Showers Last Through Wednesday, Then A Nice Turn

140 Comments

7:47PM original

7:26AM Wednesday update to remove time-periods already occurred and tweak forecast slightly (no major changes)

Wednesday: A wave of low pressure riding up a stationary front will produce plenty of showers around the region through early afternoon. A break in the shower activity is expected for mid to late afternoon, but another frontal system approaching from the west may set off a shower or thunderstorm in some areas by Wednesday evening. This activity may be heavier well to the west but should start to weaken as it enters the eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast area.

Thursday through Monday: 5 fantastic days as high pressure dominates. It seems pretty certain that a storm system offshore by Sunday-Monday will not have an impact.

Tuesday: Shower threat returns as a system moves in from the west.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms in the morning to early afternoon, a few isolated showers mid to late afternoon. Highs ranging from the lower 60s south-facing coastal areas to lower 70s most inland locations. Wind S 10-15 MPH gusting around or over 20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm early (before 9:30pm) then becoming partly cloudy. Low 51-56. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 68-73. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 75.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 56. High 77, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 57. High 78, cooler coast.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 66.

140 thoughts on “Showers Last Through Wednesday, Then A Nice Turn”

  2. Thanks TK.
    I am thinking the slight risk area should be for far western areas of SNE tomorrow.

    1. Probably about right. At least the western half of MA, southwestern NH possibly, VT, interior western CT, maybe eastern NY. We’ll have to see if they get a slice of sunshine to really destablize the atmosphere.

      Right now I’m thinking 7PM-9PM target window for the passage of a weakening line of showers/storms across eastern MA.

    1. Well thank you, but I can’t really claim credit for the weekend. I have a birthday coming up this weekend and wouldn’t mind a nice day for it. 🙂

      1. TK, I totally agree with you hoping for nice birthday weather. I’m looking for the same the following weekend for my birthday.
        Happy early Birthday wishes!! (just in case if forget) 🙂

        1. The same to you even earlier! haha!

          I have a friend with a bday next weekend (27th), and some of the plans include a trip to Hampton Beach, so hoping for another nice weekend. I know that’s a lot to hope for in New England (2 great weekends in a row, that is), but it happens sometimes!

          1. I’m the 27th, too! Tell your friend “from one Gemini to another, Happy Birthday!!!”

              1. Mine is May 20 which is right on the cusp of Taurus and Gemini. I display characteristics of both. 😉

                1. But you seem very calm – can you imagine living with two of me……..my poor husband 😯

  4. Hey Vicki…my grandmother had a very similar story regarding thunderstorms. When she was growing up in the country (Williamsburg, VA) she and her siblings would be awaken at night by her mother and everyone stood in the middle of the house near the front door ready to leave at a moment’s notice as well. To this day, I don’t understand the reasoning unless it was because of possible tornadoes. In fact, my grandmother was born in mid-August and was told over the years that the week she was born there were daily thunderstorms, which is probably quite typical for the Mid-Atlantic region anyway. 🙂

    As for me, I just never liked thunderstorms as a kid, and still don’t like them today. I am especially fearful when I am awakened in the middle of the night by them. I would also like to add that I have had two or three answering machines destroyed during severe storms over the years including last June. For some reason, lightning always strikes my telephone lines and travels through to the machine…this is according to telephone repairmen who have never been able to explain as to “why”…only “what”.

    Having said all that, I still look forward to Jimmy’s updates should severe storms approach. 🙂

    1. Hi Philip – I’ve never heard of anyone else doing that – what a great story. My mom’s theory wasn’t to leave but that the stairs were mid-house, away from all windows and all electrical sources. I have a VERY healthy respect for lightning. All electrics (tv, computer, etc) are shut off and unplugged. No phone conversations. I had a huge disagreement with my father-in-law once when he said there was no danger using a phone during a Tstorm. And no using water in the bathroom. So maybe my mom did influence me somewhat but I still love them. My youngest is terrified and until she was married, would appear in our room for “safety” if there were a storm at night!

  5. We have seen this before in May where storms fire to the west of SNE then as they get closer they begin to weaken as the atmosphere stabilizes and thunderstorms don’t like stable air.

