Dry Spell Lurking

135 Comments

3:38PM

The whirlpool of unsettled air spinning about the Northeast US will be exiting via southeastern Canada during the next 24 hours as another disturbance travels west to east on a path just south of New England. This will keep slightly unsettled weather in the forecast through Thursday night. After this, a dry spell will return. The disturbance that earlier looked as if it would bring some wet weather Sunday is likely to pass out to sea, south of New England, with high pressure being the main player in the weather starting Friday and lasting well into next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers through 11PM, clearing overnight. Patchy frost forming in outlying suburban and rural areas, especially in deeper valleys. Low 33-38 most inland areas, 38-43 coast and urban centers. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of light rain mid afternoon on favoring areas south of the Mass Pike. High from the mid 50s Cape Cod and the Islands to lower 60s near the MA/NH border. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with light to briefly moderate rain along and south of the Mass Pike and periods of lighter rain north of the Mass Pike. Clearing toward dawn. Low 40-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 54-59. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Filtered sunshine. Low 39. High 58.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 37. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 63.

135 thoughts on “Dry Spell Lurking”

  1. Thanks TK and the light rain for tomorrow night sounds better for golf than heavy rain!

    You wouldn’t by chance be serving ribs???

  2. frost advisories have been posted for most of southern new england time to get out the garden tarps

    1. Thanks Matt – was just coming here to say the same thing. Hope Charlie sees it – I believe he did some serious planting

  3. Thanks Tk, can’t agree more with your forecast BUT I do believe after the dry period I believe we will go into a wetter period somewhere between May5th-12th, as always have a great day 🙂

      1. Yes I believe it’s borderline, never had a problem, will c, it should get down to about 35 maybe 34 degrees at like 530-600am in my spot 🙂

  7. I see from the current temps in west Texas, some of the first 100 degree readings of the year ( I think Phoenix may have been 100F earlier in the week) are occurring. 98F in Amarillo and low 100’s just south. I guess this shouldn’t be out of the ordinary, as the sun is now mid-August strength.

  8. I like to check the arctic sea ice analysis web site every once in a while. They have a chart showing how many millions of square miles of sea ice there is in the arctic. For the first time that I can remember, the current sea ice is at the long term average and based on its slow melting pace this early spring, is actually about to go above avg vs the long term avg. In reading their analysis, they seem to classify a lot of the ice as young ice that will melt quickly during the melt season. I just find it interesting that it’s been a while since heading into the warm season with this much arctic ice and what effect that might have on the overall pattern.

  9. going to middlesex. the reason Money. I get in for about 1/5 of what it would cost me to go to any of the other schools. Not to mention I will be able to get into any state school for free if i maintain a 3.0 gpa or higher and I will not have to deal with large loans. They are also smaller classes and I do better in them .

    2. Matt one of the women who rode (horses) with my daughter was a remarkably successful business woman. Her husband the same. When my kids were looking at colleges she told me her advice was to get the core courses at a smaller community college and then transfer. It’s also what her daughter did. Smart move you are making. Nothing wrong with starting in more expensive schools but also smart to do it your way. Good luck

  11. Went outside this afternoon and covered most of my plants and relizing that tomorrow I probably will see frost on the trees which have already gotten leaves. Also the water temp of the marsh is generally in the low 40s. It droped about 10 degrees since last week I have a feeling that it will continue as i see fog already forming I can not wait to see ice crystals on the trees tomorrow morning 😀

  12. Got the job! Just need to work out salary, maybe I should send in Vicki or Charlie to handle that aspect of the negotiation. 🙂

      1. Coastal. What’s electrical const? And I’d b happy to negotiate. It’s one thing I do well. They usually don’t see what’s coming until I’ve left table. 🙂

  15. North of the Pike .10-.25 of rain,, south of the pike .25-.50 of rain,, Boston gets .26, and Providence gets .38, Starts around 3pm Thu and be over by midnight. Have a good night guys an gals 🙂

  17. TK’s blog title is certainly on target. The CPC shows potential drought conditions for our area yet again. Bone dry for the foreseeable future after tomorrow (Thursday). 🙁

    The CPC also shows big warmth down the road so my bet is that May will be well above normal as well…the beat goes on.

  18. It makes sense if you look at the latest NAO going in the positive territory which has been the case most of the time since after Irene and the remanents of Lee happened.

