As December Goes, Winter Comes

583 Comments

10:49PM

The complex storm is about history. We all know how it went with the big snow in the mountains and significant snow inland southern New England with mostly rain coast. Though some areas that missed out on the main snow were coated with snow from back-lash snow showers during Thursday evening. In the next several days, we’ll deal with cold weather and a snow threat. Friday will be a bright, windy, chilly day. Low pressure moving out of the eastern Ohio Valley will redevelop off the Middle Atlantic Coast Saturday and track northeastward, close enough to throw some snow at southern New England but probably too far out to result in a big storm. This will be due to a very progressive system not really getting fully organized until it’s beyond the region. The window of opportunity for snow will be over about a 12 hour period from noon Saturday to midnight Saturday night/Sunday morning. What this low pressure area will do is help to drag down more cold air for Sunday as the pattern changes to a cold/dry one, as has been expected to take place for some time. A couple shots of Arctic air will welcome the New Year next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers lingering. Icy areas on untreated surfaces. Lows from the lower 20s southern NH to upper 20s Boston to Cape Cod. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 20-25. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Snow developing midday and afternoon from southwest to northeast. Highs upper 20s to lower 30s from north to south.  Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow tapering off from southwest to northeast by midnight. Snow accumulation of up to a few to several inches possible especially in eastern MA and RI. Lows 20-25.  Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly sunny day. Variably cloudy with snow showers night. Low 18. High 33.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 13. High 27.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 8. High 27.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 18. High 31.

583 thoughts on “As December Goes, Winter Comes”

  1. GFS looks closer and more developed throwing more precip back into eastern parts of Ma and more down by cape and islands.

  2. Thanks TK. Had to cancel our trip to NYC this weekend. One of the people going with us slipped and fell on some black ice Christmas night and ended up breaking her leg! I guess we will see the xmas decorations there next year. Now I need to check thes snowblower to make sure it is good to go for Saturday, just in case it is needed.

    1. Bummer for the canceled trip. I hope the injured person recovers quickly! Can’t hurt to have the snowblower ready, in case. Surprises happen!

      And to Tom if you see this, hope your ankle heals up quickly too!

  3. Just landed at DFW and it’s like a different country, calm, cool, and I’m driving comfortable on a 10 lane highway 1 way so it’s 20 lanes, it’s such an easier life, hope all is well, I return Wed, ps there’s more snow on the ground here than there 🙂

    1. I have a love/hate w/DFW, like being able to see further into the horizon, especially on t-storms, but prefer the hills, trees and vegetation in New England.

      1. Me to captain, I have a love hate thing too for dallas, my wife and kids tend to like it here better even though my kids and myself r true new englanders since birth I’m getting overruled to this point, hope all is well and enjoy 🙂

        1. And in dallas alone has over 1 million residents move here every decade, to put it in perspective the Boston area has grown a million people in 40yrs,

            2. I just want my fam to get the most out of life and to be happy, being here and watching a slow death, politics and my kids need jobs in 10 yrs and there are many high paying jobs here, I’m not gonna live in massachusetts to watch my family move away like alot do no disrespect to anyone, my wife’s last straw was the train breaking down 1 time per month, she wants to drive on her own back and forth to work and not rely on somebody else

            3. 5 of us and my brothers family is thinking of moving too, I think he’s gonna but it will take a few more years for him

      2. Looking at land in flower mound, I can build a 350,000 home on a acre in the far flung suburbs that normally here in mass would be no exaggeration close to a million dollars, just not gonna waste my money 🙂

  4. Just got back from dinner in Worcester and its like a totally different world up there. Looked like a widespread 4-6″ on the ground and snowing lightly with the moon out behind thinning clouds. Roads were find though. Now back home to crappy crap bare ground, lol

  5. Regarding the weekend storm. Hoping for a surprise, something wacky to happen between now and sat, but i think its locked in to a solution and will not waver much.

  7. Thanks for letting me join in on the conversation. Can’t wait to see what happens this weekend, weather-wise!

        1. Is Lynnfield near you? I have a project going on there.

          I don’t think we have anyone reporting from coastal north shore. We did but Scott is now in VT.

          1. I live on the Lynn/Lynnfield line. Its an interesting town to say the least. City life mixed with suburban life. We have a great coastline and a municipal forest too. When the weather is particularly stormy, you can count on lots of weather watchers gathering on Lynn Shore Drive at high tide to watch the stom surf.

            1. P.S. I woud be happy to post any of my observations regarding the weather in my area. It is such a fascinating thing to study and learn about.

    5. Welcome, Lisa!! Nice to meet you. I remember Lynn for the Lynnway and where we used to go to …….ah hem…….. race our cars (shhhhhhh and I’m dating myself) 😉

  8. BB on WBZ at 5:30 am today.

    North of the Pike = 1-3″
    South of the Pike = 3-6″

    The further south towards RI, the more likely it will be 6″

  9. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    447 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012
    …THIS IS AN EASTWARD TREND FROM PREVIOUS THU/S 12Z MDL RUNS. IN
    ADDITION THIS IS A RAPIDLY MOVING OPEN WAVE WHICH WILL LIMIT
    DURATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THUS PROBABILITY FOR A MAJOR
    SNOWSTORM IS UNLIKELY WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR A LIGHT TO
    MODERATE SNOW EVENT. NEVERTHELESS WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AS THERE ISN/T MUCH MARGIN FOR ERROR. IF STREAMS PHASE/TROUGH MERGER OCCURS 6-12 HRS SOONER/FARTHER WEST THE RISK OF HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. STAY
    TUNED!
    Fingers crossed!

  10. We have a 50/50 chance of getting 4″+ on the south shore and a less than 20% chance for more than 8″.

    1. What this tells me is the we can expect rain that changes over to snow that accumulates less than a trace. 🙂 🙁

  11. Well, both ch 4 and 7 have intoduced a vertical, lower snowfall expectation just south of Boston, along the immediate coastline and unfortunately, I agree with them.

    Probably one of these occurences where at exits 12 and 13 off of Rt. 3 there’s a handful of inches of snow, but progress eastward along Rte 139 orhead towards Rt 3A and there’s going to be a sharp gradient. I’m just hoping to secure a net gain of snowcover out of this event.

    Dusting on the ground this AM and saw the bright, shiny full moon setting on the northwest horizon.

    1. I live west of route 3 in that area. I always see a difference when driving east 2 miles to route 53 and a bigger difference by the time I get to Lowes.

      2. Being west of rt. 3, I think your good Coastal !

        We’re at exit 12, just past Marshfield center.

        One of the first winter’s in Marshfield, there was an early season storm where from Brant Rock to the CVS in town center had 0, by the time one drove west to Marshfield High, there was an inch or 2 and by the 99 in Pembroke, it was closing in on about 6 inches. Its etched in my mind because having previously lived in Lowell, I had not seen such a gradient over a short distance.

        1. I can see that gradient driving down the street, though with a little more snow usually. My street runs west to east. I have seen several times when its snowing at my house but rain at route 53. Should be interesting.

          1. same thing here in Hingham…it can be raining here at my place (near the West Hingham Commuter Rail) and then travel a mile and a half west to Jackson Sq in Weymouth and it’s snowing.

