10:20PM
A strong disturbance will move into the region Thursday and Thursday night. First, its warm front will slide into New England from the southwest, with a thunderstorm potential ahead of it. This first threat will favor areas along and north of the Mass Turnpike in northern MA and southern NH, but with some limited instability, activity may weaken as it moves eastward. The timing for this threat is between dawn and the end of the morning. Right now, this threat appears to be the weakest of the several upcoming.
The second round comes in the form of clusters of storms that are expected to form near and south of the warm front as it lifts to the north across the region. The most likely areas for these storms are near and south of the Mass Pike, including Rhode Island. Damaging winds, large hail, flash flooding, and even isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out with these storms, though the tornado potential is highest in areas to the west (western MA, western CT, and eastern NY). This round of potential severe weather can occur any time from early afternoon to early evening.
The third round of threatening weather is expected to occur during a 6-hour window from 9PM Thursday to 3AM Friday across all of the region, with the highest potential in central and southern portions of eastern MA through RI. The main threat with numerous storms moving east and northeast across the forecast area will be damaging winds, with a secondary threat being flash flooding if storms train (develop over the same areas for an extended period of time).
I didn’t mention lightning in any of these threats, but frankly that’s because all thunderstorms produce lightning and all cloud-to-ground lightning is dangerous. Some of these storms, especially in rounds 2 and 3, can produce frequent lightning.
What happens beyond this?
We stay unsettled Friday into the weekend as the frontal boundary remains in the area. The severe weather potential is less on Friday but cannot be completely ruled out, especially from southern MA through RI. Otherwise, look for fairly numerous showers and storms over the region Friday. Saturday and Sunday, the current expectations are that things will shift southward with time, but the boundary will still be close enough to provide the threat of showers and a few thunderstorms.
Early next week looks nicer, but that may not last too long…
Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…
OVERNIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 60-65. Wind light variable to S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly north of the Mass Pike in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon, with highest potential for severe storms along and south of the Mass Pike. Becoming very humid. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s, warmest southwest of Boston. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH. Strong, gusty winds near some thunderstorms.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, some storms possibly severe. Lows around 70. Very humid. Wind SW 5-15 MPH. Strong winds possible near storms.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms most numerous in the morning, more scattered in the afternoon. Humid. Highs in the 70s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 62. High 76.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 77.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 81.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 63. High 83.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 80.
Thanks TK.
Could be a very interesting day tomorrow.
JJ, do you think we could see a 3 here in southeast New England with the action tomorrow night?
Hey North…. I think there is a real possiblity of level 3 activity in that part of SNE tomorrow night.
I also think there is the possiblity of level 4 activity which is the highest on the 1-4 thunderstorm index for areas of
west of the CT River Valley so there is the POTENTIAL for an isolated tornado.
Here is a breakdown of the thunderstorm index
1. Non severe storms
2. Some severe weather
3. Widespread severe weather
4. Widespread severe weather with the threat of tornadoes.
Thanks JJ. What do you think of the area out by Granby in CT, would that be in your area that has a 4. It is just west of the CT River. My in-laws live out there in the hills and they go to sleep pretty earlier. I may have to keep my eye on things for them and call them if I see something threatening for them tomorrow night.
For that area it looks right now anytime after 2pm be on the lookout.
Western CT and MA look to be the areas right now with the best shot at seeing an isolated tornado
so that is my 4 area. Hopefully this threat does not materialize.
Ok, thanks again. Talk to you tomorrow. I hope it does not materialize too.
TK, I am hoping that things don’t get too nasty, but like AceMaster said when you are worried, we get worried too 🙂 . You are usually more on the conservative side!
2 of my most trusted colleagues are as worried as I am. But worry does not make potential become reality. We’ll have to see what mother nature has in store for us.
Thanks TK. We can all keep each other posted real time tomorrow night. I hope Hadi stays safe with his family in the Poconos too.
Thanks TK for keeping us posted!
Looking at everything no changes made from last night.
Thunderstorm Index a 4 for areas west of CT River Valley because that is where I think the best chance is for an isolated tornado. A 3 for areas east of the CT River Valley. I would expect a watch to be posted sometime today and I would not be surprised to see a tornado watch for the western parts of SNE. Will see if the clouds hang tough and not allow the sun to come out which will further destablize the atmosphere.
I look forward to hearing everyone’s thoughts and comments on what Could be a busy late afternoon and part of the overnight.
