Saturday November 19 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)

52 Comments

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

As we head into the final weekend before Thanksgiving, again there are no big changes to make to the ongoing outlook for the coming few days which will feature chilly and mainly dry weather. The only real chance of any precipitation is a few showers of precipitation (mix, graupel, or snow) early Sunday and again a few snow showers in isolated areas in the afternoon as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves in, and again a few snow flurries Tuesday as a weak disturbances goes quickly through the region. Otherwise it’s a general west to northwest wind flow from Canada for the duration with fair weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A pre-dawn snow shower possible. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few showers of rain (South Coast) and graupel/snow (elsewhere) early, and a chance of a passing snow shower in the afternoon. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 16-23. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A chance of a passing snow flurry. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Current outlook is for rain-free but more clouds and seasonably cool for Thanksgiving on November 24 as high pressure shifts offshore, then a chance of a rain event as a stronger low pressure area travels west and northwest of our region on “Black Friday” November 25. Trend for the rest of this period is drying out Saturday November 26 but not too chilly yet, then colder for November 27, and still watching for a system to possibly bring mix/rain for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Variable temperatures averaging near to below normal for this period. Continued inconsistency in medium range guidance but not expecting any major storms in this time period.

52 thoughts on “Saturday November 19 2022 Forecast (7:34AM)”

  2. Thanks TK.

    TK – Can you answer my question to you that I posted this morning (7:26) regarding SClarke’s lake effect snow question that you responded to? At your convenience of course. Thanks.

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Buffalo received some more snow overnight and will get some more tonight.

    quite an event for sure.

    Orchard park had 65 inches as of 11pn last night. Don’t know current figure.

    1. Mark…or anyone familiar with NY…I notice cars have their hazard lights on. I have not seen that for years when my dad taught us to do the same. Is this something NY transportation encourages or just smart drivers? I also noriced the sign flashing a commercial vehicle ban

      1. Vicki, I believe it is the law in most places that you need to have your hazard lights on when you are traveling on an interstate at less than 40 mph

    2. cbs but not the meterologists. They can still post as they want. I find alot of this twitter nonsense to be stupid.

    1. Notice the 4 buffalo totals. Pretty interesting!

      …Erie County…

      Buffalo Airport 30.2 in 0700 AM 11/19 Official NWS
      1 S Buffalo 26.0 in 0800 AM 11/19 Public
      1 ENE Buffalo 22.0 in 0900 AM 11/19 Amateur Radio
      Buffalo 3.9 N 7.5 in 0800 AM 11/19 COCORAHS

      1. Less little trouble with roof collapses in 2015. It was generally all fluff. None of it was wet, even at the coast, even at the Cape. All fluff for the big events. One event had some mix/rain in later February but that was not one of the “big four” that preceded it. And it never really rained after that. It all dried up (sublimated). The easiest we’ve ever had it given how much snow fell, in a relative sense. Had we had that much snow with some of it being wetter storms, oh boy…

        Of course, the lack of moisture benefit from that snow was a factor in leading to the 2016 drought just a year later.

  18. It goes immediately from being fascinated by an event on this scale to feeling heartsick for the folks who are there. So very sad

    1. I can only imagine what early Buffalo settlers thought when they first encountered these insane snows! Starvations and deaths must have been quite prevalent. I heard on the radio this morning that the previous storm recorded double digit deaths. I believe it was 13 or 14?

        1. There was a typo in the email which sent this to moderation (I fixed it but just check your email line the next time you comment to make sure the extraneous character is not still there.) 🙂

            1. At my age, I never type the keys I intend to type. More so on mobile but it happens on my desk top keyboard as well. 🙂

    1. Interesting question.

      I’m no expert, but my guess is that the important thing is the length of the lake in the direction that the cold wind typically blows. Lake Champlain is about 125 miles north-to-south and only about 14 miles east-to-west. Lakes Ontario and Erie are oriented the other way.

  22. Even if Buffalo and the surrounding area doesn’t see another flake for the rest of the year (yeah right) they certainly won’t see bare ground again in 2022. If that’s not a sure bet, I don’t know what is.

    I would also say back to remote learning for schools and colleges until further notice. 🙁

  23. Logan finally received its first frost this morning at 31F. I bet it gets its first freeze (28F) tonight or certainly tomorrow night.

    1. They’ll drop low enough tonight easily I do believe.
      Monday night may not get as cold because of “warm air” (relatively) advection and more clouds. Don’t let “warm air” fool you though, it will still be chilly and gusty. 🙂

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