  12. 3-4 inches for Boston and going for 6 down on the south shore. Should be snowing by noontime tomorrow. These amounts could be on the low side as this storm seems like it has some surprises. Surprised tk that you had no mention on snow totals. This will be the most snow some places have seen in some time. Enjoy the snow. Even if this only drops 3inches its a big deal. Have a nice day.

  13. This is a progressive storm system and won’t have the opportunity to become a blockbuster. The storm explodes but too late to bury us.
    I am thinking a general 2-4 inches which is a level 1 snow event. There could be some places particularly in southeastern parts of SNE that could get 5 inch amounts. I would expect winter weather advisories to be issued later today for a good part of SNE.

  14. Tk with all due respect your underestimating this storm, especially for Boston. A few inches at least is a good storm.

  15. From the astronomical desk …..

    Today, Boston gains 29 seconds of daylight (as its already one week past the solstice). Because solar noon is moving slightly later each day (about 30 seconds), the gain is accomplished with about a 16 second LATER sunrise, but a 45 second LATER sunset.

    With help from solar data from Taunton NWS sun and moon data.

    3. Thanks, Tom. I emailed the info to Mac. I swear he says every night that it’s getting dark just a bit later 😉

      How’s the ankle?

  18. Thanks, TK!

    Lisa, welcome! Looking forward to your posts.

    Tom, hope your foot is feeling better.

    Charlie, enjoy your trip in Dallas! I, too, would love living in an area where you would get a better view of thunderstorms, but I still love the trees and hills of New England.

    This next storm may not be a big one, but between the few inches we get and the burst of cold air nxt. wk., unlike last winter, at least we will know that it is winter!

    1. I should have said, like Captain, that I would like a better view of storms in the horizon but I like the trees and hills of New England.

    1. One place on the Taunton NWS is look at the left side of the page and find detailed point forecast. Beware, they are not extremely accurate (in my opinion), but do offer dewpoint, wind and windspeed projections for various locations.

  21. Accuweather PRO yesterday had Acton, MA receiving 1-3″ of snow from Saturday’s system. Today it says 3-6″ with a detailed estimate of 3.7…seems to be in line with the 2-4″…for what it’s worth it forecasted Wednesday/Thursdays event brilliantly. When the local stations, Other than Ch. 5 (gotta give props to Harvey), were forecasting 3-6″/6-12″/4-8″ it only called for 2.6″…that’s the amount I recorded before the change over to sleet/freezing rain which compressed to just under 2″ of cement like snow.

  22. Yesterday I was thinking totally a COW storm (Grazer), but now
    it’s looking to be a bit more than that, although it still appears NOT to be
    an all out direct hit.

    06z Nam at 48 Hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122806&time=24&var=PRMSL&hour=048

    06Z GFS at 48 Hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122806&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=048

    06Z GFS 24 hour snowfall totals in inches at 54 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122806&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    06Z NAM 24 hour snowfall totals in inches at 54 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122806&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=054

    What is interesting on the GFS map, is that far inland areas are showing
    more snow? With the storm passing off shore, this doesn’t make much sense.
    Only thing I can come up with is the ratio due to it being colder inland.

    Both models depicts a pretty intense system EAST of the Benchmark.
    A slight Westward shift on this track and we’re in for it. This system really
    needs to be WATCHED carefully. AND yes, I know it is the 06Z Run.

    0Z Euro, Canadian and Ukmet ALL offer similar solutions.

    It looks like it will snow, it’s just a question of HOW MUCH???? 😀 😀 😀

    Thoughts?

    Many thanks

      1. Even so, still seems rather strange with the projected track.
        Perhaps some banding out there? We’ll see how it plays out.

    2. OS,
      That is what I mean about computer models. We all know that if this storm behaves like the computer says it will (east of the benchmark). There is no way those snow totals verify in central NH. There is no way Concord NH gets more snow then inland south shore. If the storm is located there.

      1. Would seem so.

        We’ll watch and see. I just wonder if Mother Nature has
        some tricks up here sleeve for tomorrow? 😀

  23. Unfortunately, I think my comments from Christmas eve are coming true. I missed the Christmas snow a little bit because we didn’t get two inches we got about one. I believe as I did on Christmas eve that this event will be mostly south shore. The second storm in a series of storms always goes south. The computer models can dance all over the place; but I think everyone on this blog has a gut instinct and has been following this long enough to know what the majority of these storms are going to do, before you even look at a computer model. I think we all fall in love with the technology and stop using our instints. Being just over the MA line in NH we have been getting a lot of rain and the southern storms have been leaving us dry. My 12 year old is not happy, the good news is he really has a love for weather and always wants to read everyones comments. Thanks for a great site…

  24. Hey Old Salty…. Thanks for the links. It looks like after this storm the weather is going into boring mode for a while.
    My thinking is a level 1 snow event with a general 2-4 inches across SNE. I would not be surprised if there are some 5 inch reports across parts of southeastern SNE. The NAO is positive which will not allow this thing to slow down and keep it a progressive storm system.

    1. JJ, We are in agreement. We just have to keep an eye out for any possible
      surprises. 😀

      Looking forward to the 12Z runs.

    3. Hmmm…no way jose. Whats weird is they have 8+ in that area south of Boston, but on the general totals map right after that it says 3-6” in that same exact area…

      John, did u hack into ch 5’s computer systems and change the amounts? 😛

  27. Thats a little higher than I am thinking. If the storm intensify’s some than those totals could happen. I think the intensification happens when the low is passed us.
    Waiting on the 12z runs and if there are some good wintry surprises with this storm.

  30. 12Z NAM is in.

    Here is the updated the 24 hour snowfall mpa in inches at 48 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122812&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    This is very interesting. NAM at 28 hours, clearly showing the transfer of energy to the coast:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122812&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=028

    The NAM at 36 hours. Looks Ominous! But destined to track more off shore:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122812&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=036

    NAM at 42 hours, unfortunately still outside of the benchmark, but looks to be a bit closer than previous runs. We’re getting there:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122812&time=INSTANT&var=PRMSL&hour=042

    Again, the slightest wrinkle in the upper air flow and this could be an all out
    snowstorm! Bears careful attention! Onto the 12Z GFS….

    1. Just a note here:

      On any of the links above, check out the drop down menus. You can choose
      a wide variety of maps to look at from any of the links.

      BTW, Nova Scotia looks to get Clobbered from this event.

  31. NWS out of Upton, NY in their hazardous weather outlook for southern CT and NYC areas mentions a low probability of the storm tracking further west which would result in warning level snowfall.

    1. Right, the 500MB wind floow looks to be pretty locked in, however,
      that doesn’t mean that there couldn’t be a slight change AND it is tracking
      So close, that just a slight wobble and it makes a huge difference.

      ALWAYS KEEP WATCHING! 😀

      1. OS did you have any trouble getting home last night with icing? I was worrying. I hope your celebration was special.

        1. Hi Vicki.

          Last night was just shopping at the Natick Collection.
          Absolutely no problems with the drive. Roads were
          just fine. I’m pretty sure Rt. 9 was salted. Thank you so much for asking.

