The Week Ahead

83 Comments

10:20PM

A drought-denting rain is underway. This is not enough to end the drought over eastern New England, but it is enough to get the deficits down a little. And for the most part the rain is coming in such a way that flooding is not a problem. The heaviest rain areas are moving through during this Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday, with the heaviest axis shifting west of the forecast area as low pressure to the south pivots into the NY/NJ area. The large circulation around this system will impact the weather through Wednesday, but a dry slot moving up from the south will cut off the majority of the rainfall by mid morning Monday, and then only scattered showers will be around due to unstable air for the following couple days. A low pressure trough will remain in control as we get later into the week with another disturbance bringing a shower threat Thursday-Friday. Looking ahead to next weekend, departing low pressure should cause a windy/cool Saturday and high pressure should result in more tranquil weather for Sunday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain with embedded heavier showers. Temperature rising from the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers becoming less numerous during the morning. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon. High 60-65. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 48-53. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. High 58-63. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 48. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 46. High 58.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Low 48. High 56.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 38. High 55.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

83 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. A chilly 41 degrees in Marblehead, more like a late Febuary night. Not sure how much rain as fallen so far, but we have been in and out of it since it started. The winds are starting to bang against the house. If only it were snow in the middle of winter…

  3. Thanks TK. I’ll repost my note from the end of the last blog…

    We’re up to 1.25″ in Coventry, CT with wind blown heavy rain. Flood watch upgraded to Flood Advisory across much of CT and Hamden Co, MA for poor drainage area flooding, an additional 1-2″ of rain overnight, and rainfall rates up to 0.5″/hour.

    BB in his latest post still calling for 2-3.5″ most areas except closer to 1 inch or less from parts of lower Plymouth County to Cape Cod.

    Nantucket has only reported 0.02″ so far. LOL. TK, I think your totals maybe too HIGH for down there!

  4. Vicki – if you are still up, I checked two Weather Underground reporting stations out out Framingham and they recorded 0.75 and 0.78″ of rain as of about 15 minutes ago. Not too shabby.

  6. Goodnight everyone, moderate to sometimes heavy rain, temp is 43.1 degrees and 0.91 of rain to this point 🙂

  7. Hi All, I am a first time poster but have been reading the blog for a long time. I wanted to thank you all for some great posts last week. I was away in Jamaica with my family and unable to access many of the weather sites I normally look at. It was great to read everyone’s evaluations of what was going to happen with this storm. I felt like I was still connected! We drove back today from Toronto after we flew back there yesterday from Jamaica and then visited some family last night. The temp as we went through Watertown, NY this afternoon was 39F! We hit a lot of heavy rain from Albany east to Worcester. The rain was especially heavy on the east side of the Berkshires. We have arrived home safely now in North Attleboro and have 1.01 inches of rainfall as of 11:45pm. Have a good night everyone and thanks again for all the great posts!

  8. 1.6″ now in Coventry, CT. Other 12AM reports:
    Hartford 1.56″
    Providence 1.22″
    Worcester 1.18″
    Boston 0.86″

    Goodnight!

  11. I’ll be interested to hear Coastal’s rain total. I’m guessing it will be over 1 inch, maybe even towards 1.5 inches because it poured several times here overnight. Glad to see eastern sections did much better than my 0.5 to 0.8 prediction.

    5 am obs show light snow in Watertown, NY and Rochester, NY. Should be an interesting day out there at higher elevations.

    Back to work. Have a good day all !

    1. Tom, I am .5″ away from predicted total. We have received 1.70″ so far. Roughly 1.40 fell from 10:00pm to now.

  15. Well good morning all and what a difference a night makes. If my gauge can be trusted – and I was having serious doubts last night – we have 2.06 total as of this morning. I woke up several times to very heavy rain but didn’t look at the gauge because I figured if it were not registering I’d be seriously angry at it (sad that I can be angry at an object) and wouldn’t go back to sleep 🙂

    That would be very roughly 1.75 overnight and still raining.

  17. 2.65″ and still raining lightly at my house. We had a solid 2.5-3.5″ of rain in northern CT. Other totals for reporting stations in SNE as of 8AM:

    Providence 3.14″
    Hartford 2.72″
    Worcester: 2.50″
    Boston/Logan 2.31″
    Plymouth 1.81″
    Nantucket: 0.50″

    Still raining at most locations so these will continue to go up a bit more!

      1. There’s a little mist but it’s actually went up to 2.49, and the suns trying to come out 🙂

  20. Not sure but it says I got 2.93 inches
    the forcast for the week. each day there is a chance of showers with mostly to partly cloudy skies. Highs being in the upper 50s with lows in the low 40s. Friday and saturday will be the sunniest but also the coolest

  21. I will be the first to admit it (or the second), I totally blew this forecast! On this blog, I strive for accurate weather forecasting and poor humor.