Kinda surprised no watches have been issued yet. At least a special weather statement to alert people and make them aware that severe weather is a very real possibility and to plan accordingly. With so much certainty even late yesterday I would think it would be a no-brainer.
Thanks North!! We are preparing as we might see tornados. Will try to take video if it’s safe enough.
Stay safe, Hadi!
Hadi stay safe out there and look forward to hearing your comments throughout this event as well as the other great bloggers we have here.
AceMaster I think later today you will see special weather statements around SNE. I know this happened last Wednesday before the severe thunderstorm watch was issued. Late afternoon into part of the overnight looks to be the time frame of interest. My concern that could blow this forecast is if the clouds hang tough. I would be happy to be wrong with this one.
Thanks JJ. I was only surprised cuz I remembered a day last week where there were watches posted all day for that evening and night.
My knowledge of weather from a technical aspect is minimal at best so correct me if I am wrong. From what I understand, there will be several “disturbances” riding along and south of the warm front which is pushing through this morning that will stall out. Wouldn’t there be lots of cloud cover with a warm front being in the area making today mostly cloudy anyways? Is the instability to create these storms coming from another source?
Thanks, TK.
And thanks, JJ, too.
Sky looks kind of weird this morning – like something might be going on later. I really hope it stays cloudy all day, but in my opinion, at this time of year, it’s kind of hard to keep the sun in. Also, I’m not surprised at the threat of a possible severe event – we have been pretty lucky so far this season, w/the exception of some strong storms that the North Shore and Boston area experienced lately. I am just hoping that nothing bad materializes.
Question: with the possibility of severe weather overnight, will there be any TV mets. on then? In the past, when we’ve had severe weather in the middle of the night, there were no TV mets. on – just warnings from the NWS.
Good morning and just finished reading all of the comments – thank you TK and thank you JJ!
The clouds here are solid. Are those the clouds you mentioned hanging tough that might decrease the severity, JJ? I see the systems moving into western MA and traveling SE are weakening through MA but not so much through CT.
I have an appointment this afternoon from 3:45 to 5:45 and am thinking of postponing it since it is easily postponable. Is that the time frame for round 2? I don’t mind the appointment so much but do not really want to be driving if there is a serious threat.
Torrential rain and thunder here in PA.
I saw that this morning. Hopefully that round was not too bad.
These showers and embedded thunder are not going to reach severe levels. We get a break midday and the thinking is that is when some sun could break out before the more important round affects SNE late this afternoon and could go into part of the overnight. I have seen this in the past where if it stays cloudy that lessens the severe threat but this could be a case where there are strong dynamics in play that even without the sunshine we could still get strong to severe storms. It is a waiting game to see what happens.
Of not the Tor Con the weather channel uses has a 4 out of 10 chance of tornado for western Mass and western CT. The storm prediction center will issue an update on this severe threat just before 9AM and I will be interested to read what they have to say.
Rain in Framingham – well needed I might add. Nothing severe attached to it. Acemaster, I had wondered about cloud cover with three systems and where the energy would come from too – especially with the last system potentially being the most severe. And rainshine, great question about the mets on TV. I love storms but NOT at night. You can’t see anything. It’s a sort of helpless feeling. I’m keeping my phone and ipad well charged in case we do lose power and I need either one for the radar.
That is a good idea to charge your phone. I know I am going to be doing that as well as get the flashlights ready just in case. I hope not to lose power like last year with Irene and October Noreaster.
The latest radar shows the precipitation breaking apart and drying up with the lower half heading south, completely missing Boston. Wouldn’t be surprise to see some sun in the Brighton area later this morning. Dewpt’s currently at 62 and rising. Everyone stay safe today and tonight!!!
Thanks Shotime and you do the same.
anyone seeing what has already flared up in ny state and a thunderstorm is right over yonkers NY and north of the Bronx
My Dad was from Yonkers, and I still have family there. My cousin is Captain of the Yonkers Fire Dept. Hopefully, it’s not a damaging storm!
There were no severe thunderstorm warnings with that line as it came through. That is an area to watch later
today as the storm prediction center is mentioning southeastern NY and adjacent areas could see a couple of
tornadoes.
Thanks for that info, JJ.
That is the appitizer before the main course later this afternoon and this evening. It looks like a little squall line developed around the NYC area.