          Tomorrow night is the celebration dinner. Unless this
          thing blows up big time we’re going. 3,4,5, 6 inches of fluff isn’t going to stop us! 😀 😀

          Many thanks again.

          1. Oh then you were brave heading to the Natick Mall at this time of year. Although we went on Wednesday to return two things and were surprised it wasn’t busier. Glad you didn’t have problems.

        2. Interesting. It’s more the winds than the snow/rain that I think may mess up Logan and other airports. We shall see.

  32. You never know and will be interested what the 12z GFS and EURO have to say. Still feel good about my prediction of a general 2-4 inches of snow.

  33. PB smells something cooking: @pbouchardon7: Re last tweet: potential for more in that 3-5 zone. Storm may b a lil’ juicier.

  35. 2-4 inches south shore ,cape and islands rain and snow mix
    4-8 inches across southeast mass up to boston snow. winter storm/advisory level snows
    2-4 south of rt 2. lighter snows maybe advisory level snows higher amounts inside of 128 and south of the pike.
    0-2 inches north of rt 2 and north west mass up into southern nh and vt.
    reason for 4-8 is because i think their will be ocean inhanced snow on the east facing coasts..

  36. I’m kind of torn on wanting this thing to phase and come closer. On first thought/instinct, that seems like a good thing. However, if the low is deeper and closer, while the column is plenty cold enough, I’d like to see the surface winds not get too strong. So, I’d like to take our chances with the current setup and not get more intense.

  37. TWC winter weather expert just said a little more moisture coming out of the Gulf with the disturbance in the southern part of the jet stream.
    Will see if an upgrade on the snow index is needed which is at a 1 for everyone with the thinking no widespread area will exceed 4 inches.

  38. Bob Maxon ‏@bobmaxon

    @MattNoyesNECN Matt, the latest RPM is scary, it has flipped/flopped from dream world to reality, back to la-la land. (14″ in BOS!)

    2. Hey coastal, what is RPM?

      Do you have a link? Even if pure fantasy, would like to have a look at it.

      Thanks

      1. John, lets be honest. You saw nothing yesterday, you simply want it to snow. You do not use nor do you base your comments on any of the model outputs or basic meteorological principles. Your acting silly.

  39. From the NWS at Taunton:

    …WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
    THE REGION. HIGHEST QPF WILL REMAIN S. WITH INCREASING NE WINDS…
    WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ALONG THE
    IMMEDIATE COAST.

    😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

    They are out of their minds!

  41. Exact track which is the weather in the future they use at NBC CT is off. I feel it was right earlier in the morning with the higher totals east and lesser totals west.

  43. marshland has 7 feet of water for the first time in a very long time. and for the firs time since last December i believe. the marsh has a thin layer of ice and i expect it to continue to ice over as the days progress. temperature down in the marsh is about 25 degrees 🙂

  45. Right now I still think were looking at advisory level snowfall across SNE. Exact track which NBC CT uses to look out in the future is on steriods.

  46. The devil’s advocate in all this, and I believe TK mentioned this as a possibility yesterday, is that the developing low south of us could transfer the energy from the approaching Ohio Valley system, weakening its snow shield as it approaches and the ocean storm’s precip is too far south.

  47. Watch for the NAM to be a bit fast with development…a bit too far northwest with track and a bit too high with precip. Adjust accordingly. 1-3 north and CC..3-6 in between.

  48. From Tim Kelly, NECN via Twitter:

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan
    @bobmaxon @MattNoyesNECN North wind converging w east wind may be dramatic as T5 on fous down to -11C, glad I am not working.. oh wait. dang

    Is he talking about a convergence zone in Eastern MA where North Winds
    from the cold high to the north converge with more Easterly winds from the
    off-shore storm system ENHANCING precipitation greatly???

    What’s up here???

    1. If this happened, guess whose neighborhood would be sitting on the wrong side of the convergence line with the east wind ? LOL !!!!

  51. The one thing, other than a change in track that would give more snow is if this thing bombs out so much to the east of the benchmark that its precip shield gets so wide and expands further west, which may end up happening

  53. As we wait ….. I think if closer and more intense, then those a few miles inland will be very happy, but I’m not sure this is a good think for the coastline, including tide issues as well.

        1. Tom,
          With the last system there were major boundary layer issues due to an EAST wind. This time it will be NNE or NE. I don’t see it as an issue in Boston, Perhaps far
          South Shore.

      2. Idk I think the rain in boston may be right if that east wind is strong enough or at the very least hold down accumulations substantially

          1. Charlie,

            NE wind in Boston won’t be a problem. It may keep the snow wetter right along the coast, but no rain. Rain “may” be a problem farther down
            the coast. As I said before, perhaps Marshfield and point South.

      3. i actually do not like that one either. it give my area only around 1-3 inches while the same areas hit by the other storm gets the most of the snow once again and i rather have you guys down south of me get the snow than up in the rt 2 area so my grandparents and family can get here with little trouble for the party that i am having on saturday.

    4. Just took a look and compared the 00Z, 06Z and now 12Z, and the low center on each run is ever so slightly more to the west

  55. This thing gets so wound up I think it’s Likley the the ocean brings in mild air inland 5-10 miles so if u live close to coast disappointed will be the word

    2. Well, just south of Boston. i think Boston’s wind can hold enough northerly that they’ll be fine. But a stronger N/NE wind and from Hingham south, along the coast within a couple miles, thats likely to be an issue.

      1. OK. See above. I think it will be a problem farther South
        than Hingham. I think Hingham is OK, but perhaps staring
        with Marshfield it will be a problem. 😀

        1. U want this to go east just a tad to get into more snow, I think as it stands now your looking at snow but with a mix holding down accumulations to a slushy 1-2 inches 🙂

  56. I have seen different forecasts as to when the snow begins anywhere from right at midday to just prior to sunset. I have to be at work at 11:30 am so I know that I won’t have to wear my boots on the way in but what about the way back home around 4:45 pm or so? If it starts snowing just as I am ready to go home, I could probably get away with not having to wear them and keep my regular shoes on.

    So what is the most likely timeframe for the snow to move in to Boston?

  58. Given the track and the fact that it is thisclose from being OTS as it is, I am somewhat surprised that the rain/snow line is so close to Boston Harbor looking at futurecasts and the mets snowmaps along the south shore.

    2. And look at that 1-3 right near the immediate coastline. Barry’s the best, not happy with the 1-3, but in full agreement.

      1. Yup. He has the boundary layer issues a bit more North
        than I though and a bit more South than you thought.

        Looks to be right about Cohasset, perhaps Southern part of
        Hull.

    3. Thanks Ace.

      Given the guidance to this point, I’d say that is SPOT ON.
      But BB is the best!!! So why wouldn’t it be? 😀

    5. I think the big thing here is that temps are not all that cold even across northern New England. Temps in the 20s to low 30s. I’d rather see those in the teens. Sea water temps still in the mid to upper 40s!!

  60. Non storm related, but while cold, the next several days seemed to have backed away from the very cold highs in the low 20s. Now it seems that the cold days of next Tues/Wed are in the mid to upper 20s and prior to the cold, now Dec 31 and Jan 1 could be in the mid 30s. Am I recalling this incorrectly ?

