Storm Update

484 Comments

11:43PM

Low pressure has redeveloped in the Mid Atlantic and will move northeastward across southeastern New England through Thursday. This will continue to throw a complex package of precipitation into southern New England with snow inland and rain at the coast, a wavering rain/snow line with some sleet, which will eventually push further northwestward during the early hours of Thursday. Precipitation will taper off during the day Thursday as the low pressure area moves just northeast of the region.

Here are the major factors with the storm…

Wind: From the east 25-35 MPH gusting 40-60 MPH along the coast especially south of Boston during the morning hours of Thursday. Minor wind damage possible.

Coastal flooding: Astronomical tides are not too high, but some minor flooding and splash over is possible during the mid to late morning Thursday.

Snowfall: Amounts are expected to range from nothing across southeastern MA and Cape Cod to slushy coatings to 1 inch or so from Boston north and west into the immediate suburbs, building up to a few inches in the 495 belt north of the Mass Pike, building further to 6-10 inches in higher elevations of north central MA into southern NH.

Behind the system as colder air starts to filter in, some snow showers may dust the ground in areas that did not see much during the storm.

Looking ahead… A chilly/drier day Friday behind the storm. Another low pressure area moves off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday and it will be cold enough to snow in all areas here, but the track of the storm may be too far south and east of New England to produce much in the way of significant snow. Another chilly day Sunday as dry weather returns.

Peaking at the end of 2012 and the start of 2013: Arctic cold front will bring the coldest air of the early winter so far, probably around Tuesday which is the 1st day of January. This will be the beginning of a chilly/dry pattern which is expected to dominate the first month of the New Year.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, RI…

OVERNIGHT: Rain Cape Cod, SE MA, coastal MA, mix just inland eastern MA, RI, NH Sea Coast, snow further inland (see accumulations above). Rain/snow line pushing further northwest toward dawn. Lows from near 30 far NW of Boston to near 40 Cape Cod area. Wind E increasing to 20-30 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH coastal areas especially south of Boston, NE-N 10-20 MPH elsewhere.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Lighter precipitation mainly rain/drizzle except mix far northwest, tapering and becoming intermittent in the afternoon. Highs from 35 far NW to 45-50 Cape Cod. Wind variable from SE to S then W 10-20 MPH over SE MA and RI, variable to N and eventually NW at similar speeds elsewhere.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered rain/snow showers becoming all snow showers with a few scattered dustings. Lows 25-30. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow or snow showers. Low 18. High 30.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 18. High 30.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Partly cloudy. Snow showers late. Low 21. High 34.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 18.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 24.

484 thoughts on “Storm Update”

    1. Anything can happen Sue but right now it looks like as things reorganize in the atmosphere, a ridge pops up in the SE, the flow flattens, and the next wave doesn’t amplify very much and moves more to the east than to the north.

  2. Not directly related to tonight’s storm, but wanted to share…

    Ars Technica posted an article about the Euro and GFS models today. It centered around how well each predicted Sandy, but it also broke down the real-world (computational and financial) reasons why the Euro is “king” these days in a manner that a layman (like me! 🙂 ) could understand.

    I found it to be an interesting read… but since I have no way of knowing, I’m also curious to know whether they got it mostly right, or if they botched/omitted any critical details.

  3. Thanks tk, I’ve got rain with wet snowflakes mixing in, roads r just slushy in spots but r mainly wet, if we just wait till late morning I won’t have to shovel so that’s good, total snowfall here .9 and it’s a wet .9, it’s like cold soup, have a great night 🙂

  5. 7 minutes ago from Harvey Leonard Twitter!!!

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    Rain & wind for a.m. commute in and around Boston, but chances of a Sat. aft’n. & Sat. night snowstorm are increasing.

  6. The wundermap kills me I can’t get the thing to work now… But lets see if we get a trend with gfs and other models.

  7. Low showing up nicely on radar, just south of Long Island ……

    The coastal front is amazing. We’ve seen the mild air work into the eastern half of southern New England. Made it into Portsmouth, NH, 37F I believe with rain. It sits just off the coast of Maine, with Portland, ME at 26F and the Portland harbor buoy at 35F.there’s a buoy just south of Bar Harbor with an air temp of 39F and the one at Eastport, ME is 35F. Interesting to see what happens during the morning as the low gets closer.

    Alright, Boston’s got a decent shot at snow this weekend. Probably somewhere like Pembroke too. But I’ll keep my enthusiam tempered for eastern Marshfield as a N or NE wind is directly off the water in my neighborhood.

    1. Just remember they said snowstorm with this one too and look we got nothing, why am I always the one on here that has to say that snow event does not look like a big deal, I think possible snowshowers but in no way gonna jump right in like everyone else and just predict snow, what did everyone get from this possible snowstorm? I got nothing 🙂

      2. I guess it has changed since last night. Several inches expected and looks to hold that way. So much for this dry pattern. Storm looks to arrive on Saturday afternoon/ night.

      3. Charlie if someone were to say that most fire engines in the U.S. were red you would come back and say no that most of them were green or yellow…it’s just your nature 🙂

    3. If you recall, I talked about 2 storms in the transition between the mild December and a cold/dry January.

      The short term pattern (now) is not that dry.

      The long term pattern is indeed dry still.

      1. I respectfully do not agree with the dry pattern now or later this winter. The tone has been set with one storm after another. Not all will be snow obviously, but most will. Still calling for above average.

  10. Still haven’t been able to get out with my sons and nephews quick enough to go sledding, good grief!! Bring ur umbrella

  14. I don’t have access to euro QPF but I am guessing somewhere around 1 inch QPF for Sat storm when looking at all free euro outputs.

  20. Thats not an UGH thats a YEAH right now!!! Hopefully the YEAH holds.
    Reading the hazardous weather outlook from the NWS out of Upton, NY and there saying a moderate chance of warning level snowfall across Southern CT and the NYC area. Still time for this to change but hopefully not change in the wrong direction.

  23. Tom looking at radar that coastal front in Maine is just off the water. The NAM was clearly way too warm for this area.

    1. Agreed ….. The Portland Harbor Buoy air temp is over 40F and the ones all the way up to Eastport are 35F to 40F, but as you say, not going to make it to your location. In fact, that could help enhance the snowfall to its north and west.

    2. 40.1 F air temp at Portland, ME harbor buoy with an E-NE wind (070 degrees)

      Eastport’s buoy, likewise E-NE (070) air-temp at 36.3F

      South of Bar Harbor E wind (090) air-temp at 38.7F

  25. Yep was just thinking that.

    I have a nice feeling about this weekend storm. Storms want to follow past storms!! Lets hope. N

  28. just read the NWS discussion from this morning. I want to frame it and put it on my wall except for the part that says “big bust potential”. I’ll just white-out that piece. How about that 959 number they put on it bottoming out at, at Nova Scotia, 2″ qpf….talk about eye candy.