I see BZ has a graphic with Tornado Threat Possible title. What took the mets this long? This morning I listened to Dylan on 7 and she said very little about first two events and then possible severe for third but no more than that. My daughter – who I had warned last night so specifically listened for how severe it would be – said BZ said the same.
I don’t quite understand why the stations would wait until people have seen the morning weather and headed to work to make the announcement.
I’m with you Vicki. If this were winter and we were waiting for a blizzard, they would have had headlines up on Monday, lol
AceMaster you were talking about special weather statements earlier and the NWS out of Albany issued one about hour ago. The language they use is pretty strong and I have not read a statement like that in quite a while.
weather.gov
National Weather Service
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code
Special Weather Statement
——————————————————————————–
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-261800-
NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-
SOUTHERN FULTON-MONTGOMERY-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-SCHOHARIE-WESTERN SCHENECTADY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA-WESTERN ALBANY-
EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER-EASTERN RENSSELAER-
WESTERN GREENE-EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-
WESTERN ULSTER-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS-
NORTHERN FULTON-SOUTHEAST WARREN-SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-BENNINGTON-
WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TORRINGTON…OAKVILLE…NEW MILFORD…
TERRYVILLE…PITTSFIELD…NORTH ADAMS…GREAT BARRINGTON…LEE…
LENOX…HOUSATONIC…ATWELL…BIG MOOSE…EAGLE BAY…MCKEEVER…
NOBLEBORO…NORTHWOOD…OLD FORGE…SPECULATOR…ILION…
HERKIMER…LITTLE FALLS…MOHAWK…FRANKFORT…DOLGEVILLE…
GLOVERSVILLE…JOHNSTOWN…AMSTERDAM…WELLSVILLE…
SARATOGA SPRINGS…WARRENSBURG…WHITEHALL…GRANVILLE…
COBLESKILL…MIDDLEBURGH…DELANSON…ESPERANCE…DUANESBURG…
SCHENECTADY…ROTTERDAM…BALLSTON SPA…MECHANICVILLE…
WATERFORD…ALTAMONT…ALBANY…TROY…HOOSICK FALLS…HUNTER…
TANNERSVILLE…WINDHAM…CATSKILL…COXSACKIE…ATHENS…CAIRO…
JEFFERSON HEIGHTS…HUDSON…CHATHAM…SUNDOWN…ELLENVILLE…
WOODSTOCK…WEST HURLEY…KERHONKSON…NAPANOCH…PHOENICIA…
KINGSTON…NEW PALTZ…POUGHKEEPSIE…BEACON…ARLINGTON…
PAWLING…DOVER PLAINS…MILLBROOK…PINE PLAINS…AMENIA…
MILLERTON…NORTHVILLE…MAYFIELD…GLENS FALLS…
WEST GLENS FALLS…HUDSON FALLS…FORT EDWARD…CAMBRIDGE…
GREENWICH…BENNINGTON…JACKSONVILLE…NEWFANE…BRATTLEBORO…
WEST BRATTLEBORO…BELLOWS FALLS
1002 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY
THERE IS A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS…LARGE HAIL AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE AREA WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION…ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIME FRAME FOR WHEN THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
WILL BE FROM AROUND 2 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON…ESPECIALLY FROM THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP…ALONG WITH HUMIDITY SURGING NORTHWARD
INTO THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER DEVELOPING TODAY
The use of the word “outbreak” right off the bat is what alarms me. It seems thats the area where the warm front passes enough to allow some of that hot humid air to get in and destabilize the atmosphere. Hopefully today will not be a repeat of the 1989 outbreak but some of those same areas look to be under the gun. I hope this isnt as bad as forecasted but the wording in that special weather statement like JJ said is alarming.
I want a light show tonight give me the popcorn,candy and soda . My parents got a second computer because i am going to college. and its in the next room over. There are three rooms on the up stairs. my bedroom,my brothers bed room and then what we call the yellow room. the yellow room has a large window over looking the marsh and pool area and that is where the computer is. we also have another one in the den down stairs. So I know where I am going to be tonight not to mention a bed that can be turned into a couch.
i have a feeling the out break will happen across the western half of the state then dye as it heads east. The lack of sun right now has make me skeptical of any widespread severe weather to effect us.
Not sure if the heating of the sun is going to be a big player in today’s storm, which is very unusual for sure!
