Thursday November 17 2022 Forecast (6:07AM)

93 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

The weather pattern over the next several days will be fairly dry and chilly, dominated by an air flow out of Canada. Two disturbances can create a passing rain or snow shower during this time, the first one today, the second one on Sunday. The coldest day of the next 5 should be Monday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A passing rain or snow shower possible this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Maybe a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Medium range guidance remains inconsistent with systems and not reliable. Pattern supports dry weather and a temperature moderation early this period, a period of unsettled weather possible from late Thanksgiving (Nov 24) into Black Friday (Nov 25), then a drier and seasonable end to the period. But this is not a high confidence forecast for later in that period, so watch for updates.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but my overall idea is for the best shot of unsettled weather to be late November 27 and November 28.

93 thoughts on “Thursday November 17 2022 Forecast (6:07AM)”

  2. Completely different solutions between GFS & ECMWF regarding Thanksgiving Weekend. Too funny, but in an amusing way, not an unexpected way. You know what we always say about guidance … especially beyond day 4. Funny how that gets proven true over, and over…and over……… and over………………………….

    Well, GFS upgrade is November 29. We’ll see what happens with that model after that.

      2. 6z GFS upgraded version is a bit farther north with the low, a lot wetter, but actually a tad cooler with the surface temperatures next Saturday with the storm.

    2. On our grade level floor, we had a copier last year. It had some issues, but overall it was pretty reliable.

      They upgraded …… to something that was supposed to be better !

      The new one is ALWAYS broken !!!!!!

      The current GFS seems decent to me. They should NOT upgrade !

      🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. gfs seems to do ok in the mid-latitudes but a headache for the tropics but so was the EURo this year which in my opionion has decreased in accuracy since 2017/2018

  6. https://photos.app.goo.gl/Zajsaf9xCB5PrzbJ8

    Friend of mine sent me a message a little while ago saying something to the effect of “So I heard they are forecasting a major snow storm next weekend.” After that they showed me this tweet from a non meteorologist. I try to ignore this stuff but when you get bombarded with messages and questions prompted by irresponsible posts like this it is very difficult to just ignore it.

    Talking about it like it is pretty much locked in and even going into detail with rain versus snow for a system that won’t even be formed for several days if it ever does…

    But going back to the person who messaged me they were concluding major snowstorm including their area and they live near the south coast of New England. So not only do you have the problem of irresponsible posting but you still have a lot of people who cannot interpret information no matter what the source. To me this is a combination of both irresponsibility and TMI.

    I don’t think this problem is going away anytime soon. 🙁 It makes it so hard for us legit scientists.

    I saw similar things on social media all through the pandemic where everybody became an expert…… Big downside of the ease of information/communication. I continue to hope that the positives outweigh the negatives going forward.

    1. Thankfully, we have you and this blog. We may have our wishes, but we do understand. Many thanks for what you do.

      1. Definitely know everybody here understands this.. 🙂

        The big problem is for every one person here there are hundreds floating around online perpetuating the bad information. A lot of these people know better too and they do it for reaction. But I guess we could say that about any topic that makes news anyway…

        2. Difficulty is that there have been instances where gfs has seen an event. Twice last summer Eric said it “sniffed” the event out days before. Dave E uses it for his planting. Although I absolutely know you cannot count on long range, It seems it might be prudent to keep in the back of your mind.

  7. Good morning TK and Thank you.
    6z Gfs has the storm back, albeit not a big snow producer for sne. But a storm is there and rather potent, at that.

    Curios to see how this evolves.
    Will it be real or a big no show???

    Not much shaking in Buffalo yet.
    I am wondering if this big lake effect snow will be a big hype job. Models all still show it happening, so we shall see.
    In any case, an historic event now seems unlikely. Time will tell.

    1. I am still definitely not going to hope for any winter-like storms that weekend.

      We have an outdoor ceremony in Woburn and my son’s choral group is singing at it. And then after that I am heading to Worcester to see TSO. 🙂

    1. Hometown of Lucille Ball. Big mural of her on the side of a building downtown, not far from the Lucille Ball/Desi Arnaz museum. Was out there a few summers ago. My better half has family out there.

