Bitter Winds

151 Comments

12:28AM

With many focusing on whether or not we’ll have a snowstorm late Friday, it should not be lost that we’re in the middle of a very cold outbreak that will continue through early Friday. One disturbance is moving south of the region during the next 24 hours then blowing up a storm that will remain well offshore. A second disturbance will come along late Friday through early Saturday but should be far enough south of the region to limit the snowfall. Another shot of cold air is expected through the end of the weekend, but not as cold as what is currently occurring. A period of moderating temperatures is still expected next week for the final days of January.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 0. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near 0.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-5 inland, 5-10 coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 20-25. Wind N to NE 5-10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing, accumulating from a coating to 5 inches from northwest of Boston to Cape Cod and the Islands. Lows 15-20. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Highs 25-30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 8. High 27.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Low 30. High 40.

151 thoughts on “Bitter Winds”

  3. 5 am obs ….

    Whitefield, NH : -25F, St. Johnsbury, VT : -21F, Montpelier, VT : -19F

    Colder start this Morning, however comparatively, Mt. Washington is 7F less cold this morning than at this time yesterday morning.

    Boston Harbor Buoy has a new measurement on it this morning ….. Ice accretion, at nearly half an inch per hour. I’ll bet, its even 9F sixteen miles offshore.

  4. Both EURO and GFS get 850 mb temps to around +6C middle of next week for a quick shot of mildness.

    Long term cold returning, yes……. I do think this has to be the coldest of the winter because by Feb. 1, the sun reaches 30 degrees above the horizon and is gaining a degree about every 3 to 4 days.

    Long term snow chances : 70% no, 30% yes …… Just going with persistence (70%), while recognizing that there’s always a chance it could. (30%).

  5. Its colder here than in northeastmost Canada. Logan is 5F, while Kimmirut, Nunavat is 14F and its much milder than that in Greenland.

    Have a good day all !

  11. 2-5 inches south coast,cape and islands
    0-2 inches south of the pike including boston.
    north of the pike no accumulation

  14. While I’m in a cynical mood I’ll go ahead and say it.

    Looks like Scott is going to be happy up in Vermont next weekend while we’re basking in the rain.

  15. I hope the frozen water in my garage drainage grate thaws before we get rain or I will get water…my garage slopes toward my house…crappy design I wish I picked up on before moving!!!

  18. I thought at the beginning of the week; by this weekend I would have close to a foot of snow on the ground. Grand total zero. Very frustrating weather. I think this storm sails even further south and northwest of Boston will see nothing and just light coatings south of Boston and the Cape.

  21. I believe all of the computer models that they use today have taken away gut feel and commonsense forecasting. Remember Don Kent? It may be revisionist history but I don’t remember him being wrong often.

    2. Maybe. Remember, there was no 7 or ten day forecast then either and we couldn’t look at models. they had the three day forecast and that was it.

      Nearly everything on this storm has been OTS for days now. IMHO I thought the models had a pretty good handle on this pretty far out.

      Score one for the GFS this time.

  22. And another one bites the dust. Time to waive the white flag. Interested in seeing if Mark has also packed it in on this one. Ugh! So frustrating.

  23. Good morning all.

    I give up! Kiss this one good-bye! 😀

    King Euro is officially OTS, even beyond the NAM and GFS.

    Have Great Day all. I’m going to try to get some work done now.

  24. I take it last night’s northward trend was short lived. Just when I was starting to get excited! What bummer 🙁

  25. Two shots at an alisonarod special and nothing. Just goes to show that 99 out of a 100 times that with a PV in place, there is no shot at a coastal storm that will come close to us to bring heavy snow. Next week as the PV retreats, of course, we get rain. Go figure!

    1. Don’t we still get something in Boston, like a coating or inch, or is that off. Also I thought the cape is still good for a few inches.

  26. Well the GFS shows a soaking rain storm late next week and I gtd it will not go OTS or doing anything different than what the models say.

    1. Of course! This is the season when cold air is in place, storms get shunted OTS and as soon as the cold retreats, we get a rainstorm. There is no in between so far this winter where we get hit with a major snowstorm. If you think about it, there has been lots to talk about this winter with not a good amount of result.