AceMaster here is another special weather statement this one covering a good chunk of SNE. Reading both of these it just feels that pieces maybe coming together for a good size outbreak of severe weather.
weather.gov
National Weather Service
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code
Special Weather Statement
——————————————————————————–
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1051 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-261700-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
VERNON…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…CHARLEMONT…GREENFIELD…
ORANGE…BARRE…FITCHBURG…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…
GLOUCESTER…CHESTERFIELD…BLANDFORD…AMHERST…NORTHAMPTON…
SPRINGFIELD…MILFORD…WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…
CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY…TAUNTON…BROCKTON…PLYMOUTH…
FALL RIVER…NEW BEDFORD…MATTAPOISETT…CHATHAM…FALMOUTH…
PROVINCETOWN…VINEYARD HAVEN…NANTUCKET…AYER…JAFFREY…
KEENE…MANCHESTER…NASHUA…PETERBOROUGH…WEARE…FOSTER…
SMITHFIELD…PROVIDENCE…WEST GREENWICH…WARWICK…BRISTOL…
NARRAGANSETT…WESTERLY…NEWPORT…BLOCK ISLAND
1051 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT…
THERE IS A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL…AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT IS ACROSS WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT…ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE REGION HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER…ESPECIALLY FROM 4 PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE AWARE OF POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING WEATHER DEVELOPING TODAY
Thanks for the info JJ. I did say I wanted Special Weather Statements! 🙂
Your welcome AceMaster. The next thing to look for is a mesoscale discussions from the Storm Prediction Center which they issue prior to a watch. At this point I would be shocked if there is not some sort of watch over SNE.
This is from NJ..
http://www.governor.ny.gov/press/07252012-urges-people-to-prepare-for-storm-possible-tornados
I must say this day is starting to remind me of 1989. I know Acemaster brought this up.
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1126 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
…HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT…
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>021-026-RIZ001>007-262330-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FF.A.0001.120726T2000Z-120727T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
VERNON…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…CHARLEMONT…GREENFIELD…
ORANGE…BARRE…FITCHBURG…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…
GLOUCESTER…CHESTERFIELD…BLANDFORD…AMHERST…NORTHAMPTON…
SPRINGFIELD…MILFORD…WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…
CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY…TAUNTON…BROCKTON…PLYMOUTH…
FALL RIVER…NEW BEDFORD…MATTAPOISETT…AYER…FOSTER…
SMITHFIELD…PROVIDENCE…WEST GREENWICH…WARWICK…BRISTOL…
NARRAGANSETT…WESTERLY…NEWPORT
1126 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT…
MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.
* FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
* SUDDEN HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
* THIS MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
RLG/JWD
well unlike the concord river the shawsheen is surrounded by marshland so that will fill up with the heivy rain fall. this will mean we will actually be able to kayak.
Do you live out in that area, Matt? I grew up in Bedford.
Billerica
Neighbors 🙂 My neice lives on Mulberry Lane in Billerica.
shawsheen RD
close to the shell station
Scott77 and Rainshine thanks for those posts.
No problem JJ! I really enjoy this blog! Be safe everyone!
Did anyone catch any of the 12:00 weather reports on the local TV channels? Curious to see what they are reporting now.
Hi, Sue – I saw channel 4 and basically saying the same. Moderate Severe weathe potential for Western MA , Western CT and ENY. Slight Risk for rest of MA – at this point. But there is a Flood Watch out for a good part of MA. Also, it looks like the severe weather won’t come here until late in the evening. I don’t like that – can’t see what’s going on.
I don’t like the night storms either. Being on the coast may spare me anything too severe though. Thanks rainshine!
No problem, JJ. I am wondering – a lot of the mets. are saying that the breaks of sun appearing are going to make better chances for severe weather. Yet, I thought, regardless of how much or little sun we get, the dynamics are potentially there for severe weather. Or is it that most people aren’t into the weather like we are and wouldn’t understand? 🙂 Sorry if I sound kind of snobby about us weather-lovers! 🙂
Hey Guys…..Just catching up on the latest posts. I’m down here this week on the top of Snowshoe Mt in West Virginia. We too are looking at the potential of some big storms later today and this evening but not quite as bad maybe as back home. Up here doing the radio thing at 4900 ft above sea level. Weather has been both good and lousy here…some days lots of fog and drizzle while a couple of days have been beautiful. One a few ski resorts where the lodge, etc is at the top of the mountain. Today it’s about 90 in the valley while here at the mountaintop its about 71. I just emailed my wife back in Hingham to prepare for a rocky ride tonight.