        1. The only event I remember from May 1988 was when I graduated from college. I then got my first “serious” job the following month as well. Many grads today can’t say the same, unfortunately. 😉

      2. Then, I think the summer of 88, for about a six week period, from the last week of June to the first week of August was the warmest six week stretch of weather I can ever remember experiencing in New England.

        1. Yes Tom, now THAT part of 1988 I remember. I was very happy coming in to work for the A/C. There were a few times though that the A/C in the office broke down.

          I stayed at that job for more than 10+ years. 🙂

        2. We have pictures of my husband sitting in a very small wading pool in the back yard with all three kids. We joined a pool club the next year.

  6. Thanks TK for the update as always! I hope the good weather can last into Monday. I will be attending a commencement on that day. 🙂

  7. So we welcomed the arrival of our son at 3 pm today. Samir came in at 9 lbs and 21 inches mom and baby are doing great!!if you friend me on FB you can see pictures.

    4. Congrats Hadi. My daughter was 9 pounds 1 ounce when she was born and only wore newborn diapers for a few days! Hope everyone is doing well!

    5. Congrats Hadi !! Oh, thinking about those interrupted nights of sleep…an hour here, two there….but, it’s worth it !

    7. Wow…what a big baby! Looks like you can skip right past the newborn clothes! Glad to hear all are doing OK….congrats!

  9. From the NWS Skywarn e-mail I received today :re tomorrow’s storm threat:

    At this time, conditions are expected to clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization. Wind fields should be strong enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in a continuous line or one or two short lines of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding also possible. The greatest threat for severe weather is in Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern Connecticut through Hartford and Tolland Counties. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon into early evening for this area.

    Caveats to the severe weather potential include the amount of cooling aloft, degree of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur as quickly as currently anticiapted and location and intensity of the wind fields over the current SPC depicted slight risk area. This will be better understood on Wednesday Morning.

    1. That clearing will be the key because the more sunshine those areas you mention see the stronger the thunderstorms could get. If you are not a fan of thunderstorms root for the clouds tomorrow to hang tough and prevent the sun from coming out.

  13. About 10 days out….and both the long range EURO and GFS have a fantastic looking start to Memorial Day Weekend…..with 850 mb temps that would imply very warm to hot temps…………This cannot be good 🙂 🙂

      1. To have a dew point in the 70’s is like having a windchill in teens. Both very uncomfortable.

  14. Good morning all!

    I edited the existing entry to remove the “short term” part from the discussion, the forecast for last night, and make a few tiny adjustments to the remainder of the forecast. There are no major changes here, but if you must know, I kept today cloudier, extended the shower threat a little longer into the afternoon (based on radar trends), and changed next Monday from “partly cloudy” to “mostly sunny”. 😉

    1. Thanks TK –

      when in May? If you don’t share you stand the risk of me wishing you a happy birthday every day that remains this month…………or did we miss it? I may have to backtrack 😀

    2. How much further into the afternoon? We have a tree planting ceremony at work at 2:30 this afternoon. It’s already been postponed 3 times! LOL

        1. Yea we played, wasnt too bad, on and off light showers till the 6th hole…then the heavens opened up, lol. The only thing that would have made it more miserable is a temps 10 deg lower and wind. I guess I cant complain. I wanted to blame my awful 45 on the weather, but I’m going to blame my putter instead 😆

          1. hahahahaha – 45 is not awful – a question from a nongolfer – what is par for the 9 you are playing?

  15. Thanks everyone!! A lot of May birthdays, I also have I becoming up on the 22nd.

    Coastal congrats to your sister. What hospital is she at?

    1. my rain gauge says .32 since yesterday – anyone know if there’s a site I can go to where I can check if it’s accurate? I tried wunderground but it says 0 which is just for today. I can’t figure how to check history on wunderground or even if you can

      1. Hi Vicki, somtimes the Weatherbug sites close to you aren’t too far off. They only show rain since midnight but you can look at yesterday too.

        1. Thanks North – I can’t seem to figure how to look at yesterday…..now that I know you can, I’ll look harder.

          Thanks. The one I’m using is about .75 mile as the crow flies

  18. Hadi – congrats on your new arrival!

    Coastal – congrats to your sister, too!

    Kind of dark here in Sudbury now – I wonder if any of the heavy showers will come up this far north. Looking forward to thunderstorms later – as long as they are not severe. I love tracking them.