    1. I think we may pay for this positive nao down the road. Whether or not it’s in the warm or cold months.

  20. Sudden death overtime in game 7 to decide who moves on to eastern conference semifinals.
    Coastal I agree with you and I do think we will pay the price at some point because as I always say the weather tries to balance itself out.

  22. just a reminder , if you have potted plants bring them inside. If they are out door plants cover them. If you have a pool run the filter to keep the pipes from freezing. keep water features running .

        1. hmmm…not sure about Tim being the goat. If anyone deserves that honor its the B’s offense in general. It’s like watching a soccer match. Not saying I want 10-6 games but more scoring would be nice. I miss the good old days of Espo, Hodge, Orr, etc.

  25. To save myself the grief, I will give up on the C’s and Sox in advance. 🙁

    It is best to move forward and look to the Pats 🙂 if only they could win a Super Bowl though. 🙁

    1. hay lets keep faith in the pats they have been a playoff contender for the last 11 years they are still a killer team and they had not have a loosing record for 13 years

  26. Sorry to all you B’s fans out there. My team didn’t even make the playoffs but I was rooting for the B’s…can’t stand Ovechkin. Hope they get knocked out in the next round.

    Coastal and Matt – congrats on the new job and college admission!

    Cold night tonight. Was not too concerned about the frost initially but with the temp already down to 37 at 11PM and clear skies…I think we are going to drop to freezing or below by morning. Yikes.

  27. Good morning. No frost here thankfully.

    I’m sorry for all of the B’s fans. It was the first thing I heard on the news this morning and thought of all of you 🙁

    1. now you’re talking!! My sister in law is visiting from Atlanta this weekend. That would be a nice treat for her but I suppose it’s in the middle of the night when everyone is sleeping???

  30. Doesn’t look like much precip tonight at all. One batch of moisture passes north of the area with the northern stream system and the other passes to our south over the ocean. They don’t really phase till they get past us.

    I don’t think it snows Saturday night. Everything looks to pass by to our south and out to sea. With the timing and very cold air in place, it would be interesting if the system tracked further north.. Big story this weekend will be the cold overnight lows with widespread temps in the 20’s and low 30’s. More frost and freeze advisories will be issued I’m sure.

    Nice warm up next week though…looks like we may be back in the 70’s by Wednesday!

  32. Clouds moving in. It’s been a spectacular day with clear blue sky until now. Husband’s league kicks off season with a 4:00 tee time…..go figure 🙂

  34. looks like the weekend looks bone dry but the night will go near or below freezing ,cover up the plants saturday night and sunday

  38. Interesting system out by the Bahamas early next week on the models. No trough to capture it and bring it up the coast though.

      1. Doesn’t look like it as pressures don’t look that low. It looks like two areas of moisture converging together. The GFS pulses up a lot of rain but the Euro has much less moisture with it. It looks like the area stays around that area most of next week.

  39. It looks like the tropics are going to be quite as active this season due to a developing El Nino. As they say it only takes one to make it a bad season.

    1. He got home around 8:30. Unfortunately he didn’t play well according to him but he said he had a great time. Thanks for asking

      1. Glad to hear he stayed dry! Us golfers are never satisfied with the way we play, we always think there’s something we could have done better. It’s a love/hate relationship with the game 🙂

        1. hahahaha – no he REALLY didn’t play well. He usually shoots low 40s and was in the low 50s. He had a 2 handicap when we married. Marriage and three kids totally destroyed that 🙂

  42. Just looking at radar I don’t see much in the way of anything measurable in the area, maybe a spot comes in at .10 but take anything we get bc it looks very dry for a while.

  43. Just happy this wasn’t an advertised snowstorm (if we were in winter), would have been a big let down.

    2. Scott u were right less than .10, I thought we would have gotten closer to a quarter inch, I ended up with .04 roads are wet but that’s it 🙂

  45. The precip really has blossomed over northern Maine…..however, Caribou is still in the mid-upper 30s with a light east wind and reporting moderate rain.

  46. Did anyone get rain last night? WE had virtually nothing. And wow is it windy. My sister-in-law flies in this morning. Wondering if the wind will delay her flight.

      1. Thanks North. She just called and did arrive safely and on time which surprised even her some considering the wind

  48. Freeze warning tonight – did we already establish that? Sorry if we did – work is nuts so my concentration on other things is limited !

