DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)
High pressure provides nice weather on this day before Thanksgiving, so there will be no weather-related problems for travel into, out of, and around the region based on the weather here. The air will be milder today then we have been the previous couple days. A weak cold front will slide through the region this evening, barely noticeable, but it will knock the temperature down a little bit for the holiday tomorrow as we get our air from eastern Canada with a second high pressure area up that way. High pressure than slides to the east of us and a trough and frontal system progress eastward into and across the region during Friday. This system will bring with it some rain shower activity, primarily Friday midday to early evening from west to east – generally a minor impact for those out and about visiting and shopping. This moves along and high pressure pokes in to give us a really nice Saturday. A day once prematurely hyped by some social media to be carrying a major winter storm threat will turn out to be fair and pleasantly mild for November with high temperatures generally over 50 for the region. Sunday’s weather remains a little bit in question at this particular time. While not shown by models, I’ve been of the belief that the energy for the next unsettled weather threat will be slower to arrive and that we have the opportunity to sneak a lot of Sunday’s daylight in with dry weather as well. I’m going to remain cautiously optimistic about this, forecasting sun to start, a cloud-up to follow, and wet weather holding off til day’s end or nighttime.
TODAY: Patchy clouds through midday then a sunnier finish. Highs 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: A few clouds move through. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun, filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S under 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Rain showers likely from west to east midday on. Highs 46-53. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)
November 28 may start grey with some lingering rain or rain showers, followed by drier, windy weather, starting mild then turning much cooler. Current expectations are for high pressure to bring dry weather with near to above normal temperatures for the final 2 days of November with a west southwesterly air flow aloft keeping the colder air off to the west and north of our region. A fast-moving weather system may bring some unsettled weather in the December 1-2 time frame, but with a mild regime at that time odds would favor liquid precipitation over frozen.
DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)
Leaning toward a fairly quiet and mild pattern right now for early December. May get a brief colder shot somewhere in this time frame with a minor precipitation event accompanying it. If you read my winter outlook posted yesterday this pattern would not reflect my expectations for the month in general though, so assuming I’m right – don’t get used to mild weather.