Saturday August 27 2022 Forecast (8:19AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 27-31)

On this final weekend of August we enter the final 5-day stretch of meteorological summer. But don’t worry too much, if you are not ready to say goodbye to summer you can wait until the end of tourist summer, which is September 5 (Labor Day), or stretch your summer out even longer by waiting until the actual end of summer on September 22 (the autumnal equinox). If you wanted to say goodbye to “solar summer” (the 3-month period with the most sunlight), you’re too late. That ended on August 7. Maybe next year! But anyway, what do the last 5 days of meteorological summer look like, weather-wise? The weekend weather will be dominated by high pressure that is centered to our north today with a light northeasterly air flow, then with its center shifting to the east of the region Sunday, the air flow will shift more to southeasterly. This provides fair and seasonable weather, coolest maximum temperatures along the coast and warmest over the interior, and not bone-dry but tolerable humidity levels. Early in the week, high pressure sinks southward, into a position to deliver us more heat and higher humidity. We won’t be returning to the high heat levels previously seen in the summer, but nevertheless some areas make a run at 90 Monday and possibly crack it Tuesday. We’ll be watching the approach of a cold front later Tuesday that should be passing through the region during Wednesday. The details to be worked out regarding this include a more precise frontal timing and any rounds of showers and thunderstorms that occur. Right now leaning toward most of the unsettled weather being in northern and western portions of the WHW forecast area late Tuesday and pushing east and south through early Wednesday, with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible during the day Wednesday. Obviously, more fine-tuning is going to be needed for this part of the forecast.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind E under 10 MPH to calm.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 67-73. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers possible favoring south and easterly areas early in the day. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible midday or afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s but lowering slowly. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

High pressure builds in and may dominate this entire period with dry weather, a cool-down at first and maybe at the end of the period again, with a warmer spike between them.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

There remain some uncertainties about the pattern here, but the latest trends are for high pressure to be dominant with dry weather much of if not all of the time and near to above normal temperatures. This isn’t a high confidence forecast though. At this time of year, interactions of even distant tropical cyclones on the larger scale pattern and even our own closer-by tropics, which have been quiet, can become a factor in a short period of time.

42 thoughts on “Saturday August 27 2022 Forecast (8:19AM)”

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Logan received 0.41 inch of rain yesterday while Norwood had
    0.66

    My 1/2 guestimate looks pretty good for JP. 🙂

    1. Having been gone for about 10 days, Marshfield’s lawns in general look a lot greener now. I think our area received more rain than Boston, the Merrimack Valley and the north shore.

      1. Oh boy. Very scary. I saw warnings about the cell headed your way with comments that it could end up doing damage in Sudbury and Framingham. Glad you are all right.

  4. Checking Taunton climate data, the 4 major reporting stations are between 3.7 and 4.4F above average for August.

    May add a couple tenths of a degree to the monthly departures with near average temps today and tomorrow and well above average temps Mon – Wed.

  5. Thanks TK.

    Still rather disappointing in the rain department for Boston. Can’t even get 0.50”.

    Heatwave early next week means 23 days at the end the month. With 7 to go, not totally impossible to get to the 1983 record of 30.

  6. Thanks, TK.

    We had quite the storm yesterday w/ lots of thunder and lightning and downpour here in Sudbury. There was one storm in the Worcester area that showed the red and green colors together (velocity?) and the met on NECN at 3:00 said the possibility of a tornado. But no tornado warnings. And the storm would hit our area by 3:35. Well, just to be safe, we took shelter in our bathroom just in case. At 3:30 it started w/thunder, heavy rain. I ventured into the living room for a minute and it was pitch black out and the trees were bending in the wind. Shortly after, (was nice to see some puddles out there) the storm was over but the thunder continued for some time.

    So, what then if the radar showed the colors touching each other would prompt the possibility of a tornado or an actual tornado warning on the radar, unless of course someone actually saw a funnel.

    1. That velocity couplet has to be strong enough before the NWS would issue a tornado warning and it would be totally based
      on the radar and not a visual. I saw several couplets yesterday, with the strongest one is Central MA that I thought might get tornado warned, but it did not.

      I experienced the strongest wind in my neighborhood it a long long time. Vicious thunder an d lightning. I thoroughly enjoyed it. I was at the window most of the time. Did not see any hail, however.

      1. I’d say the same for here. I figure you and I as well as some others have been missed by these cells for a while so Mother Nature overdid herself.

      2. Thank you for answering my question. When I hear the possibility of a tornado I have mixed feelings. Anxiety but curiosity. Husband said we should get safety. He had no anxiety but I was the one who went and looked out the window. We have a lot of trees around our home and some are very old, so if a tornado, wouldn’t want to be near window. But still wanted to see what was going on – I love looking at the sky, storms or not. Last summer watched the beginning of what became an actual tornado in Stow.

      1. That’s ok, thank you. What actually was most scary seeing was the velocity on the radar and where it was heading, not realizing what JP Dave explained. Looking out window was kind of fascinating – so dark and seeing the trees bend. I love the weather and especially thunderstorms. Would like to be a storm chaser but my anxiety would get the better of me. Seeing a tornado in the distance in a non-populated rural area that wouldn’t harm anyone would be special, ‘though.

  11. Thank you, TK. Good day you arranged for our small celebration of life. Now if someone had only reminded me that I planned to take the patio cushions in if rain was expected……

    My youngest forgot also so I don’t feel quite as foolish. We are trying to dry them out now

  12. For Rainshine: Re: Radial Velocity

    Here is a screen shot of the Nexrad Radar just before the NWS issued a tornado warning for the Revere tornado in July 2014.

    This is the Storm Relative Mean Radial velocity display for the Revere tornado.

    https://i.imgur.com/yqRWy0g.png

    See how strong that couplet is.

    2. Yes, definitely can see that. Thank you! Would put up an emoji for a smiling face but not sure how to on desktop. Did it once awhile ago but forgot. Will try again and see what happens . . . 🙂

  15. Today’s 06z GFS has no precipitation across the entire WHW forecast area for the first 12 days of September.

    I’m not saying that will verify exactly, but that sure would be a dry start to the month!

      1. Remains to be seen. At the moment, I see a pattern that offers several shots of cool air from Canada mixed with warmer episodes when high pressure sinks to the south, so we can sneak a couple hotter days in there which is typical for September anyway, since it’s still summer most of the month. 🙂 We’ll see how it breaks down.

  16. Record low number of tornadoes for the US likely to be set this month, unless something significant happens in the next few days, which is extremely unlikely. So far, the US has recorded 17 tornadoes in August 2022. The previous August record low for tornadoes is 37 set in 2014. This would shatter that record. The US will easily break its record for the fewest tornadoes from June through August.
    ACE in the Atlantic is under 10% which is extraordinarily low for this time of year. In addition, if we get through Monday (August 29) with no named storms in the Atlantic, this will break the record for the longest period of time during hurricane season without a named storm in the basin.

    This is the second straight day with no active tropical cyclones anywhere in the northern hemisphere. That has happened 2 times this month: August 16 & 17 / August 26 & 27. It’s very unusual to see it that quiet right at the start of the hemispheric peak of the season.

    Seems that tropical cyclones and tornadoes have taken a bit of a summer vacation…

      1. Perhap it will take a left turn and cross Fla ito the Gulf?
        My money it a right turn OTS. IF the next run even has it. 🙂

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