    And it’s the King too.

    1. Went with 31 inches at Logan ….. couldnt get that all in one storm, could we ?

      Whats the Weather Channel’s next storm name ?

      1. Did it really.

        TWC screwed themselves with that stupid naming thing. If they were going to do anything they should have just done a category system that takes into account pressure, winds, snowfall rates, cold etc…

        Again, a cheesy, transparent and really pathetic marketing stunt.

          1. I saw one of the mets on CNBC reporting the last “storm” last week and the hosts were flat laughing at the guy as he was trying to trump up the name. Nothing personal against the guy but it was well deserved. I stopped watching TWC about five years ago now.

  29. Good morning. It feels as this is pretty much as advertised. Guessing we had several inches until rain came as advertised and we now have slop. Good job everyone here and the TV mets I saw. Wind doesn’t sound as strong as in night but rain is loud so may be wrong pouring rain of an hour ago has diminished but its still steady and heavy. Temp is 39.6

  30. Thanks, TK.

    We got about 3 inches of heavy, wet snow in Sudbury. Right now it is 39 degrees and it is just raining. There is some wind – I can see the tops of the trees moving but there is not a lot of wind around here at this point.

  32. In regards to this weekend storm we very well could receive several inches, all signs pointing in this direction. I do not think this goes out to sea. With this newest information I suspect tk will adjust his above thinking. 8+ is very likely.

    1. Thanks, John. Did you get called in last night or was it all rain in Boston? Looking less and less likely my sister in law will be flying here this weekend.

        1. Does the word “definitely” exist in the weather manuals 🙂 It does seem the TV mets are looking at it a bit closer but from OS’s comment I’m not sure it’s written in stone.

  33. Hadi, pack a cooler with snowfalls and reassemble them as a snowman when you get back to J.P. under the cover of night! It’d get some looks the next morning.

  35. Block Island, RI’s wind veering towards the SE. Low showing up nicely on radar…. Looks like its going to go over or just west of Block Island the next hr or so.

  36. Retrac thanks for the snowfall total. You are always one of my benchmarks as you seem to be in a favored snow growth area.

    Generally north and west of 495 and south of a RT 2 line it is about a 3-6″ storm. Well under the 6-11″ the NWS was going for on a line from CEF to ORH to LWM. Pretty close to my 3-5″ with isolated higher amounts in favored snow growth regions for that same area. Interesting fact that for being sanctioned as a thrown out outlier and for some reasons it was, the NAM’s snowfall 2-4″ amounts for the areas west of 495 and south of RT 2 were far better than the ECMWF which was close to a foot of snow in Worcester and 8″ in Springfield / CT River Valley and around 4-6″ in the 495 belt. NAM was somewhat better than the GFS too for snowfall amounts which was 8-9″ in Worcester and 6″ in CT River Valley. Yes NAM was too warm and too wet and but it should have been blended and not discounted in SNE.

    ECMWF is putting down a nice foot plus of snow in the southwest suburbs of Boston Saturday night and it has the support of its ensembles but not ready to go there. It has been way over-cooked lately. As an example ECMWF is putting out over 0.8″ QPF between 7am and 7pm at BOS today. It does have below zero morning lows in valley locations of SNE by 1/2/13….I will go there with it.

  38. Hadi,

    Looking at the radar and you may be in it already, there is a very heavy band of snow just south of the Augusta area. By its radar echoes, it appears to bean inch or more per hour.

  39. Sure thought it was going to snow for a prolonged period, but the feared East wind
    reared its ugly head! Started snowing lightly around 5:30PM, temp 36. By 7Pm it was raining, temp 38. By 9PM with that East wind, up to 39 or 40. By 9:30PM it was
    down to 36 with snow mixing in as the heavier precip arrived. By 11Pm it was down to 34, with some snow mixed in, but mostly rain. That East wind warmed the boundary layer and it was too thick for even reasonably heavy precip to break through and change to snow, although it sure tried hard. By 7Am it was up to 45 with heavy rain.

    And so the season goes.

    Next system, I fear will be OTS, but there is some time and it seems to have
    trended a bit West. We shall see.

    1. No way it goes ots, I’m almost 99% positive this will be a plowable event for most everyone. I’m surprised with you not on board. I believe after a few runs you will be.

  41. Its a good track for snow for the weekend. Will be interested in what the 12z runs have to say today. I think its a glancing blow at this point.

  42. JMA they tossed out NAM up here in Maine though due to being too warm. Did that make sense to you? I thought it did clearly.

  44. It was interesting watching the little snow we did get overnight accumulate more on the pavement than the grass and other ground surfaces. I even think someone mentioned it here last night too. The ground is def not frozen yet.

  45. Morning Everyone,

    Well a nice rainy morning and I don’t mind I’ll just relax with the dogs. So the euro and ensembles came in closer for the weekend storm did the ggem, ukmet, show anything yet? Gfs is still south but do we have anymore support?

    1. Canadian and Ukmet have it as a glancing blow. Something like 1-3 or 2-4
      in SE sections. Anyone else having trouble with the NCEP site?
      I cannot get on it.

    1. Thank you! Yes I have not been able to get on the NCEP site since 3am this morning. The lack of sleep last night was pretty awful.

    1. sighhhhh and jealous but so happy someone is able to enjoy a good winter storm! Have fun Hadi and be safe!!

  48. This afternoons 12Z runs and tonights 00Z runs will be crutial. Its crunch time for this. If they are still showing OTS or just a glancing pass, i dont see it changing all that much. At this point, id be happy with anything that completely covers the ground bc the way the temps look beginning of Jan, whatever we get will stick around for a while.

  49. Block Island with a light SW wind.

    Boston and Marshfield’s wind directions seem to be backing ever so slightly, while Cape Cod’s winds seem to be veering slightly. Guess a low track over the Cape Cod Canal looks likely.

  50. Ace,

    Did you see the cold air on the ensembles? It looks pretty intense. Thats when we should get a snow storm.

    1. The snow would be nice and fluffy and have that nice crunch to it when u walk. Daytime highs in the teens possible. That would be a huge shock to the system and i dont think anyone would argue it felt like winter, unless ur an eskimo!

  51. Boston Harbor tide guage running around +3ft. What should be a tide level of 9ft is at 12ft, with another ft left to rise. Minor coastal flooding begins at around 12ft. Heading up to Brant Rock to check it out.

    seeing some binovc (breaks in the overcast) towards our east and southeast. Hsnt been raining much the last couple of hours.