    And ‘though I am looking forward to the summer, sometimes I feel something is missing. And that is the lack of snow this past winter. Here’s hoping that next winter is more “normal” and we get more snow. But, for now – just enjoying the coming summer with some heat, humidity and storms(as long as they don’t hurt anyone or anything).

    TK – I probably will be on towards the end of the wk., but just in case, Happy Birthday! And thanks again for putting out a great blog and giving us a chance to express our weather observations!

  19. Haha In Arlington u can get caught with a bag of weed and get a $100 ticket but if you use a leaf blower during day u will get arrested, haha, there talking about it on weei and they cant even talk about it without laughing historically, what the hek r they doing up there? Also Concord they just passed a law on no bottled water? What about all the other drinks that r in plastic, what a half a## way of thinking, really this is embarrassing, hopefully the news doesn’t spread out of state

    1. I hate sitting on my deck when my neighbor is using a high powered leaf blower – sorry but I do – it goes on for close to an hour. Arrested is nuts.

      1. There working Vicki, I sit on my deck and hear them all the time, but my thinking is there are alotta things that bother me but I’m not going to tell another life what to or not to do, I would never vote it out to make some (workers) life’s miserable, why would I do that bc of noise, it comes across selfish and very Massachusetts, I’m gonna hear about this I’m sure, all I know is I didn’t vote for it, these r the things why we get laughed at by the rest of country, and there laughing at me and you for putting up with this nonsense not the politics ugh

        1. 18 wheelers drive down my road and there are people that don’t like it but we’re not about to vote out the noise and shaking that occurs when they drive down street , it’s just not me.

          1. different subject. I didn’t move to where there are 18 wheelers b/c I didn’t want to hear them. If I moved to where they are, then that’s my problem.

            1. But they’ve already have tried to inconvenience the 18 wheelers by trying to have no 18 wheelers, so after these people moved here there trying to do this, very selfish 🙂

                1. anyone else is of course welcome to pull out their soapbox on that site too – I just figured charlie and I seem to be the ones who enjoy debate most 🙂

        2. I didn’t say I’d vote them out, Charlie, just that they drive me nuts. I think the vote is extreme esp when a senior citizen might rely on a blower to do the work he/she can no longer rake

        3. One last comment and I’m back to work……we have lost a degree of common courtesy. We do not mow our lawn, weed whack or do anything that makes noise if a neighbor is having a party in their yard. I was brought up that way. I find that doesn’t enter into the mind of many any more so does our lack of respect force regulation? Charlie, we need to have a conversation somewhere else. I like talking to you!

    1. That’s a great hospital, I spent a week there once. I did a little science experiment with gravity and basketball hoop that didn’t go so well. 🙂

  22. NWS Skywarn Severe Weather Coord Message #2:

    Based on Satellite imagery and computer model trends, conditions are expected to clear out over the area to allow for sufficient heating and destablization with temperatures going into the 70s to possibly 80 degrees. Wind fields should be strong enough to support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in a continuous squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms or as one or two short lines of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats with heavy downpours and urban and poor drainage flooding also possible. The greatest threat for severe weather remains in Southwest New Hampshire and Western Massachusetts from the Worcester area west and in Northern Connecticut through Hartford and Tolland Counties. The timeframe of severe weather appears to be after 4 PM this afternoon. SPC and NWS Taunton are in agreement on a slight risk for severe weather for late Wednesday Afternoon into Wednesday evening for this area.

    Further east, the loss of daytime heating should mitigate the overall threat but an isolated strong or severe thunderstorm could occur in these areas. The overall threat in the east, however, is much less due to coastal influence and the timing of the front past peak heating.

    Current caveats to the severe weather potential remain and include the amount of cooling aloft, degree of heating and destablization if clearing doesn’t occur by midday/early afternoon and the timing of the cold front into the area. This will be monitored throughout the day today.

  23. I am kind of thinking the same thing when throwing the numbers out last night. I think for most places in SNE thunderstorm index is at a 1 since I am not expecting severe storms but rather garden variety thunderstorms. Areas west of Springfield I am giving a 2 since that seems to have the best shot at seeing a couple strong to maybe even a severe thunderstorm pop up. I don’t see an upgrade for that area with the 2 but it might have to be downgraded if the clouds hang tough. You could see the front near the great lakes and there is clear skies ahead of it but SNE still socked in the clouds which is a good thing if you don’t like thunderstorms. Going to be watching the clearing line closely.