Hi, Keith-Hingham – have you heard much on your radio? Have fun and stay safe!
Hey Rainshine…Mostly listening to FM stuff with a couple of big antennas up about 25 ft above the ground. Hearing stuff out about 300 miles to the west and northwest (Ohio, Detroit area, SW Ontario) and about 250 miles to the southwest and south (Kentucky, North Carolina)…less to the north and east.
Stay safe and be careful.
Thank you EVERYONE for your updates. It’s nice to see some here who have not been here in a while 🙂
Blue sky is just showing up in Framingham. It’s filtered but it’s blue.
Hey Vicki…totally not storm related but I saw your post on the other thread about the concerts in Plymouth and they are every Wednesday night from 6:30 til 9:30 until the end of the summer. It was a fantastic time last night and I can’t wait until next week!
Thank you – I’m hoping we might get there We enjoy the concerts on the green here every year but by the harbor would be incredible
Breaks in the clouds in Worcester…Starting to brighten up.
Brightening in Sudbury, too.
mostly blue here now
I’m now thoroughly confused. I thought there were three rounds. I just read BZ (good for them having it on their home page) and it has only one second round coming in here arriving in western NE 4-8 and central after 6. I thought the extreme danger was 9-3? Has this changed?
Hi Vicki, I thought the same. Maybe tonight’s coming in two rounds… early evening and after dark. Not sure about that though???
one round came in early this morning with scattered showers.
We had those matt but WBZ just has a round 2 listed and TK has rounds 1, 2, 3 – unless I read incorrectly
Sun just broke through in Brighton!
That sun is only going to destablize the atmosphere further. It is what I like to call self destructing sunshine.
Clouds headed your way I believe shotime – we are back in solid clouds in Framingham
Did the sun peek out at all before your area went back into solid clouds?
It did – it was mostly blue sky with white clouds – I’m seeing some breaks again but more clouds than breaks
this blog was posted last night around 10:20pm… There are two rounds left.
that’s what thought Matt – BZ has only one round left unless I’m reading incorrectly – i’ll just go by this blog
Tornado Watch posted here in PA.
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012
TORNADO WATCH 525 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MAC003-270100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0525.120726T1810Z-120727T0100Z/
MA
. MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BERKSHIRE
I would not be surprised to see more watches posted. I am thinking severe thunderstorm watches but will see what happens.
A line of storms in western PA and NY with tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings.
Thunderstorm Index remains at a 4 west of CT River Valley and a 3 east of there.
Does anyone have a good radar web site to see this?
Longshot – do you have an iphone or ipad? I use RadarUS and like it a lot. I can see the line and they have the areas where warnings are in boxes that you can click on individually to see what the warning is and time it expires
I think it’s a noaa radar – I just use channel 5s on my computer
this is ch 5 – I just drag to area I want to see and you can set up for your area and other specific areas as well. There are also options to show warning areas NWS
http://www.wcvb.com/weather/radar
Been trying to convince the captains of softball to make the call now rather than getting stuck out there in the middle of the game. We may get the game in though, since it doesnt seem like we will be getting anything till after 8pm maybe? Our game starts at 6 and usually ends just before 8.
just called mac to see where he is and he’s on the golf course…….although the line is really far away – any chance of something developing ahead of it??
He’ll probably get his golf game in no problem. I was wondering the same thing Vicki about storms popping up ahead of the line. I hope not for his sake!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…PORTIONS OH…NERN KY…WV…PA…SERN NY…SRN NEW
ENGLAND…NJ.
CONCERNING…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524…
VALID 261937Z – 262130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 524
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF STG-SVR TSTMS NOW OVER NRN/WRN
PORTIONS. NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON…DOWNSHEAR FOR ERN PA EWD
TOWARD SWRN NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND INCLUDING NYC METRO AREA.
DISCUSSION…INCREASINGLY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE…WITH EMBEDDED
BOW/LEWP SEGMENTS…WAS EVIDENT AT 1930Z FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NY SWWD
TO COLUMBIANA COUNTY OH…BECOMING MORE BKN SWWD OVER SERN OH. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES MOVING EWD 40-50 KT…WITH LOCAL VARIATIONS AS
COLD-POOL SURGES OCCUR…AND WILL MOVE INTO FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE/BUOYANT AIR MASS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN PA AND EVENTUALLY EWD
TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
WHILE CINH INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT…PER 18Z RAOBS.
