and quarter size hail.

    SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation.

    IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
    shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
    Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
    damage is likely.

    * This dangerous storm will be near…
    East Windsor around 400 PM EDT.
    Enfield and Somers around 405 PM EDT.
    Ellington around 410 PM EDT.
    Stafford around 415 PM EDT.
    Willington and Wales around 425 PM EDT.
    Union around 430 PM EDT.

  46. Finally some REAL rain. Still not pouring buckets

    NOT impressed with the rain. Probably better for grass and shrubs. 🙂

    Lots of thunder and lightning. I love it!

    1. Strike ALL over the neighborhood, including one in the middle of Jamaica pond a mere 1,000 feet from me or so.

  47. Downpour here now! Made it home JUST in time.

    And let’s hope Boston finally get its beneficial rain.

    1. I think we will benefit as it is raining decently but NOTHING like
      we usually see in a thunderstorm.

  52. Quite a storm passing very, very close to Coventry, CT (Mark ?)

    Looks like some strong winds with it.

  56. I would say that the city of Boston received its first REAL thunderstorm of the season.

    Would you agree JPD? 🙂

    If I had been awakened in the middle of the night it would have definitely scared the heck out of me to say the least. Not that it didn’t already give me pause in the daytime safe inside my house.

      1. Same here. And Philip, I agree that it would have scared me in the middle of the night. It scared me in the middle of the day as it is

  57. And Boston now suddenly is NOT the driest on record this summer. Funny how Mother Nature pulls the rug and says NOPE, no record. I’m curious what Logan (where it’s official) receives. I’m thinking it’s the same across the area. We all know just a few miles can make a difference.

  61. Thanks, TK.

    As you mentioned – and SAK echoed – all it would take is one thunderstorm some time during the last days of August to push the rain total above the 2.05 record for July/August. You were both right. I was wrong. I’m glad I was as we needed the rain.

    1. It’s a darn shame it won’t benefit us a whole lot drought-wise. But hopefully it will add to bodies of water and not dry up too quickly.

        1. Thanks for posting! That stuff I’ve been putting on my lawn all summer helps with this. It prevents the soil from becoming hydrophobic and compacted. My lawn has almost completely bounced back after these couple of episodes of rain.

  63. I left the City of Champions around 4:30 in the middle of a rather impressive storm. We had gusts I’d estimate at 40 mph, frequent lightning, and visibility probably down to 1/2 mile at times. By the time we got to Quincy, the rain was mostly done. Got a nice sunset picture in Beverly.

    I’m at the Cabot Theater in Beverly for the evening to see Ace Frehley. (Been a card carrying member of the KISS Army since 1978.)

    1. So does the link you sent me that I posted give the official numbers including precip? You don’t have to answer if you song want. Just nod your head 😉

  66. Six Flags was great. Some delays there, and not everything opened back up, although we still had a good time and ended up with free tickets for our next visit (so long as they are used this season). Looks like a visit to the park in October and ending with Fright Fest is in order. 🙂

  68. No tropical cyclones anywhere in the northern hemisphere.
    Very unusual for late August. Not even a depression.
    And we are just about certain to break that record in the Atlantic I mentioned previously (more soon).

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