Tuesday November 22 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Clear sailing weather-wise as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday with high pressure in control of the weather. We are still chilly, but we do see moderation in temperature today and Wednesday ahead of a cold front that will quietly slide through Wednesday evening and drop the temperature modestly for Thanksgiving Day, while high pressure to the south gives way to one in eastern Canada. Clouds will start to advance before the holiday ends ahead of the next low pressure system. You all know the tale of the inconsistent models for days on end leading to a wild array of social media posts about potentials and all of that. Here, my approach is different as you know, avoiding the hype, sticking to what I can tell you and qualifying the possibilities. Seems the idea of some type of rain event on Black Friday will indeed be the case, but the system will not be all that strong, and it does not look like a solidly rainy day, just a few periods of rain or rain showers. The system then moves along and high pressure provides nice weather for Saturday.

TODAY: Sunny then patchy clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind NW-W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Patchy clouds then clear. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs 42-49. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain and areas of fog. Highs 46-53. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

Watching the period November 27-28 for a probable rain (maybe brief higher elevation mix) event in which the timing needs to be nailed down. Generally quiet and seasonable weather to follow with a westerly flow to end November then potential unsettled weather to open December.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)

Variable temperatures early December averaging somewhat close to normal with a couple disturbances to bring brief and mostly minor precipitation threats as the pattern doesn’t look like it will support any major storminess.

27 thoughts on “Tuesday November 22 2022 Forecast (7:26AM)”

  1. Just a quick wrap-up on the whole model beyond 4 days thing again, and then I’ll let it go (for a while anyway).

    I probably spent an hour’s time answering questions about potential winter storms for Thanksgiving weekend based on a total of about 5 model runs, all of them well in advance, none of them consistent with past or future runs, or with other models at the same time. These were spurred by irresponsible social media posts, of course. There is a mindset among some people that as soon as a frozen precipitation of some kind shows up anywhere on a model run days in advance that somehow we’re going to find a way to be hit by the worst of it, and also that instead of it being November (or even October) it’s suddenly “winter”. Does anybody actually pay attention to the calendar anymore? We do here, but you know what I mean.

    Already seen one post somewhere saying (after the guidance backed off the storm threat they wanted to be true) “this winter sucks!” ……… ummmm…. These folks are beyond help now. 😉

    Carry on!

    1. I’ve learned to block folks who get silly over weather and especially anyone who faults meteorologists . I never see any negative weather posts on twitter and don’t discuss weather on FB.

      It seems the models do fairly well recognizing an event many days out but of course not being able to fine tune it. Those who follow models see it and get excited which I sure understand….even knowing it will change several times over before all is said and done. We know it saw this one and I admit to enjoying watching and waiting even knowing the final outcome may be different.

      1. There is a high to the north on that run. It’s in southeastern Canada extending back, narrowly, to Quebec. IF that run was somehow correct, it would easily snow here. But, it’s beyond 4 days. Don’t trust it.

  2. Thanks TK.

    I heard on Ch. 5 newscast that Dr. Judah Cohen predicted 48” for Boston this upcoming winter, which is average (49.2”). Fine with me.

    Too bad I missed seeing him and Harvey. Oh well.

  3. Someone mentioned the possibility that we may at some point no longer change our clocks and that this would mean sunrise closer to 8am than 7am in December. While this is true, it obviously won’t impact the total number of daylight hours. We would just have less daylight in the morning and more in the afternoon.

    My point, however, was that places much further north – like the Netherlands (same latitude as Labrador) and certainly Scandinavia have significantly less daylight than we do; both in the morning and afternoon: Several hours less. It’s really dark there. And you rarely have sunny days like we do during winter; like today, for instance. So when it’s light out you barely sense it sometimes.

    1. Max often mentioned this from the time his family lives in Sweden. He said he’d be out playing in the light until late at night and then at school in the dark

  4. It’s a lovely autumn afternoon. I met some friends at Sutton Common and we stood out and chatted for close to an hour. Uncharacteristically, there wasn’t any wind

  5. Very rare occurrence for 2022: Every tropical basin will come in with below average ACE for the year. That hardly ever happens.

    ACE forecast for the Atlantic was about 150% of normal.
    Looks like the final will be about 78% or about half of what was forecast.

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