    1. Hmmm I saw them plowing less than an inch the other day, so everytime I see the word plow able it doesn’t tell me much other then plow able means more than a coating 🙂

      1. I don’t think using the term plowable is a good measure. It can mean anything from 1 inch to three feet. No way they plow around here for 1 inch – even on the major roads. As OS pointed out they do sand and salt very heavily.

  62. Hmmm

    Tim Kelley NECN ‏@SurfSkiWxMan
    Wind direction & magnitude is vital & difficult to predict MT @Derecho8 12Z gfs Brings more wet than white eastern mass, E-wind = snoweater

    2. Not sure how accurate it is, cuz some of the GFS options are crude, but I just looked at wunderground’s 12Z GFS and under precip type it had all of eastern MA in the rain all the way west past 495. With 850mb temps in the -2 to -4’C range, AND NNE winds for the duration…how in the world will it rain in those conditions??

  63. And longer term into mid January, I see that the PNA is headed back towards the dreaded neutral or negative (more action returning to the Pacific coast, along with modified Pacific air), the arctic oscillation is strongly headed towards positive, and the NAO stays neutral or positive. All 3 signs seem to indicate milder times ahead in the mid January time frame for a time anyways. Then, I saw Brett Anderson’s latest EURO interpretation and he thinks a spell of milder air in mid January, however, to be potentially followed by much colder air in the east again.

    2. Hi Lisa…. Welcome to the blog.
      There may need to be an upgrade in the snow index to a 2 (snowfall between 5 and 10 inches) later on. I might have
      underestimated this storm system only calling for a general 2-4 inches.

  65. We usually get the January thaw in the middle of January. I don’t think the mild air lasts as long as it did during this month.
    The indexes are not what you want to see for big snows in SNE.

  66. I am thinking that twitter is a bad thing for storm orecadting, especially whn you have Todd Gutner, BB, and Terry Eliasen tweeting conflicting info simultaneously. Super confused now. LOL

    1. Lisa many of us have the iPad problem but most everyone – if not everyone – figures out what it means so no worries!! The only problem was that mine wants to change my son’s new girl’s name to his old girl’s middle name. He doesn’t think it’s funny 🙁

  68. Question for the group. I seem to remember reading somewhere that when interpreting wind direction from say a 500mb model map that wind is always more at angle to the left as opposed to the actual isobars..ie: an isobar showing an east wind is actually a NE wind. Not sure if I recall that bit of info correctly or not.

  69. Folks stay the course in the end this will all turn out what we know to be true. This storm will be just east of the benchmark and it will be progressive. The outer cape will get a slushy inch then rain. South shore/RI and outer cape will get 3-5 inches except right along the immediate coast. Could be one or two 6 inch amounts. Logan will get 2 inches but parts of Boston will get 4 inches. North and West of 495 and Rte 2 will get 1-2 inches. Cut through the noise and this is what it will end up being. Although, I must admit it is fun to get excited about potential. So you say there’s a chance….

    1. I’ll be happy with 4″. Hopefully, Brighton is far enough in from the coast for a mix or a complete change over to all liquid. Fingers crossed, once again 🙂

  70. Cant wait for King EURO to come swooping in and save us all from ourselves. About another hour and a half 🙂

  73. That is the model I am waiting to see before upgrading to level 2 snowfall in spots.
    The RPM model is on streiods. I think it is safe to say we are going to get snow out of this.

    1. “RPM�s depiction of precipitation has been quite uncanny in its accuracy. Its handling of often challenging lake-effect precipitation events has been VERY impressive.　 Animations of the model’s QPF output have offered us a truly eye- catching and illustrative manner in which to communicate to our audiences a clear picture of developing storm situations. We are VERY pleased with the RPM output!”

      *WSI’s proprietary, high-resolution RPM (Rapid Precision Mesoscale) weather model provides users the ability to create custom parameters to access timing and intensity of weather conditions.

      Tom Skilling, Chief Meteorologist, Superstation WGN Chicago

      1. Interesting info about WSI from their website…
        WSI is the most trusted source of weather information around the globe. Top energy and agriculture trading groups and financial institutions worldwide trust WSI to supply them with easy-to-use, timely and expert weather guidance to help anticipate market volatility, mitigate risk and make critical decisions with confidence. WSI is a member of The Weather Channel Companies and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts, with offices in Birmingham, England. The Weather Channel Companies are owned by a consortium made up of NBC Universal and the private equity firms The Blackstone Group and Bain Capital.

      2. Nick,

        Outstanding post. Fascinating!! Thank you!

        I guess that answers Ace’s question.

        NO WONDER, BB and Tim Kelley are concerned!

        WOW! TK, your thoughts?

        ALL eyes are on the 12Z Euro.

        The plot thickens!

    2. Ace, Excellent question.

      Probably only TK can answer or perhaps JMA.

      Let’s hope they chime in.

      Sounds to me like BB and Tim Kelley are concerned by the RPM, which
      leads me to believe that is has at least some credence.

  75. The Weather Channel uses it when showing future weather for an area for the next 24-36 hours. I don’t know about its accurracy. The thing to keep in mind with futurecast and all those other that show the forecast in the future is that is just one model predicting those precipitation amounts.

  76. 12Z Canadian is in:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=042&fixhh=1&hh=039

    Total precip for Boston = 12.5MM or .49 Inch, consistent with what we have seen.

    UKMET

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=042

    Total precip for Boston = 6.5 mm or 0.255906 inches.

    So these 12Z models are NOT on board with RPM

    Waiting on King Euro! lol

  77. RPM is a proprietary model created by WSI and available for use by its media clients, among others. It is what you see a lot of those television futurecast models based on. Weather Central has their proprietary model Microcast or now Super-Microcast. Which I actually prefer, but I am a little biased. Weather Central has been recently purchased by WSI. Accuweather has Accumodel which in my opinion is not worth the time it took me type this…

      1. It is pretty close to the NAM, less than GFS and not close to the RPM.

        Here are a few locations I just selected.

        Springfield 2″
        Worcester 3″
        Lawrence 3″
        Boston 3.8″
        Providence 4.5″
        Taunton 4.5″

        Jackpot West South West of Providence about 6″.

        It is showing a slightly later onset. 4pm and fast moving. Gone before sunrise except coastal locations.

  79. My guess, and if i were a betting man, my bet, is the euro will not show much if any change from previous runs in keeping much of the heaviest precip offshore and throwing similar qpf’s as the NAM did earlier today. No radical changes.

  80. Watched Barry on WBZ and I think he is waiting for some info. very shortly – maybe around 1 or so. I am guessing he is waiting for the Euro? I think we are all waiting for the Euro – smtms. it can be very accurate – or not! 🙂

  81. Barry Burbank Tweet: 1 hr ago
    I don’t think we want or need 2 major storms back to back. Not pulling out the stops yet until I examine more data into the afternoon. #wbz

  82. HM’s blog mentions snow ratios 10:1 near coast to 15:1 inland…may explain some forecasts for higher amounts inland although precip will be less.

