The Week Ahead

167 Comments

5:40PM

Quiet & cold will be 2 words that aptly describe the weather  in southern New England for the week about to commence. A general west northwest flow will dominate around the base of a mean trough in eastern Canada. There is some Arctic cold up there in Canada. Though it does not look like we’re in for a direct blow, full-force, of this kind of air, there will be small pieces grabbed by passing disturbances and pulled into the region, resulting in the colder week overall. Peak cold shots should come at midweek and again reinforced over the weekend.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-20. Wind  NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy. Lows 25-30. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY – NEW YEAR’S DAY: Partly cloudy early then sunny. Highs 33-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 9. High 22.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 26.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Low 18. High 34.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 25.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 12. High 32.

167 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. TK, thanks. I feel like the wind at Foxboro must be 30+ mph at times. They are missing FGs, passes, etc. Every time the ball is in the air it’s floating.

  2. Thanks TK. I posted a question on previous blog I was hoping you can answer

    OS. I found this post from you a year ago today

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 30 2011, 7:04 am EST
    Fri, 30 Dec 2011 07:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 34.0 °F (1.1 °C)
    Wind: Calm
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1017.9 mb
    Water Temperature: 46.4 °F (8.0 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.4 m (1.31 ft)
    Dominant Period: 11 sec
    Reply
    Vicki says:
    December 30, 2011 at 10:12 AM
    46 – balmy…………..for those of us NOT taking the dip Thanks OS

      1. The air temp was a whole lot warmer last year. I believe it hit 60 or near New Year’s Day. I know I sat on the deck all day

    3. I’m not sure what the wind direction was down there but the low pressure area tucked a little closer in to the South Coast may have had something to do with that as well.

  3. Would be nice to be the number 2 seed.

    Noticed that Logan is now down to -6.98 below normal for precip for the year. It has been a wet month with over 5.5 inches of precip at both Boston and Providence.

  4. Well, the storm train of this week really laid down some good snowpack across the Northeast. Nice to see:

    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg

    We ended up with 11″ in Coventry, CT from yesterday’s storm, most of it falling in 6 hours.

    Looking on the horizon, not much brewing on the storm front until perhaps the Jan 10-12 period. Cold and dry week upcoming followed by a potential warmup next week if the long range Euro is correct.

    1. Look at the white mtns. shadow effect on the northeast kingdom of Vermont. Oh, how I remember … there’d be snow in Concord, NH and Burlington, VT and it would be partly cloudy in Lyndonville.

      1. Tom, I noticed that as well. There was a major shadow effect going on there with the midweek storm. NWS Albany and Binghamton both mentioned concern for that same thing happening west of the Catskills and green mountains/ berkshires but it never materialized in upstate NY. White mountains are significantly higher though so the effect there is clearly much greater.

    3. I heard it on BZ during a commercial. I thought game was on faux which would have explained it but now I have no idea. Either way it got the jackpot.

  7. Just in case anyone missed it at the end of the last blog, Providence ended up at 7.6. Mark edged out TK, Mark had 7.5 and TK had 7.4. Nice job guys!

  8. Hey TK, not to beat a dead horse regarding the rain/snow line fiasco for Boston and the North Shore, but if we had a -NAO with blocking would the storm acted differently and the rain/snow line held back from the coastline?

    It is somewhat disheartening to have good snow totals all surrounding the city of Boston and yet water in your basement. Logan received almost 3/4 inch rains. 🙁

      1. North, the basement has always had issues but moreso with the wet month of late. The water is restricted to one area and will go down soon. Thanks for your concern. 🙂

        1. I got it in March 2010 twice and am paranoid about it now every time it rains, especially since it is partially finished. I did have some water the past three storms in the bottom of the sump pump hole. Hope it drys out for 7-10 days now to give the ground a break.

    2. It probably would have been a colder solution but it may have pushed that storm far enough south that it was a light event or even a miss.