  52. SATURDAY…
    THIS IS WHERE THE DRAMA BUILDS AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF GOES BONKERS
    WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AT 06Z SUN THE
    ECMWF AS A 972 LOW OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND FURTHER BOMBING
    TO ABOUT 959 MB JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 18Z SUN! THIS RAPID
    DEEPENING GENERATES QPF OFF THE CHARTS WITH STORM TOTAL OF 2+
    /LIQUID/ OVER CAPE COD!

    OBVIOUSLY WE DON/T WANT TO CHASE A SINGLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN AT
    THIS TIME RANGE /STILL 60+ HRS OUT/…BUT EVEN THE 00Z ENSEMBLES
    GEFS & ECENS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH
    NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ECMWF. UKMET ALSO LENDS SOME SUPPORT
    TO THE STRONGER EC. HOWEVER BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS SHORT WAVE
    ENERGY MAY NOT PHASE UNTIL EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE…THUS TOO LITTLE
    TOO LATE IS ALSO A PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME.

    HOWEVER GIVEN ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED MORE ROBUST WILL LEAN PARTIALLY
    TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF AND AWAY FROM THE FLATTER/OPEN WAVE
    SOLUTION OF THE GFS. DON/T WANT TO GO 100 PERCENT EURO FOR TWO
    REASONS…1) TIME RANGE OF EVENT AND 2) WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE
    TRENDED STRONGER THE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE. SO FOR NOW WE WILL
    TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SAT
    INTO EARLY SUN ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GREATEST RISK
    FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEARS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. AIRMASS COLD
    ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT COULD MIX WITH RAIN OVER CAPE COD AND THE
    ISLANDS PENDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS INTENSITY.

      1. john, if we take that run of the euro verbatum, mixing and possible rain will come into the picture along the cape. The bullseye will be southern RI, southern bristol and southern plymouth counties in MA down to about the canal

  53. Hadi,

    I would not have discounted it, I would have blended it a bit with the other data. The GFS and ECMWF were both making critical thickness errors that were too easliy discounted by Taunton. That said, Grey, Me is an outstanding forecast office. I think they got a pretty good handle on it, though amounts maybe a bit overdone in parts of their region.

  54. If the forecast holds to start of 2013 it COULD be some of the coldest air we have seen in a few years. Its mild compared to January 2004 when lows were below zero even Boston one morning got down to -7. There were areas of SNE that remained in the single digits for a few days for highs.
    I agree were closing in on crunch time for the next POTENTIAL storm system. Anytime you have low pressure system on the east coast it needs to be watched. I remember a storm back in the 90s when it looked like a miss 24 hours prior but watched the 11pm news that night and what a change from a fish storm to getting several inches of snow.

    2. JJ, if i had a penny for every time u said, “anytime you have low pressure system on the east coast it needs to be watched,” id be loaded! It is so true though. So many variables to go either way.

  56. Woke up to 10″ of new snow here in central NY this morning and another 1-3″ expected today. Total snow depth is about 15-16″ with what they already had on the ground to start. Going outside with the kids in a minute. They are excited!

    Per NWS, we received 5″ back home in coventry, CT which exceeded my expectations there. Despite a change to rain, temperatures still holding in the 30’s there.

    Think the euro is overdone for the weekend storm but would not be surprised to see a 3-6″ event for eastern MA, CT, and RI.

  58. Mark…. 4.8 officially for interior CT recorded at Bradley and I was surprised but 2.5 at Sykorsky in Bridgeport recored where the records are kept for the shoreline. Of course the Northwest and Northeast Hills the big winners with the snow with a storm track like this.
    The shoreline currently has more snow for the season than the interior due largely to that record 8.3 inches of snow back on the 7th of November.

  59. Snowing heavily in Manchester, NH. I saw something this morning I haven’t seen in 35 years of following weather and the mets did a great job forecasting it. I left my house in Pelham, NH to drive to work in Manchester. It was pouring rain at my house with about 3 inches of snow/slush on ground. I got on 93N at exit 2 in Salem, NH; it was 38 degrees and pouring with very little snow on ground. I drove north to exit 3 about 2 miles up the road and it was blizzard conditions about 5 inches of snow on ground and 32 degrees (2 miles north). I have never seen conditions change so quickly.

  61. I did not see them mentioned in the latest snowfall reports. If they got something it is probably under .5 inches

  63. Okay so NAM is still weak and pretty much OTS. However, it does spread some light precip into our area which is better than previous runs that had nothing here and straight OTS. It could be a little trend to a snowier scenario.

  64. I think the 0z EURO is on steriods. I would be shocked if that happened. I think will see a tone down version for the 12z run.

  65. When you see these fantasy storms they rarely materialize. You got a better shot at seeing the sun come out tomorrow than that the 0z EURO run happening.

  66. Heavy rain in Sudbury now. Doppler radar shows heavy rain covering a pretty big-sized area. We still have snowy areas on ground – could be due to protection from all the trees.

  67. Just posted a video to FB if anyone wants to see 🙂

    Keep in mind once again HPC is discounting the NAM for the weekend.

  69. Hadi, I’m extremely jealous. Wish we saw some of that down here.

    There is now growing confidence that a significant winter storm will impact eastern sections of southern new england late Saturday into Sunday morning. The EURO is a bit too robust but models are all trending stronger and closer to the coast. I think we’re in for at least several inches of snow with the potential of much more. Finally, here is our chance. Mixing issues, if any, would be confined to the south coast, cape and islands if the storm were to pass close enough.

    1. Agree. I have no doubt this will materialize, and it may be big. The trend will continue this afternoon. I believe the jury is still out on the mixing. I think on the news tonight we see the mets putting out numbers. Still thinking ots tk.

      1. Wow John. You’re very confident. I hope you’re right. Still some things to iron out before we get a bomb to materialize over the benchmark. One thing about this storm however is that it is progressive so it won’t stick around long. It’s an intense, quick hitter but at this point, I’ll take that.

        1. You rubbed off on me with your confidence that you had for Xmas storm, LOL. But this one gets us. Guessing six inches Boston/ south the least and up to 12inches if everything comes togeather just right. No way we miss this one. Also the arrival time is key.

  70. Hadi, looks like bulk of your total snow is falling as we speak. Its like a wall of neverending snow. Big dry slot southern NH.

  75. Low flooding event ongoing along the coastline. For those of you that know the Brant Rock Village, there’s ankle deep water surrounding Arthur and Pats, with rivers of ocean water pouring into the village. The marshes, instead of being full rivers surrounded by marsh, are lakes. Its probably good that the tide is about to start going out.

