Turning Colder

130 Comments

8:06AM

A cold front is now moving offshore and in will rush colder air for the balance of the weekend, along with gusty wind. High pressure will crest over southern New England Monday which will be a fair and chilly day. Low pressure will ride out of the Midwest and bring unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday with some rain and snow, but this will not be a significant system. The end of the week looks fair and chilly again as the overall pattern remains one featuring below normal temperatures and precipitation.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs around 45 through midday then falling to the 30s late. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 42.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain late. Low 28. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM mix / PM snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 39.

130 thoughts on “Turning Colder”

    1. I think any steady precipitation is in quickly late Tuesday (and may not last long) and at that point it may not be cold enough to support snow at least in coastal and southeastern areas. Some refinements are coming, I’m sure.

    1. Did you hear what MIAA was going to do with the high school football playoffs next year? It’s the basically “everybody gets in, everybody gets a trophy” mentality, which in my opinion is a horrible idea. We’re not talking about 6 year olds playing t-ball or soccer. This will mean playoffs start in mid October and all the games after that don’t count toward the standings. Never again will a Thanksgiving game decide a playoff berth. This will all but destroy a tradition. Some towns are already talking about not even playing their Thanksgiving games if this new playoff format goes into effect because it won’t be worth it. Congratulations on destroying what wasn’t broken, MIAA.

      3. I am in favor of less competition when very young but high school rivalries are a true tradition. The kids will lose that right of passage if you will. Of course if more parents taught the meaning of respect or in some cases had been taught it, we might not have this problem.

        1. I’m much the same. When they are very young teach them about the game and working together and not so much the results. And even when they get older sure it’s more about trying to win because that’s just our nature, but as long as they don’t lose sight of the teamwork thing that’s great too.

          I couldn’t agree more about the parental role. That is where it starts. The school’s job is to educate the children. It’s our job to raise them. 🙂

  4. Looks like it’s back.

    06Z GFS at 112 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F24%2F2012+06UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=102&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    0Z Euro at 96 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&hh=096&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1

    0Z Canadian at 108 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&hh=108&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=114&fixhh=1

    0Z UKMET at 96 hours:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&hh=096&comp=1&runb=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1

    There are timing and intensity differences, but it now looks like we’ll get something.

  7. Repost.

    Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In which layer of the atmosphere is ozone most commonly found?

    A) Stratosphere
    B) Troposphere
    C) Mesosphere
    D) Ionosphere

  8. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! We are up at my mom’s NW of Albany and have been getting snowshowers all morning (tail end of some lake effect snow plumes). It’s extremely blustery and cold with temps only in the low 30’s!

    12z GFS looks plenty cold enough for snow across a lot of SNE tuesday. Much of the heavy precip stays off shore but it would still deliver a light to moderate snowfall for many away from the coast. We’ll see what the Euro has to say in a bit.

  9. Latest model analysis from Joe Joyce (granted this was written before seeing the 12z GFS):

    The ECMWF, which is typcially most accurate, has a weak progressive low which would generate only a few snowshowers and at most 1-2 inches of snow across the interior. The GFS on the otherhand, especially this mornings 06z run, shows this low rapidly intenisfying as it passes south and east of the coast. This scenario would drop several inches of snow inland along with gusty NE coastal winds. This GFS run has up to a foot or more of snow in the NW mountains. Any farther track south could spell the potentila for a heavy snow inland.

    This uncertainty will hopefully be mitigated over the next 24-48 hours as we come closer to the storm and the computer models hopefully come into agreement as to the evolution of this storm. At this point it does seem likely that at least some locations will see accumulating snowfall, with the potential for substantial snowfall if the low intensifies more than currently forecast. There are many variables in play as always…from available moisture, to track, to temperature of the air…all of this needs to be figured out. We hope to have better answers for you very soon.

    1. Thanks Mark. Exciting that you are getting snow showers. My husbands cousin who lives on Lake Ontario in Canada said the lake was angry yesterday and they were expecting snow

      1. We had a near whiteout here for about 5 min that dusted the ground and a few minutes later it was sunny. Gotta love the lake effect.