      1. I didn’t measure myself, but according to a wx spotter Dorchester got 3.8″…yes just about 4″. The snow I shoveled this morning didn’t seem like that much though…more like the 2.6″ at Logan. Dorchester is the biggest section of the city so any amounts will likely be highly varied depending on location.

  9. Today’s CPC outlook has well above normal temps and precip through mid-January so whatever snow is on the ground will not be added anytime soon.

    There are hints of a pattern change for late January. I am wondering if the “end” of the upcoming 3 months will be the cold/stormy ones? Sound familiar??

    1. Well above precip next two weeks? Not buying that. we have no storm threats this week and not much in the long range until perhaps the second half of next week.

      Thus is not the pattern of last year – we’ll have our share of snow threats second half of January and February.

        1. Yes, you are correct on that. MLK weekends usually have some kind of event. Other than this upcoming week I believe the CPC is actually on target in both temps and precip.

  10. OK, here’s the earlier AccuWeather Trivia Quiz and answer.

    Boston’s greatest snow depth on record occurred on:

    A. February 27, 1969
    B. February 7, 1978
    C. January 10, 1996
    D. April 1, 1997

    Correct answer is C. (I believe the recording at Logan was in excess of 30″.)

      1. Actually TK, the 1960’s had above normal snowfall each winter in Boston with the exception of 1962-63 = 30.9″. In fact the above mormal snows continued into 1970-71 (57.3″) and 1971-72 (47.5″).

          1. The 1980s was not a great snow decade but there were some isolated good storms in there. I still think in terms of total snow, the 1990s were Boston’s snowiest. The 1960s certainly holds the record for the most snowy winters in terms of average.

          2. I have pics of my husband shoveling up onto the mounds on the side of our driveway at some point in 1980s and remember big storms in 1984 and an April 29 foot in 1987. Our kids were all born in the 80s and the videos show lots of snow but it could easily have been single storms.

            1. I refer that one on April 29th too. We lived in Milton and it changed to snow at the end and we got only 2 inches. Sund familiar?

  12. TK not surprising but I found your comment about the 90s very interesting. I sure remember lots of snow. It’s when we had to drive our daughter to Ashland to clean stalls and ride her pony daily. We loved it but there were winters the pony was stuck in for days with too much snow. Anyway. I did some searches and am still doing the, but came across two interesting links. Well I thought they were interesting.

    http://forgottennewengland.com/2012/06/24/climate-change-is-massachusetts-getting-warmer-and-wetter/

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/02/2001-2010-was-the-snowiest-decade-on-record/

    Source for first was blue hill obs so I was comfortable with that. Not sure about second but included it nonetheless

        1. Yes the first site is good data. The 2nd one seems so but I believe it’s just someone’s blog so you never know.

            1. 100% agree. Any quack can put up a site and claim to be an expert. Not that I’m referring to anyone specifically. 😉

    2. Thanks Vicki! Great Article. Can’t get over the change in Lowell Cemetery photo comparision. Truly amazing!!!

  15. Whew wind really picking up. Hadi I tried to watch whole game but stayed up too late last night watching the storm. Sorry :(. Good luck

  16. I was reading some of the comments from TK’s previous post. Very interesting. TK does a fantastic job explaining to us novices in largely jargon-free terms the weather, its underlying factors, and what we should be looking for. I agree with TK in part with his assessment of climate change, at least as far as the cyclical nature of ocean temperatures. I also agree with TK that it is hard to prove or disprove the human influence on climate change. This said, and my caveat here is that I am not a meteorological expert, for the past decade or so, I have seen credible data from a variety of sources on trends in ocean temperatures which specifically point to global warming. And I must disagree with TK on one thing he said in response to Old Salty (I think it was OS, if not, my apologies). That is this: TK seems to suggest that the current ocean temperature readings being observed are not outliers. I believe they are. In fact, I’ll go out on a limb and say that the ocean temperature differential (from a statistically determined norm) we’re observing this year is unprecedented, at least in my lifetime. In the past 50 years was there a December 28th during which the ocean temperature was this high? I have not seen evidence of that. Perhaps there is, and then I would be completely wrong.

