Cold Then A Thaw

140 Comments

8:20AM

A cold front passed by overnight, quietly in southern New England, but not before putting down several inches of snow in some of the northern New England ski areas! It’s also been cold enough up there to be making snow, so a bit of an early start to the season for some.

The cold front will come to a halt just south of New England today and mild air to the southwest and west of the region will ride up over it, creating lots of clouds today and Saturday. Some light precipitation may break out on Saturday but not looking for a heavy event. By Sunday, the front will have returned northward as a warm front and will introduce a thaw that will last a few days, until a cold front brings us back to the chill around the middle of next week.

Forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind N  up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 24-29. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. A few periods of light snow (no significant accumulation) and rain. Highs 35-40. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Patchy fog late. Temperatures steady 35-40. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 43. High 55.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain showers. PM snow showers. Low 40. High 50.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 40.

140 thoughts on “Cold Then A Thaw”

  1. Thanks TK.
    Sunday looks like a good day to put up the outdoor decorations with those mild temperatures.

    1. All done here just have a few odds & ends to finish up today. Saturday I’m taking a walk in nearby woods and Sunday I’m finishing the last of the fallen leaves that sneaked into corners since last week and a few branches that came down in the wind several days ago. 🙂

  2. Brett Andersen has a pretty tame forecast for the rest of the month.

    Just enjoy December for the holidays and lack of slush in your shoes.

    1. I am happy as long as we’re not overly rainy and warm. I’d take cold, dry, and snowless any time over that. We’ll get some snow showers…

  4. Brrrr !!! Impressive fall of temps continuing this morning, with Boston down to 30F at 10am and a dewpoint of 6F !!!!

  6. Thanks tk, I don’t think 60’s is outa reach early next week, and then it’s early still but rain moves in by the end of next week, it continues to appear winter will move after Christmas but after the new year for sure 🙂

  7. Brett has average or above average temps through Christmas week, but also mentions flip flopping is possible. I guess we shall see but this sounds a lot like last year 🙁

  9. It looks as we go towards mid month the NAO goes negative and the AO is negative during that time period.
    Nusiance snow showers tomorrow as warm air aloft moves in.

  10. Texas is taking the country’s jobs, if it ever succeded it would wipe clean this country of jobs, why would u keep a comp in America when u can have the comp in Texas tax free and not have to spend millions on parks or roads for the community, there r 1.5 million people moving to Texas every 8yrs!!! Have a great day e everyone, sorry for the rant, just want people to recognize where we r going 🙂

    1. I wonder what percentage of the jobs are decent paying jobs and offer the employee access to health insurance ?

  12. My aunt from TX is up here visiting for the holidays. She grew up here but has been living in TX for the last 30 years or so. All shes been saying since she got here is how much she would love to move back.

    1. My sister-in-law (the flight attendant) lived in Irving and Austin. She liked Austin but TX wasn’t high on her list of places she’s lived. Some of Perry’s plans IMHO will come back to bite him and the residents. I think the schools are already feeling the shortfall. Either way, I’ll stay right where I am.

  13. Snowing again here in northern CT. Been snowing lightly the past 3-4 hours and had a burst of heavier snow that coated the ground. The NWS has us painted in up to inch tomorrow as well.

    I’m pushing 9″ so far this month at my house after 5″ in the noreaster, 3.5 ” Tuesday, and the little bit more today/tomorrow. I realize that’s the exception, that the norm, so I’ll take it! That puts me exactly where I was last year at this time. Hopefully not a bad sign for things to come….

  14. Wow, the tropical cyclone Bopha has absolutely explosively intensified today. It will be interesting to see if it remains at a low latitude or gets directed northward and northeastward at some point, eventually transitioning to extra tropical. Maybe an opportunity to change the pattern in the long range.

      1. Bopha is passing through Yap in western Micronesia which is in the western part of the North Pacific Ocean. I am very familiar with forecasting tropical cyclones in this area.

          1. I have seen NW Pacific tropical cyclones totally change the northern hemisphere weather pattern, but that is rather rare. Usually they just impact a fairly large area for a temporary time, interacting with whatever pattern is already in place.

    2. Is that the one in the pacific NW? Husbands cousin was flying Boston to Seattle today to return home. She’s also a weather buff – lives on a bluff overlooking puget sound. I would love that view with a storm coming in.