  10. Aside from the increased convection offshore, the 12Z GFS and 00Z EURO are in fairly good agreement for the first time.

  11. Doesn’t the 12Z GFS look like its trending more towards EURO with a further OTS… I haven’t seen the recent EURO but from last I heard am I wrong?

  12. To me a lot of the energy with the latest run of the GFS is over the fish. It looks like a grazing. I still think when all is said and done this will not be a big deal and be more of a nusiance event.

  15. im doing my snow dance 😀 even if we do not get a big storm we are still going to get the winter temperatures 😀 and im going skiing next weekend possibly 😀

  16. A light precip event, mostly rain for coastal areas, maybe a couple inches of snow for inland areas, higher elevations especially.

      1. oh im looking for their site since they barely do anything on the facebook page. Been about 2 weeks since they said anything

  18. I think someone forgot to hit the run button on the 12Z EURO, lol. Looking at the forecasted NAO values from the 00Z EURO, those sharply negative values that were predicted a few days ago have backed way off, even going slightly positive by this time next week.

  19. 12Z Canadian at 96 HOURS:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012112412&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr

    12Z GFS at 93 Hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F24%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=093&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

    For some reason, the 12Z Euro isn’t ready yet. Usually is by now.

    Euro was available at Wundermap. Shows a mostly OTS system, relatively weak
    until it passes our latitude.

    How Hum….

  21. 12z Euro continues with a track further south than the GFS. Most precip south of a Hartford to Boston line and very little NW of there.

    1. 850mb temps look cold enough for snow right down to the coast but Wunderground snow map not showing much in the way of accumulation.

  22. Hi Old Salty,

    Didn’t the 12z Euro looking a little more north? I thought it was a little better than 00z run with the storm getting stronger closer to coast on the 12z run. Just my thought.

    1. From What I cans see, the 0Z Euro run had Nothing at all.
      So yes, this is a huge change. Stay tuned for further developments.

  24. OS and TJ – the 12z and 0z Euro look nearly identical to me as far as impacts to SNE. Go to Wunderground and toggle back and forth between the 0z and 12z runs – virtually no difference.

  25. Just got back from Silicon Valley and what a beautiful area, big trees among company buildings and houses, people say there’s comparison between 128 here and there and I couldn’t disagree more, it was 5 times the size of 128 area and much newer and nicer, anyways just got back hope everyone had a good thanksgiving 🙂

    1. I think the comparison may be more in tech and not appearance. I often hear our area referred to as the new Silicon Valley. Heard it repeatedly by economists when talking about recession and why MA did better than many states

      Glad you had a nice trip. I’m due for a trip back. Would like to drive Seattle to San Diego as we have family all along the coast

      1. The size is much bigger, from what I saw Silicon Valley would stretch from 128 Woburn to Norwood at 128 but nice beautiful short skyscrapers (10-20fl) everywhere along it, it really was very very nice, have a good day everyone 🙂

        1. They make good use of there land bc instead of building 4 towers at 5 fl they just build 1 20 fl building which is ideal and being green 🙂

          2. It’s very nice there Vicki, well landscaped and a lot to do, nice roads capable of handling traffic, kids loved it, have a good night 🙂

    1. Great Discussion. Thank you for posting!

      Btw, here is the 18Z NAM at 84 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F24%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      Here is the 500MB vorticity chart for the same period:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F24%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      And the 1000-500MB thickness chart for the same Period:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F24%2F2012+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=1000_500_thick&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

      This would be a set up for some snow. amounts would depend upon
      how quickly it intensifies or even if it does???

