Snow Then Wind To End 2012

298 Comments

3:06AM

The last 3 days of 2012 will feature a variety of winter weather from snow/mix today to a windy and cold Sunday to a chilly & breezy New Year’s Eve. The details of these days…

Today: Low pressure will rapidly develop and intensify while passing southeast of New England. Snow will break out except mix/rain over Cape Cod and possible mix along the New England South Coast and immediate South Shore of MA due to milder ocean water. The mix/rain areas will see snow later at night as cold air finally takes over. Factors that favor snow accumulation include the rapid deepening of the storm and a potential coastal front setting up over southeastern MA (it often snows heavy in an area just west of one of these features as milder ocean air rides up over very cold air just to the west of the boundary). Factors that limit snow accumulation include the track of the storm being south of the “benchmark” for big storms of 40N latitude & 70W longitude, and the very rapid movement of the developing low, pulling precipitation out of the region rather quickly late Saturday night. So I will up the amounts slightly from the previous forecast but remain somewhat conservative just the same.

Sunday: All of the precipitation will be offshore and moving away, but the explosive deepening of the storm as it moves through Nova Scotia Canada on its way toward the North Atlantic will result in a gusty wind as high pressure also tries to build in from the west.

Monday: Fair and chilly weather will dominate as high pressure slides to the south of New England but a gusty breeze will keep up as well.  Some clouds may  move in at night but no precipitation is expected for  First Night and the air will not be all that cold.

Looking ahead to the first few days of 2012…

Tuesday: An approaching cold front will bring lots of clouds and milder air with a few rain or snow showers possible for the first day of the new year.

Wednesday: Dry & chilly as high pressure dominates.

Thursday: A small low pressure system from south central Canada crosses the Great Lakes then pushes across New England. With colder air in place, snow showers will be possible.

Friday: Shot of arctic air with a bright, windy, and very cold day expected.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Overcast. Snow developing southwest to northeast midday through afternoon, but mixed rain/snow South Coast and immediate South Shore and rain or mix Cape Cod. Highs from the upper 20s southern NH to the upper 30s along the South Coast and Cape. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Snow except mix/rain changing to snow in southeastern coastal areas and over Cape cod, all tapering off west to east by dawn. Snow accumulation ranging from 2-4 inches over far northern MA and southern NH to 4-6 inches over the remainder of MA southward into northern RI except 1-4 inches due to mixing along the South Coast, immediate South Shore, and Cape Cod. Isolated amounts of 7 or 8 inches can occur in higher elevations away from the coast southwest and south of Boston.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 inland valleys to 20-25 along the coast. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind variable 5-10 MPH. First Night Forecast – Clouds move in, temperature cools toward 30, light wind.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or snow showers PM. Low 30. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 34.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Low 10. High 25.

298 thoughts on “Snow Then Wind To End 2012”

  1. TK, thanks for update. I think your snow totals look a little higher than I would have thought. Should be a nice day!

  3. Thanks TK.
    I believe this is the first winter storm warning issued for Boston since the end of January 2011. I don’t believe a warning was issued for snowtober.

  4. My son is a year and a half old. He he been through two tropical storms and this is his first winter storm warning.

    Like most of use I have not used or even moved my snow thrower since January 2011. I was fully ready for a hassle starting it. Luckily it started on the first pull.

    WINNING!

    1. I’m almost afraid to try out my snowblower. Last time I used it was also back in January of 11. I was lucky enough to buy it brand new that winter. Every store laughed at me when I called around looking for one. Wish me luck today. 😉

  5. Waiting at Hingham Limber for it to open. Noticed the moon shinning through the thin clouds until it just disappeared with the heavier clouds that just moved in.

  6. One thing which is good with this storm system is its going to move along since the NAO is positive and we don’t have the blocking to slow this thing down.

  7. Why is that good JJ? Slow this baby down and drop 2-3 feet 🙂

    Anyway boy the 06z was really juicy, probably too much but I bet somewhere come in at a foot from the coastal front.

    OS I notice we do very well in JP with this type of set up!!

  9. I am just trying to give a positive for those who read this blog that are not big snow fans. As you know I would love to see a blockbuster here.

    1. No problem. I will be around until about 5 ad will post them later this morning.

      For anyone who wants to predict the totals for Boston and Providence for snow from this storm, post them by 10 am this morning and I will post the list later this am.