  27. Retrac not very postive on the NAO

    NAO value for forecast hour 000: -28.4096889
    NAO value for forecast hour 024: 19.1886292
    NAO value for forecast hour 048: 24.243145
    NAO value for forecast hour 072: 41.724102
    NAO value for forecast hour 096: -36.7026138
    NAO value for forecast hour 120: -66.2192383
    NAO value for forecast hour 144: -15.4749985
    NAO value for forecast hour 168: -9.5852232
    NAO value for forecast hour 192: -31.7902069
    NAO value for forecast hour 216: 30.8825474
    NAO value for forecast hour 240: 83.6070862
    NAO value for Day 1-5: -3.55319524
    NAO value for Day 6-10: 11.5278416

  28. Not much going on with this latest storm and NWS Boston is not really using a GFS/ECMWF blend as they claim, but trended to the more robust GFS. I see a pretty weak scenario as 500hpa short waves phase into a trof over the great lakes and then to the mid-Atlantic seaboard by early Saturday.
    The Northern and southern branch energy never phase. At the surface
    weak clipper low races eastward with NAM/SREF/ECMWF/ECMWF ENS/GGEM/GGEM ENS all in good agreement of a .05-.15 West to east / north to south. GFS/GEFS is a little more robust with a .10-.30. All told it may be enough for an inch or two of fluffy snow at best Friday night. Probably enough for 1-2” on the south coast and cape. Outside of that area, dusting to an inch at most and that is going with a generous .15-.18 ratio. Cyclogenesis will take place well south and east out over the Gulf Stream. Commonly known as a fish storm. The SREF actually paints a dry air intrusion in SE MA that would limit snowfall to even less than the 1-2” and if that does not happen it is very hard to get high ratios on order of .18-.20, as some have advertised at the coast, as the column does saturate and the warmer, moist ocean air adds moisture content and lowers the ratios to more like .12-.15.

    The real issue right now is the cold. It is colder here than in northern Canada right now check on neighbors who are elderly or sick. It will moderate slightly in the next day or two and more significantly next week

  29. Beautiful morning. Was indeed a tad cold. And it did get much colder than I thought it would this week (another blown prediction from me). First 5 minutes of my run was a challenge. After that it was glorious. Even the city air didn’t seem polluted like it usually does.

    By the way, I saw some mention of the relatively mild temps in Nunavut and Greenland. When it gets really cold here it typically is not as cold up there. Brett Anderson once explained that on accuweather. For the cold to come down from the polar area it needs to `warm up’ close to the pole. We’ll see the reverse happen next week. And, as I mentioned yesterday, parts of Northern Canada (e.g., Labrador, which is really not that far from here; not nearly as far as Nunavut/Ellesmere Island) are quite cold and will remain so with some slight moderation over the coming days.

    Not liking what I’m seeing for next week as that darn SE ridge reasserts itself. Now it looks like we may get 4 days of mild temps and two changes of rain. If there’s something I can’t stand in winter it’s rain. I don’t mind not getting snow. I do mind getting rain and 40s. This said, we need the precip, so I guess I shouldn’t complain.

  30. Are we allowed to remain on the island through the weekend? I was looking forward to some time for relaxation. And do we invited JR (Ch 7) since he was right about back………. well you remember when 😉

  31. I’ll be back on the boards hopefully soon in early february when our next potential snow event arrives. Bye for now 🙂

  32. JMA if you see this what do you think Matt Noyes was looking at that brought him to such an aggressive conclusion?

  33. If you look at Matt Noyes tweets he still has not thrown in the towel. Not sure what he has been looking at lately that no one else can see. He either is going to be a hero or the boy crying wolf. I still think he is one of the best, although this time I think he is wrong.

    1. I also still think we get something in Boston like coating to an inch tops. Parts of the cape maybe 3-5 inches. Going on a strong gut feeling here. I believe this is called a grazing situation, could be completely wrong, time will tell.

    1. Well yah……..we’re all on the island relaxing with Dr Peppers and then it’s off to rainshines for a turkey dinner!

  35. Wow!!! Last 24 hrs almost 700 comments on a possible coating to an inch on cape, imagine how many comments there would be if we really had a snowstorm haha, I still have not experienced a real snowstorm since idk has to be a couple years anyway, wondering that winter has a month left if we will get it, could I go three years?