  25. Still socked in clouds near Hartford and sitting at 65. But the clearing has now reached the Hudson Valley in eastern NY and is moving east. I think we start to break out in the sun and heat up after lunch. Good destabilization and timing of the front should give us a decent line of storms in the CT valley later this afternoon. I think they will just totally get eaten up and fizzle out though as they approach Boston. Too much marine air, clouds hanging on too long, timing too late in the day….

  26. Mark I agree with you as the front moves further east the activity should start to go down with the marine influence providing a stable environment. You could see where the front near the Great Lakes and with the clear skies there the thunderstorms should grow. When they get here to SNE the key will be the clouds because if they hang tough and we don’t get the heating that line should start to diminish as it approaches SNE.

  27. NWS Albany now talking about possible supercell development for eastern NY and western NE…

    THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE…
    COMBINED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS…WILL RESULT IN
    THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY QUICKLY BECOME
    SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
    SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE…WHICH CAN RESULT IN HAIL THE
    SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AS WELL AS WINDS GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 60 AND
    PERHAPS 70 MPH.

    THE TIME FRAME FOR WHEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WILL
    GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 PM TO 7 PM. THE THREAT WILL FIRST DEVELOP
    ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS…MIGRATING TO SOUTHERN AND
    EASTERN AREAS LATER

    1. does supercell lead to tornadoes or microbursts? or both? And do you have any idea how far west. I have family in Amherst and of Uxbridge (although I suspect that is too far east)

      1. Vicki, yes, supercell storms can generate microburts and tornadoes but I don’t think we need to worry about that in SNE today, even if a few severe storms make it here. Amherst has a better chance of seeing a strong to severe storm than Uxbridge. In fact, the Severe T-Storm Watch box now includes much of west/central MA (inc. Amherst) and NW and north central CT.

        1. Thanks Mark – I’ll keep an eye out for that area specifically and let my niece know if there’s any concern

  28. This has to be the best (or scariest) news story of the day. The city of Lynn overspent it’s snow budget for last winter. Quote below………..

    But the Department of Public Works (DPW) ended up overspending by $138,165. The grand total ostensibly spent on snow removal for this winter wound up being $923,327. That’s well above the $785,162 the city had allocated.

    1. If I lived in Lynn, I’d be asking for a detailed line item report that gave information of cost by snowfall, including regular and overtime hours put in on each event. Of course, being that this is tax…..er….I mean, Massachusetts, that wont happen.

      1. Just imagine if they did snow removal like Chicago or Detroit or any other snowy city where they actually plow the snow and remove every bit of it, Ive seen it with my own eyes how a place like Chicago removes every last bit of there snow, it’s amazing how clear and clean they get it and don’t leave piles everywhere, they even remove piles from parking lots so they don’t take up parking spaces. 🙂

        1. Charlie any of the states to our north do a remarkable job too but they get a lot more and that makes a difference. How does Chicago’s snow total compare to ours? Same?

          1. looks to be about the same in both areas – of course we differ dramatically from town to town and year to year in MA

            1. Nh might be fine but I’ve seen in more than just a few times that Mass has the worst snow removal in country, trust me I’m not happy about it either 🙂 I’d rather be saying this state is the best at everything

          2. There’s no where around here that does snow removal around here like Chicago or other snow cities, me and tk had this conversation a while back and we’ve agreed on and he said the reason why we have some of the worst snow removal in the country is bc this is the way they have been doing it the last 100 yrs, why change now haha 🙂 its nauseating 🙂

              1. They not only plow, they take it away, in most parking lots in suburbs and in city they take the snow away so there are no snow piles melting till Mar or April 🙂

  29. Latest discussions from the storm prediction center looks like a severe thunderstorm watch will be posted for parts of Vermont. It looks like a line of thunderstorms will develop and weaken as they approach SNE due to the wind of the wather providing a stable airmass.

  30. Severe Thunderstorm Watch now up for western parts of SNE. I don’t see that watch being extended eastward. No changes with the thunderstorm index from earlier as of now.

