Summer’s Final “Heat” Blast

127 Comments

10:54PM

Before you say “hey it’s not gonna be hot”, I put the word “heat” in quotes because Tuesday night is going to feel like a mid summer’s night, very warm, humid, but with the addition of strong wind and a round of heavy rain. What’s causing all this? A cold front, ambling its way west to east, a push of warm, tropical air ahead of it, cooler & drier air moving in behind it. Further south (Carolinas, portions of Mid Atlantic, etc.) may see severe thunderstorms and even tornadoes, but a stabilizing influence of the southerly wind off the Atlantic, and less favorable upper level conditions, will preclude any serious severe weather. However, conditions are favorable for strong wind gusts from the south, with gusts over 40 MPH possibly causing some wind damage.

Back to the rain for a moment… The forecast area will not see all that much during the day, just a round of light rain or showers during the afternoon Tuesday as the leading edge of the warm sector moves across the region. By evening we blast into the warm sector and the temperature does not fall, and if anything it goes up into the 70s after having struggled slowly through the 60s during the day. Although it will turn quite humid, you won’t feel it as you would on a calm summer night, thanks to the wind. But this humidity will be the fuel for a band of heavy rain which will come across the region from west to east during the overnight hours (early Wednesday morning), exiting the coast as the morning commute gets underway. Any slowing of this line will mean a greater impact on the commute with reduced visibility and road flooding. Cape Cod will see the heaviest activity during the morning hours. A final burst of strong wind may accompany this line as it arrives.

As Wednesday goes by, we’ll see drier air working in from the west, breaking clouds, some sun, but also the slight risk of a few additional showers.

The front will sit not far offshore, so any ripple of low pressure could toss clouds and showers back toward the coast, and this may happen at least over Cape Cod on Thursday. Most locations should see dry weather Thursday and Friday with a narrow area of high pressure.

As mentioned on the previous discussion, a large scale trough will set up over the Midwest, sending pieces of energy toward the east. Some of this energy may result in a few showers by next weekend. We’ll also have to watch the moisture still lingering offshore as it may want to try to get involved. It is too early to tell how this will unfold, so the weekend forecast will be low to medium confidence with generalized wording.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Cloudy with periods of light rain or showers in the afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH eventually gusting over 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy and muggy. Showers and possible thunderstorms moving west to east across the region mainly after midnight. Temperature rising to 70-75. Wind S 15-25 MPH gusting 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and over higher elevations, may shift to SW and W briefly with arrival of heaviest rain, then diminishing and becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers ending west to east early but some heavy showers and possible thunder lingering over Cape Cod during the morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny later morning through afternoon with isolated showers. Temperature cooling into the 60s. Wind shifting to W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 51. High 66.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 55. High 75.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 70.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 69.

127 thoughts on “Summer’s Final “Heat” Blast”

  2. Heck of a sat photo! Several TV mets discussing the wind tonight. Lots of maps with red for storm/wind advisories.

    1. I have a feeling this will be less of an event than is being advertised. Important, yes. Remarkable, not really.

  3. The foliage season is really starting to heat up in some areas in Northern New England. I noticed some color this weekend in Coastal 🙂 Maine. Even last night, class was released early and I took the back roads home and noticed many tree’s with hints of color and some that were completely yellow/orange.

    Below are some great links that I use to track the changing colors.

    Yankee Foliage: This sight shows the average progression of the foliage season and current reports per counties. Though some knuckle heads post inaccurate reports.
    http://www.yankeefoliage.com/new-england-foliage-maps/

    Foliage Network is another good one. This site is updated every few days. It also archives each season so you can compare each year.
    http://www.foliagenetwork.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=34&Itemid=68

    New England Web Cams
    I really like this one because there is nothing like seeing it with your own eyes.
    http://jeff-foliage.com/new-england-webcam-page/

    1. Thanks for the foliage sites coastal! They will be helpful when I begin planning a trip up north this fall. Last year I hit it just right in Vermont, right when the colors were brightest (not saying much considering last year). Right after that weekend the colors dimmed considerably.