HOWEVER…STG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS FCST…WITH LOW-LEVEL WLYS
ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE THROUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT. AS
SUCH…FAVORABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD OVER CT/RI/LONG
ISLAND. THIS CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN BENEATH SRN RIM OF STRONGEST
MIDLEVEL WINDS…CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES 40-50
KT. DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD OVER ERN/NRN
PA INTO SERN NY. NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD
CONTINUE…BUT WITH SLGT VEERING IN LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL INVOF WARM
FRONT.
Matt Noyes just tweeted the following:
New Severe T’storm Watch for Western NewEng, NYC, NJ and Eastern PA til 11pm
Thanks Scott77 – when I looked on radar it appeared the line was “bowed” backward and I thought my radar was acting up – it was really evident – is that what they mean by a bow and what is the significance of a bow
New Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for all of CT now the exception of Litchfield County which is under a tornado watch.
I don’t think this is the last of the watches. A strong line of storms cutting through central NY and PA with severe thunderstorm warnings and even some tornado warnings. Plenty of sunshine ahead of the line and instablity to tap to maintain its strength.
Correct me if I’m wrong weather mets, but if a radar echo is bowing out it indicates a very strong area of straight line winds.
Sorry last message was in reply to Vicki..
Thanks – it was not only a bow but I could see what appeared to be layers in the bow and it was a very long line north to south
Just heard there are roofs off buildings, trees down, and people are trapped in vehicles in Elmira, NY.
I may love weather but this is way over the top.
Live tweets from the Weather channel saying theres a good possibility there was a tornado just to the west of Elmira…
I think a bust potential is possible if the clouds don’t burn away
I hope you are right – I was thinking – praying actually – the same thing
It’s been sunny for the past hour in Walpole, temp and humidity increasing
We have blue sky and clouds mixed but temp and humidity esp has definitely increased. We turned the ACs on a bit ago just to get the humidity out of the house
Several wind damage reports associated with that line as a result of straight line damage. The thing to look at in the line is any kinks that develop in that line because that could spawn a tornado. There have been tornado warnings with this line but no confirm touchdowns as of yet.
This line is racing. I just checked the tornado warning near Binghamton and its going off to the east at 55 mph. If it is not producing a tornado it probably has straight line winds associated with it. Straight line wind damage could cause damage to an EF 0 EF 1 tornado.
A friend has been watching the local mets and said they are not making a big deal of this at all for eastern MA. Does that mean the severe weather for this area has been downgraded?
I sure hope so!
The way that line looks, if it stays on its present course, most of us we will be spared, unless the line expands north as it heads our way
The fact that we have yet to see even a watch for eastern sections might indicate that
I am thinking a normal summer thunder boomer around these parts.
The way hothead line looks now we may not even see rain. I watered my plants a bit ago. Didn’t want to take chances
Matt Noyes from NECN is live streaming…
http://www.livestream.com/mattnoyes
Nasty line coming right at us in Bushkill PA. Looks really scary!
I believe most of the severe weather will be south of us, I think mostly just a moderate to heavy rain between 7-9pm, did not setup as anticipated, anyways garden variety tstorms
We got by Rounds 1 & 2 unscathed around here. Round 3 has always been the most threatening to me taking it all into account. This will do whatever it’s going to do between 7PM and midnight in the forecast area (southern NH, eastern MA, RI).
I think some northward extension of the current line threatens CT & RI. Also, a wild card (and this will have to happen soon), is what I think will be new development somewhere between Albany NY and Lebanon NH of a cluster or line that will then drop ESE across northern and eastern MA and southern NH (this line may also extend down to catch parts of RI too). This is the biggest potential for the WHW forecast area, and this entire process should be in the time window mentioned above. Let’s see if it verifies. Largest threats are straight line wind damage and large hail. Isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, but is unlikely from the northern extent of the storms.
So we may not yet be out of the woods and need to keep a close eye.
Thanks TK
Thanks, TK. Your thoughts sound logical to me.
I was kind of surprised that we didn’t get any storms during the aft. I would be very surprised if we didn’t get any strong thunderstorms in EMA. I don’t want any – but who knows what Mother Nature decides. If we don’t get that much around here tonight, ‘though mets are saying tomorrow’s storms shouldn’t be as bad as tonight’s – I’m betting tomorrow EMA gets its share of strong thunderstorms.