  15. Beautiful day today. Would like it a tad colder, but I’ll take a day like this one. However, I am getting depressed looking at the long-range forecast. It looks like a repeat of last year! I can’t believe it. Not just one day in the 50s but multiple and recurring each week. Ugh!!! Whoever said it’s supposed to get cold in mid December (HM) looks to be wrong. I’ve now seen every long-range forecast in the book, and none suggest prolonged cold. Most, in fact, don’t even see many evenings or nights in the 20s for goodness sake. The only consolation is that my daughter in Minnesota will be seeing a prolonged cold snap with snow, ice, and real cold (single digits and teens at night), after a brief 3 day mild spell. But, she’ll be traveling to Boston on the 18th of December and will likely be going from a white to a green landscape, 20s to 40s.

    1. I said cold and snowy starting mid December. This will be a cold and snowy winter I have 0 doubts. No two winters are alike and this year will not be an exception. In preparation for a very cold winter, I filled my oil tank early at half full to cut the cost down.oil is going to hit the roof. Of course I could be completely wrong but I have a feeling I’m not.

      1. Time will tell. Could end up being the first half is colder than last year and dry and the second is colder and white! I am banking on it with my 55.7 prediction :).

  17. AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What form of space weather can impact the migratory patterns of birds?
    A. Solar flares
    B. Solar wind
    C. Radio blackouts
    D. Geomagnetic storms

    Of course, I got another one wrong.

  19. Happy Meteorological Winter !

    Its like the EURO knew it was Dec. 1st, today’s EURO 0z run (say day 8 thru 10) are colder and stormier. Its last few runs have been very inconsistent at days 8 thru 10, so…….one day, it projects the NAO to be positive in 8 to 10 days………….today, it now projects negative for that time period.

    Well, with a NE wind, its 37F in Marshfield. Despite all of this recent chill, the Boston Harbor water temp has maintained at 49F.

  20. Good Morning Everyone,

    Anyone have the NAO values projections? I know Old Salty would post them but he’s not here for a couple of days. Its snowning in Quincy!!

  21. dusting here overnight. snowing very lightly right now.

    (we still have patches of snow for the “storm” earlier in the week) didn’t the weather channel name it Adonis or something? Surely this mornings flurries have a name.

  23. Snowing in framingham and all is white in a very short period. The difference in the consistent cold and the kind of cold (maybe). It’s been a raw cold TK my porch is finally just below 39. I wonder if it’s for the same reason the snow is sticking today right off the bat and didnt the other day.

    1. It has been a raw cold Vicki. I have certainly felt that in my short walks from the parking lot to work in the mornings and at night especially.

  24. margusity is all wound up this morning about something around the 10th. the only thing that gives it any hope is that it’s from the EURO.

  25. I am going with B for the answer to the trivia question.
    Enjoying the snow flakes today since this could be the last of it we see for a while.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    Has been snowing in Sudbury and we have a light coating. It’s very appropriate to have snow on the 1st of Dec.! I’ve been up since 6:00 and already started decorating – I could hardly wait. Most of our decorations are inside, except for the front door. Last night we listened to a Celtic Woman cd – I have most every one of them.

    John – I am hoping for your forecast to be right! My gut feeling says you are right – especially re: the cold temps. I don’t really believe this winter is going to be like last winter. I certainly hope not.

      1. In a way, I hope so – but not in a bad way. Can you imagine if we had a “winter Sandy”? Not a good scenerio. But I s’pose it would have a name – (sigh) whatever those names are.

      1. Me too. We used to have a few of those days when I was younger. I wonder what year was the last time we had a day that struggled to get to 0F? I don’t think it’s happened for a long time – could be wrong. I will have to look it up.

      2. I couldn’t find the exact figure but supposedly just last year, Jan. 24, we had sub-zero temps. I can’t remember that. Also, on Feb. 9, 1934, Boston got to -18 degrees.

  27. Thought it was chilly locally….

    Fairbanks, AK….for the month of November….

    Avg temp : -8.8F for the month, a whopping 11.4F below normal

    Highest temp the last 7 days of the month…..-11F

    Uh oh….compared to Nov. 2011 : -8.2F, 10.8F below normal. I was hoping it was going to show a contrast. (all data from Taunton NWS climate section)

  28. Here is another temperature stat closer to home. Hartford, CT had its first month with below normal temps since March 2011.
    It was also the driest November on record. Compare to the shoreline of CT which had is snowiest November on record with 8.4 inches of snow.

    1. I was,thinking how dry it was too. I think of Nov as a cold, wet dreary rather in attractive month and this past nov was very nice

  29. Most surface pressures this morning are around 30.60 inches. High is still strong and close by, its going to be quite a cold day inland, away from the coastline.