    Ocean temperatures do make a difference during a nor’easter. One of the reasons why coastal SNE generally does not get snowstorms in November, even when the High and Low are positioned just right, is the ocean temperature. Yesterday, at the height of the storm, it felt very much like a late November or March nor’easter, not a late December one.

    1. One thing I do know is that the waters in the summertime when I go to the beach don’t seem any warmer than they did when I was younger. So if there is a difference perhaps at least in our part of the world it’s showing itself more noticeably in the winter months… ??? Something to think about.

      1. In the past we would be lucky in the 32 years we’ve been taking the kids to the beach for summer to have an occasionally warm ocean where you could stay in the ocean all day. Now they are – for the most part – in the water all day. Not scientific. I know but what we have observed.

        As you know I agree totally with Joshua. I wonder if we are too busy looking at data and expecting everything to change at one time to see that it is changing. Whether it is entirely cyclical, is yet to be determined. I repeat that signs are there that our pollution of our planet is taking a toll. I’m afraid, as is typical of human nature, we will keep trying to prove it one way or the other before we realize its too late. Kind of like when you tell everyone on the blog to step away from the models and use their meteorological knowledge.

  20. hay skins your in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 . good luck over there but i hope the patriots go 2 years in a row and actually win the big game

  21. TK, how much stock should we put in the EURO’s trend of mild weather in the long term ( kicking in about a week from today, Mon. 1/7 ) ?

  22. Ah ha !!

    Should have read the finer print a lot sooner.

    Buoy 44011 which SHOULD be 180 nautical miles east of Hyannis broke away on 9/8/12. It is transmitting accurate data, from its drifting location, which now is in the middle of the central Atlantic ocean, about halfway btwn US east coast and Europe.

    1. TJ my husband talked to a friend in Kansas on Christmas Day and he said they are 12 feet below normal. I don’t know how accurate that is. I do know his brother flies medical helicopters and also crop dusts so suspect he has some knowledge. The number boggled my mind.

    2. Google current palmer drought index.

      Boy, the Plains are still parched. If they dont get some precip over the next couple of months, I can only imagine the early spring temps in those regions once the late February and early March stronger sun returns.

    1. It sure looks that way. Arctic oscillation forecast to go positive bigtime, while PNA gets back towards neutral from its current positive phase.

  25. Harvey Tweeted about above average temps lasting for a while :(. Maybe this was our only storm of the winter ?

    2. Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB
      …strong signs that the above average temperature pattern will return AFTER this week, and possibly last a while

  27. Boring weather this week with it being cold and dry. Then it looks like a warmup takes places. Hopefully the mild weather regime when it gets going doesn’t lock in for the rest of winter.

    1. We typically have a “January Thaw” every Winter, so it doesn’t necessarily mean it will lock in. On the other hand, the way things have been going, Perhaps
      Winter only lasts 2 weeks or so this year???? 😀 😀

      Wouldn’t that be something.

  28. I just want to echo some sentiments posted previously by one or more here.

    Tracking and Now-casting this latest storm was made so much more enjoyable due
    to the contributions here by all. We had up-to-the-second information from all over.
    We were watching that coastal front advance in REAL time!

    Thank you all and most especially, thank you TK for providing this most unique forum! 😀 😀 😀

    1. Thank you Vicki. It was indeed.

      I wish we could have gone during the snow. We had a corner table
      with a beautiful view. It just would have been so nice to see the falling snow
      while we dined. 😀

      1. How lovely. Were you in Boston? As it turned out you could have easily gone Saturday but it could have just as easily gone the other way. Nothing like the city in snow

        We are going to spend an overnight in Harvard square in a couple of weeks and I can’t wait to just walk around day and night and then watch all of the hustle and bustle from the window I’m hoping for even a small amount of flakes falling.

        1. Actually,

          We ate at a restaurant in Norwood, called One Bistro (Rt 1 South). It is very nice and the food is out of this world. I highly recommend it to anyone looking to try something new. Warning: It is a little pricey.

