The Week Ahead

7:18AM

A front crossing the region today will get bogged down as upper level low pressure drops in and spins around for a few days, holding unsettled weather in the area into midweek, similar to the pattern we have seen a few times during this month.

Later this week, this upper low will lift out and a more west to east flow will take over, with a more typical summertime pattern resulting.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms developing later this morning and afternoon, some with heavy rain. High 70-75, upper 60s some coastal areas. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely before midnight, less numerous after midnight. Low 58-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of drizzle and showers. High 65-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 58. High 72.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 59. High 77.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. PM thunderstorms. Low 62. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 87.

100 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK. Very impressive radar this morning showing a ton of lightning with these storms.

    1. hehehe – it’s because six months from today is Christmas!!! Sorry…..my family is used to me watching this date. Last night I announced Santa would arrive in six months 🙂

  2. Back to being serious….that line does look very impressive and also seems to be lifting northeast somewhat. I have a phone conference from 9-11:30 – not wanting to be plugged into a phone sitting at a computer in a window if they arrive.

  3. Very humid here in boston and the sun has been out. I was expecting a washout from start to finish.

    1. must feel very humid if there is sun. Feels very humid with solid cloud cover. I could feel the humidity building last night late when I was sitting on the porch.

  4. I don’t see any severe thunderstorm warnings right now but would not be surprised if a lot of lightning is happening with these storms.

    1. I thought they appeared to be falling apart a bit but now seem to be regaining some of that.

  5. As North said, it is a very impressive radar. Cloudy here in Sudbury – looks like we’re in for a lot of rain. End of week some heat returns. Oh, well. It is summer, after all! 🙂

    1. The preview show I just had was impressive but was a quick mover. I am hoping the line in CT weakens as it moves east but I think that probably won’t happen.

      1. It is a good thing these storms keep moving – if they slow down or start training there could be flooding problems. Can’t tell if these storms will weaken.

      2. The storm in southeastern CT in New London County is the most impressive of the line.
        Storm heading east and will be affecting southern parts of Rhode Island. These storms are moving a good clip
        unlike the ones on Friday.

  6. This does not usually happen to have a line of storms to come through this strong during this time of the day. Be interesting to see if more stuff fires this afternoon behind this line.

  7. hearing thunder here now – 15 min left to this part of phone conf and hoping it ends before storm gets bad – although it looks much weaker than it did

    1. hearing thunder here too. For some reason, air feels much cooler. Must be because of rain-cooled air from all the rain around, ‘though it isn’t raining here – yet.

  8. Very impressive storm here. House shook a few times. One huge crack so suspect something very closeby was hit

  9. Has been pouring last 15 mins. or w/some gusts of wind. But thunder and lightning has been frequent. Thunder pretty loud, too.

  10. JJ. What is your rating criteria. I need to copy and save it

    Pretty much past here now. Was a 45 minute process tho

  11. Hi Vicki…
    1. Thunderstorms that remain below severe levels
    2. Thunderstorms with some severe weather but nothing widespread
    3. Thunderstorms with widespread severe weather
    4. Thunderstorms with widespread severe weather with the chance of isolated tornadoes.

    1. sorry for all the questions – what do you consider severe to mean? Would loud and fairly constant cloud to ground be severe if there is no damage? Does rain intensity come into play? I PROMISE to copy and keep this so I don’t ask again. The only problem is I’ll have to remember WHERE I kept it 😀

      Thank you very much for such a quick reply!

      1. I go by what the criteria is for severe meaning hail 1 inch in diamater or winds of at least 58 mph.
        Continous cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and wind gusts below 58 to me is a strong thunderstorm.
        Even if there is no warning with a thunderstorm the threat should be taken seriously. I just read something of people
        injured on a golf course due to lightning in North Stonington, CT.

  12. We have having more thunder – this time rumbles and not crashes and constant lightening and rain moderate – .58 rain as of now

  13. Looks as if Hartford just had a moderate storm. Hopefully heavy rain missed Manchester CT. They don’t need more

    1. Vicki – we had another dose of torrential rain this morning with frequent cloud to ground lightning but it moved through very quickly, unlike Friday’s storm. We’ve had the sun out for the past hour, which I’m sure will only further fuel that next line of storms coming at us…. It’s just one after another!

  14. Thanks JJ. I emailed it to myself and stored it in my weather folder.

    If I am understaning correctly do nearly all Tstorms fall into the 1 category. I am not sure I’ve ever seen over 1 in diameter hail. That’s pretty big. And only rarely are winds 58 or greater.

    1. the national weather service updated there version of severe thunderstorms last year . it use to be quarter size i believe.

      those storms this morning were intense. I woke up to them. It looked like it was 4am instead of 8. and there was a lot of lightning . The line of showers and thunderstorms out across western mass looks well organized and i believe that is the actual cold front boundry tell me if I am wrong though. right now I actually see some sun and a patch of blue outside my window.

  15. According to doppler there is still a lot of rain to go through. Rain coming up from south. We are still hearing occasional thunder. Earlier we had a real heavy downpour.