  83. Brett Anderson ‏@BrettAWX 1 hr ago
    Things could get real interesting over extreme SE New England Saturday evening (strong winds/heavy, wet snow)

  84. Barry Burbank Tweet: 7 min. ago
    Based upon latest guidance as of 1:30pm, here is my projected snowfall for tomorrow’s storm. #wbz pic.twitter.com/C2aRrWfw

    can probably find it on the wbz site

    3. Barry’s info. still not on WBZ site yet. Prob’ly will be soon. Unfortunately, I don’t “tweet”. 🙂

        1. Thanks, OS! Looked back at earlier posts and saw your discussion w/Tom and he got it right on the money to where Barry is saying!

        2. Given the current surface temps across NE and the ocean temps I think BB will spot on. Not good for me 🙁

  85. Bahh, 12Z EURO basically the same. We can all relax. Although, it does track closer to the BM, but with much less qpf. Interesting that the snowfall funtion on wundermaps only gives a max of 2 or 3″ from worcester to boston to Providence, but rain or mix everywhere east and south of that triangle with no snow accum.

    1. I have my doubts about the snowfall funtion on wundermap. I dont think it was very accurate with the storm the other day. Even still, I dont see a lot given that run of the euro. I see less.

      1. I think their snowfall maps are bogus, however, the precip
        maps, I think are OK. Even so, not all that much.

        Blah, blah, blah…….

    1. Welcome back Hadi. Looks like you had an enjoyable and exciting trip.

      Now you can see some snow down here! 😀

  91. and yet again my area is robbed. 128 to 495 belt is always to far north for the most or to warm . grrrr. i hate my locations.as my area will probably onlyt get 2 or 3 inches

  93. Anyone remember a storm like this two years ago, it was just a miss and the nam nailed it as it backed into us and dumped a foot overnight.

    1. I recall the NAM nailing one, but I couldn’t tell you the situation.
      Could very well be what you say.

  96. The 12Z Nogaps and the 12Z Jma are both WELL East of the Benchmark.
    Not that it necessarily means anything at all, since they are not the most
    reliable models out there.

  99. Level 1 snow event north of the pike along with the Cape and The Islands as well as the coastal areas along the south shore
    Level 2 snow event everywhere else.
    This will be a quick hitting storm system but COULD deliver several inches of snow to parts of SNE. I would expect advisories and maybe even warnings to be issued later this afternoon.

  101. Maybe im not seeing something here. Nowhere, with the exception of the RPM model, do i see 6″ of snow. Maybe with high ratios, maybe, but temps will be marginal for duration of event thus ratios will prob be low. Unless you blend all the models together? But then the RPM will bring up the avg accumulations. If they were discounting the NAM completely from the forecast for the last storm bc it was an outlier, than shouldnt the same logic be used with the RPM?

  102. Just looking ahead, at hr. 144 of the EURO, I see a very weak disturbance around Chicago, a very weak 1015 mb low and I see unsettled weather in the deep southeast. Wonder if thats something to keep an eye on ….. clearly two separate flows, not phasing. But, I keep thinking the big one is coming not with 10 to 16 days notice, but probably with 3 to 5 days notice. With neither of those probably yet to be over the southwest US or Central Canada, it might be interesting to see if in a few days, something more phased and developed suddenly appears for around Jan 4 or 5.

    1. Previous GFS runs have shown systems in the 1/3 – 1/6 time frame.

      Perhaps you’re onto something. We’ll be watching.

      Thanks

  104. *** TO THE FEW NEW PEOPLE COMMENTING TODAY FOR THE FIRST TIME

    Welcome to the blog!

    My apologies for taking a while to approve your first message (one time thing as long as you use the same email for each post). I am mobile for a few hours during the day and can’t really do site admin that way, so it has to wait until I have my laptop in front of me.

    Thanks for your patience!

    1. I used a new phone for the first time and I noticed that there was a space between hate rain. I think that is why one of my comments went into mediation. There should be no space.

  105. So far I’m going to go for minimum 1 inch in the extreme northwestern parts of my forecast area (MA/NH border outside 495) to maximum 6 inches in areas south and southwest of Boston away from the immediate shore. Yes I am aware of the upswing in some model precip totals but I’m not fully biting on these at this point. I’ve seen this before, only for it not to come to fruition. Hence my caution.

    Accumulation expected from 1-3 inches north of the Mass Pike to 3-6 inches along and south of the Pike. Possibility of isolated heavier over some higher elevations south of the Pike but it will really have to come down hard as this thing will be moving along.

    It almost looks to me like the models (especially NAM & GFS) are having issues deciding which shortwave to make dominant. This alone is enough to make me hesitate to buy either model run full on. Whether a piece of data came in questionable at initialization or not I am not sure. I know it’s cutting it close, but I want 2 more model runs (18z & especially 0oz) of NAM/GFS before I make any significant changes to my accumulation projection.

    1. Thanks for the update. You’re close to what BB indicated, but a bit
      more conservative.

      18Z NAM coming out now.

  107. TK, I think you are right on with your amounts. Even if this comes closer the storm is progressive and I can not see the 9 inch amounts that even BB brought up on the radio. In fairness he did say those would be maximums in just a few areas. I hope he is correct even though it was not for my area. I am in the 1-2 inch area, I feel Matt Souza’s frustration.

    1. I’ll be posting some links shortly. There is something on the 500MB charts
      I want to share and see what folks here think?

    2. Yes, was just comparing to the 12z GFS, maybe a 25 to 50 mile shift ??? to the NW (I’m guessing and just looking at the precip colors). There’s dark blue to Boston and now the heavy previp gets onto Cape Cod.

  110. Couple of shots of Artic air to welcome the New Year? Well, that’s the only type of shots I’ll be having New Years Eve 😉

  111. a general 1 to 3 inches of snow north of the pike south of the nh and vt boarder.. and west of i95.
    3-6 with local 8 inch amounts possible in interior southeast mass into northwest rd. south of the pike up east of i95, coastal areas up to 3 inches.
    less than one inch in south nh and vt.

  113. re: 18Z NAM

    First of all here is the total snowfall map for the event:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122818&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=042

    Here is the closet pass at 36 hours:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2012122818&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=036

    This is what I find most interesting. Look at the buckle on the 500MB chart:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2012122818&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=032

    And finally the 300MB winds above the 500MB for the same time, 32 hours.
    Now if this would just buckle a little more, that system will come closer and be
    stronger yet.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2012122818&var=GRDHGT_300mb&hour=032

    Do we have a trend here? Let’s see what 18Z GFS says, and more importanly,
    the whole 0Z suite of models.

    3. One other thing….what is that hole in the snow Northeast of Boston?
      It has more snow North and also down off the Cape????

      Weird.

      1. I didn’t notice that the first time. That is strange. Primary dying and new storm taking over sometimes has a void in between.

  114. Non-storm, Portland, ME with a 10 inch snowsdepth in late December has made it to 36F and Logan made it to 37F with air that is coming in off of a snowpack to our north and west. Now, it feels cold out, but when I see these temps, its not that cold an airmass. Just reporting this in general, not infering anything from it towards tomorrow’s event.

