Sunday November 20 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

The tweaking process is always ongoing when updating a forecast, but there won’t be many tweaks made to the first 5 days covered on this blog today. We’re still looking at mainly dry, chilly weather with a gusty breeze today into the early part of the week but the exceptions are the potential for a few snow showers (rain or snow showers South Coast) reaching the region via the Great Lakes this afternoon / early evening, and maybe a quick passing snow shower early Tuesday favoring southern NH and northern MA with a disturbance passing quickly through the region. Moderation in temperature is still expected heading into midweek as high pressure which was to the west shifts more to our south, but another high to the north will send a frontal boundary quietly through the region later Wednesday or Thursday and shifts the air flow back to northerly, putting the brakes on any significantly milder push of air, but at least we don’t seem to be looking at anything in the way of a really cold Thanksgiving either – and it should remain dry despite increasing clouds as the next low pressure system will be approaching, but not quite here yet. So the idea is generally good weather is ours for being out and about leading up to the holiday…

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A few possible showers of rain/mix South Coast and graupel and/or snow elsewhere, mainly during the afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25.Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A quick passing snow shower possible favoring southern NH and northern MA. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-46. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially morning.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Despite continued guidance inconsistencies and disagreements I stick to the same idea today of a Black Friday (Nov 25) rain event and a drier weekend, not-too-chilly but breezy Saturday (Nov 26) and somewhat colder Sunday (Nov 27). Watching for a low pressure system with a mix/rain chance and brief moderation in temperature – based on expected track this far out – for Monday Nov 28 followed by a return to dry and seasonably chilly weather for Tuesday Nov 29. I realize this is a little detailed for a 6-10 day forecast and tweaks / changes are certainly possible. Use as a guide only for now.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

No big changes to the overall pattern outlook heading into early December with variable – near to slightly below normal – temperatures for the period. No solid indications of any major storms but with several disturbances in the pipeline, always have to watch for something to develop a bit more.

52 thoughts on “Sunday November 20 2022 Forecast (7:18AM)”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Anybody heading to Gillette today? SAK? πŸ˜‰

    According to Jacob, snow on the backside of the Friday event. Is that for most of us?

    1. I believe my brother is (unless he sold the tickets this time). I guess I could ask him. We were just texting about Thanksgiving dinner… haha!

    2. He was just reacting to the Euro model which is more aggressive with wrap-around snow (still west and north of Boston area) because it’s probably over-amplifying the system (refer to JMA’s often-made comments about that model, which I agree with). Each piece of guidance has been struggling with how to resolve that system for days now, based on each model’s set of biases and “shortcomings”. This is actually a great example of something I mention here often. You can’t really just lock into any one solution of one model beyond a few days out and start perpetuating it like it’s a lock. Obviously, most mets never do that, but social media is populated by weather pages that DO that, and sadly the downside of that format is that too many people get it, believe it, and spread it. This is why it can frustrate me so easily and so often. I ignore that to the best of my ability but when you get bombarded with questions spurred by that information, you need to address them.

      Anyway there’s the long answer to the short question you asked. No fault of Jacob. If he buys into the Euro that’s his opinion. I just don’t buy into that solution myself right now. If I had to lean toward anything, model-wise, it’s a cross between the GEM & GFS latest runs.

      1. Thanks TK. As I’ve mentioned here, I’m just not into these young tv mets. Thankfully we do have Eric and JR. πŸ™‚

        1. Well, as always you are entitled to your opinion, and while I’m not as into the style used on air these days, the fact is that the previous generation will move along and retire, and there are at least thankfully more to take their places. They are dedicated to the career and all want to do the best they can, so I support that, even if I’m not “into” the current style of broadcasting in general.

      2. Did Jacob state definitely or there is a possibility. Not much in twitter from our Mets and hopefully it is just the normal weekend silence.

    1. Whatever happened to New England born mets? Since she will be working weekends, has Jaisol left? Or just a new addition to their weather team?

      1. There are plenty of New England born mets, but that’s not how the market works. Not as many people end up staying where they were born. If you want to get into the business badly enough, you will go to the job, not wait for the job to come to where you live. It may never happen.

  2. The 00z GFS separated the 2 jet streams, cutting off a southwest us low and in essence creating a non event Friday. 12z phases the 2 jet streams (complete 180) and now will have a Friday system.

      1. Now all the gfs has to do is decide which one (00z vs 12z) is going to happen.

        Big impact for coast, huge astronomical high tides Fri-Mon.

  3. GFS Ensemble members are extremely variable and the mean does not look anything like the operational run.

    Won’t surprise me if the 18z op run looks worlds different than the 12z.

  4. One thing I will say is the Thursday & Friday forecast is looking a lot different than I read on the NWS discussion for those 2 days a few days ago, when they were talking about the possibility of sub-freezing temps all day for Thanksgiving and a big “front end thump” (I freaking hate that phrase) of snow on Black Friday.