      1. From the NWS service, Upton NY:

        MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON TUESDAY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES…THE
        RESULTING SURFACE LOW THAT FORMS AND THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH. THE 12S GFS KEEPS THE HIGH A BIT STRONGER AND FARTHER
        SOUTH…BRIEFLY SLOWING THE SURFACE LOW DOWN AND THEREFORE MAKING IT THE SLOWER SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF CAME INTO LINE WITH THE 12Z
        GFS/12Z CMC TODAY SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY TUESDAY EAST OF THE DELMARVA REGION. BOTH HAVE THE LOW QUICKLY
        DEEPENING SOMEWHERE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND TRACKING NORTHEAST. IN REGARDS TO POPS…HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
        INTO WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY KEPT CHANCE BECAUSE THE TIMING HAS BEEN CHANGING RUN TO RUN. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE…THE 12Z ECMWF CAME
        IN COOLER THAN BOTH THE 00Z RUN AND THE 12Z GFS. WITH THE LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE GFS…LIKELY WOULD SEE SNOW INLAND…RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COASTS/NYC AND RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND WITH MOSTLY SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM. WITH THE
        ECMWF…IT WOULD BE A SNOWIER SOLUTION WITH SNOW EVEN OVER LONG ISLAND FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. WITH THE APPARENT DIFFERENCES…HAVE THEREFORE MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS/HPC FOR TEMPERATURES AND RESULTED WITH SNOW AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR INTERIOR AREAS THEN RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE END OF THE EVENT FOR NYC/LONG ISLAND/COASTAL AREAS.

  28. 12Z Euro NAO:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zecmwfnao.gif

    2012112412z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 39.8164368
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: -96.4329376
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: -101.724358
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -74.4383469
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -19.8195
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -86.9323578
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -133.891312
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -57.3536987
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: 24.014061
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: 54.6290092
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: 25.5167236

  29. If you look at the CPC 8-14 day outlook a lot of the country forecasted to have above normal temps. If we get wintry precipitation from this next week it could be awhile before the next round

        1. OK that wasn’t 96 hours. Was supposed to be.
          Place your mouse over the 96 hours and have a look.
          Then scroll to the right and have a look at the precip.

          If this were to happen, we’d have a very serious snow
          storm on our hands.

          HUGE model disparity going on here, but I presume
          old reliable, the Euro will win out.

          We shall see.

  35. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    In which layer of the atmosphere is ozone most commonly found?

    A) Stratosphere
    B) Troposphere
    C) Mesosphere
    D) Ionosphere

    Answer is A) Stratosphere.

  36. long time reader–first time poster. A question–when differentiating between “the coast” and “inland”, is there an understood cut-off? Selfishly, I live in Natick–I’m definitely not on the coast–but am I considered inland, or is that more like out by 495?

    1. Hi Dave. I am in Framingham. Ill let the experts answer definitively but I think of us as 128/495 belt.

      Welcome. We have all made guesses for amount of snow Logan will receive this winter. Feel free to toss out a number and ill add it to the list. Just make sure I tell you I saw it

      1. I call the 128-495 belt the storm killer zone( merrimack valley) because either the storm is to far south or to close for alot of pure snow storm.. always less than most. I would say east of i95 , 128/495 belt south of the pike, north of the pike and higher elevations. those are what i usually listen to. and since i live in billerica i hope for alots of snow in the 495 belt. 🙂

    2. Hi Dave welcome to the blog, natick is inland but I think the line is more coastal plain and inland and that’s basically rt1 or highway 95 from boston to providence

      1. Hi Dave!

        Charlie, I like your description. I think that’s the best way to explain it. During a certain weather event that has different ramifications along they coastline, the mets will clearly show how far the rain will extend from the coast.

        1. Got it…so split the difference between the forecast from “along the coast” and “inland” and I’m in there somewhere…sounds good.

  37. @ToddWBZ: Chances for snow have gone up for much of Southern New England Tue/Wed heaviest amounts appear to be in SE MA. #wbz

    @ToddWBZ: Storm doesn’t look large at this time but several inches quite possible…maybe 6″. Max amounts?!?! #wbz

  39. Reading through everything I see online and I see more and more of a chance of some measurable snow in SNE. BL temps as always will be a big player near the coast. But I think as storm nears the area it will deepen and keeps the coast all snow. QPF will be an issue bc it’s a fast mover.