  13. Ok, here’s what I’ve got North.

    The juicy stuff shooting south of us makes me nervous but here it is….

    8″ worcester (calmer wind and colder means higher ratio)

    5″ Logan (lower ratio and maybe some mixing right at the airport)

  14. Hmmmmm….Things definitely got interesting overnight. Euro looks great to me and now the nam is saying more precip. How about the RPM anyone heard? It could actually be the outlier that has well over a foot of snow. I think thats a bit of wishful thinking on my part.

    12/29 Logan gets 15″

  15. I did notice this morning that the Indianapolis NWS discussion that I posted last night was updated this morning to say there was higher amounts than they anticipated and that the snow was sticking around a little longer than anticipated as well out there. There were isolated 9-10 inch amounts.

  16. Gee, I did so well with Augusta Maine’s snow total, but here goes anyway ……

    Logan : 3.2 inches. Eastern end of Marshfield : 1.4 inches. Providence : 5.1 inches

    While the air temp at Boston Harbor’s buoy is 34F, the dewpoint is 24F. We’ll see what they both are later this afternoon.

    On the above amounts, I went 80% trying to avoid major disappointment and 20% towards verification. Think low, receive high. 🙂 Better than think high, receive low. 🙂 thats my only two options, cause option three is be correct and that doesnt apply to my forecasting ability. 🙂

    1. Hahahahahaha. I was very scientific for Logan. I took today’s date since its my greandaughters birthday and stuck a decimal in the middle 🙂

      1. I like that. Lets see if I do that with my daughters bdays and averaged them, it would come out to ……. 1.7 🙁

  21. Tim Kelley’s great…Now I only need another couple of inches to hit 15!!

    Tom, I don’t care if we hit 15″ I just want snow so if we end up with only 5 thats fine with me its been fun to watch a storm that is going to produce some snow around here.

  22. Mornin all! The current radar is making me nervous. That gap needs to fill in quick and I’d like to see some northerly movement to that southern stream blob. Waiting till closer to 10am to give a prediction.

    1. Yes, I know sometimes doing this with the radar doesnt always work out, but, I was thinking the exact same thing.

        1. From reading Todd Gutner’s blog from last night, precip isn’t supposed to start until this afternoon, providing enough time for it to fill in and get going.

  24. North, not sure if you got my numbers posted late last night.
    5 inches sounds like a good call for Boston
    9 for Providence
    Thanks

  25. I am still sitting here in Maine, in disbelief with some of the forecast amounts for the Boston area. Time will tell.

  26. Ace patience until the primary storm develops off the coast, the transfer is going on right now.

    If anyone noticed the nam which has been good as of late you will see QPF near 1 inch from Boston southwards. This puppy is going to blow its just exactly where. Even the king blows this thing sooner. So lets put down the models except for QPF and use radar.

    1. We see this setup a lot in the winter where one storm fades and the other takes over. I am noticing a lot of energy with the
      southern system including some lightning strikes over the fish.

  27. Joe Joyce at 7 am.

    6-10″ south of Pike, southern/SE MA & RI. 4-6″ north and west. 1-4″ Cape and Islands. Joe sees 8 pm -2 am as the heavy period. He said that lots depends on banding.

    My thoughts: Though the storm is progressive the cold part of the storm and the Gulf piece seem to almost meet off of Nantucket and lots could happen when “warm meets cold.” Looks like Newfoundland could take a hit since the storm seems to intensify after it leaves us. If the storms slows a little we might see greater amounts. No reason to believe this will happen, but it would be nice to get 1 dumpster this season. I’m about where Sue is — 5-6″ at Logan. (I am told by my snow plow buddies that a couple of additional inches creates quite a plowing difference.)

  29. The banding is really key, west of that coastal front could being 2 inch per hour snow and the high snow totals.

  30. Finally an AccuWeather Trivia Quiz that I expect 100% of all my Woodshill brethern to get right.

    On avarage 1″ of rain is equivalent to how much snow?
    A. 12″
    B. 10″
    C. 5″
    D. 1″

    3. I’m going to go with “D”, not because I don’t know what the real answer is, but so I can look like I slept through college and didn’t study for my AccuWeather quiz. 😉

    6. it totally depends on snow ratio’s so its an unfair questions. it can be a or b but i will go with b since usually it is a 10 to 1 ratio.