    Light wind in Marshfield, maybe SE or S, low pressure must be very nearby.

  76. OK, I’m just having a little fun. I would like to take a guess (based on nothing) on what some of us will forecast for the snow this weekend.

    Charlie = 50’s and Sunny
    Tom = 1 to 3 Immediate Coastline, 2 to 4 from 495 westward
    Hadi = 24″ inside route 128
    JJ = Time will tell but it could be a blizzard-paluza (if the storm can make its own cold air)!
    TK = a General .375″ to 2.0625″ for WHW Viewing Area. Dry slot shutting down precip ahead of schedule.
    OS = See Hadi’s
    John = Incomplete Information (Waiting to see what his boy Harvey says)
    Acemaster = A Glorious Snowstorm unlike anything we have ever seen.

    4. Uh, Coastal…

      I have been saying all along that I Fear an OTS scenario.
      Why would I forecast 24″+ ???? 😀 😀 😀

      I see Nothing but BUST potential, although I am still hopeful.

      2. It’s just the way the season is going.

        One system is a coastal hugger with rain along the coastal plain and the next system naturally would be an OTS job! So what else is new? Lmao

    1. Actually OS the gfs is further north. Just not as intense as the euro is predicting. Also don’t forget the euro was consistent with a huge storm called Sandy and nobody wanted to believe how strong that would be.

  78. It’s so weird, so much money is just wasted towards snow, they just had a news guy explaining that they had snow and the plows were plowing and sanding, an the news guy says u really can’t tell it even snowed but it did, what if we drove very slow on roads and were just a little more patient with wasting so much money on suppose snow removal, I find it funny bc my wife is like what the hek r they plowing on rt 1, they woke us up and the kids 3 times last night bc of the plow scrapping the road, my wife looks at me and says it sounds like there pushing scrap metal down the street, it’s kinda funny, I’ve heard others say this too but owell

    1. I understand the safety thing, well these plow truck and sanders r taking advantage of that, there’s absolutely no doubt in my mind, and no John I’m not talking about u

    2. Think about all the wasted money and look outside, every storm for the last 2 yrs have been like this and the plows and sanders want there money or overtime

      1. In dallas if it snows or Ices people take the day off, it’s only 1 maybe 2 days a yr, here it snows an inch get out the plows and the big equipment, for a person that Has lots of college I don’t get this, again safety is important but c’mon stop taking the people heavily earned money, I don’t want dirty salt everyone, I’ve heard others say the same thing, before they wouldn’t plow until 2-3 inches now there plowing dusting and strong coatings haha be safe 🙂

  79. Hadi,

    Look at the heavy, convective precip on the north shore of MA, east of Boston and on the outer part of the Cape.

    Good grief, if you stay all snow and dont get any mid level warming, that is headed for your area the next 2 to 4 hrs. You may be looking at 20+.

  80. For once I wish the GFS wasnt so darn consistent. Its not going either direction, just staying its course. The 12Z run throws maybe 4” from Boston south and thats if ratios are high. If this were to be the final answer id be more than ok with it. Something to cover up the dull ground for a while.

    2. The biggest snow event I experienced last year was 3.5″. During the 2010 – 2011 winter season the snow in my area shutdown I believe late January. So if we did receive 4″ of snow, it would be the most I have seen in 23 months.

      1. I still think you will be surprised. Let’s chat after the run later. Henry not biting, that tells me right there look out.

            1. John,

              I certainly like Harvey and he is one of the best ever. I also like David Brown.
              Simply not impressed by Mike W.

  85. AceMaster…”officially” Logan received a trace. Since I don’t live at the airport I can’t deny it but I am quite skeptical since where I live in Dorchester, I only saw a few flakes mixed in once in a while when the precip fell hard enough.

    1. Philip agree 100% and then some!!! 😀

      If Logan received a trace, they were looking at the very first flakes
      that fell prior to the very rapid changeover.

        1. Again, I agree!!

          Ever since the NWS moved their operations down to
          Taunton, every report out of Logan has been suspect
          to me! LOL 😀 😀 😀

          1. For awhile there was some controversy regarding the 27.5″ that fell during the Presidents’ Day storm 2003. To this day I personally still don’t buy that total. Yes most of SNE got a lot but not that much. I believe a few inches should have been shaven off.

  86. Henry Margusity is only calling for 1-3″ for the weekend storm due to the +NAO. In that respect, he actually makes sense, but at the same time, if NNE can get tons of snow with a +NAO shouldn’t it be our turn here in SNE? We deserve it after last winter IMHO! 🙂

  87. I’m up in Norwich, Vermont today. The storm has produced snow, which is great. But, it was much weaker than anticipated. I don’t think that there are more than three inches of snow, despite the forecasts of 10-14 inches. Just not a lot of moisture, it seems. We may get a few moderate bands later today, but the temperature is up to 34 so it will be hard to accumulate.

    1. You had a huge dry slot right over u for a while. Plus thats an area of VT that typically in set-ups like these gets less snow. The storm must have known u were from southern NE 😉

  90. PB calling for 3-6 with potential to go WAY up if storm tracks closer. I’m on board with that. I think it does come close enough for at least several inches but potential is there for major snows. There is no bust potential because it is well known that the storm is favoring an offshore track.

      1. But the models have been advertising an OTS solution for days now. It’s expected to go out to sea so if it does, it is not a bust. It’s far more likely for it to be a “bust” if this thing nails us.

        1. We agree to disagree. If PB is saying 3-6 and Harvey says the chances of a significant storm are increasing, then to me an OTS is a bust. But that is just I. 😀

          1. Just to weigh in for what it is worth and that is not a plug nickle. I always think of a bust as a system that could potentially hit us but ends up heading OTS or in some other direction that prevents it from producing the snow we had hoped for.

            Well I re-read that and if it makes sense to anyone I’ll be surprised 🙂

              1. Seems we are saying the same thing, Charlie. I can see what both Alisonarod and OS mean. It’s interesting to think about.

                1. I agree with Charlie. If it was anticipated to strike us with heavy snow and then it went OTS, that is not a bust. However, if the storm has been anticipated to just graze us and it goes OTS, that is not a bust. That was what was expected. It would be a “bust” for the “forecasters” if they anticipated a grazing but the area got much more snow than anticipated. And that is where I think the bust potential lies–with the forecasters on this particular storm.