  6. Thanks TK.
    A little surprised with the SPC expanding their slight risk across SNE to include a lot of area with the exception of the eastern parts. It will be interesting to see if that changes with the 9AM update.
    The biggest threats here will be the heavy rain, gusty winds, and non severe thunderstorms. Will see how this all plays out with this inside runner.

  8. Still with the latest update the SPC has a good chunk of SNE with the exception of the coastal areas in the slight risk. I don’t agree with it and to me it if you are going to include SNE it should be the far western parts only. Looks like a watch will be posted for the Mid Atlantic and that to me is the biggest threat for severe weather today. I am not saying were off the hook with thunderstorms but I just don’t see the severe threat the SPC is showing for us today.

  9. Thanks, TK. I don’t know why, but when I try to bring up the link on the typhoon nothing comes up. Maybe it’s my computer. I have an HP NX5600 from 2004 that is a desktop – so maybe that’s why. I’ll keep trying, ‘though.

      1. About half a dozen or so times, Philip. He has swapped out the power supply for a bigger one; doubled the amount of system memory; he put in about 2 new CMOS batteries; and he dropped in at least one new disc. And he changed the fan on the CPU. The motherboard has been ok. Uhh, I had to ask my husband about all the changes – for the most part, I have no idea what he is talking about! 🙂

  10. TK, do you agree with “December 1st” as the official deadline here to give Vicki our snow totals? If you have a more reasonable date in mind, by all means feel free to voice your opinion. I just want to give everyone as much time to look at as much info as possible in the coming weeks.

    1. I was also going to ask TK if we should give one number or a range. I feel as if a range makes it difficult to see who is closest but as always majority (and TK 🙂 ) rules !!!

    2. My recommendation (and it’s up to you guys and gals), is inches and tenths for snow (the way it’s measured officially), and November 15 for the guess. Sometimes it does snow early, as we have seen RECENTLY. 🙂

  11. I think December 1st is a good date. I just hope with this storm system taken an inside runner track this is not the omen for the winter. Couple tornado watch boxes up across parts of the Mid Atlantic and with the latest mesoscale discussions it looks another might be added getting up to the NYC area and parts of western CT.

  12. 72 here with DP of 63 but feels moist. Wind has picked up in last hour with some gusts 7-9 mph. We had a few raindrops earlier as well.

  14. I like to be early with my predictions. Here it is for the 2012-2013 winter (please remember, I was wrong by at least 30 inches last year!):

    1. Snow totals for Boston and vicinity: 27 inches (no blockbuster storms; in fact, unfortunately most of the snow in and around Boston will come as the leading edge of precipitation that changes over to rain at the coast, which does mean the interior will have significant snow falls throughout the winter)
    – Nothing in November;
    – Trace to several inches in December;
    – 6-10 inches in January;
    – 6-10 inches in February;
    – 3-6 inches in March;
    – Nothing in April.
    2. Mean temperature slightly above average, but the Charles river will freeze over, and we will have a prolonged period of dry, cold weather in December and January.

    1. Joshua I have recorded 27 inches for you and of course you can change it right up until whatever end date is set.

      As a reminder to everyone, if I do not post that I saw your guess and that I recorded it, that means I did not see it. Please feel free to poke me as a reminder.

      Thanks

  15. I did record Joshua’s prediction but did not record any numbers from last night. If you want me to put a number in for you, please let me know. No reason not to change it before the end date if you wish.

  16. I have a question somebody here might be able to answer. I grew up in the Boston area in the seventies and eighties and don’t ever remember the TV mets ( Don Kent, Dick Albert etc) reporting the weather with as much “drama” as there seems
    To be today. Did I miss something or is turning every change of the weather into an “event” a function of the now 24/7 news cycle. Love to hear your feedback. Also – the winters I remember after 78′ , with a few exceptions in the mid nineties always seemed to feature more rain than snow. At least in the Boston area…..