  31. Temp 30, Steady light snow and ground whitened here in JP.

    Here is the 0Z EURO NAO forecast:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zecmwfnao.gif

    2012120100z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -27.3191967
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 40.3168411
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 107.807365
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 33.389576
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: 11.3163548
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: 18.4656754
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -7.37297106
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -39.7002716
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -116.93914
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -116.894867
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -40.3292542

      1. Henry Margusity of AccuWeather. He is a good met overall but almost always has to backtrack on his snowfall predictions. 😉

  37. -NAO and +PNA coming soon! 🙂

    As of this posting snowing nicely here in Boston for a change with much of grass surfaces covered.

  38. The warm front just came through, it went from 29.7 at 6am to 32.3 at 940 am and in last hr it has risen to 36.3 degrees

  40. If Henry is calling for snow this far in advance it is not going to happen. Is this guy looking going by THe Farmers’ Almanac which is calling for some snow in New England and wintry mix for Mid Atlantic during that time frame???

  41. From 27 to 32 and close to an inch here. Sticking on main roads a surprising amount and small side roads completely covered. A bit slick

  44. The NAO is negative during that time and when its like that there is the possiblity of a storm forming on the east coast.

  46. I hope that some of you optimists are right. I’m worried, however, that the NAO values are being overemphasized. The most important ingredient for actual snow to fall is temperature. And, at the coast, it’ll be marginal at best, at worst in the 40s and changing to rain (I am talking about the storm that some suggest could happen around the 10th). In part this is because to our north and northwest we really won’t be seeing much in terms of winter temps over the coming 10 days. I am not against models, but I think they should be interpreted in light of observations on the ground and some commonsense. Between now and the 10th coastal areas will hardly see any frost. And after that what I am seeing is a return to marginal cold (40s during the day, 30 at night). This is not a good set-up for snow. Am I seeing this completely wrong (again)?

  47. Close to an inch in Pelham, NH, it is nice to see. It looks like it is coming to an end and when we all wake up tomorrow morning it will be gone. Whether HM is right or not it is nice to dream about. I still stick to my theory we are going to see one real big snowstorm this year and it will be early in the season.

  49. Light little snow here in Milton, covering the cars, grass and leaves a bit. It’s that nice fluffy snow so it looks quite pretty. Roads and sidewalks are clear.

    1. From NWS:

      COLD AIR DAMMING PERSISTS AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRES
      CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC. AT 17Z TEMPS WERE STILL IN 20S ALONG AND
      NW OF A LWM-SFZ-BDL LINE. COASTAL FRONT SE BOS TO S TAN TO PVD AT
      18Z AND MAY BE SLOWER TO MOVE NW THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED. AREAS OF
      LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF BERKSHIRES IN
      OVERRUNING.

      1. Thanks, OS. The mets were off with their forecast, including Matt Noyes last night. Cold air damming is indeed in play, more than expected. It’s pretty out there. Unfortunately, we’re in for a serious warm-up, with temps we haven’t really seen since October. That’s really disappointing to me. Matt Noyes has mentioned that he expects a mild December. He also said he thought there would be some brief arctic blasts. This has me very concerned about the winter going forward. Although we really didn’t have much in terms an arctic blast last December, we did have a few in January, and they were so incredibly fleeting. This pattern could be a mini disaster for winter people like myself who just want some consistency. I don’t even have to have snow, just give me a 6-week period of consistent cold, enough so I can skate on natural ice and feel revitalized. I don’t see that in the cards. In fact, I don’t even see the arctic blasts MN is referring to, do you? Anywhere, on any model? Let’s not call days in the 30s and nights in the upper teens and lower 20s an “arctic blast?”

  52. From the looks of the past couple of GFS runs the cold air does seem to come down and stay awhile after the 10th with a couple of storm potentials. I know its the GFS but it at least its showing cold and not warm like this coming week. Also the storm around the 10th on the 12z gfs looks like the last storm weak and progressive. Any thoughts?

    1. I have one. Lets wait till winter starts on December 22 and than start to focus on the pattern than, when it matters. For the football fans tragedy at arrow head field as Nfl player kills self in front of team. Before that killed his girlfriend. What the hell is the matter with these monstors.

  54. Very different on coast south of Boston. Its been raining since about 10am, brown earth everywhere and the temp is around 38F. I keep seeing Logan around 30F, coastal front btwn here and there.

  55. Answer to AccuWeather Trivia Quiz,

    AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What form of space weather can impact the migratory patterns of birds?
    A. Solar flares
    B. Solar wind
    C. Radio blackouts
    D. Geomagnetic storms

    The answer is D. The winners are retrac and rainshine.