            1. I know all of those roads very well.
              The road that goes by the old Sunshine Dairy (is that correct?) out to rt. 27
              all the way to rt. 1? Or Rt. 27 to 109
              and then through Westwood to Norwood and out to rt. 1?
              😀

              1. One of my daughters first horse shows was at sunshine dairy. She started riding at glean Maura in Ashland and the sister of the woman who owned GM owned sunshine.

                And yes that is the route

  31. Happy New Year to all. May 2013 be a good year for everyone.

    I am very happy with the current weather. Yesterday was a gem, with the winter landscape and some real cold. If only we could have more days like yesterday. I am going to go against the grain, however, on long-term prognostications. The Euro does look bad, especially 10 days from now. Re-establishment of the SE ridge would not be a good sign. But, we all know how uncertain long-range forecasts are. I remember believing the Euro back on December 20th/21st when the model projected a warm rain event for Boston for the 29th/30th, followed by relatively mild temperatures. That proved wrong. I was wrong for believing it. Let’s wait and see what the models have to say in a couple of days.

      1. I’m concerned, too. But, let’s give the models some time to change, which they might. I would be sorely disappointed to see an extended January thaw after a brief cameo appearance winter.

  32. I am going to be curious to see exactly how long that warm air hangs for. I’m sticking to my call for cold and snowy and finishing above. It’s way, way early to get a bad feeling on this winter when its only two weeks into it.

    1. It may be too early to make a judgement based on the facts, results and data to date.

      However, how does one regulate feelings? If one has a bad feeling, they
      have a bad feeling. Nothing wrong with that. And, I still have a bad feeling. 😀

    2. I tend to go on gut feelings a lot. But I am going to agree with you, John. I can’t see this as being the only snowstorm. It’s way too early to tell. Also, I think (not sure about this one) that as long as we hold on to some snowcover it cools the air and less likely to get rain.

  33. My Office let us out at 2PM for New Year’s Eve. Nice.
    I’m still here finishing up, but will be leaving shortly! 😀 😀 😀

  34. From wxrisk.com

    PERHAPS…. All Hope is NOT lost…PERHAPS…

    What you are looking at is the new week 3 and week 4 upper level — 500 MB — Forecast maps for how the overall pattern is going to shape up in the second half of January. This is significantly different from what the CFS model was showing yesterday…. so it should be taken with the huge grain of salt here. But if we can see the same sort of thing for the next few runs of the CFS… then it ** MIGHT *** mean that the pattern is going to shift again in the middle of January.

    MAYBE…

    http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/379413_464191280294802_491751928_n.jpg

    I wonder if they meant GFS ???? Lol 😀 😀

  35. Happy New Year everyone. See you all back again next winter since ol’ man winter won’t make a return for quite a while.

  38. Poll for fun anybody. How many more snow events this winter. The event would need to cover most areas. Does not matter on size of storm. I guess seven.

      1. Sorry posted before I was finished. I don’t really think of a wide spread dusting as a snow event. Maybe others do as that’s just my opinion.

  40. My New Years resolution is to take the time to donate blood more often this year. I never knew how much of a positive impact this has on so many until recently. If you can please do the same at some point in the new year.

    1. Good for you Coastal! I work for Rockland Trust and we have the Childrens Hospital Blood Mobile at various locations during the year. I finally got the courage to donate this year and now I will never stop. Such a great thing to do!

  42. Sue that’s great. Seeing how there my employer I can tell you so much how that is appreciated. And also my own son deals with them, so thanks.

    1. John….my son had a transfusion at Childrens at 7 weeks old and I have always wanted to give back. So glad I finally did it.

      1. It’s a great place. There putting up a new building now to open this spring. Also they just started the main lobby major renovation. My son sees the cardiology dept.

        1. I hope they don’t get rid of the fish tank in the lobby! That is what amused my older son when his little brother was there!

          1. Not sure on that, I’ll let you know Wednesday. What is going is that huge staircase. And a total relocation of the main entry. This is a huge project. It’s going to be unbelievable when done.