    2. M.L. – You are not alone in feeling the drama that comes with the reporting of the weather has become more and more intense. While I don’t have much history to fall back on (29 years), I have noticed, especially in the last 5 years or so, the news in general, including the weather, has been reported to grab your attention and draw you in to the drama of it all. Less reporting seems to be done on the facts with less well thought out and researched stories. Reporters and journalists alike seem to jump on the one piece of knowledge and just go with it (TV mets jumping on one model run and making it fact). They do this mainly b/c the news outlets they work for are more concerned about the ratings and keeping the viewers interested. This brings me to the next point about keeping viewers interested. With the advent of so much social media and information at our fingertips, we seem to need to be entertained more and lose interest in things more quickly. The media’s obsession with ratings and sensationalizing the news is, quite frankly, a reaction to us, the impatient and needy viewers.

      1. **Disclaimer**

        Not all TV mets and reporters do this, and not all viewers are needy. Just saying that in general, I believe IMO, its a classic case of cause and affect.

      2. I’ll leave names out, but I can’t even count the times I have seen a news anchor misinterpret something, make a stupid comment, and watched the met hide a cringe, knowing they can’t even correct what the anchor said, now leaving the public with the impression of something that the meteorologist was not even saying.

    3. M.L. I think you are right but sadly I do not think the Mets have a choice and I know at least one who does not like it at all. The stations are going for hype and they expect their anchors and mets and all others to provide it. I agree totally with Acemaster’s comments.

    4. I could go on forever about this, but I’ll keep it short.

      The drama catalyst was the Blizzard of 1978. It didn’t get too bad right after that, but after a while when there was a threat of a “big one” and comparisons started happening, it was off and running. This eventually spread to non winter events, then just day to day weather. In MOST cases it has to do with news directors playing a ratings game, especially when other outlets like cable networks (TWC, etc.) first came, and then of course the internet. Pardon the pun, but it snowballed from there. Many mets I have spoken to have expressed displeasure at having to be dramatic, but sometimes they had to go along just for the sake of job security. There are a few hype master met’s that have gone through the Boston TV market (most are gone now) as well. I’ll let you decide who these were. 🙂

  17. Thanks all, when I was growing up the expression “we’re hearty New Englanders” was something one regularly heard with regards to the winter. If it snowed in January it wasn’t an “event” it was January! I own a retail food establishment and I can say for a fact that if the “S” word is even in the forecast folks go bananas! The chance of snow flurries can cost an entire day’s sales. Conversely, the mention of the “chance that there could be the possibility of maybe a potential nor’easter” drives folks into a total panic – huge lines for milk, bread etc. I always wondered why buy perishables if there’s a threat of losing power? I guess it’s a different world …..? 🙂

    2. On a weather note M.L., from what I do know and try to understand about the weather, it is cyclical. Climate change aside, for now, cold snowy winters come and go in cycles. Also want to note that cold AND snowy winters don’t always go together. The winters of “yesteryear” may have simply been the result of a normal cycle of weather. Probably 50 years from now, when winters will be cold and snowy again, I will be telling my kids and grandkids how the winters of yesteryear were milder.

    3. And Shelby Scott would be sent out into the elements! It wasn’t a storm if you didn’t see Shelby holding on as the wind whipped or the snow pelted her face. 🙂

  18. The tornado watch for far western New England is warranted. This reminds me of the event a few weeks ago, with just a tad bit more potential out there. Still no changes to the outlook for our forecast area in eastern areas.

  19. TK I mentioned this earlier and to me I was surprised the SPC issued a slight risk for a good chunk of SNE. I think it should have been for far western areas. This like back on the 8th of September and it has the feel the line will weaken as it crosses SNE.

      1. Well what am I going to do with my lanterns and batteries then 🙁 WE may have to have a planned lights out night. The family loves it when I decide to do that…………..not so much!

      2. The problem we may face Charlie is wind, even without “thunderstorms”. All we need is convection (showers with or without lightning) to bring some very strong winds to the surface. This still favors areas that are elevated or see less friction (south-facing coast for example), but all areas should be aware that wind damage and power outages may occur tonight, especially overnight.