A beautiful day up here on the top of Snowshoe Mt WV. Lots of sun with puffy clouds racing east. A cluster of T-Storms right now NW of us heading east should miss us by about 50 miles or better to the north. Second line right now just hitting the Ohio River area will not miss us…anticipate that line to be here around 9 or so.
Clouding up quickly here on the mountain. Storms are about an hour out. Will lower the antennas in about 30 minutes.
Stay safe!
I echo that Keith
Thanks guys….storms are just about to Elkins which is about 25 miles NW of us. We have a great view to that area from our spot on top of the mountain. The last frame of the NWS radar shows a slight weakening of the storms. Looks like another batch firing up over southern Ohio.
I very suprised that we are going to miss all of the storms, there all moving well south of us, NYC southward will get all the severe weather, not much in the way of severe weather around here, I still believe we get in on some beneficial rains but I think the flood watch for here is way overdone, still mostly cloudy here 🙂
Latest doppler radar is showing some storms in VT and lots of rain moving into NH. That could start moving southeast and affect us – nothing severe there now. So, I am hoping that we just get some beneficial rain out of this – we will see.
Is that the Line TK was talking about do you think?
It is, in whatever form it’s trying to take. Wondering if the stuff to the south “stole the thunder”, literally and figuratively.
thinking now areas south of the pike
TK my son in law is very interested in weather. May I give him this address and if so he will post under Jon. I told him his first post would go into moderation. Thank you!
Absolutely. Please do!
Thanks TK
NYC has dodged a bullet as the line is weakening 🙂
Looks as if most of ct has as well. Some thunderstorm warnings but not looking as if there will be any tornado warnings there
I wish tom would post. Does anyone know his general location and if the line went through there?
I forgot Tom was in NY. I wonder how Hadi is doing too. It has been a while since his last post that a line was heading right towards them.
I have been missingon here today, as I am getting blocked now at work from accessing this site! On my cell phone too, since it is a work one. Glad we have not seen much here as of now.
Oh darn. Sorry north. Hope you can be here at night but will miss you during the day 🙁
I can continue to the site, but I have to click through a warning message and state that I am in agreement for using the site for work purposes. Does it count if you are using to help your employees to stay safe :).
No question about it. We will all support you if your company questions your intent 😀
🙂
It was nasty for a while but the worst is over. I was expecting it to be worse and thankfully that did not occur.
Thanks for asking North!
Just glad you and the family are ok, since that line look intense heading towards you.
Great to hear from you. Glad you are safe
First set of storms moved in herse at the mountaintop (Snowshoe WV). No lightning but some light rain and some gusty winds up to maybe 40mph. First set of storms weakened quite a bit. Second set could be by here betwen 11 and 12….pretty strong right now but maybe they will weaken too.
After dinner I poked my head onto my front porch and it is “icky sticky”…no breeze whatsoever. It is absolutely stifling outside. UGH!
It is no wonder there is so much rain to our south and west. Hopefully no storms and just downpours tonight. The storms were restricted to extreme southwest CT, NYC to Philly from what I can tell by radar.
Philip you just make me laugh. I can see you poking your head out ;). I was worrying today for you. Glad it worked out but it sure is nasty humid
I noticed that too Phillip. The air is so thick tonight. It is not often that the PWAT’s get this high. I think they are in the 2-2.5 range tonight according to the NWS.
As far as the severe weather potential for the WHW forecast area goes.
Strike 1, 2, and 3 and we’re OUT!
Still general tstorms possible overnight. But the big threat is now by the boards, 3 times over.
I’m sure nobody is complaining, except that we didn’t get very much in the way of needed rainfall up to this point at least.
If I had to make this forecast again, I would probably come up with the same solution I did before. The big storms did happen, just not in the forecast area.
Looks like the heavier rain band in NE CT is becoming lighter as it moves east on the current radar.
Looks like Baltimore is getting hammered. The radar is showing the entire city with yellow, orange and red returns and the weather channel is saying it is raining at a rate of an inch an hour and they have already had 3 inches and it actually looks like it is getting worse to me.
watch what was predicted today happen tomorrow afternoon and evening. nws has severe weather in the forcast through tomorrow night
I was thinking that, and with the boundary not far away, you never know.
I said that in one of my posts yesterday – that we could get the severe weather today. Not sure of that now, however, but as TK says, w/the boundary not far away, you never know.