  50. We will see if the plants get killed, I’ve had a frost warning and freeze warning in past yrs and nothing has happened,, will c 🙂

    1. Oh boy I wish I could say the same. I have lost some very special plants from frosts in the years we’ve been here. In recent years we haven’t really had the frosts as advertised but since so many of mine are planted in memory or are in a garden of memories I don’t take the chance.

      1. I talked to our local garden center and they said they are particularly worried about this since it is to be a freeze. Covering doesn’t help much because it’s the temp and not the frost formation that is the danger. She said anything that has buds is in particular danger. I don’t believe my peonies (which she did mention) have budded. My honeysuckle has but she was less worried about that

        1. so much for me noticing things – I just checked and all of my peonies have buds. I have never seen buds in April in the nearly 32 years we’ve been here

  51. All of the trees that hadn’t had foliage yet have popped big time this week, guess they just needed some water, lol

    1. It’s amazing isn’t it. We put down the mulch in our garden 2 weeks ago tomorrow. The Peonies were about 6 inches tall. They are now higher than the 3 foot wall behind them. As you said the trees are full. It is a spectacular time of year isn’t it 🙂

    2. agreed the marsh behind my house got alot of life in it still alot of trees are at their baby leaves or buds but they will get there. It takes a long time for many of the trees on the marsh to get their leaves growing and budding.

  52. Its a little cold for me actually. I’m in need of warmth that stays around. Id rather not see the 40’s again until October at this point.

    1. Looks like after Tuesday it warms back up to near acceptable levels for me at least. Cant get back to 75+ soon enough fo me….and stay there 🙂

  53. http://mattsouzaweather.wordpress.com/
    I have updated all the pages on my blog if you want to see them
    Make sure you bring in the plants or cover them. Its going to be a hard freeze also keep your pools or water features running so the pipes do not freeze or filters freeze. Good luck gardeners

  54. Tom, when do you expect this dry weather pattern to change?

    Thinking the grass seed a layed this weekend might be a waste of money.

    1. Hey Coastal……Well, I don’t think we go two to three weeks again without a raindrop. In reading long range discussions, it seems the overall pattern eventually becomes more zonal….which I think means a few warm frontal and cold frontal passage showers from time to time, maybe an inch of rain in total over the next 10 to 15 days, but no drenching storms like last week. At least that’s the idea for now, I think. 🙂

      1. Thank you, You are, without question, one of the best bloggers on here.

        I was beginning to think we may dip back into the same old extremely dry pattern again. As always, time will tell.

        1. Thanks……….that dry stretch in February, March and the first half of April until last week’s storm was excessive……I do think the region is headed back towards below avg precip, just not to that degree.

          By the way, it looks cold in Chicago as well watching the Sox game.

  56. The 14-day CPC outlook has the entire east coast well below normal. I can’t recall the last time that has happened…maybe last June??

    2. Yes, that blue shading over the east coast almost looked strange, having not seen it in that area in so long. I wouldn’t be surprised if that backed off a bit in a few days. The NAO outlook has changed big time the last couple of days, from looking positive in early May, now to looking negative. So, until that outlook settles in to something less changeable, I think the outlooks will struggle to show some consistency.

  57. As long as the sun is out I don’t care if the temps are below normal especially in the summer. As I always say a day without heat and humidity means were a day closer to those cool crisp autumn days.

  58. Anyone have a guess at the lowest the temp could drop. I really don’t want to turn the heat back on. It’s been off for weeks. I can’t believe it would get low enough for pipes to freeze

    1. The funny part is I kept accusing everyone of turning the heat on today because the house was just plain hot. But it had to have been because the sun is hot and the leaves are not fully out so heat was from the sun. I really want solar panels

        1. Didn’t have to turn on heat here fortunately – yay! Of course my sister-in-law who is used to GA temps may be wearing a jacket when she arrives shortly for breakfast!!!

  59. Todd’s forecast tonight (high temps).
    Sat: 55
    Sun: 58
    Mon: 60
    Tue: 60 rain at night.
    Later next week he has us in the 70’s.

  60. No freeze here – only got down to 35 thank heavens. Was 32 in Franklin so freeze was not hard enough to hurt plants there. Waiting to talk to my daughter who is in a valley. They were covering everything when I talked to her last night.

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