  56. 12Z Euro for 12/11:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    Here are the NAO prediction for the 12Z Euro:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zecmwfnao.gif

    2012120112z ECMWF RUN NAO Values
    NAO value for forecast hour 000: 8.93047142
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 88.3609314
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 80.6429901
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: -2.18044281
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -5.75930405
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -51.9718552
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -116.152504
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -117.633217
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -151.864349
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: -166.909943
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: -125.500946

  57. winter weather advisory posted by the NWS. for up to 1 inch of snow and up to a 10th of ice
    …LIGHT ICING DUE TO AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
    THIS EVENING…

    CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-012-013-RIZ001-020445-
    /O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0013.121202T0100Z-121202T0800Z/
    HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
    WESTERN ESSEX MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
    NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
    VERNON…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…FRAMINGHAM…LOWELL…LAWRENCE…
    MILFORD…WORCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…FOSTER…SMITHFIELD
    344 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2012

    …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
    3 AM EST SUNDAY…

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
    WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8
    PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST SUNDAY.

    * LOCATIONS…INTERIOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT AND NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND

    * HAZARD TYPES…LIGHT SNOW WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH…ALONG WITH
    LESS THAN A TENTH OF ICE ACCRETION.

    * TIMING…AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
    ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

    * IMPACTS…LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
    UNTREATED ROADS…PARKING LOTS AND SIDEWALKS.

    * WINDS…NORTHEAST UP TO 5 MPH.

    * TEMPERATURES…IN THE LOWER 30S.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
    FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS…BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
    EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE MAY MAKE DRIVING AND
    WALKING DIFFICULT ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN
    TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING…MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY
    CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY
    DEVELOP.

  59. Thanks for posting OS. We r in uxbridge so will plan to leave a bit earlier thanks to your kind warning. It’s a fairly steady snizzle here now

  60. i know its far out buy next saturday there could be a chance of a snow/freezing rain and rain event for new england anyone else seeing it?

    2. 12Z Euro for 7 days out:

      http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif

      Looks rain event for all of SNE for sure. BUT 7 days out still.

      Here is the 18Z GFS for early Sunday AM on 12/9:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121201%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_174_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=174&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=12%2F01%2F2012+18UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=71&nextImage=yes

      Rainmaker. 😀

            1. Got it thanks!

              ON THE COMING PATTERN CHANGE… POSSIBLE MIDWEST WINTER STORMS DEC 9-10 -11 And after DC 15 for the NORTHEAST
              by Wxrisk.com on Saturday, December 1, 2012 at 3:44pm ·

              There is some concern / speculation as to whether not there is going to be a significant East Coast snowstorm because one of the more reliable weather models– the European has shown an East Coast snowstorm for the past two model runs. In this particular case I do not agree with that idea — I think that DEC 10-11 Low will be inland situation and possibly as far west as the Ohio Valley but certainly for the Appalachians. The real cold arrives in the eastern U.S. and especially the East Coast after December 10-11…. And there is a FAIR chance that the pattern develops is such a way as to support significant East Coast snowstorm around the 15th of December. Of course it’s just a chance at this point it’s a little more than informed speculation.

              There are some serious the weather changes showing up on the weather models now with a lot of consistency and I feel pretty confident that the middle of December –and probably through to the end of the month — is going to be substantially different from what we seen over the past two or three weeks.

      2. I wouldn’t worry about rain or snow this far out. Storm is out there to watch. The NAO is negative, storm will be cold.

  62. This is a rare occasion that I favor the 12z GFS over the 12z Euro. If that storm does form, I’m going to bank on blocking being so strong that the main impacts are south of New England.

        1. Mother Nature likes to celebrate our anniversary. Dec 9 has seen its share of big snow storms. I think we are due for another. It will be something fun to watch as you say regardless

  65. I do not see any snow for at least the next 10 days temp is 33.9 🙂 have a good night everyone, oh yeah received .7 of an inch here in north attleboro making the grand total to date at 3.2 inches

  66. Snow in Woburn was 0.5 inch, but with the cold locked in for the moment it is just sitting there. It will be gone late Sunday as the warm air wins out.

    Though relative to normal the pattern will be milder than the balance of November as we move through the coming week, the longer term pattern is still a chilly/dry one. This will return as we get toward mid December. As expected, the temporarily inconsistent Euro has come more into line with the not-so-bad 12z Saturday GFS run and removed the storm threat as it was for around the 10th.

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