          2. Well that is because the models are just now beginning to trend closer to the coast. It would be much more consequential if the storm nails us when it was anticipated to miss than if it were to miss when it was aniticipated to miss from the start;)

  91. Sun is starting to peek out now in Plymouth. Too bad we don’t have any glare off the snow to contend with. 🙂

    1. John…I am curious as to what makes you so confident that we are getting this storm? We have a family Christmas party on Saturday and my husband will have to work if we do get snow. Trying to plan accordingly.

      1. Sue – totally off the topic of weather. My son and daughter gave their sister and husband a one night stay at the Radisson in Plymouth so they can get away before the baby arrives in April. They would like to go when things are open but don’t want to make it too close to the when the baby is due. They are thinking March. Is everything closed then or will there be things to do. They enjoy the shops in front of the Radisson and gift shops along Water street and the Lobster Hut. Thank you very much!!!

        1. Hi Vicki….the shops in front of the Radisson will be open at that time but a lot of the ones along Water Street generally open in April or May. The Lobster Hut should be open in March as I believe they close for January and February. That will be a nice get away before their baby arrives.

      2. Sue basically the storm is coming closer. The models starting to get the hint. I believe the next run in about an hour will have a better handle on it. Your husband does snow removal. I really believe sue this will not be a miss as some think it will. Also the timing is huge. If it comes in early maybe less. If its night time than more.

        1. Thanks John…..yes, my husband does snow removal at a large apartment complex in Plymouth. I am thinking he may actually be pleased if he has an excuse not to endure another family party. 🙂

  95. Barry is still not sure yet about the weekend storm and PB is now thinking no more than 2-4″ for Boston. Any accumulating snow will be most welcome AFAIC! 🙂

  96. We might just have to settle for a 2-4 or 3-6 storm while we wait for a big one. They don’t all have to be monsters 🙂 maybe I am biased as I in the midst of a big one.

    1. I will say though I’ve experienced a big one in Montreal years back and it’s just not the same as getting the big snows at your home, that’s just what I’ve experienced hope your having fun

  98. this storm the precipitation moves out by 8 and clearing starts in spts even before then. temps fall below freezing after 3pm. watch for standing water or what ever snow/slush you have to freeze. maybe some north of 128 and the pike will see some snow showers at the end of the day.

    second storm gives areas south of the pike a few inches. as the area of low pressure goes well south of the bench mark.
    its gonna be cold as an area of artic air moves in with a north northwest wind.

  99. Its so hard to tell with the 24hr increments what path the low takes. Does anyone know of another site that gives less than 24 hr increments? Other than wundermaps?

  100. Fred Campagna ‏@FredCampagna

    12Z ECMWF comes back to reality after delivering a bomb with the 00Z run. Still closer/stronger than most, but 2-4″ in RI, bit more SE MA.

      1. John, unfortunately, the EURO was the only model we could have hung our hat on. However, even the EURO has backed off considerably in the tune of a few inches south of Boston. I don’t see 6 inches from this run although I’m not ruling it out. Just not as confident as you are. Not sure what it is you’re seeing that I’m not.

  101. Pretty much equivalent to its 12Z run from yesterday. Looks like similar track as last nights 00Z run, except not as strong.

    1. Euro only showing an inch or two of snow. Not impressive at all.
      For once, I don’t want it to snow.
      We have dinner reservations for Saturday night and my daughter
      has earned her Master’s Degree and we’re celebrating.

      I’m rooting for OTS. Sorry all. 😀

      2. OS. Keep in mind that that run is only for a 6 hour period. It shows 1-2 inches in a 6 hour time frame. So it’s possible for a few inches to be squeezed out.

        1. I was looking at the whole series of panels, not just one 6 hour increment. Unless Wundermap is all screwed up (certainly possible) then adding them all up only yielded at most 2 inches.

    2. Oldsalty so your on board now. Again ots is off the table since this morning. Maybe tk can now join the fun.

      1. John. I think what OS is saying that the storm is a glancing blow. The 12z EURO gives us no more than a few inches at best on that run. Therefore, I hardly think TK changes his tune and joins in on the fun.

      2. No I’m Not on board at all. I think OTS is completely on the table.
        Certainly a graze or a brush is in the cards. A full all out hit, I think is highly doubtful, although anything is possible.

  104. I wish i could say it was only one bad run, but lets be honest, every other run has shown this thing going OTS or just grazing us. Unless something drastic changes, as in all models showing a bomb by 12Z runs tomorrow, then, not only will Old Salty not be on board, he will have already disembarked and in a taxi halfway home!

      2. Depends on what ur defintion of a few inches is. To me, a couple inches is 1-2. A few is say 3 or 4. Several would be 5 or 6+.

        1. I think 2+ inches gets out the plows and salters and national guard (that one was for u Charlie :P), just due to the fact that whatever we get isnt gonna be washed away by rain this time and will stay a while with all the cold forecasted.

        1. Two inches is plowable coastal. I could give a rats ass what the Euro is showing. Plowable event saturday, take it to the bank.

          2. I was more confident because the oz suite was trending much closer and supported to some degree by the GFS ensemble/op runs, the canadian and UKMET. However, the EURO 12z (the king) has backed off and has gone back to it’s original thinking along side all the other models. They can’t ALL be discounted.

  106. Sooooooo I suppose it’s too early to know how it will affect the immediate Boston coast??? I’m interesting in Logan since that’s where there would be the flight delays and cancellations.

    Thanks for anyone who might help with a bit of insight into that.

      1. I think you’re basing this on a hunch and not meteorological facts. Am I wrong? I could respect that but we’re just not sure why you’re so confident on this when all the evidence points against a big storm. I’ll take the 1-3 inches, however:)

        2. I am still thinking the models will come around. If I’m wrong, well I’m wrong. The same way you were thinking with the Xmas storm. I still feel this is not ots and we see a plowable event. So it may or may not be the eight inches, but I believe in a few solid inches, 2-6inches.

          1. John. I’m rooting for you. Believe me. I hope we get 2 feet. Just wanted to know what you were basing it on. I can totally respect basing it on a hunch. I do that all the time. With the post xmas storm, I was wrong even though the storm did track across the outer cape as opposed to over the canal. Development did occur earlier than expected but the track wasn’t favorable for us.

      2. Thanks John but I think I need some model guidance thrown in too and it may be too early for that. When you use the words “guess” and “who knows” I figure it’s too early to suggest my sister-in-law do more than just sit and wait until the last minute she will need to cancel her flight.

    2. Vicki,

      Just very difficult to say at this point. If we didn’t have models showing something, then backing off, we could be more confident. For Logan, with currently available data (Always subject to change), I would say and inch or 2.

      Right now, I see absolutely ZERO effect on Logan Operations, but it is Thursday and we are talking about Saturday evening, so please stay tuned.

      Again, these are my thoughts based on digesting all of the information and I am NOT a met.

