7:46PM
1st, a breakdown of how weather systems impact southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI), and 2nd, a detailed forecast, period by period (nights & days) for the next several days.
Discussion…
Tonight & early Saturday… Moisture moving in on a southerly wind will bring plenty of clouds and maybe a few areas of drizzle.
Saturday midday & afternoon… A slice of early summer-feeling weather with lots of sun and warm air.
Saturday night… Clouds return from the west and a weakening area of showers moves through from a cold front that barely makes it across the region before stopping just offshore.
Sunday… The front sitting just offshore will hold clouds in with some occasional light rain or drizzle possible, but no significant rain is expected during the day.
Sunday night & Monday… Developing and deepening low pressure to the south, moving up along the front, takes a left turn into the NY/NJ area, sending a slug of heavy rain toward the area. My concern is that the axis of heaviest precipitation may remain west of much of the forecast area, at least eastern sections. A split may even occur where heavier rain goes both east and west of the Boston area. Therefore, I am going to remain conservative on my rainfall forecast at this point. A good round number guess for rain amounts will be 1/2 to 1 inch for eastern areas and 1 to 2 inches with locally heavier toward the west, with the bigger amounts of 2+ inches being further to the west (Worcester Hills westward). This is still uncertain so please check back for updates. A dry slot working into the storm as it spins over NY State later Monday should shut off any significant rain in the eastern portion of southern New England.
Tuesday & Wednesday… Low pressure lingering over the Northeast will produce scattered showers as the air is unstable.
Thursday & Friday… Uncertain, low pressure trough may keep it somewhat unsettled.
Forecast…
TONIGHT: Clouds increasing southwest to northeast. Low 53-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy drizzle through mid morning, then turning sunny midday well into afternoon before more clouds approach from the W late afternoon hours. High 74-79. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Scattered showers moving in west to east by late night. Temperature cooling through the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to N.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain and drizzle. Temperature cooling through the 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: AM rain & wind / PM few showers. Low 44. High 54.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight risk of showers. Low 43. High 56.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of showers. Low 44. High 57.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 59.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 42. High 61.
Thanks for the update!
Thank you TK
Thanks TK !
This has been an unbelievable school vacation week. Really 3 summer like days ( Monday, Tuesday and Friday) and one late spring like day (Thursday). Only Wednesday was legitimately cool. And with the cool front slowing still more, another mild to warm and somewhat humid day tomorrow. Unreal !
We all wished it for you:). A thank you for the spectacular January you arranged for us in your area 😀
Well, let’s hope your summer stay also features enjoyable weather.
Thank you. I wouldn’t mind if you want to start work on it now. Everyone likes sun but one of us likes a big storm with high tide. Of course the last two vacations we had earl and Irene.
Thanks tk for the update, I think your a tad to low for the Boston/Providence areas, I believe most of the area gets 1-2 inches with isolated higher amounts just west of the area, I do see how your scenario happens but just don’t think it makes a big difference, I do think the cape gets closer to a half inch though,, as always I respect your knowledge 🙂
I’m thinking the same thing Charlie but mine is based on nothing but gut feeling
Another thought on the upcoming rain……
A couple days back, the GFS in particular and the EURO to a much lesser extent had cooler temps and showers in northern New England near a cool front.
In actuality, as we have seen today, the front ended up a good 100 or more miles further north and west, resulting in sunshine and warmth across most of New England, even northern New England. So, I’m guessing either the east coast ridge was a little stronger than projected or the trof was a little sharper than projected.
So, as it is 2 to 2.5 days out to the rainy period, it will be no surprise to me at all if the projection of the track of the surface low shifts a bit to the west. Already today, the consensus track is Long Island then moving NW. A shift further west 50 to 70 miles into NW New Jersey and getting multi inch rains into eastern New England is going to be tough.
🙂 good job i love reading your blog ! 😉
Good morning all. Are we still out of the rain all day except hit/miss showers? Thank you !
If you meant today I don’t think we see anything before 10PM.
Woooo eeee. Snow in Canada huh ?
Does anybody follow Henry Margusity on Facebook, sounds like he is trying to get a beef going with Joe Bastardi. It seems out of Character for Henry.
I used to but I got sick of his hype 🙂
Clouds took a lot longer to burn off than I thought but it’s turned into another beautiful day! We have been so lucky this spring to have some fantastic weather. I know it’s been dry but I wouldn’t trade this spring for a “normal” NE spring for anything.
It has been an incredible spring hasn’t it. We haven’t had one this nice in years. Even somewhat humid today
So much for paying for a warm and snowless winter
huh?
Bc we had such a warm winter u would think we would have gotten a crappy spring, not the case though 🙂
Hmm I thought opposite – pattern would continue.
I agree!
Just put down so grass seed and will lay down so ferterilzer late afternoon. I went on the roof and cleaned out the weather station.
I am going to guess/hope that I receive 2.25″. Anyone else want to take a guess?
I’ll guess .9 here and hope I am waaaaaayyyyy off
I will guess 1.45 at Logan
I do think some locations just west will come in at 2+
I put down grass seed on Monday and it is just coming up, so the rain won’t wash it away…
As long as its coming up a little your fine but if it hasn’t germinating then it possible to be washed away
We will fertilize in rain and feed weed after rain out front. My husband says I’m nuts going out in rain. I should have seeded last wk to let it germinate. I’ll wait on that
I think 1.7 at Logan and west of Worcester 3+.
Clouds building out in mendon.