  115. Of all things, the Burlington, VT office has put up a winter weather advisory for 2 to 5 inches of snow in central VT, parts of the Adirondacks, etc.

      1. Me too, I was on the Taunton NWS website, saw the blue winter weather advisory key and clicked on it out of curiosity.

    2. And the Grey, ME ofc in its afternoon discussion is indicating 2 to 4 inches for their forecast area.

      If it doesnt snow 2 to 4 inches in Boston and the above happens, then its time to relocate during the winter months. 🙂

      For eastern Marshfield, I am setting my expectations at hoping to get 1 to 2 inches and if that happens, I’ll be happy. Anything more, I’ll be thrilled !!

    3. From NWS Gray, ME:

      .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
      — Changed Discussion –MODELS ARE INDICATING A 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL FOR THE FORECAST
      AREA. SNOW WILL START EARLY AFTERNOON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MID TO
      LATE AFTERNOON IN MAINE. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
      MOVING OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND HEAD NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE
      WILL REFORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL BE A BIT TOO
      FAR TO THE SOUTH TO GIVE US A BIG DUMP OF SNOW AS ALL MODELS ARE
      SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH OF THE 40 70 BENCHMARK.
      NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE ALL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

  116. Just checked NOAA website for Littleton, MA detailed forecast…before noon it said 1-2 inches…now it shows 1-2 saturday and 2-4 additional sat. night. Barry Burbank said in his radio clip on ride home from the course, 1-3 north of mass pike. It appears there’s a lot of more info that’s needed to come to a conclusion for amounts…I would like to think with the cold air that snow ratios will be quite fluffy and may enhance amounts.

  117. The winter weather advisories are being posted quicker than school cancellations on a snowy morning…… Now one for southern portions of CT.

    Can only imagine what the Taunton office is going to put out and how high the snowfall totals will be on their next snowfall map. Wouldnt be shocked by a winter storm watch for parts of interior SE Mass…….

      1. No, They’re polishing up the darts and preparing a map
        to which they’ll toss the darts thus determining the snow amounts.

    1. Years ago they used to give heavy snow watches and warnings for
      6 inches plus. Then it got changed to Winter Storm watches and warnings.

      For straight snow, I think it is still 6 inches, but if significant freezing rain/sleet
      is involved, I do believe the total accumulations can be less.

      Just my thoughts.

      1. i wish they had heivy snow warnings. snow advisories. for events of pure snow. and winter storm warnings when it is a mix of precipitation. just my opinion.

    2. Well, looking on the site, a warning is if 6 inches are likely to fall in 12 hrs or 8 inches are likely to fall in 24 hrs.

      The old snowmao from this morning, but to the right of it are 4 inch and 8 inch probabilities and just s/sw of Boston, there’s a region where thre’a a 55 to 60% chance of 4 inches. I dont recall aeeing this earlier today.

  119. NWS Upton, NY:

    .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/…
    — Changed Discussion –CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS TIME FRAME. LOOKING AT
    OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS OF SFC LOW TRACK…LOOKS PERFECT
    FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA RIGHT AROUND THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.
    OF COURSE…IT IS NEVER THAT SIMPLE WHEN FORECASTING WINTER
    WEATHER FOR THESE COASTAL LOCATIONS…

    bunch of blah….

    OVERALL…STILL EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES…WITH BANDED PRECIP LIKELY
    PRODUCING TOTAL OVER 6 INCHES IN SPOTS FROM NRN NYC THROUGH THE
    LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF CT.

  120. HM going with a very conservative approach calling for 1-3″ for most of SNE and isolated 4″ amounts. Again, hes no fun when hes conservative, but if the higher amounts verify, he will end up being wrong even when hes conservative. The guy cant win!

  122. Point forecasts and the zone forecasts from NWS say 1-3 for Metro Boston for daytime accumulation Saturday. Too high. Maybe 1 in some areas by sunset. In fact, by sunset it may have only been snowing for an hour or 2 in many areas.

  125. marsh is frozen over no open water besides for the actual river. and even ice on that. first time i have seen this in 2 seasons.

  126. 4-6 in Boston, 6-8 a lot of area south and southwest of Boston. If they just showed a gradient along the coastline, my confidence in the amts in general would be higher.

  127. I’m not getting my expectations up to end up being really discouraged. I’ll stay with 1-2 in my neighborhood right by the water and anything more will be a wonderful bonus.

      1. Havent moved much all day, keeping weight off my ankle.

        Looks good for you John, as I dont think the ocean will have as much impact where you are, except to maybe make the snow wet.

          1. Well, if you take Taunton as well as all the TV forecasts I’ve seen today, I’d think Pembroke is expected to be in the 4-7 inch range. That sounds like a pretty decent snowfall, are you thinking more ?

            1. That sounds about right with it being close to your high number. Maybe add an inch. You as well should get the action. Wildcard is the cape. They could go either way.

  130. winter storm watch for southern worcester county, bristal, plymouth, norfolk counties and all of rd. for 4-8 inches of snow
    winter weathe advisory for northern worcester county, middlesex. essex, franklin, hampshire,hapden and suffolk counties counties and all of ct for 3-5 inches of snow with local 6.

  131. I do think the Taunton snow totals are a bit overdone, probably by 1-2 inches across the board and definitely so within a few miles of the coastline south of Boston.

  132. If this storm is going to hold any surprises it sure doesn’t have much time to do it. 12 hour event. Here, then gone.

    Not adjusting amounts at this time after digesting the 18z guidance.

  133. Todd on BZ shifted the higher numbers a bit further south. 3-6 for Boston. 6-8 only now in a zone into southern Bristol and southern Plymouth counties.

    1. I saw the maps of all 3 stations in Boston (4, 5, 7) and I agree with something close to what 4 & 7 have. I think Harv may be a TOUCH too high in a few areas.

      1. TK, is there a point where short term models become much more relivant (i know being a short term model would obviously imply its for short term use), but at some point do the outputs from these models take on more weight in a forecast as the event gets closer? and do the global medium/long term models start to lose it on the details which become more important as an event is eminent?

    1. Yes. I went 1-3 N, 3-6 S, locally higher spot totals in higher elevations inland southern MA / northern RI.

  136. Listen to this dallas is building the biggest man made ski hill in country, yes it’s gonna be fake snow but talk about a city that has everything, seriously!! You will be able to go sking on a 1,000 ft hill, it will be finished in 2015

            1. Charlie I know you have trouble understanding that it embarrasses it for you but it sure doesn’t for me. Everyone likes different things. Doesn’t make them better. As far as traffic. I don’t think anyone in the 50s was worried about that. As I said. Artificial is great but we have the real thing.

        3. i think the outdoor ski areas did not want it because the indoor place can stay open all year long and it would have alot of man made snow. and a controled temperatue would make it real easy to make the best man made powder.