      What time is the flight? Perhaps TK could chime in and help you out.

      Right now, waiting on 18Z NAM and GFS, but we should know much more
      after tonights 0Z suite of model runs.

      2. She flies standby since she is a flight attendant. That will also give her less flexibility when it comes to actually having a seat available. She usually comes in late morning or early afternoon and it would be Sunday. My best guess is that with the delays and cancellations at Logan today, holiday travel and then any other delays out of Atlanta to any airports along the northeast she won’t have a seat.

        Thank you, OS!!! Your response was great!

  107. This was in an article on accuweather about this weekend:

    There is also the potential for the storm to strengthen to a strong nor’easter or blizzard in portions of New England and the Maritimes.

  108. Up to 9 inches and heavy snow continues. Visibility 1/4 mile.

    I see a lot back and forth on this weekend. Thinking a couple inches but storm bares watching. I think we need to get through this storm and see what the atmosphere is thinking.

    1. Impressive! Sure looks like the mild air NEVER arrived or never will
      arrive. I wonder who ever would have thought of that??? 😀 😀 😀

  110. My take for what it’s worth I think southeastern mass will see snow just not alot of it, I see alot of coatings to 2 inches coatings north and north west and 2 inches towards cape

    2. So far, that sounds just about right. BUT there is still time and Mother
      Nature always throws curves at us, so we’ll have to keep watching.

      Based on the season to date, I’m leaning towards a grazing or brush, if not
      a total OTS situation.

  112. I hope everyone who had to shovel today took it easy. The snow was like moving cement. It was only four inches but it felt like a lot more.
    The weekend storm grazes us. I think level 1 snow event should we get snow.

      2. I live in CT Charlie but went to college up in Milton. Its nice to come to a place and be able to talk about weather
        which I love a lot.

      1. Haha who the hek shoveled, I traveled up to Milford and there’s no snow there either, I would have just waited till this morning when it disappeared 🙂

      2. we got 3 inches but the time that i had to go out and shovel it was a layer of slush. i did shovel the slush away so tonight my driveway is not a sheet of ice. and i also did my neibors and going to salt it

  113. Energy transfer from Upper Ohio Valley parent low to coastal low on Saturday may place the heaviest precipitation south of New England as there should be an eastward thrust before a northward turn of the secondary low. Close call.

  114. Not so fast on the nam being right:) not up here it had temps in the 40’s and it has not gotten over 28.

    Tom I still have no idea how you came up with your guess unless you were purely going off the nam thermal profiles.

    I also think sat storm is really close and will not much either way.

    1. No, just really thought the column at some point would warm enough and also, that the boundary layer would moderate a bit from the ocean. Lesson learned.

      1. I do find it a learning experience that south central Maine can remain all snow and pretty cold at that with a surface low that tracks right over Cape Cod. I suppose I should have figured out that perhaps that is their benchmark.

    2. Well he nailed last night and today that’s for sure.
      We’ll see.

      BTW, NWS 1:30PM updates both from Taunton and Upton still touting
      the BIG one for Saturday. If they are going to update their statment
      at 1:30PM, then why the bleep don’t they incorporate the new data???????

      If they, must do the update at 3PM. I just don’t understand. 😀

      1. OS, the NWS only updates their full forecast discussions around 4pm and 4am each day. They make intermediate updates only in their short term forecast and aviation discussions.

        1. Well that makes perfect sense doesn’t it?
          What do they do the rest of the time? Throw darts
          at their printed charts? 😀

            1. OR how they determine the snowfall
              estimates. If the dart lands in the center of a low, 12″+, if it lands in the center of a High, OTS etc etc. 😀 😀

          2. What they could do is the following:

            Latest information coming in may lead us to
            change the forecast for the later updates as
            new model information indicate the storm may
            pass more off shore.

            Or something to that effect. But then who wants an informed public. That doesn’t make any sense.

            2. Enjoyed that discussion too. 🙂 I’ve noticed that a lot, too. I enjoy following the winter weather, but I particularly enjoy following the summer storms and it would be frustrating when I wanted to see updates. Summer storms evolve quickly and things would happen and where would be the update??

  117. Logic has to be used in this case. Confidence grew on major snows for the weekend based on the 00Z EURO run. If we’re going to jump on that train then the same loss of confidence cant be justified for the 12Z EURO showing pretty much a non-event. Its a wait and see if big snows come back.

    1. Ok, that didnt really make sense…

      The weekend storm will be the most glorious storm any of us has ever seen! 😀

    2. Acemaster. You were the one who showed us the 18z GFS yesterday which demonstrated to us a much closer pass. Remember when I responded, “it’s just the GFS 18z” ??? That was two successive runs showing a bigger event. Let’s see what happens.

  118. Perhaps in the future colder pattern of a ridge in the west, trof in the east, the trof can orient in such a way as to drop a disturbance out of Canada and pass it just south of us as it intensifies.

          1. It does doesn’t it. I didn’t violate his patent protection- I promise!

            Can’t you just see a cold NW flow setting up and kicking things more wide right than not.

    2. This is from their 1:23PM update: I’ll spare you the tempring details.

      .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/…
      CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR
      THE REGION ON SATURDAY.

      Where did they make that change? Thanks.

    1. Not sure of the exact time, but I think fairly soon. I just checked and still
      not available at the moment.

          1. I HATE IT!! I truly sucks! Whose bright Idea
            was that. I guess they wanted to reduce the traffic on that site. Mission Accomplished, as I won’t
            be using it anymore! LOL 😀 😀 😀

  121. I gotta laugh. This blog is kind of bi polar we get really high and happy and then a new model comes out and we get really sad and depressed… I think we all need to take a good look and see that the trends overall have been coming closer and providing more precip. The euro got a bit excited but now has calmed down and will find its way. Let’s see what the models say in the coming hours. I think this storm has the best surprises because its so close and a difference of a couple of miles will make for huge impacts.

    1. The NAM is an outlier and has been discredited. I definitely wouldn’t put credence on the NAM at this point.

  123. Here is a great explanation of latest guidance by the NWS out of Upton NY:

    AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE…ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING SOME SORT OF LOW
    PASSING NEAR THE BENCHMARK WITH PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE EXACT
    LOCATION AND DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF. 12Z GFS WAS VERY
    SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WITH THE LOW PASSING JUST EAST OF THE 40N/70W
    BENCHMARK. 12Z ALSO CAME IN WITH A BIT MORE QPF. THIS TRACK IS
    CONSISTENT WITH THE CMC ALSO. THE 12Z GEFS SURFACE LOWS ARE ALSO NOW
    ALL JUST EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. THE NAM IS THE FARTHEST EAST AND
    WEAKEST INDICATING LITTLE QPF…WHICH IS THE OUTLIER OF ALL THE
    GLOBAL MODELS. THESE ARE ALL SHOWING A POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL
    CRITERIA SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS
    NYC AND EAST.