  31. Bright and sunny now in Sudbury. Wonder if the sun at this hour will de-stabilize the air. Not sure what direction the wind is coming from – looks pretty calm now.

  32. The severe thunderstorm warnings in the watch box across Northern NY and Northern Vermont. Will see if anything pops in the southern part of the watch box but as of now the nasty storms are up to the north.

    1. I’ve noticed on the radar some storms trying to flare up overthe Catskills, Hudson Valley, and southern VT but as they slide east towards CT, western, MA, and southern NH, they almost immediately fizzle out. I’m thinking the clouds just hung on too long today to significantly destabilize the atmosphere. Even here near Hartford, there are some blue patches in the sky but it is still mostly cloudy.

    1. hahahaha – you do a great job hiding that twin 🙂 One thing about me is (not sure if good or bad), as I always say, I ‘yam whats I ‘yam……………like popeye……..and if nothing else you never have to guess what I’m thinking !!!

  34. Well, you can see where the cold front is now…it’s sunny and pushing 80 now in Albany, temp has dropped to 59 in Syracuse behind the line of storms.

    1. I’ve been out on the deck reading – it is gorgeous. Light breeze, humidity less sun out with clouds…………….very nice

  36. On radar, that looks like quite a cell just northeast of Keene, NH….but it’s doesn’t have any warnings on it.

      1. Well…..that line seems to be solidifying a bit in western Mass…however, I think the combination of its westerly movement and more stable air lying to its east should keep the line from sliding too much to the south and also should eventually start to weaken the cells.

  37. Over the next hour the storms will fizzle, theyve already starting to rain themselves out,

  38. 815 PM UPDATE…

    HAVE EXPANDED THE SVR TSTM WTCH TIL 10 PM AND AREAL EXTENT
    EASTWARD INTO WORCESTER COUNTY…NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
    HILLSBORO COUNTY OF SOUTHWEST NH. REASONING IS A MESO COLD POOL
    HAS DEVELOPED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
    CONVECTION EASTWARD AS WELL AS DURATION. STORMS ARE MINI
    SUPERCELLS WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL ROTATION…ALBEIT WEAK
    ROTATION. SFC DEW PTS IN THE L60S CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
    ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SFC TEMPS NEAR 70 COMBINED WITH H5
    TEMPS OF -16C. THESE PARAMETERS ARE YIELDING ML CAPES ON THE ORDER
    OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWEST MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH ALONG WITH DEEP
    LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND
    6.5C/KM. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN STRONG TO PERHAPS SVR TSTMS TIL 10 PM
    ACROSS NORTHWEST-CENTRAL MA INTO SOUTHWEST NH.

    THE MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG
    WITH LARGE HAIL. STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER 10 PM.

    Line still looks impressive on doppler – wonder if it will weaken as it comes east.

    1. Winds are out of the southwest but not that strong. I seem to remember from years before that early in the summer season, if the winds were out of the south that could cut down the strength of thunderstorms. But perhaps other factors are in play tonight and the south winds aren’t that strong.

        1. The warning is following that cell too. You are right rainshine. It’s holding together

  39. Just saw Matt Noyes – these storms are producing a lot of lightning – some communities well to the east can see lightning on the western horizon. Matt thinks the storms will weaken as they move east and maybe break up as they approach the coast. But we could still get lightning and rain around here. I can’t see any lightning from our window. Well, unless anything important comes up, I am going to call it a night. Have a good night, all!

    2. He is right. I am in Coventry, CT – about 20 miles east of Hartford (not even close to the storms) and the whole northern sky has been lighting up for the past hour.

      1. Still can’t see any lightning. 🙁 Too many trees in the way. Lightning must be low on the horizon.

  42. It’s a long ways out, but the EURO continues to maintain some consistency towards the beginning of Memorial Day Weekend. This morning’s take on the 0z run would feature, what I think would be, record breaking heat approaching New England. The projected ridge is strong and the 850 temps are eye-opening (low to even some mid 20s Celcius) over the Great Lakes region. New England has mid teen 850 temps, which is good for summer warmth as well.

  43. Good morning and what a lovely day. Temp is 54.7 and RH is 63. We lost power for some odd reason around 2 this morning but it came back almost immediately after a few surges 🙁 No storms around at the time that I could hear or see.

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