  38. Here is the 8am update. Let me know if I missed anyone so far. I added in Worcester for Retrac. If anyone else wants to add a guess in for Worcester, just let me know.

    BOS PVD Worcester
    Charlie 4.4
    Lisa 3.5
    Matt Souza 2
    North 3.7 6.7
    Keith 4.3 6.9
    Merlin 8 11
    Vicki 2.9 8.4
    Sue 5.1 8.6
    Retrac 5 8
    TJ 15
    Tom 3.2 5.1
    Hadi 8.2 11.4
    JJ 5.7 8.1
    Scorpius 9.3 9.9
    Shotime 5 9

  42. Charlie – Logan 4.4
    Lisa – Logan 3.5
    Matt Souza – Logan 2
    North – Logan 3.7, Providence 6.7
    Keith – Logan 4.3, Providence 6.9
    Merlin – Logan 8, Providence 11
    Vicki – Logan 2.9, Providence 8.4
    Sue – Logan 5.1, Providence 8.6
    Retrac, – Logan 5, Worcester 8
    TJ – Logan 15
    Tom – Logan 3.2, Providence 5.1
    Hadi – Logan 8.2, Providence 11.4
    JimmyJames – Logan 5.7, Providence 8.1
    Scorpius – Logan 9.3, Providence 9.9
    Shotime – Logan 5, Providence 9
    Rainshine – Logan 8.5, Providence 11.3
    Nick – Logan 9, Providence 13, 6 Worcester

  43. Like someone said earlier I don’t like the radar presentation (gap), it may fill in but I think it phases a little too late. Logan a very wet snow 3.4 inches; Providence 5.5 inches. One other thing that caught my eye was TK’s temp. prediction for New Years. What happened to the bitter cold? We will lose a bit of the snow we get over the next few days.

    1. Do you remember some time ago (several days) I talked about the models probably not handling the timing of the coldest air very well and eventually correcting for a milder system around New Year’s Day? (I should go back and find that which was either part of an entry or one of my comments). It’s happening, to a degree.

      I fell into the trap myself for a few days, but it’s clear now that the coldest days will be the 2nd half of next week.

  46. I bet some thundersnow as the storm blows along that coastal front. This type of set up is notorious for high precip totals in a few spots.

  47. Can anyone say RPM? It’s beginning to look like that RPM run of yesterday may
    be spot on! 😀 😀 😀

    Here is the 12Z NAM at 14 hours (9PM tonight):

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2012122912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=014

    at 16 hours: (11PM tonight)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2012122912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=016

    at 18 Hours: (1AM)

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2012122912&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=018

    Will post the predicted NAM snowfall shortly.

    2. These look pretty good, although “may” still be a bit low.

      Here in JP, I’m going with 8 inches. Hadi, agree?

  49. Southern stream storm looks to merge with northern branch just in time and track over the 40/70. Coastal front is the wild card. Locations just to the west of front could exceed a foot of now. Enjoy!

    P.S. Nice guess John;)

    1. can you post it TK? It doesn’t suprise me that the RPM has come back to reality. However, look for snowfall totals to be higher than forecasted 24 hours ago.

      1. I don’t have the graphic. I’m in contact with those who run the model. I can say that most of the #’s on the latest run are under 6 inches.

            1. Agree.

              Btw, the NAM is usually quite good at this range, although noted for overcooking precip. But based on the track and intensification, I’d say NAM precip totals
              look real. We shall see.

              1. We always have to watch for overcooking on that model even within 12 hours of an event. Hadi stated above a shift of 20 miles and we get clocked…. A shift of 20 or 30 miles the other way and people that are ready with snowblowers will be using brooms instead. 🙂

            2. I don’t know enough about that model to solely count on it. And given its astronomically high #’s just a couple runs ago, it shows signs of instability.

          1. I agree with the downshift, maybe not completely to the degree it has, which is why I haven’t change my #’s much (only slightly from the last entry to this one).