    2. I know it used to be that once you were a patient at children’s you were always a patient. My son had minor surgery there decades ago. My grandson did last spring. One criteria I had and my girls had when selecting pediatricians was they refer to or are on staff of children’s. Although MGH has an exceptional pediatric division as well.

      We have all donated blood through the years but not as often as we should. It’s a great resolution Coastal

            1. Agree. My youngest was suspected of Cystic fibrosis and went through extensive testing at children’s. They were phenomenal. All three grandkids have had gastro problems. Their doc is best in practice and out of MGH. His fellowship was at children’s. His MD and residency at Johns Hopkins. I think you are right that it varies by specialty. We are incredibly lucky to have some of the best hospitals in the world in our back yard

              And on a more uplifting note. I sat outside for a while just enjoying the clear air and the sight of snow blanketing everything. What a wonderful New Years Eve

  44. Looking at both 12 z and 18z GFS and it does not look good the next two weeks. I would say the chance of any snow is near zero and the temps don’t look much better either.

    1. Do you think that warm up will hold up. I believe after tomorrow its in the 20s for the rest of the week. I believe that’s what I saw at lunchtime.

    1. So that’s good. The warmth won’t be here that long as was advertised by many here, and Harvey tweeted long warmth as well according to a post here last night, is that what your saying.

  46. My bet is that the warmth will last for awhile like Harvey says, but the cold and snow will return late January when the thaw usually occurs…the reverse. Also rainfall will accompany the warmth at times as well.

    1. Happy new year Philip. I also agree on the cold and snow returning, I think with a vengeance. This winter can’t even be defined as of now because it just started.

  47. Another good New Years resolution I should make is to stop dating as much as I do and spend more time with my wife.

  49. Happy New year. Wishing you all a year of health, happiness, and wondrous weather events

    Thank you TK for giving us a special place to play!!

  51. happy new years everyone. i watched a firework display at wachusett after a good amount of skiing. most i have done since i injured my self last season and with no brace. . but it was icy and my ankle did start to bother me half way through the night. my form was awful. 🙁 my new years resolution is to get my ski form back and to relax and not stress about every little thing.

  53. Since the weather is quiet and since I find some of your answers interesting and at times knowledgable, now the question is and I have the exact numbers but about 1.55 million people move to the dallas Fort Worth area per decade and it shows no signs of slowing down for the next decade or 2, now if I were to send my kids to private schools in Texas, they r telling me private schools r better than most public schools in the country? And from what I can tell they r very nice schools from the outside( most are brand new or built in last 20 yrs, any constructive input is wanted, happy new year!!

  54. Good morning and Happy New Year to all Woodshill bloggers! A special thanks to TK for his tireless efforts.

    December came in above normal for temps and 3″ below normal for snow. I think the month did come in above normal for total wet weather though.

    And a TV weather note: WBZ forecasts the low temps for Weds, Thurs & Fri are 9, 6 & 13 respectively. More moderate temps next week. I am not great at models but I don’t know if we’ll see any more snow until 3rd week of Jan.

    1. Thanks Hadi. I think this was representative of the whole country during December and probably offsets the Asia cold to make 2012 the warmest year since records began.

  56. Interesting that of the 4 major climo cities in SNE 3 of the 4 came in with above average snowfall in Dec. Logan was the only one below average. Thanks Ocean:)

  57. CO2 data from Mauna Loa ( data from NOAA Earth System Research Lab )

    Week of Dec. 23, 2012 : 394.78 ppm

    From 1 yr ago, same wk : 392.07 ppm

    From 10 yrs ago, same wk : 374.28 ppm

    Headed for 400+ ppm probably before it starts to dip in mid to late Spring when all the trees and vegetation come to life again.

  58. Happy and Healthy New Year to everyone!

    And thanks, TK, for giving us a great blog and a place to talk and learn about the weather! It’s very special to me – because out of all my friends and family, I am the only one who has such an interest in the weather. But they appreciate my interest in the weather, as they are always asking me what the weather will be! 🙂

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