I think rain could start as early as 10 or 11 Sunday morning, the meat and potatoes will be between 6pm Sunday-Mon 3am, very gusty winds with this storm
Flood watches abound…excellent. I’ll stick with my original numbers and be happily, happily too low.
Just returned from 2+ days in coastal Maine. While the Seabreeze was chilly on the beach, yesterday and today made it feel like were experiencing summer in April.
Kind of glad the weather is going downhill this week, or I would have a tough time adjusting to being back inside.
Sure is an impressive area of rain coming together in northern FL and likewise, an impressive circulation in the Gulf of Mexico.
Tom that plume of moisture is just going engulf the eastern seaboard.
Absolutely. The moisture looks impressive already. I keep trying to understand how it’s going to rain so much in the eastern third of New England when the track of the low is fairly far to the west of us.
I hopped on your ship a while ago hence my .9 inch guess for this area. I just came in from deck. It’s a glorious night. Nice breeze. Enjoy the rides.
That’s tides
It is a glorious night. We’ve been sitting out on the deck for a while now.
As the low tracks nnw through nyc the main batch of rain gets disconnected from the main low and continues nne right into sne bc it gets so intense (bombogenesis) 🙂
Snow:)
Barry’s evening forecast is for 2-4″ widespread (including Boston) and 1″+ for the Cape. I wonder if TK will finally come on board in his next blog? 😉
This should put a dent in our rainfall deficit but this will not be a drought buster.
Barry also hinted at cooler temps arriving for the summer!! Don’t like hearing that!!!!!
I actually wouldn’t mind that, instead of high 80’s and low 90’s it will be high 70’s low 80’s 🙂
I like that idea too but will be happy with what we get ESP since higher temps seem to want to produce boomers
He’s said that before. He’s basing it on a potential El Niño coming back at some point. Historically that’s meant the potential for overall cooler weather, maybe. So instead of 4 heat waves this summer, maybe we get 3. Personally I dont put a whole lot of stock in long term forecasts like that. The winter long term forecast really turned out correct (not 😉 ). The pattern has been for warm to hot, so until I see consistently cool weather in July, take it for what it’s worth. I think we’re in a completly different kind of weather pattern overall and the old rules potentially dont apply. My gut instinct says we see a summer like 2010. I’d love to see at least 20, 90+ degree days. Most likely 10-12 though. But it would t hurt my feelings to see it nice and hot for July and most of August :).
I agree re long term. The winter should have been forecast to be a bust based on past winters all a bust when there was oct snow. That I find fascinating
Interesting how the GFS has been consistently more robust than the NAM with the precip totals for this storm. Usually it is the other way around. Either way you slice it, we’ve got widespread 2-3″ rain totals and I think many areas in west/central MA and CT exceed 3.0-3.5″, particularly the east slopes of the higher elevations. I am with Coastal and continue to think that Boston metro will exceed 2″ with this storm.
And how about the back side of the storm!? Buffalo is bracing for 6″ of snow with 12″ possible in Jamestown. This is going to be their October snowstorm I am afraid with numerous downed trees and power lines under the weight of the heavy wet snow.
Hopefully no one living in the Norwood area was blown away tonight. NW sustained wind of 80 mph reported at 10PM by the NWS. Thankfully the wind is now S at 7 mph again 🙂
Mark that’s odd. Right round that time and then once earlier in the nit we had a sudden burst of wind. Not 80 mph but enough to have us all scrambling to look out the window
I think I’m gonna push the Rain start time to 11ish but 1-2 inches of rain are Likley with isolated higher amounts just west 🙂
Bring on the rain!
My husband was surprised to wake up to find no rain overnight here. I told him all day I didn’t think we’d get it till today so not to fertilize. He kept sticking the radar from his phone in my face. It was esp,sweet since I tole him repeatedly the other night it wasn’t our remote that ws broken – it was verizon DVD. It was the remote 🙁
Drizzle starting here in JP!
Drizzle here too.
My buisiness associate is running a race in JP this morning. Was hoping it would hold off there for him
Starts somewhere around Doyle’s pub??
Wow the lilacs are in full bloom here too.
Well….I still dont buy this 2 inches of rain in eastern Mass and really think the flood watches over the eastern third of the region are questionable. Watching some of the weather casts this morning, as they show the projected radar images for the next 24 hrs, they seemingly show waves of showers, with occasional breaks in the precip, in eastern New England. The more concentrated, continuous area of heavy rain seems headed for CT and western Mass.
I think Boston struggles to get that 1 inch total. I’ll go higher than the .5 to .8 I posted the other day and say it ends up being .91 at Logan.
Tom, what does your eyes tell you when looking at the radar?
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php
I see an initial band of rain just south of Long Island that will work into the area late afternoon and deposit up to a quarter inch of rain……
As the upper flow backs though, I think a lot of that solid rain in VA, NC misses just to the west of the eastern third of New England. If the radar beam extended another 100 miles eastward into the ocean, I’m guessing it would show bands of showers interspersed with breaks and I think that will be the eastern third of New England’s overnight.
I’m still in your camp tom. And will be happy if wrong 🙂
Good morning all! =) Working on a short update now to be followed by a full discussion later.
Data courtesy of Taunton NWS climate section thru 4/21 or 70% of April……
Logan : + 7.5F…….-2.15 inch rainfall deficit
Hartford : +5.7F ….. -2.40 inch rainfall deficit
Providence : +4.5F ….-2.90 inch rainfall deficit
Worcester :+6.0F …..-2.57 inch rainfall deficit
Wow, that cool front just came through with a brief surge of northerly winds and a big time temp drop. Brrrr !