  53. Insight on 2 not-really-related things:

    1) Remember that positioning of not only lows but highs can always be off on medium range guidance. We nit pick low positions down to tens of miles when trying to figure out snow totals, rain/snow lines, etc. As a forecaster, I also have to remind myself to pay attention to positioning of high pressure centers. We only seem to do this when we’re looking for that magical “high to the north” for a snowstorm. This is a case, beyond the storm, where positioning is making it clear that we won’t be having a frigid blast of air for New Year’s Day as the Euro said the other day. Not much high to the northwest supplying lots of cold air behind this thing (cold yes, but not arctic). The main high is in the south central to southeastern USA, getting ready to send a shot of milder air up ahead of the next frontal system (hence my 40+ for Tuesday).

    2) The large shield of snow on radar this morning is from the parent low and not from what will be new development taking place later. It’s not only fighting dry air but also gradually diminishing with time. This leaves us vulnerable to forecasting issues as now we need to trust in “the right models” in regards to how they handle development, timing, movement, and magnitude of new precipitation and associated atmospheric temperature conditions they will be occurring in. There is still plenty that can go awry here, and this is the main basis as to why I seldom ever make drastic changes to my posted #’s. Sometimes it will make me look like a bad forecaster, but most often it will just result in a tweak one way or another for one or more regions. I’m banking on this to work for me this time, despite guidance that is saying otherwise. Let’s see where this goes.

    1. Thank you for the insight. Do you see any possibilities that this becomes
      a biggie? 5%,10%, 25%, 0%. Curious

      1. Based 75% on gut feeling and 25% on science, 1 in 5 chance this becomes a biggie in that we see double-digit snowfall totals. If it were slower moving, I’d be in the 1 in 3 camp. Maybe after all this time “gut feeling” is itself science, since the definition of science includes making guesses based on observations. 🙂

      1. I can’t see it on my phone. Rainshine you have a great knowledge of maps and wonderful insight. Never be chicken to post. 🙂

        1. Thanks, Vicki. But my knowledge of maps is very limited. But I do admit at times I have good insight. And I have been told by many people that I should speak up more often. It’s just my nature – will try to change, in a good way! 🙂

          1. But if this storm doesn’t become that bad, please give the credit to OS as he posted his link first. And he is much smarter than me weather-wise!

  55. NWS Taunton:

    BASED ON ALL THIS…HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS FAR N AS
    NE MA /ESSEX COUNTY/ THEN THROUGH MIDDLESEX AND SOUTHERN WORCESTER
    COUNTY TO WINDHAM COUNTY CT. ELSEWHERE…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
    CONTINUE FOR REMAINDER OF REGION EXCEPT NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS
    VINEYARD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN…HEAVY AT TIMES. DID
    KEEP BLOCK ISLAND IN THE ADVISORY AS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY
    RECEIVE SOME SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE TONIGHT.

  57. Listening to WBUR right now and they have Mark Rosenthal on…he’s talking about 5-10 inches in the Boston area (out to 128). Heaviest between 8am and 4 am. He doesn’t think the rain/snow/mix line will go north of Plymouth and then collapse toward the SE.

  60. Here are the latest predictions, let me know if I missed yours. 10am is nearing!

    Charlie – Logan 4.4
    Lisa – Logan 7.6
    Matt Souza – Logan 2
    North – Logan 3.7, Providence 6.7
    Keith – Logan 4.3, Providence 6.9
    Merlin – Logan 8, Providence 11
    Vicki – Logan 2.9, Providence 8.4
    Sue – Logan 5.1, Providence 8.6
    Retrac, – Logan 5, Worcester 8
    TJ – Logan 15
    Tom – Logan 3.2, Providence 5.1
    Hadi – Logan 8.2, Providence 11.4
    JimmyJames – Logan 5.7, Providence 8.1
    Scorpius – Logan 9.3, Providence 9.9
    Shotime – Logan 5, Providence 9
    Rainshine – Logan 8.5, Providence 11.3
    Nick – Logan 9, Providence 13, Worcester 6
    Alisonarod – Logan 6.2, Providence 10.8, Worcester 7.5

      2. I said earlier, 8 inches for JP, but since viewing the satellite
        loop, I am afraid to make any predicitions.

        Perhaps later. 😀

  63. While we wait, I am frozen ….. so, a little weather from the southern hemisphere to warm things up …..

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05P/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif

    Freda, hurricane/cyclone/typhoon ….. A few hundred miles northeast of Australia

    In Australia, in the center of the continent, at the tropic of capricorn, is Alice Springs. They have an arid, desert type climate for the most part.