  20. Most of our heavy rains will be between 6pm-Midnight, then scattered after that, most get around an inch of rain but isolated lower and higher amounts, 🙂

  22. Vicki – I am guessing 36 inches of snow western suburbs of Boston and further west. I’ll also go for about 24 inches of snow in Logan Airport. I feel it will be a snowy winter but not that many really cold days. Meaning heavy, wet snow. Starting in Dec. and off and on into March. No snow in April. Of course – this is all just my gut feelings. I wish I could guess by month, but that’s a bit tricky for me to figure out.

  23. I guess summer is still here – we just got a moderate rain shower in Sudbury (‘though it’s not showing up on radar) and sun is trying to come out. The sky is rather pretty. Yellow sun breaking through fast-moving gray clouds.

  24. I suggest that we get this snow poll golng. I propose that we take tks advice, and start on November 15. Also we can use the same for snow total. I think mid November is right on since it can snow easily this month. Wind is howling here in Pembroke, I suspect the wind will be the big story.

  25. I will be away from my computer and limited phone access until 10PM. After that I’ll be on both the blog & FB tracking things.

  26. Hi all 🙂 Looks to be an interesting weather night. The winds have definitely picked up here in Brighton in the past hour or so.
    Vicki, what are the specifics for snow predictions?

    1. The amount is for Logan unless someone wants to extend it to other areas. Just guess a number as TK said to the 10ths. I can’t do ranges but someone else may be able to

        1. Official obs are taken at Logan Airport. In the weather biz we often refer to the air port as much as the city it’s in.

  27. I have no problem with TK’s suggested date of November 15. The only thing I would like to insist is that a “winner” is officially declared sometime between April 15-30 depending upon late season snow potential.

    If the date works for TK, it should for everyone as well. 🙂

    1. I’m not sure I follow. You mean the cutoff day is April 15ish?

      I go along with anything. Just point me in the right direction and I’m a happy camper. Eeekkks. My husband just went into hysterics. For some reason he thinks I’m opinionated. Jeeesh

      1. The cut off would be the last time it snows.so from 11/15,till last bit of snow. I would love a say $30 giftcard to winers choice. Why not.

      1. So you seem to be running the snow poll. So 11/15 is final date for entry. I guess the only thing to figure out is stop date. I suspect that would be for the final snowflake. It sure would be fun to award the winner. It would make it more interesting. What does everyone think.

        1. Tom you must be feeling that wind a tad bit more over there. Hey tom did you ever hear of the brimstone tavern in Pembroke, well was that. Before that the winery and finally before that bobby Hacketts. Well wakefield and Some other celebs just bought it.

      2. I can’t bring myself to close the windows. I have no idea why I enjoy the wind so much as it seems really odd but I just do

  30. My wife is so crazy about making sure she gets her walk in, she just went out. I told her to watch out for all of the elements!

      1. I think were going to see a weakening trend with the line but would not be surprised if some areas see an isolated strong storm.

          1. Yes and the NWS discussions talks about “deep shear and increasing low level jet “, so this particular event looks like it has the dynamics to keep a decent intensity towards the coast, even at night in mid September.

            1. Interesting to note that not much lightning activity north of the Hudson Valley right now
              http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/explorer.html

              Also winds seem to die down quite a bit west of the Hudson Valley except in far western NY state where they pick up a little but not quite as strong as here. Antennas are holding up fine so far (knock on wood).

              2. Thanks for the link. My gf’s aunt works for Vaisala. Awesome company. She keeps trying to get me some refurbished weather instruments.

  33. The tide guages on the south coast of New England….Providence, Newport…etc…are running about 1 to 1.5 ft above normal with high tide a few hours away. Going to be some high tide lines on the beaches tomorrow morning down there.

    Not related…..the north pole web cams are showing yet another surge of warmth towards the pole as the melt ponds have reappeared the last couple of days. The amt of ice left up there is well below that of 2007, the previous low reading.

    1. Thanks Tom for the north pole info. It is pretty interesting to see what is happening with the ice there.

      I hope the flooding does not become moderate for the south coast beach residents.