          2. Matt they didnt use real snow. It was almost like an artificial putting green surface. Hard as heck to ski on. It didnt pose any threat to the real areas

            1. I’m not gonna go back and forth on who’s better Vicki, but when u have a state that is basically holding steady and a state that’s absolutely booming, that should tell u alot, hope everything’s well 🙂

              1. hmmm as of Nov 2012 Mass unemployment was lower by about .4 % and the per capita income was higher by about $15,000. COL was lower in Texas but the poverty level was one of the worst in the country. We won’t even talk about their education system and how they distort our nation’s history. Enjoy 🙂

                1. Keith i agree. TX is in for a world of hurt. Perry has robbed Peter to pay Paul and the education system along with other areas are in serious trouble.

                3. With all do respect why r 1.5 million people are moving here per decade? Just curious on your thoughts on that, thanks and enjoy the snow coming

      2. My dad taught at bob Johnson’s indoor ski school. I think it started in newton. Well back into the 50s or earlier.

        1. I think it was Vicki. I first heard about this place when I worked in the ski wear industry back in the late 80s.

          1. Bob Johnson’s actually moved to framingham and was still operating when we moved here in 1979. I suspect it closed soon after. Bob was getting on in years. I remember the metal posts at the bottom and having to either stop or else. And as I said it was anything but easy to ski on

            1. When I worked in the ski wear industry I remember hearing Bob’s name. It was (and still is I imagine) a tight night industry.

              1. Really. That gives me goosebumps. He and my dad were best friends for most of their lives. Tx for posting that. Nice memories. Did you know Carroll reed also?

                1. Didn’t know Carol Reed but did have some contact with the Von Trapp family as we sold their lodge some of our product. I actually dated a girl (can’t remember her name) a couple of times whose father was one of the first to ski the headwall at Tuckerman. Funny thing is hardly ski at all (mostly cross country).

                2. Keith my dad skied tuckerman on barrel slats before skis but I don’t think we dated but I bet there’s a connection. Very, very cool about Von trapp family.

  139. Alright all done with my work for now…

    So I’m going with the positive and upbeat forecast for tomorrow.

    I think 3-6 northwest of Boston and for Boston south and west 10-15inchs with 3-6 plymouth south. I have nothing to base this on just hoping and praying for alot of snow.

  140. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB

    Harvey here…here is my current snowfall forecast..but, I am seeing signs it might be a bit more pic.twitter.com/IgoTv8ly
    Hide photo

  141. For some reason I am feeling exceptionally confident that Westborough will receive exactly 5 inches of snow…

    2. A great winter night Vicki. Tomorrow should be a fun day with some snow flying and several college football games to watch.

      1. I know many have to work on weekends but for most its time off and my very favorite time for a storm. Football, snow and a roaring fire. It’s as good as it gets

  144. Origin of the name Freyr (rhymes with “flare”)- A Norse god associated with fair weather, among other things.

      1. Just don’t understand why they didn’t choose names like Hurricanes get, especially the first year. Maybe it would have caught on a little more. They are also naming them too quickly!

      1. I was giddy when posting it, realizing the potential for mega storm hype and runs on milk, bread and emptying the nearest red box of any and all DVDs grows a little bit.

  148. i hope none of my family members have a hard time getting to my holiday party. but im more worried about my grandparents getting home safe :/. but i like the snow. conflicted.
    less than 2 inches north of rt 2
    2-4 ct. and areas north of the pike and south of rt 2
    4-8 south of the pike down into rd.
    2-4 south coast and around the canal
    less than 2 on the cape and islands.

    1. See my post below regarding NOAA’s forecast for rt.2 @ 495 (aka Littleton)…looks like you might be a little low on prediction for up here with less than 2″

  149. Just checked in at noaa.gov…detailed snowfall forecast for Littleton, Ma has changed once again…was 1-2″ this am…then midday switched to 3-6″..now has increased to 4-8″

  150. I don’t get the wording on NWS’s point forecasts sometimes: “cooler with lows 10-15” … Oh just a nice cool night, wonderful for a walk. How about using the word “cold” to describe that low temp!

    3. My favs are on the NWS 7 day forecast where they say chance of snow before 1am then a chance of snow and rain between 1am and 2am then a snow after 2am…LOL

        1. Well it is known in the WSI community that it is a very good model most of the time, and it’s dumping a whole lot of snow over eastern MA.

  154. Waiting to see what the 0z runs have to say.
    I had to up the snow index earlier to a 2 since I think there will places in SNE exceeding 4 inches with the exception of north of the pike and the coastal areas along the South Shore Cape and Islands. Earlier I was thinking a general 2-4 inches for SNE.

  155. i have a weather radio and had it for a while. I only get 3 channals
    chanal 4 says forcast for areas inside of 495 including boston
    chanel 6 says the forcast for areas north of rt 2 up into southwest nh
    channel 7 says the forcast for areas in central massachusetts. including worcester.

    is their anyway of getting channels for interior northeast massachusetts. i have been tring for a year with this new weather radio. i had one for 8 years and i had a channel for the Merrimack valley , and also a forcast for interior northeast mass. I do not seem to get a forcast for northeast mass. is their anyway to set it differently?

    1. if your weather radio has a telescoping antenna you might try swapping it out for a longer one. I do that with my portable FM radios and it helps. If you radio can modified to handle an external antenna then a vertical whip placed outside would help pull in more stations. The range of the NOAA stations varies due to differences in power output and terrain

  157. TK it must bombing out the storm a couple hours earlier to generat that type of snow.

    TK Do you remember that storm two years ago? You and Barry would not buy into the NAM and bam a foot later, very similar set up IMHO.

    2. I remember it very well. 😛 Thanks for the reminder!

      The concern I have is even if it is bombing out, it’s hauling out too. For that to verify, 10-15 inches would have to fall very fast………..

    3. I think that one had upper level energy coming through W Va and Md and we got over 12 between 11pm and 7 am.

  159. Charlie are you going to miss this storm?

    Btw I hav lived all over the world, London, Paris etc… And I would never live in TX. Back ass state, yes nice buildings etc…. But can’t hold a candle to the charm, charisma and beauty of Boston. Thank god we don’t resemble TX in any way.

        1. Not funny and not me. That was Mac. And never personal. Everyone has different likes. None are better than the other……..right 😉

    3. Agreed! I couldn’t take the severe weather they have either. I like the amount of it we get here. Not excessive.

    1. Haha, thanks Hadi. Looks like each individual media outlet has their own RPM model and its not available to the general public. Anyways, i wonder if most mets are blending the RPM’s output into the snowfall forecasts. I said it earlier today, but in no runs of the NAM/GFS/EURO, etc. do i see over 6” for eastern MA.

  165. I remember a storm in the late 80’s. it was a clipper expected to bomb and give 18-24. I think we got an inch. Mark Rosenthal really hyped that up on a Sunday night. Lucky for him he didn’t have to be on again until the following weekend!

    2. North…I remember that storm and Mark Rosenthal’s forecast as well and actually IIRC…we got “two” inches, LOL.

      I also remember being bummed out to say the least…like I was after the 1978 Sox-Yankee playoff game. It took me quite awhile to get over it. 🙁

  167. I am heading out for the evening but will be at a spot that I have access to a friend’s laptop. I will check in from there as the new info comes in.

    1. TK enjoy and I do remember the days when we headed out at 9:00. As opposed to those where we are aslleeeeppppp……zzzzzzzzz

  169. I’m away from the house and on my iPhone and hoping someone can give me the latest in forecast amounts for Boston. Thanks.