    At midnight, it is 79F, but with a dewpoint of 36F. Their avg high is around 100F, thats what they’ve been and are forecast to be around the next few days.

  64. TK (Tim Kelley) 🙂

    Station 9B6, Sewel Ridge, Central Gulf of ME, ETA FOUS —> 1.8″ H20, Sustained wind 49 kts from NE 1am Sunday. Possible B word Downeast ME

    1. HAHAHAHAHA..

      TK = Topkatt (old CB handle from the radio days).

      Topkatt88 became an online name for several sites I’d use for writing or playing games, including the WBZ blog. The 88 came from a shortened version of my old CB call sign (KATT-8888).

        1. Well I have met 3 bloggers in person so they can at least vouch for the fact I’m not a computer or robot. 😛

  66. I think the baton has been passed between lows. Right over the Chessapeak looks to be filling in with some heavy snows just NW of DC

  68. I have a question for my fellow bloggers. What total precip panel is best to use before a storm 24? 36? 48? . The nam and the gfs have .5-.7 total precip. How accurate are these panels.

    1. I usually look at depending on what the length of the storm is. So for this one the 24 hour panel is probably good to look at, since it should last a little over 12. That is just my take.

  70. TK that is why I love your forecasts, you stay the course. You don’t get too high and too low with each computer run. You use your knowledge and your gut. I am sticking with my totals from yesterday morning:
    The outer cape will get a slushy inch then rain. South shore/RI and outer cape will get 3-5 inches except right along the immediate coast. Could be one or two 6 inch amounts. Logan will get 2 inches but parts of Boston will get 4 inches. North and West of 495 and Rte 2 will get 1-2 inches.
    **My Logan prediction from yesterday might be an inch low.

      1. I did put it in early this morning it may have got missed. I went with 3.4 Logan and 5.5 Providence…Thanks

  71. The reason why I think they will be this low is I think the majority of the energy is going to be too far offshore. The parent low will also be transferring its energy to the coastal low. We may get caught in no man’s land…

    1. Ok, I misread your comment. I will put you down for Logan at 2 inches.

      Tjammer, got yours too.

      Here are the final predictions, please let me know if I missed you or recorded it wrong:

      Charlie – Logan 4.4
      Lisa – Logan 7.6
      Matt Souza – Logan 2
      North – Logan 3.7, Providence 6.7
      Keith – Logan 4.3, Providence 6.9
      Merlin – Logan 8, Providence 11
      Vicki – Logan 2.9, Providence 8.4
      Sue – Logan 5.1, Providence 8.6
      Retrac, – Logan 5, Worcester 8
      TJ – Logan 15
      Tom – Logan 3.2, Providence 5.1
      Hadi – Logan 8.2, Providence 11.4
      JimmyJames – Logan 5.7, Providence 8.1
      Scorpius – Logan 9.3, Providence 9.9
      Shotime – Logan 5, Providence 9
      Rainshine – Logan 8.5, Providence 11.3
      Nick – Logan 9, Providence 13, Worcester 6
      Alisonarod – Logan 6.2, Providence 10.8, Worcester 7.5
      Acemaster – Logan 2.1, Providence 6.1
      Longshot – Logan 6.1, Providence 8.4
      TK – Logan 4.7, Providence 7.4
      Mikeymac – Logan 8.4, Providence 10.3, Worcester 7.2
      Tjammer – Logan 7.2, Providence 9.4, Worcester 8.1
      Haterain – Logan 2

      1. Now for the averages for all of our predictions:

        Logan 5.8, Providence 9.0 and Worcester 7.4

        That would be funny if those end up being right! We would be the new precipitation forecast tool. :).

    2. Check out a radar in the northern mid-atlantic (NJ, SE Pennsylvania, DC area) and I think it will alleviate the idea of getting caught in no man’s land. I had the same concern a few hrs ago, but thats quickly disappearing.

  73. 34F/28F……. temp/dewpoint in Marshfield. Deep sigh !!!

    34F/25F at Boston Harbor buoy. Wind direction is 010 degrees.

  74. It is filling in, but I think that slides towards the Cape and southshore. Those areas will get a moderate storm. I am partial to the north of Boston where I am. When I say no man’s land I am talking Boston. I think they will be to far north. With all that said no one will be happier than me if I am wrong.

