Thursday November 10 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)

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DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Where there was frost, there’s now dew. A little sign of the current warm-up was apparent early this morning when most areas that were frosted over yesterday at dawn where covered with the liquid version of it – dew – this morning, as temperatures were considerably milder than 24 hours prior. We’re already feeling that warmer air moving in on the back side of high pressure, in contrast to yesterday morning’s calm cold, we have a gentle southerly breeze already blowing as I write this just after sunrise. Basically we’ve a very nice November day ahead today with lots of sun and mild air – many areas into the 60s for high temps. But we do have some unsettled weather looming, although it’s not going to be with us for very long. As we’ve been watching for several days, Nicole has made its way to and into Florida, reaching minimal hurricane status before landfall. This system will turn to the north, weaken, and become absorbed by a frontal boundary and larger scale mid latitude trough moving toward the US East Coast, and that conglomeration will impact our weather Friday into Saturday, but for a limited time. We will see lots more clouds during the day Friday, but most of the wet weather is going to wait until dark to arrive, with an initial batch of widespread showers to cross the region during the evening hours, bringing in relatively very high humidity for this time of year – a tropical feel and no surprise since that air will have made a journey from the tropics. The cold front will then sweep across the region Saturday morning with another batch of showers / downpours, maybe even some thunder, before it all exits to the east and that day ends windy, drier, and much cooler than it began. This sets the stage for a much more typical November chill as we finish the weekend and start next week. Guidance has still toyed with the idea of a storm nearby on Sunday but I still feel that most of this activity will be offshore that day, so I continue to lean dry vs. wet, but breezy and chilly. With high pressure off to the west and north we’ll continue to have breezy and chilly weather with dry conditions Monday as well.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY (VETERANS DAY): Increasing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Widespread showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point rising to near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-30 MPH, possibly stronger along the South Coast and in higher elevations.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunder along with areas of fog during the morning. Breaking clouds followed by clearing west to east during the afternoon. Highs 65-72 in the morning, then falling to the 50s by late-day. Dew point 60+ until midday then falling rapidly. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusts 20-30+ MPH, strongest coastal areas and higher elevations, shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Watching for a potential low pressure system to impact the region with some precipitation (probably rain, can’t rule out inland mix/snow) in the November 16-18 window. Medium range guidance has gotten a little more divergent on the timing and details of that in their runs, so just a very general outlook for now, to refine as time goes along. The take-away is below normal temperatures with an unsettled weather threat somewhere during the period and at least the possibility some see the first flakes of the season. Don’t draw any solid conclusions based on this just yet…

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

One more low pressure system should pass by during this period, probably mid period with brief warming but the overall pattern features near to below normal temperatures heading toward Thanksgiving.

31 thoughts on “Thursday November 10 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  4. Thanks TK.

    Last couple runs of the GFS have been focusing more on late next week for a potential winter storm. 6z GFS has a benchmark track for next Friday with accumulating snows away from the coast:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022111006&fh=207&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat&rh=2022111006&fh=210&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    Kuchera Snowmap:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2022111006&fh=219&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

    2. Awesome. That snow looks like the good stuff. Ie is looks like
      it has some water content to it. Of course, looks can sometimes
      be deceiving.

  8. Mostly annual reminder: Just because the pattern may favor early flakes, keep these things in mind…

    1) Some locations does not mean all locations.
    2) Some snow does not necessarily mean big snow.
    3) November flakes doesn’t mean it’s suddenly winter. It’s very much autumn. Winter arrives with the solstice on December 21. But even though we have a solid marking of its arrival, weather doesn’t work that way. 🙂

    Feel free to share these points. 😉

    1. Yes, indeedy.

      Not to mention, that ocean is unseasonably mild for this time of year.
      current temp 55.4
      Ave 50.58
      departure 4.82

      Any wind with a component off of that ocean will result in RAIN or Rapid change to RAIN even a fair distance inland no matter what the temperature was on onset.

        1. Killington looks to be in the jackpot area for this run anyway. Often times the GFS giveth and also taketh away.

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