Wednesday November 23 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

High pressure provides nice weather on this day before Thanksgiving, so there will be no weather-related problems for travel into, out of, and around the region based on the weather here. The air will be milder today then we have been the previous couple days. A weak cold front will slide through the region this evening, barely noticeable, but it will knock the temperature down a little bit for the holiday tomorrow as we get our air from eastern Canada with a second high pressure area up that way. High pressure than slides to the east of us and a trough and frontal system progress eastward into and across the region during Friday. This system will bring with it some rain shower activity, primarily Friday midday to early evening from west to east – generally a minor impact for those out and about visiting and shopping. This moves along and high pressure pokes in to give us a really nice Saturday. A day once prematurely hyped by some social media to be carrying a major winter storm threat will turn out to be fair and pleasantly mild for November with high temperatures generally over 50 for the region. Sunday’s weather remains a little bit in question at this particular time. While not shown by models, I’ve been of the belief that the energy for the next unsettled weather threat will be slower to arrive and that we have the opportunity to sneak a lot of Sunday’s daylight in with dry weather as well. I’m going to remain cautiously optimistic about this, forecasting sun to start, a cloud-up to follow, and wet weather holding off til day’s end or nighttime.

TODAY: Patchy clouds through midday then a sunnier finish. Highs 46-53. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: A few clouds move through. Lows 25-32. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING): Sun, filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Early sun, then becoming cloudy. Rain showers likely from west to east midday on. Highs 46-53. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then clearing. Lows 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 49-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

November 28 may start grey with some lingering rain or rain showers, followed by drier, windy weather, starting mild then turning much cooler. Current expectations are for high pressure to bring dry weather with near to above normal temperatures for the final 2 days of November with a west southwesterly air flow aloft keeping the colder air off to the west and north of our region. A fast-moving weather system may bring some unsettled weather in the December 1-2 time frame, but with a mild regime at that time odds would favor liquid precipitation over frozen.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 3-7)

Leaning toward a fairly quiet and mild pattern right now for early December. May get a brief colder shot somewhere in this time frame with a minor precipitation event accompanying it. If you read my winter outlook posted yesterday this pattern would not reflect my expectations for the month in general though, so assuming I’m right – don’t get used to mild weather.

38 thoughts on “Wednesday November 23 2022 Forecast (7:42AM)”

  1. A little earlier than I usually get this done but here is my crack at this winter forecast. I did ok last season but totally botched this summer’s hurricane season prediction as I leaned towards what the models were saying instead of the handful of analogs that were saying not to forecast active/hyper active season. https://merrimackvalleyweather796095653.wordpress.com/seasonal-outlooks/
    1. Weakening La-Nina
    2. Strong -IOD (one of the strongest)
    3. SSTs are favorable for cross-polar flow.
    4. There are warm SSTS off the coast of NA but these are cooling at the moment.

    Excuse any spelling mistakes, I been sorting through a massive number of samples this past week and a half.

  2. Thanks TK.

    Back in my day, school dismissal on the day before Thanksgiving was straight up at noon.

    I don’t recall ever getting out of school prior to noon. It was either noon or 1:00 pm or thereabouts. πŸ˜‰

  3. Hello TK, I enjoy reading your blog every day. I have a question about Woburn weather on Friday. I am the person who puts out several hundred scarves on the fence at First Church every year. I try to hang them on days with no precipitation 3-4 days in a row. Friday will be day 4. Do you think I will need to cover them with plastic on Friday or will they be ok? Thank you.

    1. Hi Linda! Thank you!
      Note: You can use your full name if you want to, but it’s not required. The only thing I need is for you to use the same email and same username you choose each time, or it will go into moderation. WordPress is rather picky about that, even if it’s the same email and 1 character is different on your name, it would flag it for moderation. So if you want to change it to anything else (Linda C, a nickname, whatever you like) just let me know.

      As far as your question: I think we’re dry up until noon in the Woburn area, then we’re open to periods of rain showers at any point thereafter, so I would have the plastic ready if you plan to have them out in the afternoon. Thank you for what you do!