    2. I here you. When I was growing up in Lowell, the biggest worry usually was being too far north during true snow events and now living in Marshfield for 11 years, I sometimes forget that……..as down this way, its the rain/snow line thats the biggest worry.

        1. I am originally from Wakefield, MA and growing up as a kid I remember thinking I wished I lived outside 495 because they always get the snow. As I am finding out it is “not always”. I also didn’t get all the snow in the last storm. I got about 3 inches, I missed 10 inches by about 6 miles.

        2. oh ok, I was at Best Buy in Salem NH last night…and was surprised by how little snow was up there (for some reason I thought you got hit a little more by last storm)

          1. oops i was typing my last email and, simultaneously, you answered my question re: amount of your snow up there 🙂

          2. Mark it was amazing Salem was 38 and rain and the next town north Windham was 32 and snow. I have never seen the rain/snow line so dramatic. We have a 5 mile difference between 10 inches of snow and 2 inches of snow. Unfortunately, I was on the 2 side….

            1. it’s funny…i’ve been in MA all my life…and i used to LOVE the snow (the more the better), but nowadays i’ll settle for more moderate snow events…i’m a little bit over the crippling blizzards and what they often entail (such as power outages); but i still get a little excited about potentially big storms, and it’s really fun to watch how enthusiastic folks here can be here about these events

  76. The coastal low is developing and going to be moving up the coast. This could end up being Phialdelphia’s first measurable snowfall of the season.

  77. Uh oh, another Mark on this blog now? Mark from CT here. Looks like one of us is going to need change our user names.

    I am still up in upstate Ny, now at my mom’s outside Albany. Snowing moderately here with about an inch on the ground and expecting 4-6″ (far more than I thought we would get out of this thing up here)

    North, If its not too late to guess, I’ll go with 5.5″ in both Boston and Worcester and 7.5″ in providence.

  78. NWS 11am update:

    JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR CAPE
    COD/NANTUCKET FOR TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE BOMBING 24 MB IN ABOUT 12
    HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. EVEN A LOW
    PROBABILITY THAT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER-CAPE/NANTUCKET TOUCH HIGH
    WIND WARNING CRITERIA…BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AT THIS
    POINT.

  79. I know its not wise to always play the radar game, but I will anyway….

    There seems to be a solid northeast movement to the precip on the radar, across much of the northeast. It does not appear the echoes are sliding east northeast.

    2. Tom, I actually think it is wise to play the radar game. That shows you what the storm is actually doing compared to the models which are potential. Yes, there are many factors that you can’t see in the radar but that is actual information. Hopefully the trend continues…

    2. Oh yes, they are living in the world of perfection where temperature of the day has to be accurate to the tenth place for every town… Lol

      1. Too bad their minds do not work as well as they expect the forecast to. I went there yesterday and left ASAP. Hadn’t been there in ages and know why

    3. I checked it out yesterday for the first time in a long time and probably will not again for a long time. There are a few people there that I wish were here but the rest of it is insults.

      1. I pop on occasionally to respond to Barry’s blogs, or sometimes Joe’s, Mel’s, Todd’s. I stay in touch with Barry via email generally.

        1. i have talked to Barry and Todd before. todd actually was up in lowell durring one the the band compitions. He was with the van .

          1. Both Barry & Todd are very nice in person. Of course Barry I have known for years. I have talked to Todd at a couple weather conferences and also ran into him at the lake in Wakefield last March as they were about to do a live shot.

  82. Looks like it is a warning. I am still not in that area. I am in the advisory area but only one mile from the watch. It is funny how that works…

    1. Yes, I should have not been so lazy as both winter storm watches and warnings abbreviate to the same thing. LOL !

  83. It is too bad this storm is so progressive because it has a ton of potential. Is anyone out their seeing any flakes yet?

    1. nothing yet H.R.

      thought I’d get clipped by the eastern end of that tongue that just swung through but nothing. Our stuff is off L.I. right now.

  85. It looks like the coast of Maine is in for a big one. They got hammered in the last storm as well. I have a place just south of OOB, ME and we got a foot in the last one. They could be looking at 8 inches in this one and even more Downeast.

  86. A whole lot of radar echoes passing overhead with a whole lot of nothing falling to the ground. Sun dimly visible here. But this is no surprise. Don’t expect any steady snow in eastern MA until after sunset.