I never was expecting much today in our area for severe weather…It was like going into a snowstorm when it’s 60 degrees the previous day, busts are bound to happen. In this case we were going from a very stable air mass to a very unstable air mass capable of producing severe weather. The transition isn’t always easy.
Big dud as always.
A trace of rain from alotta hype, Ive been getting peppered by alotta people saying another big dud,
Way to much hype.
When the atmosphere carries as much potential as it did last night, even in this area, and the majority of met’s agree, you warn the people of what may happen. You don’t ignore it. That’s when you get screwed. And it’s much better to recover from a forecast of something possibly severe that does not happen than it is to leave the population unwarned. That potential was there all throughout the event and we lucked out dodging 3 bullets yesterday.
when people hype it does not happen when we do not it does happen
Wise comment Matt – with a system like the one that has done so much damage all around us, I am personally feeling grateful we did not get it and thankful that the mets let us know it was a possibility. I liked TK’s comment that he’d probably come up with the same solution if it were to set up the same way again.
I also remember a lot of comments on June 2 of last year that there had not been enough warning. I thought there was plenty of warning but like everyone here am more tuned in to weather.
TK – you did GREAT in my book!
Unfortunately people don’t care what happens around them, it’s all about did it hit me and my town, if it doesn’t then people think over hype, I gotta admit I bit on it too should have known from past times they would be weakening as they were coming towards us, I believe if it was a solid line it would have weakened enough bc that is what happens here inside 495, I know I know it happens every once in a while but most of the time these severe weather things that look promising, next time I won’t bite
I did a lot of asking this morning – friends, family and coworkers. Every single one said they would rather have known the potential is there. There wasn’t even the slightest bit of hesitation in one person’s answer.
The ingredients were there for severe weather. Thankfully the line weakend as it got into CT and
pushed east from there. I would rather hear the worst possible scenario than be caught by surprised
by severe thunderstorms.
I would say sure for some yes but for some it’s like a bad movie and want a refund 🙂
My guess is they are the ones who simply enjoy complaining I honestly dont want them dictating what responsible mets like TK and others do. Sadly There is no refund on life Just my opinion
Seems that way.
Thankfully the nasty storms stayed west and south of SNE yesterday including a tornado report in Upstate NY.
Should any storms fire today they will be level 1 (non severe storm)
I am hoping the weather is quiet next week when I am on vacation in Virginia.
Enjoy your vacation JJ!!!
Do we have any more weather “busts” here than anywhere else?
Good question and HI 🙂
You mean in New England?
Why is it so difficult to forecast in New England? I am sure that question has been answered here before but sadly I don’t remember 🙁
Yes, here in NE. Maybe it’s just because we have such changeable weather? I mean in a location like Phoenix, other than heat how much “weather” is there to forecast? I know it does rain there but not a whole lot. Last time I was there it was 111° before noon the day I was leaving!
The High Plains of Texas are harder to forecast than New England, believe it or not. Also some of the areas in the Upper Plains and interior Northwest (example, Black Hills SD).
light rain falling here in billerica it has been foggy and drizzle here all morning fog has been effecting my back yard. I think its do to the water in the marsh being warmer or cooler than the air
Greenland ice sheet record melting http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2178540/Greenland-ice-melting-NASA-stunned-satellite-pictures-unprecedented-melting-ice-sheet.html?ITO=1490
Thank you, matt. Very interesting and kind of scary, too!
OK All, here’s my question. What is your expert forecast for Boston / Cambridge between 6-9 PM tonight?
Showers are most likely during the first hour of that time frame in Boston/Cambridge. Don’t think any thunder of signficance.
This situation was not over-hyped at all. We got lucky. There were severe storms, with rotation, and they stayed in NY and touched western CT.
When I made that forecast, I talked to 4 or 5 well-respected former coworkers, and we all agreed. Harvey and many of the TV guys were concerned. There was no reason not to make the forecast that was made. To say the storms would weaken based on past observations was risky, given the potential.
I firmly believe most people would rather know of a potential, have it not happen, and breathe a sigh of relief, than read a toned down forecast based on something that happened in 2008 (example year), then get caught offguard. If I had to make the forecast again, based on the data I had, I would make the same one.
TK – absolutely agree.
I am actually disappointed in Ch 7 (did everyone just fall of his/her respective chairs) that it was the only one of the three major stations that had no reference to the potential risk anywhere easily found on its blog. To me, it is the absolute responsibility of a meteorologist to ensure the public is aware of what could happen
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