    As of this writing I have fell short of my predicted rainfall amount by .41″ and judging by the radar I do not think I can make that up before the storm departs. Total accumulation in my immediate area is 1.84″.

    I know the rain that we have experienced does not reverse the drought we have been subject to, but it definitely helps. Let’s hope in the future, rain will be more prevalent than it has been in the last several months. It would probably be a good idea to remove any standing water around your home and start up your mosquito magnet if you have one. I’ve experienced them since the warmer weather in March.

      1. Well I’d say make that 4 but since I really don’t know enough to accurate predict anything at this point no one pays much attention and that is a good thing.

  24. My bet is if this storm had tracked near/just south of the benchmark, it could have been a nice repeat of April 1997 with a good 1-2 feet of snow…sigh 🙂

    As it is, western NY including Buffalo is expected to get clobbered this afternoon according to Henry Margusity.

    Regarding snowfall Henry mentioned on his morning blog that he got 1.5″ at his house and that Joe Lundberg got 3″.

    1. I find it amusing that when the Euro painted this exact same Noreaster scenario 4-5 days ago, Henry Margusity found it “laughable” that it was depicting significant snow in his backyard. I commented on here that because he said that, this storm was in the bag. The HM180 model will win out every time!

    1. I see that on radar!

      I wonder how much will fall in my area. Do I have a shot at another .41″? Mmmmmmmm. Time will tell.

        1. It is an expanding and moving due north looking to clip from 495 eastward, I only see an additional trace to as much as .20 in some of the locally heavier downpours, c ya 🙂

    1. aw jeezzz – I’m getting depressed. I guess at 62 there’s little chance of snow here 🙁

      Philip – BTW – I loved your sigh too 🙂

  28. Oh, only 3.13 inches of “not too much in eastern MA”. Well, I blew that one. =)

    1. TK, I feel your pain. 🙂

      What happened that caused the higher than expected rainfall amounts? Was it the track of the low?

      1. Everything was about 50 miles east of where I expected it to be. I had the same forecast as 2 long-time met’s that I’ve worked with.

        1. I sure hear what you are saying but I am not sure there is any job that anyone does where there are not misses. It’d be an awfully boring world if we were all perfect 🙂 You do GREAT!

  29. i guess i was off a little. i said up to 2 inches with localized areas that recieved 2 to 3 inches.

    Marshland has 4 ft at dock 1 with about 9ft at second dock. so yeah its back to normal.water is still rising

  30. Looks like the last batch of precip just passed us in North Attleboro and now the sun is breaking through the clouds, the temp has dropped from earlier and is now down to 54. We ended up with 2.87 inches of rain.

      1. Thanks Vicki. I posted for the first time last night but have been reading for a while. I was in Jamaica last week and all of you kept me very informed on this storm while I did not have internet access other than through my phone!.

    1. North just curious where in N.Attleboro your from, I grew up in na all my life and know it very well, and know a good amount of people around 🙂

      1. We live off of Mt. Hope street. We have lived here for about 12 years and like North Attleboro a lot. They have a great school system too!

        1. Oh yes, my family owns the auto body shop across from the new police dept, welcome I roam these areas often, I’m usually at community field behind the old junior high that I went to, anyways have a good day 🙂

          1. Sorry I’m at the field behind the old junior high school usually watching baseball or coaching football

            1. Thanks. I have been reading the posts for a long time from everyone. Everyone does a great job!

              We watch some of the high school football games there sometimes. I think they just did some work on that field this past winter.

              1. Oh yes big football family myself, my dad is in the North pop Warner HOF so anyways have a great day, and welcome to this blog, tk and everyone here do a great job

  32. Last little bit of rain just came through and the grand total is 2.87 inches, we really needed it 🙂

    1. It was very close tk, just 50 miles and we would have gotten less, from the canal eastward received much less 🙂

  35. When’s the next rain event…looking forward to my next prediction. LOL !! Maybe I’ll stick to the climate data for a while. :). Drove to work in blinding rain this morning and the local stream had risen a good couple of feet, so I knew I was off a couple of inches in total.

    1. Well Tom, this is one case where missing the totals low wasn’t going to disappoint too many people since we are all in need of rain and there were really no flooding problems with this event.

      2. Indeed….the only problem is my lawn is going to grow more quickly again. Before this rain, it was already growing at the July pace of one cut per month. 🙂

        1. My lawn got its first cut Saturday. It wasn’t terribly long yet, but I wanted to rake the yard and then cut and gather all the loose stuff before it really started growing. Came out great. But now it’s about to have another growth spurt. 😛

          1. My lawn is an embarrassment. I don’t think it even knows its a lawn. Hopefully feed we just gave it will help.

Comments are closed.