  87. The air appears to be too dry but that should help moisten the column for snow to start falling. Looks like a good burst of snow happening around the NYC area.

    1. I love that phrase: “moisten the column” … I picture walking around the support in my basement with a spray bottle of water…

  89. even though the radar is showing snow comming down its going to take a while for it to start to fall . do to the cold dry air.

  91. I have an issue with NWS’s zone forecast again (for my area, NW of Boston). They are carrying “a chance of snow showers” with accumulation around 1 inch during the daylight hours today. The point forecast actually has daytime accumulations of 1 to 2 inches through sunset. I don’t see this happening.

  92. Does anyone know of a good map or something else that can show where pressure falls are happening? I am trying to find out if the storm is deepening and where.

  93. Up to 200+ comments and the storm hasn’t started!! I think we are eager as been nearly 2 years.

    Btw remember winter is only 9 days old 🙂

  94. Looking out my window to the NW and N I can see in the clouds that enhanced band that just passed by on radar (not reaching the ground). It looks like a mid level roll cloud (though not too defined) moving northward.

  96. Perfect spot for us. I was just going To mention that discussion from grey. They are waiting on euro. That office is outstanding, I wish Taunton was that good.

  105. 1 pm obs from NJ ….

    Morristown and Sussex : Heavy Snow, 1/4 mile visibility

    Caldwell and Somerville : Moderate Snow, 1/2 mile visibility

  108. We just had a burst of light snow pellets here, a.k.a. GRAUPEL! … Love listening to and watching that stuff bounce off things.

  109. In 28 minutes, Meriden, CT went from cloudy with 10 miles of visibility to light snow in 0.75 miles. Both radar and obs show it goes from nothing to fairly steady quickly.

  110. Don’t get fooled by the heavy looking radar echoes in Long Island Sound. Examine the loop and you can see very little movement on this area, which is actually an area of graupel/sleet being along a mix zone picked up by the radar. 🙂

  111. I’ll substitute for Charlie:

    Heavy rain here, clearing line to the south, tropical cumulus building on the horizon, high humidity and thunderstorms coming soon. Temp 75, dewpoint 70. Winter’s over! 🙂

    KIDDING Charlie if you see this. Always enjoy your input to the blog!

  112. Is it snowing in NH or maine closer to MA border yet? My bro is driving up to Maine now and just want to make sure he doesn’t have any issues.

  113. So the six flakes in uxbridge were it?? Son at girls in new hope RI. Down on southern coast I believe. Just started to spit snow an hour ago. 6 in forecasted

  114. Radar very impressive. Totals over 6 inches+ from Boston south still seems very likely. Look for steady precip to commence shortly after 4 pm.

    1. Planned my few errands nicely. All in for the day/night before 4PM. 🙂 Usually I’m out on a Saturday night but it looks like tonight’s a stay-at-home night. Maybe I’ll listen to the Trans-Siberian Orchestra’s Christmas Trilogy. It’s still Christmastime, after all. 🙂

      1. TK, that sounds like a wonderful way to spend a snowy Saturday evening! Just got home from finishing my errands, too. Plan to spend the evening finishing up “Gone Girl” on my Kindle. What a crazy story!

  115. Very happy to see winter finally appearing. Came back from Norwich, Vermont, where the recent storm dropped about 5 inches. This was a disappointing number, but a very beautiful scene on my drive back yesterday. It is snowing again in Norwich today, and several inches are forecast. I do not expect much out of this progressive storm system in the Boston area. Perhaps 4 inches, but some parts of the south shore, especially away from the coast, may get 8. Cannot complain, as at least it is mostly snow falling and not rain. Also, we are finally back to seasonable temperatures, which should do something to lower the ocean temperature, particularly with some teens expected in the coming days. This in turn may help with future nor’easters.

    1. Not sure if I buy into that entirely with the current temperature profile. Very few coastal towns and cities are reporting sub-freezing temperatures. Temps will go down, but it may take awhile, and this will likely lessen the totals for the coastline where there will be bursts of heavy snow, mix, and for some, rain. North and west of Boston I see mostly a light snow event (2-4 inches) with little heavy precipitation.

      1. Josh. Have a look at the radar. 2-4 will be crushed by 10 pm tonight at the latest even in coastal locales.

  117. Wonder if there could be power issues in southeast Mass perhaps 2 to say 5 miles west of the coastline. How much wet snow does it take to start affecting power lines ?