    LASTLY…THE 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER AND WETTER
    SOLUTION WITH THE LOW PASSING OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. THIS WOULD
    GIVE AREAS EAST OF NYC A MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNT…POSSIBLY
    WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER…12Z ECMWF CAME IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE
    MEANS/GFS/CMC AND THE LOW IS FARTHER EAST…WEAKER AND DRIER THAN
    PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS WOULD FALL IN LINE WITH AN ADVISORY LEVEL
    EVENT. THIS WAS THE LARGEST CHANGE MADE IN THE FORECAST…HAVE
    LOWERED BOTH THE QPF AMOUNTS AND SNOW TOTAL AMOUNTS…GENERALLY 2 TO
    4 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON LONG ISLAND
    AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT.

    1. Links from Wundermap just do NOT work. I used to be able to get them
      working, but not anymore. I tried every trick in the book.

      If it is absolutely warranted, I could save a scree print and a jpeg and
      load onto my personal website and then post a link to that. That is a pain
      and it would have to be something really dramatic before I’d bother.

      😀

    2. I did look at Wundermap. It only shows miniscule precipitation way to the
      North of the center. As it develops, that precip vanishes as the system
      goes well South and East. Onto the 0Z runs for more disappointment. 😀 😀

  125. When its says just east of the benchmark to me there is wiggle room here and could still track to the benchmark. I am not saying this will be the case but you never know.

  126. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN

    Gotta say, *early* indication is Sat PM storm lights up the classic Southern NewEng snowbelt – CT/Nrn RI/SE MA

  127. It’s amazing how the NWS updates both Upton and Albany but the 340 pm update out of Taunton is exactly the same and does not reflect the latest changes in the guidance. So frustrating.

  128. NCEP site now cites a “major hardware failure”.

    Ok, where were all of you today.

    The only one with a good alibi is Hadi because we have video.

  129. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    701 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

    CTZ002>004-MAZ005-006-009-011-012-RIZ001-281215-
    HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
    WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
    701 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
    CONNECTICUT…CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS…EASTERN
    MASSACHUSETTS…NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
    AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

    .DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

    A PLOWABLE SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

    WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
    CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

    2. Thanks, Vicki. At least some places in the state was able to enjoy a decent snowfall, maybe Boston the next time around 🙂

  132. Drove home from work and small batch of rain was coming down heavy at times. Temps are dropping too. At lunchtime it was close to 50, its now 36. I passed a huge salt truck throwing down a ton of salt. Im guessing they’re anticipating a freeze over later tonight as temps drop off into the 20’s.

  134. Tweet from Matt Noyes

    @MattNoyesNECN: Saturday PM storm seems quite likely to track close to 40°N/70°W lat/lon “benchmark” for Southern NewEng snowstorms

    1. It shows it DEEPENING RAPIDLY! BUT, looks to be moving more
      ENE rather than NE. Looks to pass South and East of Benchmark.

        1. Just a little wrinkle in the wind flow at 500MB and this
          baby is a “Benchmark”! 😀

          SO, it certainly needs to be watched.

          Haven’t heard from our friends at NEWW!
          Egg on their faces? Don’t want to try again????
          😀 😀 😀

          2. What do you know? Here it is:

            New England Weather Works
            This is an early outlook for the next system, with respect to the EURO at 0z, it has done an about face with the 12z run, we can agree more with the 12z. The reasoning is that the upper flow looks rather progressive and flat to us, this type of flow does not support a major system, a deeper look tells us this forecast will deeply relay on whether the northern stream wave and southern disturbance can phase causing a buckle in the Jet Stream i.e. Upper flow. Not impossible but right now we don’t support it, we will have a deeper look at this later this evening.

            Their snow total map has 4 inches for Boston.

  138. We get the cold air in place and what it appears best case scenario is a grazing. Still interested in what the 0z runs have to say.

    1. Latest Logan Observation:

      Last Updated: Dec 27 2012, 4:56 pm EST
      Thu, 27 Dec 2012 16:56:00 -0500
      Weather: Light Rain
      Temperature: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 33.1 °F (0.6 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 97 %
      Wind: from the North at 17.3 gusting to 25.3 MPH (15 gusting to 22 KT)
      Wind Chill: 23 F (-5 C)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 996.4 mb
      Altimeter: 29.38 in Hg

      Snow is Imminent! 😀

      1. Well this time coastal Im right. The snow is coming. And you should be doing the snow dance because my boy just said 5inches could fall down here, 2-4 will be else where. The speed of the storm is also key. Right now fast mover and will blowup after leaving here. The storm is in by noontime and as of now gone by saturday night. Again anything over two inches is enough for plowing, this is a plowable event. Im not sure why some people did not wait this one out. This storm will not be massive. You guys have been searching and wishing for snow, well its coming this time for real. Nobody is excited. It will be the most we have seen in along time. Take what we get.

        1. I had two inches in November. Heck i had about that last night. Honestly John they do not plow anywhere near here for two inches.

    1. John,

      You “may” be right, but I will believe a “Plowable” event when I see it.
      If they want to plow an inch or two, more power to them. To me, that is NOT
      a plowable event.

      It’s a grazing to me, until such time that I see guidance that tells me otherwise.

      The transfer of energy and the wind field aloft will take this system
      South and East of benchmark.

    2. Aw crap, I’m heading into Worcester in a bit to meet up with some people for dinner. Hopefully the weather cooperates.

  146. Interesting stuff today from everyone. People are getting a little testy. We need some snow to calm everyone down.

    1. The 00z euro was the carrot dangling from the end of a rope…we all rushed for it at the same time, and they pulled the rope and we’re all chasing after it.

  147. For sure some snow is needed 🙂 I can’t tell there is a high frustration level !! TK can you get to work on this. 🙂

    1. That’s easy for you to say as you sit there in the middle of north pole getting snowed on, lol. When you come back to Boston, reality will soon set in for you as well;) Enjoy the snow!

    1. The side road is now covered it is lovely isn’t it captain. If it is what we are left with, ill be happy at this point!

  149. 32F at Logan, this little post event has ice up potential. Wind blown thick mist in Marshfield and 39F. Compared to the low 50s earlier, it feels fairly cold !

    1. Coastal. Perhaps, but it wasn’t precip that moved from West to East.
      There was nothing and then this stuff just popped up.

