Tuesday November 8 2022 Forecast (6:21AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Lots to cover in today’s blog post! While we don’t chat politics here, we can definitely cover the weather for Election Day, and today is that day. We’ve said goodbye to the warm spell, and today will feature a seasonable chill in the air, along with a gusty breeze, but otherwise fair weather with no travel issues to get to the polling place if you are voting in person. Now that we have one week in the books for November, let’s review a little bit. For Boston, the average temperature for the month so far is 61.9, which puts them in first place for the warmest first 7 days of November on record. Spots 2 through 6 are 61.0 in 1994, 59.7 in 1990, 59.6 in 2015, 58.9 in 1975, and 58.8 in 1982. Ironically, ONLY 1975 held onto a warm pattern for the entire month, becoming the warmest November on record for Boston – so far unchallenged. All of the other years in spots 2 through 6 fell out of the top 10 warmest. What will happen this time? My guess is we won’t be solidifying the warmth because a wholesale pattern change is looming. In fact, it’s already starting. Stage one was our cold front sweeping across the region yesterday, although it was still a warm day, we did see the dew point drop and finally in the evening the cool air arrived. This is from a Canadian high pressure area which will build across the region providing seasonably cool air through Wednesday, which will be a day that features lighter wind than today. High pressure will then drift off the south and east by Thursday which will feature fair weather with milder air arriving. Meanwhile, Subtropical Storm Nicole continues to get itself organized to the east of the Bahamas and is expected to consolidate somewhat into a more defined tropical system that may attain hurricane status before reaching the coast of Florida early Thursday, first passing through the northern Bahamas Wednesday. The forecast track for Nicole takes it northward later this week, and while it transitions to a “regular” storm system, it will be interacting with a trough and frontal system approaching our area from the west, and is very likely going to give us a good slug of rainfall late Friday into Saturday. Right now, I continue to anticipate dry weather hanging on for the daylight hours of Veterans Day on Friday – good news for outdoor ceremonies and parades that will be taking place. But at night, expect a soaker along with a gusty wind due to the combined effort of those systems. I think things will be moving along quickly enough so that we see only a wet start to Saturday with rapid improvement from west to east as the cold front sweeps through and offshore. We may salvage from about midday on with dry weather, although it will be quite breezy and turning cooler after a very mild beginning to the day – the next stage of our pattern change.

TODAY: Sunshine – just a few passing midday and afternoon clouds possible. Highs 50-57. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain, heavy at times, and a chance of thunder, along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

New weather pattern – below normal temperatures. Looking for dry weather for much of the time, then a potential low pressure system bringing some precipitation near the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

Similar pattern, below normal temperatures, mainly dry weather, threat of one passing system with some precipitation mid to late period based on current projected timing of features. Always remember a forecast out beyond several days has a higher degree of potential error.

37 thoughts on “Tuesday November 8 2022 Forecast (6:21AM)”

  6. Just a gut feeling we could be done with seventy degree temps un less we are on the warm side of a powerful storm heading up to our west.

  7. Thanks TK
    I notice the wording precipitation in the 6-10 and 11-15 day outlook. First flakes of the season for the interior before Thanksgiving???

  11. Thanks TK.

    Pounding snow again out West today. I posted late on the last blog that Solitude, UT is opening Friday and it will be their earliest opening date since 2013.

    Alta has received 67″ of snow already on the season with another 1-2 feet expected today and tomorrow.

    https://www.alta.com/weather
    (scroll down for the webcams)

    Definitely a great start to the ski season in the West and snowpack is already running 300-400% above normal for this time of year.

  16. Still have shots at 70+, since many of our record highs are still in that territory, so we know it can happen well into late autumn – albeit rarely. But we can still break 70 on Saturday with early enough clearing. We’ll have a very high launch pad and while limited hours of “heating” before we start to advect cooler air in, with a launch pad of 60+, 70 is easily attainable. And then Sunday will be about 20 degrees cooler. 😉

      1. We’ll be lucky if we’re in the top 15 for warmest Novembers when this is over. Not even CLOSE to #1. Sitting at #1 7 days into the month is simply not an indicator of a warm month. As I posted in my discussion above, the top 6 warmest Novembers after 7 days all ended up outside the top 10 with the exception of 1975 (still the warmest on record for Boston). It won’t even be in the same ballpark in 2022. It wouldn’t even surprised me if we end up below normal when the month is over, based on the upcoming pattern.

        That said, we’ve hit 70+ in December before, so we can’t rule it out.

      1. Friends are in siesta key……as I look now, the worst of it seems to be going north of that location ?????

  19. Interesting…..

    Ryan Hanrahan
    @ryanhanrahan

    What does it say that @ericfisher and I are predicting the most snow for the season in southern New England in a 33 person weather geek contest?

    1. I just happened to be taking my daughter to the airport very, very early yesterday morning and got to watch the eclipse in progress. It was awesome !!

  24. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-1217A-NICOLE_timeseries.png

    I love this graph for many reasons. Its the EKG of Nicole.

    Focusing on the 2 individual graphs on the left …. If you match from the top 1 when the plane flew through the center (winds drop off and lowest pressure) to the bottom 1’s 850 mb temps, you can see a transition has occurred to something much more tropical as the warmest 850 mb temps correspond to the center (warm core)

    1. Reminds me of when I was in the hospital with a-fib.. HAHA!

      Those are neat to look at, yes. 🙂

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