    1. One inch in Franingham. Fair warning if anyone loses power I’m moving in until its restored. We are in hopkinton on way home and I just saw a snowflake

    1. The northward movement may also be high cloud tops from new development being pushed left of the mean wind. Always have to watch for that. It may not be moving as northward as it looks by the clouds.

      1. Ha ha. TK you crack me up doing everything you can to avoid rationalizing the possibility of higher snowfall totals

      2. Is it me – correct me if I am wrong? It looks like according to the satellite that a majority of the storm will miss us??? At this point, most clouds moving east. Unless there comes a change.

  121. Brett Anderson Tweet.

    @BrettAWX: Starting to think that Boston, MA will get hit pretty hard this evening with significant snowfall rates.

  126. Tweet from NWS

    @NWSBoston: New WSW issued. Winter Storm Warning extended westward. New expected snowfall map and probability maps coming soon. Upping snowfall totals.

  127. I just noticed those warnings were expanded west. 4-8 inches expected in the warning areas but I would not be surprised if a few spots see more than 8 inches.
    Level 2 snow event for most of SNE the exception The Cape and Islands.

  132. From Storm Prediction Center
    0122 PM CST SAT DEC 29 2012

    AREAS AFFECTED…PARTS OF LONG ISLAND THRU MUCH OF SRN NEW ENGLAND

    CONCERNING…HEAVY SNOW

    VALID 291922Z – 292315Z

    SUMMARY…HEAVY SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR APPEAR
    INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY 23-00Z…AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
    02-03Z…AND PERHAPS BEYOND.

    DISCUSSION…STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS WELL UNDERWAY…WITH DEEPENING
    OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST
    ON THE ORDER OF 2-3 MB PER HOUR SINCE MID MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE
    INDICATES THAT RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
    THE EVENING HOURS…AND BEYOND…AS IT MIGRATES INTO AREAS SOUTH AND
    EAST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY 00-03Z. THIS IS EXPECTED
    TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
    AND INTENSIFYING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MID
    ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND NEW ENGLAND…WHERE THERMODYNAMIC
    PROFILES ARE GENERALLY BELOW FREEZING AND SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. EVEN
    ACROSS MUCH OF LONG ISLAND…WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN
    THE MID 30S…AS THE LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST…COLD
    ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN A CHANGEOVER OF RAIN TO SNOW DURING THE
    21-00Z TIME FRAME.

    HEAVIEST SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
    EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT THROUGH MUCH OF RHODE ISLAND AND
    A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS…INCLUDING THE
    BOSTON METROPOLITAN AREA…BY AROUND 00Z. THIS SHOULD OCCUR IN
    CONJUNCTION WITH THE EVOLUTION OF DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
    NEWLY FORMING AND DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER…AS LIFT
    INTENSIFIES IN THE LAYER WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
    DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. SUPPORTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER ON
    THE ORDER OF .5 TO .75 INCHES…MAXIMUM SNOW RATES PROBABLY WILL
    EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR…PERHAPS APPROACHING 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
    SHORTER-LIVED CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BURSTS.

  133. Got a response from NWS and its below

    Hello Hadi,VERY doubtfull any blizzard warning being issued. Snow will be a heavy wet snow which will cut down on the blowing and drifting. Usually you need to have a more fluffy snow and stronger winds to create the very low visibilities need to reach blizzard conditions. That being said, this will be a high water content snow so expect at least some branches coming down with a possability of some scattered power outages. Also, this being a heavy wet snow people should take it easy when it comes to shoveling.

    2. No surprise.

      Pleased to see them answer you so quickly. Outside of wording issues with forecasts sometimes, I think our NWS is excellent.

  134. Boston has declared a Snow Emergency/Parking Ban: There WILL be a snow emergency/parking ban in effect at 9:00pm for the 12/29 storm due to expected freezing temps.

  135. Looking at the radar, its such a small storm, it’s so hard to believe that it’s gonna drop close to a foot in some places…

  137. Thats good piece of advice to take it easy when shoveling because I could tell you I felt it after shoveling 4 inches of snow which felt like cement on Thursday morning.
    Wet snow good for making a snowman bad for your back when shoveling.

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