      1. In Dennisport on Lower County Rd where the beaches are, my guess is that there are about 5 vertical feet from the high tide level to the road. I have never seen the water make it onto Lower County Rd and I dont think it will happen tonight, but I always am amazed how low to the water we have developed things to.

        1. Tom I agree with development and don’t get it. My inlaws lived in mt pleasant SC just over the bridge from isle of palms that was severely damaged during Hugo. SC said any home that Hugo took would not have permission to rebuild. About 5 years later they were all rebuilt

          1. I can only imagine that those homeowners either cant find anyone to sell them insurance or if they can, the premiums must be sky high.

            1. I’d agree. My guess is to build they had to give up right to insurance. Even on Humarock unless the house is raised you can’t get flood ins

  35. Tornado watch looks like it was just issued for the entire south coast of CT to the RI border and parts of long island too.

  36. The winds are just howling. I think Nov 15th is a good date. Btw I would not read into what winter holds with this system.

  38. That was the only tornado warning that I saw up here in the Northeast. There were a couple in the Mid Atlantic.

  40. Snow contest best options are, in my opinion…

    Guesses due November 15. Keep the poll open through April 30. Yes it doesn’t snow measurable in Boston very often in April, but it has happened. We cannot count it out climatologically, REGARDLESS of the current and expected weather pattern at the time. Make the guesses in inches and tenths. (Example, 44.8 inches). The location would be Logan Airport in Boston MA.

  41. “Hey it’s not gonna be hot”…oh wait…you told me not the say that 😉 Sorry! Couldn’t resist!

    So windy outside it sounds like rain!

  43. Wow incredible rain last night. 1.20 here and pounding on the roof and ACs.

    It’s 59 with a DP of 54 now. Much nicer!

    1. We had .87 here and a lot of small branches down. I was nice to see the rain gone this morning when it was time to take the puppy out!

  44. Rainshine – I recorded your 24 inches for Boston.

    John – are you still going with 100 or should I leave your amount blank for now?

    I’m going with 18.2 for me

    1. I am waiting for one last bit of information, that won’t be out till next month. Hold off. Unless there is some huge change with my new information, I will still be in the high numbers. Thanks for asking. Vicki your shooting low. You have time to change. Hint, hint.

  45. I have a real non-weather question and hope it’s ok if I ask. I don’t know if there is anyone on here who has experience downloading youtube videos. My business associate uses them in the PowerPoints I create and we are trying to figure what format is best to save them to. wmv definitely doesn’t work while mp4 seems better but we were not sure. Hope it’s ok for me to ask.

    1. Nothing wrong with asking as there will usually be someone who can answer you. Unfortunately, I’m not one of them. I hope someone here can chime in with help for you. 🙂

  46. Saw Cindy Fitzgibbons on Fox 25 announce that she will be done in two weeks. She has decided not to renew her contract. I met her at a couple of Zip Trips and she seems like a very sweet girl. I know her boys are the same age as mine so I hope she is able to spend more time with them now. I imagine it must have been tough to not be there every morning as the kids head off to school.

    1. I talked to her at the Southern New England Weather Conference – very nice girl. She’ll be missed.

  47. Was there a reason for the Severe T-storm warnings last night? From my observation there wasn’t any lightning or hail accompanied. The winds were very strong and of course the rain heavy, but didn’t seem to fit the criteria.

    1. The closest cloud to ground lightning stroke was east of Jacksonville FL. There was absolutely ZERO need for severe thunderstorm warnings. The high wind warnings and wind advisories should have been sufficient to warn the public in that situation. In my opinion, that is over-warning, and can be as bad as not warning enough.

  48. Thanks for the feedback WW. If they are going to issue severe t-storm warnings for last night then they should be consistent and issue during any heavy rain shower with wind and heavy snow squalls we get in the winter with a passing cold front, but like you said it is over-warning.

  49. The November 15, 2012 deadline and contest end date of April 30, 2013 very much works for me. Thanks TK for your input! 🙂

    So we lost Dylan Dreyer and soon now Cindy Fitzgibbon? I am going to miss my weekday morning weather eye candy. I am going to have to check out Dylan one Sat or Sun on Weekend Today Show. 😉

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