    In defense of NWS, it was in a discussion, not one of their public forecasts, and they were just discussing possibilities, not talking in absolutes.

      1. In the discussion that’s absolutely where it belongs. Because looking at the available guidance back then you could have made a case for a really cold Thanksgiving Day and a wintry start to the storm threat that follows.

        The caution lies in letting that stuff out in forecast form too soon, when the confidence is simply not there or it’s just too far in the future. They did very well with that.

        I know the discussions are open to being seen by the public too, but again we’re back to “using good judgement” if you read those products. πŸ™‚

  5. I never made an “official” announcement about the snowfall contest, but you all basically know the drill anyway. We will do it, obviously, we will use Boston, Worcester, Providence, and Hartford as general representations for the WHW forecast area and dependable climate info of course.

    I am about to create a tab on the blog menu for this contest. Existing guesses will be moved to that tab by myself or Vicki (who graciously volunteers to manage the guesses – thanks Vicki!) for this fun contest.

    Let’s make the deadline for guesses November 30. Any snow that has fallen before that obviously counts, and if for some reason you want to revise your original guesses I will definitely allow that, as long as fall final guesses are in by 11:59:59 on November 30. πŸ™‚

    Example: If we suddenly get a 77 inch ocean effect snowfall event and your guess was 50, you might wanna update it. πŸ˜‰ You know I was going there didn’t you?

    Let me see if WP lets me create that without being cranky.

    1. UPDATE: The page has been created and you should be able to comment there if you want to add your guesses directly.

      Follow this format…

      Boston: xx.x
      Worcester: yy.y
      Providence: zz.z
      Hartford: qq.q

      Letters of course represent your guesses to the nearest 10th of an inch. If you want to guess whole inches that’s fine. It’s just an implied .0 is your decimal for nearest 10th.

  6. Thanks TK.

    12z GGEM, 12z Euro, and 12z GFS now all showing a sub 970 mb bomb over SNE for next weekend’s storm. Heavy rain and wind with possible coastal impacts. Snow is confined to northern VT, NH and Maine for the most part. None of the models depicting enough cold air for a lot of snow, even well NW/inland of the storm track.

    12z Euro for Saturday 7AM:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&rh=2022112012&fh=144

    12z GGEM for Saturday 7AM:

    https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&rh=2022112012&fh=144

  7. Thanks, TK:

    Winds certainly have a winter bite today.
    Wired up the holiday lights yesterday. Lights always go on after church on the First Sunday of Advent which is next weekend.

    World Cup Qatar 2022 has started with a 2-nil Ecuador win over host Qatar. I always enjoy and watch World Cup soccer. I attended all six games at Foxboro Stadium when the USA hosted the tournament in 1994.

    Tom, you’ll appreciate this: I have planned my lessons this week (we only have two days) around the World Cup and have purchased Telemundo for the soccer games in Spanish for my large screen, classroom TV! πŸ™‚ (Do you think this is the first time I’ve taught during the World Cup????) Hahahahaha! πŸ™‚

    At least for the first two weeks, the games are on at 5 am, 8 am, 11 am and 2 pm with the nine-hour time difference.

    The USA played tomorrow against Wales at 2 pm.

    Speaking of sports, The Bruins and Celtics continue to be the best teams in their respective leagues. They are certainly fun to watch right now!

    Enjoy a nice, pre-holiday week, everyone!

    1. Loving the wind today (because I’m weird) but I did postpone my planned Pats-listening final yard cleanup mow & leaf pickup of the season until the next couple mornings (I’m off work for the remainder of the month so that opens up the schedule to do such a thing). I think it’s time for a trip to the farm for one last pre-Thanksgiving round of apple cider donuts for this evening. πŸ™‚

      Having fun watching the sports teams. Bruins of course are my favorite (over any other team in our market). One more home win will break an NHL record for the most consecutive home wins. We won’t know until they play Carolina on Friday afternoon (day after Thanksgiving). Before that they visit Tampa Bay Lightning Monday and Florida Panthers Wednesday, road games that won’t factor in the record. Either way, impressive team. They’ll lose some games, yes, but the potential is definitely there to have one of the highest point totals we have seen with the current 82 game schedule. We’ll see how the season plays out. It’ll be fun to follow.

    2. Good job getting lights out. We did not get lights up yesterday and sure won’t today. Thanks for the reminder to order advent candles. Our grands get advent calendars each year as fo my kids. I get one for myself that tell the story of the Babe’s birth. I got the best one ever this year from LovePop. It’s a box of 25 cards, each telling a bit of the story. Inside is a little figure that you pop up. By Christmas you have a full Manger. I plan to read to all six grands daily.

  8. Time for the reminder that the energy for the “storm threat” late this coming week is somewhere way up in the northern Pacific right now and any model outcome is to be taken very lightly until this area is over North America in 2 days.

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