  4. Thanks Matt for your thoughts on winter!
    Thanks SAK for your weekend update!

    I just got inside from a few hours of outside decorating – no actual Christmas decorations yet (we start that the day after Thanksgiving). Always have everything done – one way or another – to go full lights on December 1. πŸ™‚ This time I’m working with the inconvenience of a pretty nasty head cold (no covid after several tests to make sure). I think it peaked out this morning and I am feeling that corner-turn taking place now. I can live with that. πŸ™‚

    I’ll take a look at newer guidance in a bit but I don’t think I’d be changing much of what I wrote today.

  5. Philip.. Regarding schools, in my city we usually had 11:30 dismissal for high school, noon for middle school, and 12:30 for elementary on early release days. Once in a while they’d push that earlier by 1/2 hour to 11:00, 11:30, and 12:00. I think the day before Thanksgiving was one of those times, the aim being to allow as much time as possible for people who were traveling without missing an extra school day.

  6. Thanks, TK!

    I/we enjoyed a full day off today.

    Up early tomorrow to announce the Middleborough v. Carver annual Thanksgiving rivalry game. Kickoff is at 10 am.

    Tomorrow is the 30th game between the two schools. Unlike many towns, Middleborough has switched its Turkey Day rivals throughout the years. Middleborough High has played on Thanksgiving morning nearly every year since 1908.

    My alma mater, the Mansfield Hornets, play at Foxborough for the Hockomock League championship. It is the 91st Game.

    Love the tradition and rivalries!

    A blessed, special and Happy Thanksgiving to all in the WHW family!

    1. Woburn @ Winchester tomorrow morning. πŸ™‚

      This rivalry is the 4th oldest in the state (IIRC). Either way it goes way back.

      For all of my years it was Woburn at home on even years and on the road in Winchester on odd years. Then there was a pandemic. Because of the way things worked out, they ended up scheduling the “2020” Thanksgiving game to be played during the make-up football season they had in spring 2021, so our Thanksgiving game was on April 17, but despite it being our turn to host, because of a schedule conflict with the field, the game had to be in Winchester. Last year the game was selected to be one of those played at Fenway, but it was considered a home game for Woburn, so this year it’s Winchester’s turn to host, in essence reversing the odd/even pattern that existed for years.

      Woburn only lost once on the road this season, and it was that playoff game to a very speedy Marshfield team. I do not expect them to lose the Thanksgiving game tomorrow. But we will see. This is why they play the games!

  7. Here is why I still kind of lean toward Monday AM being wet.
    Recently in a similar pattern we saw guidance struggling with what energy to do what with, and I think we have a case of that again. It’s pretty obvious that the lead energy that at one point was modeled to phase with t he second area to make the big storm over the weekend is going to be very progressive in the northern stream, leaving a second trough back to the southwest, Texas to Lower Miss Valley. Most of the guidance has been sending this thing quickly northeastward, opening it up and as a result bringing rain in here earlier on Sunday, but over the last couple to few runs I have noticed this slight trend… A slight slowing of the energy, very slowly opening it up more slowly which changes the timing by several hours, but I think it may be overdeveloping this area and missing on developing yet another follow up short wave coming along behind it. It is this final short wave that I think may deliver our area the most rain of the two. Result: It clouds up Sunday but doesn’t rain until evening and then doesn’t rain all that much before the first short exits. The second one then comes along Monday AM and works on a frontal boundary sitting near us, giving a period of rain that morning, before things finally pull off to the east and we dry out Monday PM setting up 2 nice days to end the month.

    It will be interesting to track this…

  8. Watertown and Belmont play their 100th thanksgiving game at Fenway tonight. I sure wish I could find a place to watch. I went to nearly every game in my younger days

      1. Thank you for sending the link in messenger, TK. I would have missed the end. It was exciting to see the rivalry my brother and I grew up with …our mom too

        1. Wish it turned out better for Belmont, but I’m glad you got to see at least a little bit.

          Most of these games are live streamed now, even some of the regular season games.Something to keep in mind for next season. πŸ™‚

  9. TK – Hope you turn-the-corner very soon. It’s no fun being sick for Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays. I had that happen a couple times as a kid. If I recall though, it didn’t affect my appetite. πŸ™‚

    Hope you received your flu and Covid shots by now. Get well soon! πŸ™‚

    1. Got both shots. This is indeed just an “ordinary” virus. Not Covid, not RSV, not flu. My fever peaked at 100.0 twice. I’m turning the corner now. πŸ™‚

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