    1. I am with you on that Hadi…I think we will see 3-6″ of snow in SNE. Potentially more if it deepens quick enough.

  42. This will not be a major system. I am thinking if we do get snow it will be a level 1 snow event with some areas reaching the low end of a level 2 snow event.
    Level 1: Dusting to 4 inches
    Level 2 5-10 Inches
    Level 3 10-20 Inches
    Level 4 20 plus inches.

  44. It will be interesting to see what he has to say. One thing looks certain more snow than last winter.
    Will be interesting to see what the 0z runs have to say and if Notre Dame beats USC to make to the National Championship Game on January 7th.

    1. Take that all the way too the bank. Cold and snowy with a vengeance from mid December on, with a little bit maybe early week. I think the jury is still out on that. Well if my winter outlook holds atleast maybe I will be able to afford the oil with all that money from snow removal .

      1. If it continues as it has been you can afford the oil too. We have not had heat on once yet during the day and it is on for two hours only at night.

          1. Yep. It’s only on at night in my grandsons room and my daughter and SIL room. And 30 minutes before we get up in the master.

            1. That’s why I keep saying we are not below normal – or any normal I’ve ever known. I still sit on the deck in the evening when my husband cooks on the grill

  45. Is there still a meteor shower? I saw a shooting star at Humarock and my daughter and husband saw one on the way home in wayland

    1. We are not in a principal meteor shower but you can always see random ones at any time. There was a really bright one the other night that many people saw.

  48. I am not a big fan of the NAM. During the summer months when thunderstorms were in the forecast it over did the instability by a good margin.

  49. And the NAM is OTS. But it also doesn’t do well at 84hrs as we get closer it should come around. Wait and see. Come on ooz run gfs

  50. Now is this model getting its act together and the other model runs come in with this solution or is the NAM an outlier here.
    As I said earlier I don’t expect a big snow event even if this system affects us.

    1. Very disappointed in the NAM, but I guess that was the trend.

      I’m guessing 0Z GFS is also OTS as will be the Euro and Canadian.

      I suppose there is hope.

      However, We have come full circle.
      First it looked like a lakes cutter, then a hit and now OTS.
      Hope the whole Winter doesn’t go like this.

      😀

            1. After seeing that, I wont be surprised if BB on the 11pm newscast differs from his own 7:30 pm discussion……(less of a snow chance)

            2. And, look how low the dewpoints are now, so the airmass is likely to be dry in our area….I dont think precip gets north of Long Island or Block Island.

  55. There should be pretty much complete model consensus come Sunday evening.

    With Barry’s winter outlook coming tomorrow evening, I feel like a kid anticipating Christmas morning! 🙂

  56. This is a cold, dry pattern. The type of snowfall coming up Tuesday night will be typical of what we see the first half of the winter. Not saying we can’t get something more significant but the general rule will be lighter events and continued cold.

    We are in a cold regime again. Nothing majorly wrong is going on in the atmosphere. It’s just weather. The leaves turned 2-3 weeks earlier this year in response to colder weather (yes the sun is the main driver but in combination with the overall temperature pattern). Regardless of the chill, here come the winter moths. 😛

  57. If your going to have the cold and no snow it is what I like to call wasted cold.
    Looking like a nusiance event with the next system and would not be surprised if misses us entirely.