    1. I’ll take it. If we are in a slow winter cycle for a few years, that works. We will get slammed again at some point… Until then, I enjoy NOT noving snow around, sitting in traffic, and not having to scramble to find people to watch the kids on a snow day. 🙂

      1. Now that it’s almost feb I’m beginning to want winter to go, this cold sucks and with no snow I’d rather it just be warm but that’s me, I’m rooting for spring now!! It’s wont be long folks, I could see the top of the sun at 5:00 pm the other day, haven’t seen that since before thanksgiving

        1. The problem is both r right but we want somebody to be wrong when we all have to compromise and not be stubborn but anyways have a great day, next event next week is rain, I’ll check back later and we should all meet sometime bye bye

    2. Sounds like dallas back in 2000 when we went to Houston for the weekend and I guess it was suppose to snow the next day, they got 6 inches of snow but by the time we got back to dallas a day in a half later we couldn’t find 1 ounce of snow, anywhere haha very weird,

        2. I would say 0 degrees is equivalent to 100 degrees in Texas,, Texas summers r horrible and they r from May 1st- Oct 1st, between that time frame it is 90+ just about everyday, it was terrible, but met alot of people that moved there from all the cities in north and they all would just say I’ll take heat anyday over cold and rain over snow, and then they would say good luck with those winters, it’s different in different ways,

    1. That’s because the storm is still in the middle of the country:) Wait for it to hit the ocean and then get your fan out.

  38. Don Kent didn’t appear wrong too often for these reasons:

    1) Weather was not the top story every day.

    2) He only tried to forecast 3 days.

    3) Snow amounts, rain/snow lines, and storm tracks were not talked about 10 days in advance.

    2. True, indeed. I remember the weather maps where Don or others would literally draw “L’s” and “H’s” and snow would be depicted by lots of asterisks (“****”).

    3. I agree; I guess that is the point I am trying to make. He forecasted 3 days out and never saw what might happen 10 days out. I think we all fall into the trap that we see something a week away and we hang on it even when it disappears. I know that is part of the fun but it also can lead to disappointment. In the Don Kent days we weren’t disappointed because we never saw a storm coming that was never meant to be.

  39. I am beginning to get the feeling that Boston’s record for least snowfall of 9.0″ set in 1936-37 will be challenged for the second year in a row. So far this year Logan only has 7.4″ to date. The +NAO through mid-February is not very encouraging. 🙁

  40. I know we say cold without snow is a waste, but one good thing is at least the cold is working to get those ocean temps down a bit. This could help us out later in the winter when patterns can have wild swings and more moisture is available for storms to come up the coast. Less precip issues near the coast with a colder ocean 😀

  41. Alsionarod – yes, I have officially thrown in the towal on tomorrow night and after just seeing the 12z GFS, I’d be surprised if Boston or we here in northern CT see anything more than flurries from this.

    No more snow opportunities for the next 7 days, but I continue to be intrigued about a snow threat for next weekend in the 2/2-2/3 time frame. After the initial rain storm goes west of us midweek, a large dome of cold air will sink into the eastern US in its wake and the trailing cold front will elongate itself off the eastern seaboard. Could be a wave of low pressure originating in the Gulf and riding up the coast along the frontal boundary. The 0z Euro at hr 240 displays the setup nicely:

    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

    The GFS painted a similar scenario yesterday but the 12Z run is more progressive. In any event, I think next weekend is a timeframe to watch.

    1. The GFS was right this time around. What concerns me about what you posted is that large dome of cold air that is destined to sink into new england. It’s this dome of cold air that is likely to once again act as a shield against such storms. That setup depicted on the oz EURO looks awesome. If only that came to fruition. If the GFS is already becoming more progressive, I’d take the GFS on this one due to that PV that will likely kick out any potential east coast storms. We shall see and I’ll try to keep the faith 😀

      1. True, but the GFS usually stinks at this time frame. If you recall, the GFS had us getting a snowstorm this weekend at 7 days out. Bottom line is that it is too far out to know what is going to happen, but I like the setup and the huge digging trough depicted. It favors a more northerly storm track right up the coast rather than a wave shooting east out to sea. Of course, if the PV is too far east, the whole thing will happen over the open waters. Regardless, it’s our next time period to watch and we’ll have to leave it at that for now!

        1. Actually it was the EURO that was calling for a direct hit while the GFS was consistent in keeping this non-event over the open water. But agree, we have something to watch hopefully and that is the fun of it.

          1. The GFS had a moderate-significant event as well early on. It started backing off around the time the Euro started showing that bomb moving up the coast. So yes, in this instance, you could say the GFS started getting the right idea sooner.

    1. but there is ice now and there has not been any ice all season. The skating rink my SIL put out on Sunday is now frozen enough to skate on.

    2. Wow, that is really telling. Even areas to the north that had a heavy snowpack are starting to lose it.

  43. whdh had a cool shot of a frozen Spicket River Falls in Methuen. You know it’s cold when a waterfall freezes!