  16. Right now there are breaks in the clouds to the west of New England. If those breaks start advancing to the east that could begin the process of once again destablizing the atmosphere. Some shower activity in Upstate NY so will see how that plays out as it advacnes toward New England.

  17. .75 rain so far. Still would have thought more. It was heavy for a long period. Quiet now with light to mod rain.

    1. Looks to be what is now Debby looking at all of the images back to 24 hours. Just a few days ago though it had it going into Houston this week, so time will tell.

      1. – I heard this morning that they had expected Debby to head west and now are thinking east toward FL but that they really do not know since it’s stalled.

    2. That’s a pretty impressive looking tropical system sitting south of Long Island on the 5th. Wow. Thanks for the link.

      1. Just a quick follow up. Noticing quite a big spread in location from the 0600 and 1200 models on Wundermaps.

  18. Thanks, Shreedhar for the info.!

    Vicki, looks like Debby or her remnants could affect us! Your cousin, my sister, lol!

    Anyway, my predictions back to last winter saying this summer would be hot and dry – not so much! Not at this point, anyway. Anything can change, but I think the summer pattern looks to be a bit cooler and wetter than average w/some brief heat waves thrown in. Haven’t looked at any predictions for the rest of the summer; just my guessing. I won’t even try to predict regarding tropical systems.

  19. So I have a question. Say Debby makes landfall somewhere on the west coast of Florida then becomes just a plain old rainstorm over land with no tropical center. Then, some of the energy emerges into the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida and strengthens into a tropical system. Does it keep the name Debby, or would it be called Ernesto?

    BTW, most models do project this to happen, at least coming off the east coast of Florida. Strength and path are the big questions.

    1. Good question – my immediate reaction was to say same name since it’s the same system but I really have no idea.

    2. I think the name will stay the same. I think the name changes only if a tropical system moves from the Atlantic to the Pacific or vice-versa.

      1. Isnt’t that what happened with Andrew? Hit south FL then came out into the gulf as the same name and hit somewhere near LA

        1. I tried to look that up and I don’t think Andrew did that. But I did find this:

          Hurricane Donna–Had a very erratic path in the summer of 1960 that started in the Caribbean, then went to the Florida Keys, then into the Gulf of Mexico, where it would make a turn to the north and make a second landfall over Florida at Fort Myers. It continued northeastward across the Florida Peninsula, and moved back out into the Atlantic near Daytona Beach. Not done yet, Donna headed up the East Coast, and made another landfall at Topsail Island, North Carolina. It then finished its trip by heading into New England, and a final landfall across Long Island. At its peak, Donna had wind gusts ranging between 175 and 200 mph, a minimum central pressure of 27.46 inches, and a 13 foot storm surge. Its total damage cost was over one billion 1960 United States dollars while Donna left 50 people dead.

          1. I checked Hugo too because I knew it reached Charlotte NC. But with all it’s weakening along its path it never weakened enough to fit the question.

    3. it will keep the name unless it looses tropical storm status or depression status for more than 2 or 3 days. it can go from the gulf to the atlantic or atlantic to the gulf. this is just what i was told when i asked my grandfather.

  20. Line with a warning attached just moving from NY to Stockbridge. Hmmmm. Reminds me of a song but from Boston to Stockbridge. 😉

    1. Vicki there also seems to be another line trying to form west of that (from the Coobleskill area down to Oneonta).

  21. Sun just came out here in Walpole. I wonder if it will intensify that line as it comes through in the next few hours

    1. Trying to come out here. Sorry Philip but I’m hoping for bookend storms for the day. This mornings although loud wasn’t damaging and lasted a very long time so not too bad. We have had .89 rain for the day

  22. looking at a few models. the upper level low over us right now and an area of high pressure across the southern plains is making Debbi move really slow and is keeping Debbi from moving into texas as well as moving right on up the coast right away.
    put this is disturbing to see reminds you of something that happened last year. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ check the gfs at 168 hours. look at its location and its future direction

    1. Can’t tell what it does between hour 240-252, but looks to go right over us. Picks up some forward speed too as it gets out over the gulf stream

  23. My best friend’s wedding is the weekend of July 7th on the Cape, and Debby is not on the guest list 👿

    1. :). My husbands and my first date was 7-7-77. He surprised me with tickets to the Cohasset music circus (is that the right name) to aww my favorite singer at the time Mac Davis. Suspect no one has heard of him but you have all probably heard of his then unknown opening act – Dolly Parton

      1. Vicki, would that have been the South Shore Music Circus in Cohasset? Yes, I remember Mac Davis and Dolly Parton. 🙂

        7-7-77 was certainly a lucky day for you! 🙂

        1. Vicki, was Dolly Parton all that “unknown” in 1977? I always thought she started out in the late 1960’s. ❓

          1. Pretty much unknown – Especially as she was opening for a sort of performer. My husband and I left thinking she would definitely go far.