      Still don’t care for his forecasts. Even he has to be right sometimes. 😀

  152. is the center of the low pressure system still off our coast? precipitation is moving from north to south on radar

    1. Yes. It’s to our north and east. Precip is moving from north to south due to the broad clockwise center of circulation. Looks to shut down soon as the storm continues to pull away.

  155. Changed to snow 1/2 home from work before 5:30PM. Ground has a very light coating.
    😀

    We’re heading out to Natick soon. That should be fun. Hoping Christmas Returns
    folks stay home! 😀

    1. Vicki,

      Are we going to have a problem out that way?
      I am a very experienced snow driver and have driven in the
      worst of snow and ice conditions.

      1. No problem OS. What restaurant are you going to for dinner if you don’t mind my asking. Just a very light snow and a light coating now. My guess is main roads are clear. Have a wonderful celebration

        1. I do wonder about freezing when you go home. Like you I am a very experienced snow driver but worry about others as most are not. Be safe

    1. That’s laughable since NONE of the latest guidance is suggestive of that. I love how people just pull numbers out of a hat without any supportive evidence.

        1. I’d be super excited if that were to occur but phasing appears to happen too far east over the fish. Southern new england will see “some” snow as the primary low approaches the benchmark, however, bombogenesis occurs to late to bury us. A few to several inches seems likely. And a foot+ of snow occurs over the fish.

    2. yeah thats bull. i see maybe 3-6 inches on the cape and the south coast. light snow fall across the rest of the area south of the pike and east of the 95 coridor including boston with areas west of 95 seeing just snow showers. this is my early guess. and yet again my area will be in the non snow area. :/

      1. Not to mention, light snow showers are expected to envelope northern new england all the way up to the canada border. Certainly even west of 495 is likely to see a few inches.

  157. i really hope this storm does not start until after 7pm tomorrow for my area . if it happens. i hope for a light event do to the fact that i have a family holiday party. celebrating christmas and new years. 🙂 it would have been to have gotten a good snow fall with storm not the possible saturday storm.

    1. Matt. Storm doesn’t begin tomorrow. It begins around noon time on Saturday. Unfortunately, it’s likely that the 3-6 inch snowfall will occur in Boston with locally higher amounts around playmouth. The cape and islands actually may see less due to mixing if the storm approaches close to the benchmark as models are currently depicting. Have a safe holiday party.

  158. As I sit here watching my right ankle swell up after spraining it, I see that ch 4, 5 and 7 all overlap the same area (Boston to Cape Cod Canal) with the highest snowfall projections for Sat. Night-Sun. Morning.

    Not to make Coastal laugh, Pembroke and Hanover are all snow, but I think from Marshfield center eastward to Brant Rock is probably at risk for at least a wetter snow, if not some mix with rain.

    2. But tom coastal thinks it will not be a plowable event. I hope he remembers that while shoveling 5 inches, LOL.

          1. The 12z euro said its not a plowable event. Two inches is not plowable event.

            coastal says:
            December 27, 2012 at 2:09 PM
            John the Euro says you are wrong! It will not be plowable and will melt on contact.

            1. Lol. Match one goes to? Have a nice night. Enjoy the snow that’s coming. Snap a picture of the Hanover plow for me, take care.

      1. Simply walking towards my front door from the driveway and must have been near the edge of the pavement and landed on the slightest decline between the pavement and a grassy spot and the ankle just gave and rolled. The kind of roll where in that instant your foot looks like an inward letter L. Hadnt experienced that in about 20 years, the last time rolling my ankle like this was playing hoop.

    4. Oh no Tom. The important thing is not to move and everyone must wait on you hand and foot….pun may be intended

      Seriously. Hope it gets better quickly

  159. Love this ob from Logan …..

    -FZDZS ….. I think this means light freezing drizzle mixed with snow ?? Visibility is 7 miles, so it must be pretty light.

  161. There was talk earlier about the hazardous weather outlook from the NWS out of Upton, NY taken away. Its back for southern CT and the NYC area. It saying basically 2-4 inches with the storm track south and east of the area. If the storm tracks closer could get warning level snowfall. I agree with that based on the current track. Waiting to see what the 0z models runs have to offer.

    1. As I suspected all along the models eventually picked this thing up. Boy I was sweating it out for a minute, not.

      1. Don’t want to see this go anymore further south and east or that 2-4 inches will have to be downgraded.

        1. JJ I think were good. If anything it could go slightly up. I see Boston at 5-6 inches, maybe add a few more inches down my way. My wife just said its now snowing here and top of cars white.

          1. If the low pressure could come to the benchmark than those amounts you mentioned could happen.
            I think 2-4 looks good right now but any slight shift in the track will make a difference.

  162. Just got back from a nice dinner with the family @ Hingham Beer Works. Driving home and there was some sleet, snow and rain…windy and raw.

    1. Son has been there several times and has great things to say. We have it on our list when we stay in Humarock for march.

      1. Excellent food and beer (although tonight I didn’t partake in any of their brews). Did have some great apps and the main course was something called the Drunken Turkey (beer glazed roasted turkey with all the fixins!!) Too full too move now and ready for a nap 🙂

        1. Yummy. Have you been to wahlbergers. We were thinking of trying it. We also like Tosca. You have some great restaurants.

          1. Vicki…I was pleasantly surprised at Wahlburgers. Excellent burgers and reasonable prices. Their other place across the street (Alma Nove) is more high end but equally as good.

            1. Thank you ! I have also heard wonderful things about alma nove. It gets incredible yelp reviews. You don’t know a family by the last name of Moss in hingham do you? Long shot I know 🙂

    1. Uh oh. Hope OS doesn’t have trouble getting home. Still snowing here but lightly. Everything is white but driveway is not icy.

  165. What exactly determines a “plowable” event these days? I remember years ago the Boston Public Works would bring out their plows when the snow reaches 3″+.

    1. Great question Philip. I was thinking that should be defined. It’s not 2 inches, that’s for sure. I suspect it depends on the type of snow also. My suggestion is since its so vague that its better to use amounts.

      1. It’s an awfully broad field. And two inches isn’t plowable. What numbers are you giving it John? And in what area?

  166. Southern Maine did very well. I think they are at 10+ in Kkennebunkport. I am guessing we are close to a foot but hard to measure bc of wind.

  167. NAM just misses the phase on 00z run. Closer but just the lack of block doesn’t allow this storm to veer west. Still looks likes maybe 1-3 inches

  169. Its definitely closer than 18z. Just really weak its been a constant trend towards closer to the coast just need the phasing to start sooner. I think this will be a close call right up to the actual event models will continue to waiver on strength.

Comments are closed.