  44. So here’s a question for those of us who must make business related production plans that will be greately affected by the weather. Who are we supposed to “believe” when it comes to a reliable forecast? On moday local mets can be calling for a ” slam dunk 6-12″ Friday Night that by Thursday has turned into a “nothing”. This seems to happen virtually every time the “S word” is forecast. Any chance of snow is teased on television as a potential disaster that “we must stayed tuned for.” How can any reasonable person view this as anything other than “Hyping?” I get way more sensible / sane information here than from any broadcast outlet. It is just so frustrating!

    1. It becoming like watching basketball…only worth watching the last few minutes…well, in this case, only worth looking at models a day before.

    2. This is why 99% of the time I refuse to get specific until I’m sure (and even then, as we saw Monday night) it’s still not a guarantee, but at least you have a better shot of getting something closer to right. There were people mentioning #’s on air for Friday night 2 and 3 days ago! THAT is what is wrong with the media. The ratings war to be the first to have numbers is killing the art of broadcast meteorology. In fact, it’s made a joke of it, and I can only imagine how much it eats guys up like Harvey and Barry. I know they hate it, but have to bend a certain amount to keep their jobs. It’s a shame.

      The only thing about meteorology that we can say with 100% certainty is this: Nothing about a forecast is ever 100% certain.

      2. Well Said TK.

        At least here you can give your thoughts without any outside pressures. That’s what we like about it.

        Giving snowfall numbers days in advance is lunacy.

        In the old days, there would be talk of “possible” snow.
        It wouldn’t be until the day before that numbers would be
        given.

        Btw, is it just I, or have the “potential” storms for this year
        been a forecasting nightmare? It just seems that many past events were a “little” more predictable. 😀

        1. It’s one thing to talk about amounts in a place like blog comments, or in an office between mets. I’ve been involved in many discussions involving #’s many days before an event, but we always understood if it was the “in this case” scenario and also it was not going out to the public only to confuse them. The general public is being bombarded with 14 temperatures in every forecast, so of course they remember the day 7 ones best. Throw snowfall amounts on top of those and all you have is a big mess, figuratively speaking of course. 😛

  46. Not that it matters now or if it will matter the rest of the Winter, but
    the Water temperature at the buoy 16 Miles East of Boston has responded.

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Jan 24 2013, 12:50 pm EST
    Thu, 24 Jan 2013 12:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 16.3 °F (-8.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 3.0 °F (-16.1 °C)
    Wind: Northwest at 26.8 MPH (23.33 KT)
    Wind Chill: -3 F (-19 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1017.5 mb
    Water Temperature: 42.8 °F (6.0 °C)
    Wave Height: 1.1 m (3.61 ft)
    Dominant Period: 4 sec
    Average Period: 3.8 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: Northwest (317 °)

    1. On a relative basis, I bet that water feels mild/warm to the touch if you’re bare hand were exposed to the air for a few minutes today.

    2. I am thinking of driving to see Cape Cod Bay this weekend. Looking at the webcams, some ice has formed maybe out to about 50ft away from the tideline. Its neat, when the tide comes in, it will hit the edge of the ice and then about an hour later, at the tide line, the water will start pouring through the back edge of the ice closest to shore.

  47. Was just speaking with a client who lives in Hanover NH. He does a lot of snowmobiling. No snow at all this year to speak of and trails are currently closed. They are forecast to be in the 40s next wednesday with rain.

  48. CPC 6-10 & 8-14 both put New England in below normal temps and above normal precip. More pronounced on the 8-14 than on the 6-10. I am not surprised, and I also agree with them, including (for once) on the above normal precip potential. Still think the overall regime is drier than normal and that will continue into the coming summer. But that does not mean we cannot see periods of wetter and/or snowy weather.

    1. So are these rain events a “given” this far out, or will start seeing “colder model runs” come in days ahead and get back to 500+ comments. 🙂

    2. I’m looking forward to seeing what happens across the US in March when the stronger sun begins to shine on much of the dry ground in the US. Well, looking forward is a bad saying, maybe its …. Whats going to happen when the stronger sun comes back ?

  50. I think unless the US gets some precip very soon it’s going to be a very bad situation. I pray the the areas that need rain get it bc it’s gonna get ugly.

  52. man i want some natural snow on the slopes sick of the fake stuff. some of my farorite trails in new england are closed

    this winter is reminding me of the one about 5 years ago when we had extreme cold but the storms either went out to sea or to our west. maybe be were goin in 3 to 5 year sycles?