        2. Wow I didn’t think anyone would remember mac Davis. And yes that’s exactly where it was

  24. Check out the 12Z EURO frame by frame under Map Type, Winds (kts), as Debby comes off the coast of FL and strenghens in the Altantic and slowly turns up the coast. Note the wind direction and steering currents as it interacts with a huge high pressure area over the open Atlantic to the east.

    1. Do you have a link. Mi still have trouble finding theses things.:(

      Wind picking up here but sun is still in and out

  25. Pete Bouchard on his 4:00 pm newscast said that Debby could jump over to the east coast of Florida. He doesn’t think she will get us directly, but he did say that she needs to be watched closely. It appears that any effects would be felt around July 4th.

    Let us hope there is no repeat of July 4, 1978. IIRC we received widespread 1″+ of all-day rains and the high at Logan was 65 degrees. I remember that day fairly well, and IIRC the Pops Concert went on as scheduled, but fireworks did not go off well, if at all. I do not believe it was anything tropical, just a plain noreaster.

    Arthur Fiedler was the Pops conductor for the young ones here. 😉

    Now back to Debby…I am suddenly not having a good feeling for next week. We will see.

    1. Oddly when I heard the report this morning on the today show I didn’t have a good feeling either. It seems Acemaster and rainshine didn’t either but I don’t mean to put words in their mouths !

    1. Vicki, I will take credit as long as those storms don’t flare up again. 😉

      I am also working on wishing away that HHH crap for this weekend, lol. 🙂

      1. Well then I will be your biggest cheerleader – I can say that now because the storms are no more but might not have said it an hour or so ago 🙂

    1. As do. My husband and family used to come home by ship for,home leave when they were living in Sweden. He has some interesting stories of crossing the Atlantic during major storms.

      1. I dont want to come back with a storm story, just a good time story. Last time i went to bermuda we had some rain, but not a washout.

        1. I would feel the same. Bermuda is a lot closer than england and now there is all sorts of equipment that predicts what no one could see in the 1950s

    2. My first cruise to Bermuda was in 1996 and we were delayed sailing by one day out of Boston due to Hurricane Edouard. That was one heck of a rocky ride to Bermuda (personally I loved every minute). The Celebrity Zenith was in port with us in St. George and she had some pretty good damage from her trip to Bermuda from NY. Lots of cruisers chose to fly home once they got to Bermuda because they were sick or just too damn petrified to get back on the ship. I have faith that you will not have a similar story for your trip on the 6th John.

  26. 2 more thunderstorms today, one embedded within a 3 hr period of heavy rain this morning. Then, in this pattern, when the sun came out, it cooked up a strong one that hit us about 30 minutes ago. I’m rather thunderstormed out !

    Interesting to read above regarding the tropical storm. We bought a data plan for this trip and I dont want to use a lot of it up on satellite pictures and weather models, so, I’m not looking at them currently. Already the D storm before July 1st, wow.

    Assuming we’ll see more towering cumulus tomorrow and a shot at another thunderstorm. For now, the western horizon is clear, and off to enjoy the evening.

    1. Tom have a wonderful evening. And please do not respond but just know Philip is wIshing away more storms and we hope you enjoy your trip.

    1. I thought it hit the Bahamas then FL and then Louisiana But did it ever weaken to below TS strength?

  27. I believe Andrew was during an El Nino year and that season did not have many named storms but that season proved it only takes one storm to make landfall in the U.S. to make it a bad season.
    Debby is so disorganized but will be remembered for the big rain totals and tornadoes it produced. Close to two dozen which is impressive for a tropical storm.

    1. It is trapped between an area of high pressure over texas/southern plains and the upper level low over us. It is barely moving. It is moving at 3 to 5 mph all day. the amount of time it has been there has allowed the 45 mph winds to kick up the surf just like a nor easter would if it was stuck in a block. It would be much less destructive if it was not being blocked

  28. Hopefully it continues to weaken and the land will rip it a part since tropical systems don’t like land interaction.
    The updated drought monitor for the state of Florida is going to look different.

  29. With that upper level low nearby could see more afternoon showers and storms. Don’t expect severe storms so only level 1 thunderstorm activity. Summer heat and humidity return late week into the weekend.

  30. I haven’t been posting lately as I have been in Montreal. Anyways I have been watching that tropical system, the GFS now brings it OTS while the 00z euro has a 961 mb low near the benchmark.

    1. Even on the Euro though, it is still a miss and out to sea well SE of Nantucket. We would not see any effects in SNE in terms of wind or precip, just swells. Closest approach on the Euro is Monday, July 2. Still bears watching though – these tropical systems can have a mind of their own.

  31. The GFS had the right idea all along bringing Debby into Florida while the EURO was taking it to the west towards Texas. Then the EURO finally came around to the GFS. I favor the GFS at this time.

  32. Some heavy showers along with some T-Storms training through the South Shore right now. Just had a heavy downpour here. Some thunder but not much lightning (keeping my fingers crossed on this as I did not disconnect my antennas this morning and can’t get home for a bit).

  33. Sorry for the delay. About to update!

    Hearing thunder from a small cell that just popped up north of Boston and moved SE. Looks a tad stormy about the area! Not everyone of course.

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