  180. Selfishly, I think this scenario of not close enough is a better chance for the immediate coastal south shore to get snow. I’d be happy with a few inches, as opposed to last night’s dusting that melted in the sun faster than frost does.

    The southern stream seems active this year and were seeing cold shots from time to time. I really think we get the two to meet/phase over the next couple of months for a local, big snowfall.

      1. Have fun while there and a safe trip home. And a wonderful new year celebration. Sorry you are missing the first first night……..ahh darn I couldn’t help myself. Just kidding. Enjoy Charlie. 😀

  182. On the wundermap if you look at a side by side comparison of the 18z nam and 00z nam it looks like the storm is further north yet the heavy precip never makes it past plymouth? I think somethings up. To me I believe the streams are going to meet up alot sooner and push more precip north.

    1. I agree TJ. The center of the storm is slightly closer to the coast yet the precip shield shrinks inward? I dont think so. If this is bombing out as it gets to our latitude that precip shield will be expanding rapidly west.

  184. TJ I agree that track should offer more precip.

    Tom I agree one or two major phasing system appear in the cards.

  185. If you look at that bow of t-storms I’m talking about and the 00z NAM first panel, it just about matches up with the new low development. Let’s see how this follows the models for verification.

  186. This jumps at me, looking at the NAM it takes all the big QPF at the center of the low. That makes no sense as the QPF is always to the northwest of the low.

    1. I think last of phasing at our latitude is why the greatest lift isn’t on the W/SW as in a really strong and mature storm. It’ll be where you’re talking, just up in Atlantic Canada.

  189. Just so everyone knows I have 3 places where I’m going to settle but looking at land and other different things, it’s either dallas, California or staying in Boston, I love boston but it will be a tough decision, decision has to be made by Feb, have a good day everyone and enjoy the snow 🙂

  190. A couple of things-

    I talked to my brother who is a broadcast met in the south and they are a WSI client. Their “futurecast model” is the RPM. So he uses it everyday. He says for his forecast area it is marginally reliable when compared to the verification numbers for the GFS/NAM, but is certainly not on par with the ECMWF. It tends to over amp storms and runs with a cold bias in the south. It is frequently too quick to bring precip in and holds on to it too long. However it nailed a Christmas storm that they got about 60 hours out and it took the NAM and GFS 36 more hours to come on board. So it can be right. However at 24 hrs it had good model agreement with the NAM and ECMWF on precip amounts. We don’t quite see that here.

    I think a lot of people are buying on a model that for the most part they never heard of 12 hours ago because it is telling them what they want to hear.

    I also hate this set up for significant snow in SNE.

    First this is not an optimal set up for dendritic growth which is going to lower ratios on snow that does fall.

    Second I do not like seeing that digging pacific trough and then a flattening of the flow into the south central plains and into the midwest. That screams to me a further south scenario particularly with some hints of a slight south east ridge forming. I think there may be some model error trending this open wave so far north.

    00z NAM is .3-.5 West to East /North to South until you get south of the I95/495 interchange where amounts are 0.5- 0.7., North to South. I am going to slightly undercut those numbers and then use only a 10-11:1 ratio.

    Generally 2-4″ west to east / north to south. 4-6″ South of I-95/495 and then lesser amounts at the immediate southeastern ma coast and the cape, trending closer to 1-3″

    To be honest I am uncomfortable with the 4-6 South amount, but going with it for now.

    Not trying to rain on anybody’s ideas. They are all valid, just telling you what I see and what my concerns are.

  192. I like the whole setup just because we have so many unknowns will it be further north, further south, how much precip etc. Could be a decent snowstorm, a big storm, or a complete Bust and go to far south.. Its what keeps us coming back for more.

    1. Actually Hadi, seeing how much you have learned and now apply in your writing on the blog has been pretty cool to watch. You should be proud!

    1. not for me i have a family party. hoping to god that thye get here before it snows and they aresafe on their way home expecially my grandparents.

    1. Go ahead. I will be at granddaughters bday in morning but hopefully can catch up in pm. Put words dec 29 prediction in body and I can search that. Do another location too if u want

          1. North if you are going to be on it’d be great if you kept track. Thank you I won’t be at my computer until 2ish

    2. Thats insane! For a 12 hr duration storm (and thats being generous) it would have to snow at 1-2”/hr for the entire storm for that to verify! Imagine if it did though…I think i would bow down to the snow gods

      1. Matt Noyes said its been over amplifying storms all year he thinks it convective feedback. Todd Gutner posted on twitter that it better be for their sakes..HAHA

  204. No way that happens, it must be having connective feedback to show that type of precip in such a short duration.

  206. Ok. If you want to guess on the accumulations, Logan and Providence guesses in by 10 am. Don’t have to do both. Put 12/29 prediction in with guess so Vicki or I can search.

  214. Btw if anyone checks out the accuweather blog which joke a lot of the times Brett Anderson is on there right now with some good stuff.

  217. Im still thinking Boston get at least 5-6 south shore towns at least 8/ somone gets a foot maybe Brockton and cape cod is still the wild card. Enjoy the snow.

  220. The thing I have learned for looking at the models is how they initialize with what’s currently going on. Ie look at where the storm is at 0-6 hours and see what happens, over or under performing, 850 temps etc… Gives a good idea if the run makes sense.

  221. So for example take a look at the snow in Indiana right now and both the GFS and nam did not get the right, not to say that transfers over to our area but something to keep an eye on.

  223. Ok. Heading off to bed. I will check in for any guesses left overnight tomorrow am. If you want to, it is for accumulations in Boston and Providence for the 12/29 storm and they need to be in by 10am.

    So at I have Charlie, Lisa, Matt Souza and Keith.

  227. I saw a comment about the NAO and although its positive you could still get a light to moderate snowfall with that setup. You won’t get a blockbuster since the storm system will be progressive due to the fact there is no blocking with the positive NAO.

  233. Other than a little lake effect from that link you posted the country will be quiet. After this storm things look to be going into boring mode for a while.

      1. I don’t think 3 weeks of weather bordem. I think at least a week. Hopefully after that it will end since I will be
        wanting a storm to track.

      1. The latest CPC outlook shows that well with above normal precipitation across parts of the south.
        Up here its below normal precipitation.

  234. Hadi,
    Look at this updated discussion out of Indianapolis. Looks like part 1 is over achieving from what the NWS thought earlier.

    EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FURTHER NORTH AND DECIDED TO GO
    WITH WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST
    AREA. HEAVY BAND OF SNOW HAS ALREADY DROPPED ANYWHERE FROM 2-4
    INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA…AND CONCERN
    IS THAT ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS THE
    SOUTHERN ROUND OF SNOW ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.

    STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT 500H WAS THE LEADING FACTOR FOR
    THE UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HEAVIEST
    AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOCALIZED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
    WITH AS MUCH AS 5 TO 7 INCHES IN SOME PLACES. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
    IS SHOWING SOME HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN
    ILLINOIS…AND DO NOT EXPECT THOSE TO WEAKEN ANYTIME SOON.

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