      2. My parents spent time with Lucy there years ago when visiting Rudy Vallee. The pair was appearing in some performance but I cannot recall which one

  14. I opine…

    GFS: OTL, confused on what energy to play with.
    GEM: Better idea, but not “there”.
    ECMWF: waiting for run…..

    1. As mentioned above, 12z GFS upgrade is farther south with a light to perhaps moderate snow across southern NE.

      12z GFS Ensemble has the vast majority of the members with little to now snow (and one member that goes off the deep end).

  27. 12z Euro EPS looks much better than the operational run if you are looking for a winter storm threat next weekend. Looks like a mean not too far SE of the benchmark.

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_2022_11/Nov17_12zEPS210.png.92649bbed10cf4ae653b55c83d14ce18.png

    This would imply a colder solution for SNE. This also looks more in line with the upgraded 12z GFS solution as SAK described it above.

    Obviously way too early to be getting into the details but the pattern could certainly support something around this timeframe.

  28. Browns Bills game moved to Detroit Sunday due to the snow. Buffalo will play in Detroit on Sunday and then again on Thanksgiving Day

    2. A shame the bills can’t play one at home but a thanksgiving day game would be too difficult to move. Sure seems like the best plan. Thank you, JJ

  30. Thanks Mark for all of the links. They are fun to check.

    I saved the webcams to my Home Screen. They are lots of fun too

  31. 18z GFS running and already looks WAY different than the previous run for around the middle of next week.

  32. One example of the inconsistency coming from the GFS model…

    From 12z run, Thanksgiving forecast high temp for Boston, about 35F.
    From 18z run, Thanksgiving forecast high temp for Boston, about 50F.

  33. Yup, completely different solution on the storm system from 18z GFS operational run. 🙂 Ironically it kind of matches my ideas on the blog forecast today.

    Does that mean it’s going to be right? Not necessarily. As indicated by my discussion, it’s not a high confidence forecast. There are alot of sources talking in absolutes out there – not wise to do when you have so much inconsistency and disagreement across your forecasting tools. Learned that one 30 years ago and haven’t forgotten it. 🙂

        1. I thought it was a given but wasn’t sure how to read the number of posts.

          Do you think there might be an event or will it go poof?

    1. We had 30 in Framingham at least once not long ago. It was the one my son in law had to climb out the window because the doors were blocked enough we could not push them out

  36. Not a flake of snow yet in Buffalo but multiple lightning strikes seen just south of the City per Chris Bruin of TWC.

    Going to come in there like a wall very shortly.

  39. Eric Fisher going with 30-40 inches of snow for the winter.
    Some other points from the outlook
    – Favoring biggest cold shots up front (next month or so)
    – Should have several snow chances into December
    – Backing off somewhat later in Jan-Feb
    – More of a “front loaded” feel

    1. I was reading his and JR’s.

      One debate going through my head is how reliable analog years are, if one believes, as I do, that there’s more heat in the system now then there was back in the analog years. That’s one heck of a variable to have different and then, how does that affect everything ??

      1. This is not to mean I think less snow than in past analog years. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. The ocean is so warm off the northeast coast. I think because of it, the right mixture of arctic air, a disturbance and a warmer ocean could yield a huge winter storm which could cause much more snow for the season than the outlooks are predicting.

        1. Typing the same time. You have an amazing ability to read my mind. Warning….it is scary in there.

          Seriously, though. Thank you.

      2. If I understand, the analog years include more than the last 30 years so would also include more cold????? So being warmer now, less snow? That last sentence was typed with my eyes closed as it was an off the top of my head guess

  40. Here’s the full write up from Eric Fisher on his winter forecast:

    https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/winter-weather-forecast-outlook-snow-predictions-boston-massachusetts-2022-2023-wbz-tv/

    It does seem to be very analog driven, comparing the current conditions to the those that were in place in 2020, and looking back at the below normal snow winters that occurred in the few other triple La Niña years that we have had.

    It’s also a very text book La Niña forecast. Big question though is if the La Niña actually holds through the winter or it trends weaker. That could have implications for the second half of the winter.

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