  53. Interesting comment from Joe Lundberg on the little clipper that exited the mid Atlantic coast last night. It is explosively developing over the open waters of the Atlantic and the NAM/GFS project the pressure to drop to below 932mb which is a monster storm! Stronger than Sandy. It is that storm which is going to be a big factor in keeping the storm tomorrow night from quickly gaining strength as it moves to our south.

  54. Mike wankum said we are still getting some light snow tomorrow. Maybe an inch in Boston and maybe a few down here. I’m going to a hockey game in providence tomorrow night, does anybody know what time on the snow. Or do you still think no snow.

    1. John I thought someone said after midnight but that was a day or two ago so am not sure. Have fun at the game

  55. The storm has been further downgraded with a chance for coatings to as much as an inch of snow all the way down to the canal. The extreme outer cape may see an inch or two of fluffy snow. It’s likely Boston is mostly cloudy with peeks of moonshine and scattered flurries that don’t amount to more than a light dusting. What a complete and utter bust!

    1. You don’t think Boston sees an inch. Do you know the Time on whatever we get. As much as I want the overtime not sure what time I’ll be back from game. It would suck getting called in from Rhode island.

      1. John. I do not believe Boston sees more than a light dusting so there won’t be any plowing done around here and likely not even down on the Cape. However, cruises could be out salting and sanding at most. IF it were to start to snow in and around Boston, it would occur very late at night Friday night and more likely after midnight before ending very early Saturday morning.

        1. Idk arod I saw plows plowing that last inch we had a few days ago, my plow guy has to get an ok from me everytime,, haha he’s only plowed once and it looks like everyone’s else’s parking lot except little snow banks, not wasting my money

          1. Between the city of Boston and the town of Brookine there is already more than enough salt over the streets and sidewalks to handle any snow that falls Friday overnight. I hope crews don’t waste more of our tax dollars on this mostly OTS system.

          2. Charlie. That is because they were expecting a storm. In this case, it is well known that there will be no storm.

            1. Idk I think they were looking at radar saying crap!! Put the plows down! Idk I just see alot of wasted money

                1. Not my place. Like I said before safety is key. We did not need any equipment Monday just salt and shovels. We had it all out ready. We did not even need the walk behind brush.

  56. TK, you mentioned above that you agree with the latest CPC outlook of below normal temps and above precip, but the NAO is projected to be positive through mid-February…assuming I read the chart correctly.

    So how do you expect any kind of snow event during a +NAO phase?

  57. Philip, you don’t need a negative NAO to have a snow event here. October 2011 snowstorm and the nor’easter on 12/29 are a couple examples of where we got a decent snowstorm without a negative NAO.

    2. Hey Mark, I believe you are correct regarding the 12/29/12 storm, but IIRC the October 2011 storm occured when the NAO was slightly negative.

    1. Boston’s current dew point is -15, incredibly dry. Would take hours to moisten that enough to get measurable snowfall. Combined with the lack of moisture being drawn into the region. I am not sure why the NWS is calling for any amounts other than the cape and islands.

  62. Ummmm plenty of major snowstorms had a positive NAO superstorm 93 and Many more I could list. Not necessary to have -NAO to get major storm. It helps for sure.

  63. Check this current observation from Mt Washington:

    ICE FOG
    Temp -27
    Dewpoint-27
    Humidity 100%
    Wind NW72G82
    Wind Chill -76
    Visibility 1/16 mi

    Can’t even imagine the sideways rime ice forming on those towers right now. Wonder who the lucky sole will be to go out there and chip that crap off!

  64. Non weather related but was wondering if anyone knew anything about the proposed South Coast rail? I had never heard of it before but apparently its a project to extend the commuter rail south from Stoughton into fall river and new bedford. Does anyone know if that will actually happen? Only reason I ask is bc the house I put an offer on in easton, the old colonial railway used to run alongside the house and that would be the rail they would use. Def dont want the commuter rail running literally in my backyard.

  65. I do not think anyone sees any accumulation Friday night, crazy how 4 days ago a reliable model was showing a major snow event and we arnt gonna see a flake, goodnight all

  66. After a brief warmup for a few days next week, 0z GFS is cold again for the long haul and active with snow threats on 1/31, 2/3, 2/6, and 2/8. I’m liking the upcoming pattern and think we are going to make up for the January snow deficit and then some in February.

      1. You’ve been right about alot Charlie, but I’m going to disagree on this one.

        Winter can still see the club house over its shoulder as it walks out on the front 9, in fact probably around 5. There is along way to go, and the moderating trend will be over by Thursday. Predominant pattern is now colder than normal.

Comments are closed.