42 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

1. Thanks TK.
   Another great day before a stormy period arrives late tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and non severe thunderstorms are also possible. Biggest severe weather threat looks to be to the west and south of SNE.

2. well last night got cold. some of the trees in the marsh are starting to change color. There was steam/fog/mist comming off the marsh all night . could not even see 10 feet infront of me this morning in my back yard . my driveways was perfectly clear. it is so dry as well dew points below 30!

   1. That’s a good sign that your trees are starting to turn. Hopefully the foliage overall will be much earlier and prettier than last year. 🙂

3. Hiked Mt. Lafayette yesterday, was a great hike. At the peak, about a mile high, temps were below freezing and the winds were gusting to 50 MPH. I’m a bit sore today, but it was definitely worth doing. The views made it all worth it.

   1. never climbed that mountain.

4. Going to be interesting to see if more of SNE gets put under some sort of wind advisory/watch as parts of western New England have a high wind watch for tomorrow. Moisture coming up from the south and a cold front from the west going to team up to create a good size storm system which is going to take an inside runner track to the west of us.
   Heavy rain and non severe thunderstorms I think are also possible but it looks like the severe weather should remain west and south of us.

5. If this upcoming event is a hint of things to come for down the road, then winter enthusiasts in New England are not going to be happy…….

   1. Here’s the sorta good news for winter lovers. They mean more in October & November.

6. Tom I was thinking the same thing and sometimes the pattern that sets up in the fall is an omen for the winter. I remember the fall of 2002 had some coastal storms and the winter to follow had above average snowfall with the big on The Presidents Day Storm.
   High Wind Watch now up for all of SNE tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday morning. I am going to be getting the battery powered radio and flashlights to be on the safe side.

   1. I missed that 2003 President’s Day storm, but remember watching coverage on it while in Florida. As I recall, it dumped an amazing amount of snow while not having a modest low pressure.

      1. Ugh, my english !! The pressure in the storm wasnt very low !!!! :):):)

   2. JJ what mph are you talking. You caught my attention and you said you are getting flashlights. I just bought a couple of lanterns from LLBean that last a good long time but haven’t bought batteries yet

7. School’s getting busy and I’ve already given this some thought, so I’ll throw this out now…..

   Snowfall prediction for the upcoming season at Logan : 31 inches

   I think the NAO for the cold season will be fairly close to neutral with no long duration spikes into the positive or negative phase.

   I think, as we’ve seen for a long time now, there will continue to be a lot of amplified flow. So, I think the winter will be quite stormy with above normal precip. I think south central VT and NH, the Merrimack Valley, Worcester and points west out into eastern NY State will get a few heavy wet snowstorms that push their seasonal totals well above normal.

   Also, being that we are predicting for Logan, I’ve noticed that the ocean temps east of us, all the way to Atlantic Canada are running above normal. So, I cant help thinking that coastal New England is going to lose a couple of appreciable snowfalls to boundary layer warmth, especially early in the season.

   Temps overall will be slightly above normal.

   1. I like your analysis on snowfall Tom and I absolutely agree on below normal snow for Logan. However, I am not sold on your thinking that well above normal amounts for those interior sections. For now, I am very skiddish after what happened (or didn’t happen) last winter. I still wouldn’t be surprised if there will still be some lingering effects. While I am not sold on global warming per se just yet, our climate is definitely changing from those days of yesteryear. I would say normal to maybe very slightly above snow for some interior locals for now.

      As for numbers, I have 22″ or 33″ for Logan in mind so nothing specific just yet. I will see what October has in store.

   2. I like your reasoning too Tom especially the warm ocean temps. It seems to me winters run in groups so I wouldn’t be surprised if we have at least one or teo more less snowy one before getting walloped.

8. My early guess with snowfall is 20-30 inches and temps averaging above normal but not as warm as last winter. I might have to adjust this as we into November.
   If we see measurable snow in October based on previous October’s with measurable snow that snowfall for the winter will be below normal.

9. Does someone want to keep track of the predictions or would you like me to. I’d be more than happy but don’t want to take the fun from anyone else who wants to

   Also. Do we wait until say November or even later October or start now.