  61. Nws update…………

    00Z GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL
    TROUGH TUE INTO WED. THIS YIELDS WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS AND FARTHER
    OFFSHORE WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER
    THE NEW 00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A MORE AMPLIFIED MID
    LEVEL TROUGH YIELDING STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
    BOTH SOLUTIONS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
    THRU OUT THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
    WHERE MARGINALLY COLD BLYR MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

    THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH QPF AND FAR INLAND DOES
    APPRECIABLE QPF GET. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF AMPLITUDE TO THE
    LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND NA WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER
    SURFACE WAVE WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT/FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
    PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE MORE
    ROBUST UKMET/GEFS AND ECMWF AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LOW STATIC
    STABILITY ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED GIVEN COLD
    AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEARBY OCEAN WATERS. THUS IT WON/T
    TAKE MUCH TO SPIN UP MODEST CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
    HERE AND DEG OF UNCERTAINTY… THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP BOTH
    SOLUTIONS IN PLAY…WITH THE THEME BEING GREATEST RISK OF
    ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF MA PIKE.

    AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD…DRY AND COLD WEATHER
    PRECEDE THE STORM MON NIGHT AS WEAK CLIPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
    THE REGION. THIS SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH THE AREA DRY
    MON NIGHT AND THEN SETS UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
    TUE.

  62. The chill extends all the way to northern Florida…..

    Tallahassee, FL : 29F ……… Jacksonville, FL : 30F

    Closer to home:

    Mt Washington -0.4 F, West wind at 78.1 mph, gusting to 93.2 mph, for a wind chill of -36.6F.

  63. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHEASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…SOUTHERN NEW
    HAMPSHIRE…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

    THERE STILL IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY
    OF A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM AFFECTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUE
    INTO EARLY WED. THE STORM MAY TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO JUST
    GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME LIGHT
    SNOW…MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. HOWEVER THE STORM
    MAY TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST AND GIVE A PLOWABLE SNOW TO PORTIONS
    OF CONNECTICUT…RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTH OF MASS PIKE IN
    MASSACHUSETTS.

    STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
    HIGH.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    1. 00Z GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH TUE INTO WED. THIS YIELDS WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS AND FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THE NEW 00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A MORE AMPLIFIED MID
      LEVEL TROUGH YIELDING STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
      BOTH SOLUTIONS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT THRU OUT THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE MARGINALLY COLD BLYR MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

      THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH QPF AND FAR INLAND DOES APPRECIABLE QPF GET. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF AMPLITUDE TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND NA WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER SURFACE WAVE WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT/FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
      PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE MORE ROBUST UKMET/GEFS AND ECMWF AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LOW STATIC STABILITY ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED GIVEN COLD AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEARBY OCEAN WATERS. THUS IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO SPIN UP MODEST CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE HERE AND DEG OF UNCERTAINTY… THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP BOTH
      SOLUTIONS IN PLAY…WITH THE THEME BEING GREATEST RISK OF
      ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF MA PIKE.

  64. If a flatter track persist but we do get into the precip field, look for snow to fall from the sky but nothing visual.

  65. Hop on over to the updated blog. 🙂

    I’ll be braving the bluster today to try to finish up the outside decorating while the sun shines on the 2 sides of the house I need to work on (and thankfully they are not on the side the wind is coming from which will also help), then it’s fully diving into the inside decorating which will be accomplished between this afternoon and Friday (big house). All lights go on December 1!

    I’ll be back to check in later and write The Week Ahead sometime this evening. 🙂

  66. Hi All-I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!

    I have really enjoyed the weather this November. It has been a little colder on average than I thought it would be. This November has been a lot sunnier than average. 19-21 days have been sunny or partly sunny depending on where you live in Massachusetts.. November is usually the cloudiest month with only 14-15 days of sun during the month. It has been about 2 degrees cooler at Boston, Providence, and Hartford. To the north in Concord NH and Burlington VT average temperatures have been about normal. Another interesting note is the further inland you go away from the coast the high temps have been close to normal, while the low temps have been far below normal. The clear, calm nights and the abundance of sunshine has caused these these big temp swings.

    The Tuesday/Wednesday system looks like a non event at this point and truthfully it has looked like that for a few days. Not sure what some of the mets who were pushing this thing were thinking, but hey everyone interprets data differently, right?

    1. Excellent post. It sure has looked like that. Time to move on. Great points on Novembers weather cloudy/ sunny, I did not know that.

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