Monday September 26 2022 Forecast (7:43AM)

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September’s home stretch is upon us and we look at its final 5 days here. And it looks like a fairly quiet and mainly dry stretch of weather for us. A warm front went by the region last evening, kicking off a decent patch of showers and thunderstorms in southern CT, RI, and southeastern MA. Today and Tuesday we will have an elongated trough of low pressure centered to our west, and it will be fairly mild with a southwesterly air flow dominating. The only chance of any rainfall comes in the form of spotty, quick-moving showers that may cross some areas later today to early this evening. The trough swings eastward and we see a cooling trend with a shift to a more northwesterly flow during midweek, and as surface high pressure builds in we’ll have a fabulous ending to the month late this week.

TODAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. A passing shower or thunderstorm is possible late in the day mainly west of the I-95 belt. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm early. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

The forecast for a good portion of this period hinges upon the future movement of the remains of Hurricane Ian in the Gulf of Mexico. The possibilities range from wet weather arriving over the October 1-2 weekend to wet weather arriving after the weekend to wet weather never arriving (the third case being one where everything gets shunted to our south). Right now, I’m leaning toward the second and third scenario options with a dry weekend and chance of rain, that may stay south, following that. Much refining of this forecast to come…

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

This is still a lower confidence forecast based on the uncertainty that precedes it, but leaning toward a dry pattern and variable temperatures including another shot or 2 of very cool air from Canada.

77 thoughts on “Monday September 26 2022 Forecast (7:43AM)”

      1. I have mentioned that myself many times but it never seems to change with media.

        A lot of the forecasters will remind viewers not focus on just the center or just the category. But that message gets lost somewhere between them and the rest of media…

        Hoping that issue can be addressed a little more directly. It will have to happen on an individual basis, basically station to station, outlet to outlet. Communication is key to understanding.

      2. Based on the video I posted above The damage could be catastrophic. I have seen that evacuations are occurring.

  12. I think what also concerns me about the 12z GFS is …..

    ok, Ian would landfall at 972mb, but when its not too far west anf southwest, it projects on the run to max out at 948 mb, again, very close to the close.

    The water at that time will probably be building in Tampa Bay, so the surge could tie closer to the lower pressure than the landfalling pressure.

    2. I was noticing exactly that as well, so I agree 100%.

      AND, what if the model UNDER estimates the weakening? then what? We won’t know the whole story until it is over.

  16. I’m very familiar with the Sarasota area. Forecasts for this area not good with possible slow forward speed. A lot of the rivers and canal’s go several miles inland. St. Armand’s and Siesta Key not the place to be.

  17. The models bring the storm close to Tampa now at a timeframe where the average error is close to 200 miles. I wouldn’t be focusing on specifics that much yet.

  21. With the potential for some weak and variable steering, the model track error can still be quite large, so we need to still focus on the range of possibilities while folks in the path prepare for the worst case scenario (and probably get less than that, hopefully).

    As far as the medium range outlook for New England – all 3 major global models are either a South Coast scrape or a complete miss as of 12z operational runs.

    I’ve heard some forecasts out there about a wet weekend being a certainty. There is NOTHING certain about the weekend up here yet. We cannot be certan this far in advance. Weather forecasting is not that precise 6 and 7 days away. But we all know this here so here I go preachin’ to the choir again. 😀

    1. Have you noticed that some of them that have the same track have vastly different timing?

      My favored track is the pink one at the moment. Slower and more left.

  23. Well, Ian has certainly checked the rapid intensification box. It so far hasn’t been *quite* as extreme as I would’ve expected – maybe just a little bit of lingering shear and dry air that it has to work out – but a Category 4+ peak remains more likely than not, and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a more explosive burst of intensification about 12-24 hours after it comes off of Cuba.

    The model shift east towards Tampa is also concerning. That’s easily the worst case scenario if it pans out and would be catastrophic. But definitely not a done deal. The HWRF remains quite a bit further west…

  24. TK and I are in aligned here. Go west. Florida / Alabama line??

    I know the Tampa story drives the headlines, but slow northern movement and the counter flow tells me west.

    1. Hi JMA. I pray you are right. I’m assuming that with the end result unsure and the tremendous risk to Tampa bay that you’d support the evacuations.

  25. Thanks TK.

    Had a decent slug of moderate to briefly heavy rain move through CT last night that produced just shy of a quarter inch of rain. Up to 5.8″ now on the month of September.

    Regarding Ian……

    These are the latest Spaghetti plots (with ensemble runs):

    https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_09_ens.gif

    Note the operational and ensemble runs still have a range from as far south as Naples to as far NW as New Orleans…given those ensemble runs out in LA and MS are few and far between.

    Still a wide cone and huge range of solutions.

    1. A lot of that rain in Florida is from an old frontal boundary that is finally washing out. They have had heavy thunderstorms across central and southern Florida on an almost daily basis for the past 7-10 days. Most of Central and South Florida has received 5-10 inches of rain over the past 2 weeks.

      I forecast for a radio station in Boynton Beach, and have friends in Orlando, so I am constantly looking at what is going on down there.

      1. Not a situation you want to be in when you have another 5-10″+ of rain coming this week…that will push many areas over 20″ for two week totals. Heck that’s almost half our yearly rainfall up here!

  32. I find this scenario fascinating.

    To see the extremely low projected dps not too far north and west of a hurricane, such a hostile environment so close. Aloft shear increasing too.

    How close to the coast will it maintain its lowest pressures/strength ?

  33. 12z HWRF at about 84.5 degrees W longitude, 18z HWRF running now at about 84 degrees W longitude at the same comparative time. So about a 30 mile eastward shift . (Fwiw) 🙂

  34. Heavy rain moving through here now in Manchester CT. Been coming down pretty good now for about 30 min. Sky is completely clear just to the west but still pouring.

  41. Let’s assume for a moment that the ECMWF track is correct.
    That would be a very windy rainstorm for Tampa, but a much much better outcome in terms of storm surge flooding there. In fact it would push water out of the bay. Gasparilla Sound and Charlotte Harbor on the other hand – they’d have issues.

      1. They will handle big rain much better than major storm surge flooding. Even with the slower movement if it curves into the coast sooner, that will take the edge off the storm surge with hardly any speed to add to the winds on the right flank.

        Also some potential “help” is even a sooner curve doesn’t help the hurricane escape potential dry air ingestion and wind shear weakening it more quickly than forecast.

        2. Should there be concern that the GFS forecast pressure for now is 975, the Euro is 966 and based on the recon plane, the pressure is slightly under 960. So, a little stronger than what the global models project for 8am (12z). Thanks !

          1. While models tend to forecast pressure in some systems too low, they don’t do well with rapid intensification.

            Also, I’ll mention this again, but some of those rainfall forecasts may also be overdone. It’s going to be hard to beat Hurricane Easy, 1950, up to 45 inches of rain!

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