   1. You keep record of guesses and please file my last posting. Since some have gave number, let’s start now. And no changing amounts. Thanks vicki.

      1. Uh uh. Some have said it needs to be closer to winter including I believe TK.

         Let’s wait and see when TK says to start and I also want to make sure no one else wants to keep track

   2. Hmmmm. As much as I would love to see an above average snowfall for this winter (fluffy snow too…not the wet stuff) I’m going to sit on the fence for a few weeks on this one (we should have a closing date on predictions). Also with all my antennas for my radio hobby..wind, snow and ice are not a good combination.

      As Tom and others have noted the water temps are very warm (October 1st swimming on the south side of the cape anyone?) and unless things take a quick dip in October and November I doubt many places in coastal areas see any snow until January. My worst fears are a cold and dry winter…nothing like paying through the nose for heat and not being able to at least enjoy some snow events.

      1. I soooo agree about heat and not enjoying snow

10. As I have said prepare for a tough winter. All due respect Tom, but I believe those numbers are low. I had said 100 inches for Logan. Let me go with between 75_100 inches. Anybody noticing a few acorns lately, you haven’t seen anything yet. I have one final piece to look at next month, this should verify my prediction. I also would like to clarify my input. I am almost certain on my winter call. It will be an old fashioned winter,with plenty of snow and cold by second to third week of December. The only thing that I am weary on calling is the snow amounts. I predict many storms, so havto shoot for that high number. Vicki please file this so we can pull it up this spring. I will give the entire acorn story after this winter. I believe I may take some shots with this posting, but this is my thinking. We absolutely do not get a winter like last year.

    1. I don’t think anyone will criticize you for up your opinion. My youngest and grandson reminded me we had tons of acorns last year and I told them it meant a rough winter So far we have no acorns and we have a lot of oaks. I do think the caterpillar predicted last year correctly but am not positive.

       1. Vicki please do not take this the wrong way. The acorns last year were very low. And also December is to late for the snow poll, since we can have november snow. I propose veterans day Nov 11.

          1. John. I won’t take it the wrong way. Here the a a acorns were all over the place. I thought id remembered that and mentioned It on here. But didn’t check with my daughter until tonight. Maybe it’s regional. And this year so far not many at all. But I suspect it’s early. I’ll keep you posted since I’m now curious

11. John I hope you and The Farmers’ Almanac are right and it will be snowy winter.

    1. JJ. I second that

12. I suggest that December 1st be the absolute deadline to give Vicki their snowfall amounts.

    October and November generally sets the tone for what will happen with an upcoming winter.

    Do others agree on this date??

    1. Philip I have found when October and November temps average below normal that is when we tend to have our roughest
       winters in terms of cold and snow. When those two months average above normal the winter tends to be easy with above
       normal temps and below normal snowfall.

13. Early December snowfall then the remainder of the month and Jan will be cold and dry. Places on the Cape will have more snow than say metro west. Ocean Effect. Then all heck breaks out in Feb-March. Logan averages 50-60″ for the season. Cold April.

    1. I see we are on the same page.

14. Again…what does everyone (besides John) think of “December 1st” as the deadline for snow numbers? I just feel that some may need to wait until what November is like.

    I believe Barry usually gives his winter outlook sometime in late November.

    1. How about march 21st? 🙂

       1. Hahahaha

15. I say dec 1st is good.

16. December 1st is good.

17. Thanks TK 😀

18. The only almanac worth anything, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, is not predicting a snowy winter. It’s predicting a cold and dry one.

    1. If a weak El Nino does develop, and with the very warm Atlantic temps, I don’t think it will be a “dry” winter.

       1. If we put a ridge in the interior northwestern US, Canadian Prairies, and Upper Plains of the US, sometimes what happens is we end up with frequent cold because of a downstream trough in the northern stream in eastern Canada and the US Northeast, but the southern stream moisture has trouble making it up. That can be a drier pattern.

19. This storm tomorrow through Thursday looks pretty nasty. The winds look like a serious issue.

20. Blog is updated!

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